Official 2022 ratings thread.

Creighton

Professional
Yes I would agree that TR is low In my case. It has me back at 4.0 after getting dq’d after sectionals this year. Looks like TR has only 2 guys on my National runner up team getting bumped lol

We obviously weren't a nationals team, but we went 2-2 at districts and according to TR zero guys on my team are being bumped. Seems unlikely.
 

marshaman

New User
I suspect TR is actively altering their algorithms to account for apparent shortfalls. My TR rating rose 0.17 four months after I played my last match in mid July.
 

ChaelAZ

G.O.A.T.
I think it's more for computer rated players that are on the bubble. If you are in that borderline area, the difference is more about having competitive matches earlier or later in the tournament. Getting bumped out of a level doesn't mean you dominate everyone in that level.

Wondering how this will play out for me. TR has my close to a bump, we won our area, sectionals and team went to nationals. Throw in folks saying TR is .1 to .2 low, that would put me over.

Yup. On the 3.5 women's team that came in 2nd at Nationals: Last I checked, TR has only 3 of the 17 members getting a bump. (the same team 1/2 the members also made it to Nats at 40+ making it to semifinals if I recall correctly.

My guess ... nearly the entire team gets bumped.
I'll go on record saying 10 will be bumped up, and I may even be a little low for teams that make semis at Nationals. @OnTheLine report back in a few days and let us know which is closer :unsure:

Same for our team. Only a a few show a high enough rating to be bumped, but team finished top 10 after nationals, sooooo....hmmm....wondering how many will get bumped.

countingvotes-lets.gif
 

ChaelAZ

G.O.A.T.
And just checking email, I see TR sent out an email at midnight last night. Not sure if anyone mentioned this yet, but it said:


Nationals are winding down and the end of the year is quickly approaching. With that the end of the year ratings will be getting released. We are working on our preliminary end of the year ratings which should be released shortly. Remember, these are just estimates and it has always been the case that there are more bump ups than bump downs. What this typically means is that those on the edge of being bumped up are more likely to have that happen than those on the edge of being bumped down. Bump downs are less likely to occur and usually only happen when a rating is significantly below level. Players on teams advancing far into the playoffs and/or to nationals for the adult league also have a tendency to get bumped more often compared to those that do not.​
 

J_R_B

Hall of Fame
I suspect TR is actively altering their algorithms to account for apparent shortfalls. My TR rating rose 0.17 four months after I played my last match in mid July.
It looks like they added some kind of credibility calculation that recognizes that they have been way off in the past and attempts to correct for it in the projected year end DNTRP
 

silverwyvern4

Semi-Pro
Wondering how this will play out for me. TR has my close to a bump, we won our area, sectionals and team went to nationals. Throw in folks saying TR is .1 to .2 low, that would put me over.




Same for our team. Only a a few show a high enough rating to be bumped, but team finished top 10 after nationals, sooooo....hmmm....wondering how many will get bumped.

countingvotes-lets.gif
I thought if you go to nationals, half your team gets bumped automatically?
 

GummiiBear

Semi-Pro
It looks like I will likely get bumped down. Though I suppose since I self-rated for my first League participation, arguably not. I’m at the borderline (.0051 under Dynamic, according to TR).

This may be a stupid question, but - if I were to get bumped down even if I don’t think that I should, but that’s fine - I can’t be subject to DQ if I were to play “too well” at the bumped down level, right?
 

silverwyvern4

Semi-Pro
It looks like I will likely get bumped down. Though I suppose since I self-rated for my first League participation, arguably not. I’m at the borderline (.0051 under Dynamic, according to TR).

This may be a stupid question, but - if I were to get bumped down even if I don’t think that I should, but that’s fine - I can’t be subject to DQ if I were to play “too well” at the bumped down level, right?
Computer rated players not subject to strikes. But if you appeal down, appeal players can get strikes.
 

schmke

Legend
I thought if you go to nationals, half your team gets bumped automatically?
Nope, not true. Individual players get bumped up or not based on how they do in their matches, and being Nationals where better players are, many that go do get bumped up. But there is no blanket rule. In fact, the teams that don't do so well at Nationals typically have very few players bumped up.

Now, there is the move-up/split-up rule for Nationals teams where no more than 3 players from a Nationals team can play on the same team in the following year unless the team is playing at the next higher level. This does not mean all, or even half the players on the team are bumped up though.
 

emit520

New User
Separate question, and apologies if this answer is obvious/answered already!

If a member on our team gets rated up, I am aware they are still able to finish any matches left in the session they originally started before the rated up. My question is then if the team he was part of makes regionals/districts etc., is the member that got rated up disqualified from joining that team even though they played a session with them?
 

J011yroger

Talk Tennis Guru
Separate question, and apologies if this answer is obvious/answered already!

If a member on our team gets rated up, I am aware they are still able to finish any matches left in the session they originally started before the rated up. My question is then if the team he was part of makes regionals/districts etc., is the member that got rated up disqualified from joining that team even though they played a session with them?

Different for each section.

J
 

schmke

Legend
Separate question, and apologies if this answer is obvious/answered already!

If a member on our team gets rated up, I am aware they are still able to finish any matches left in the session they originally started before the rated up. My question is then if the team he was part of makes regionals/districts etc., is the member that got rated up disqualified from joining that team even though they played a session with them?
Depends on the section.

Some (Southern at least) allow players that are bumped up to continue to play on the lower level early start team through Sectionals. Others allow the player to play at their lower level through the end of 2021 but after that they must play at their bumped up level. In both cases, the player is not eligible to play at Nationals next year at their lower rating.
 

Creighton

Professional
Depends on the section.

Some (Southern at least) allow players that are bumped up to continue to play on the lower level early start team through Sectionals. Others allow the player to play at their lower level through the end of 2021 but after that they must play at their bumped up level. In both cases, the player is not eligible to play at Nationals next year at their lower rating.

Have you ever analyzed if this gives the ESL teams an advantage at Southern sectionals? The Arkansas state coordinator was fervent that those leagues gave no advantage over teams in the traditional start period.
 

Moveforwardalways

Hall of Fame
Have you ever analyzed if this gives the ESL teams an advantage at Southern sectionals? The Arkansas state coordinator was fervent that those leagues gave no advantage over teams in the traditional start period.

I seriously doubt there is any advantage. Most places do this for the purposes of court availability vs number of players, not for any tactical advantage.
 

schmke

Legend
Have you ever analyzed if this gives the ESL teams an advantage at Southern sectionals? The Arkansas state coordinator was fervent that those leagues gave no advantage over teams in the traditional start period.
And the Arkansas state coordinator is misinformed or just giving you the party line.

I haven't done a thorough analysis, but have observed that teams that won Southern Sectionals were early start teams that had a number of now bumped up players that were not eligible for Nationals.

And it is common sense that a team with players above the top of the range as of January 1 has an advantage over a team with players that all are within the level's range at the same date. It doesn't mean the non-early start teams don't end up having out of level players by Sectionals too, but their starting point is lower so yes, I'd say they are at a disadvantage.
 

J_R_B

Hall of Fame
Depends on the section.

Some (Southern at least) allow players that are bumped up to continue to play on the lower level early start team through Sectionals. Others allow the player to play at their lower level through the end of 2021 but after that they must play at their bumped up level. In both cases, the player is not eligible to play at Nationals next year at their lower rating.
I believe Middle States lets you play out the regular season at the original level, but not any playoff round.
 

ttwarrior1

Hall of Fame
i was told if i join a team today as a 4.0 and if i get bumped up tonight to a 4.5 i can still play as a 4.0 even in the state tournament, not sure if thats just a usta southern thing or what or brand new

meaning, we have a league registering now to start on jan 2nd
 

Moon Shooter

Hall of Fame
TR still hasn't listed my mixed double matches from November 7th. They did get 3 matches that were played in October but did not predict anything for me.

Is there some new prediction or is it just the dial that has been up all year?

This is a chart I did a number of years ago using my ratings showing the number of players in tenth of a point buckets.

RatingsHistogram.png

You can see at 2.5 and 3.0 there are more players at the top of each range than the bottom by a pretty wide margin.

At 3.5 it is pretty balanced, but note that this chart included men and women so there is a peak of 3.0/3.5 women overlaid with the peak of 3.5/4.0 men.

At 4.0 there are more in the lower part of the range, but again this is in part due to men and women in the same chart. Clearly at 4.5 and above there are more at the lower end which is what I was saying earlier.


Shouldn't 2.5 be the middle? I don't think I understand the chart.
 

OnTheLine

Hall of Fame
i was told if i join a team today as a 4.0 and if i get bumped up tonight to a 4.5 i can still play as a 4.0 even in the state tournament, not sure if thats just a usta southern thing or what or brand new

meaning, we have a league registering now to start on jan 2nd

That is odd ... our section does not allow sign ups for leagues that begin in January until the day AFTER new ratings are announced. Surprised a section would do that. Just wait a week to have the registration start ...
 

schmke

Legend
TR still hasn't listed my mixed double matches from November 7th. They did get 3 matches that were played in October but did not predict anything for me.

Is there some new prediction or is it just the dial that has been up all year?




Shouldn't 2.5 be the middle? I don't think I understand the chart.
The horizontal axis is the dynamic rating split into buckets on the tenths, and the vertical axis is the number of players in each bucket.
 

Moon Shooter

Hall of Fame
Tennis record didnt update the page for individual match logs but they are calculated into their year end predictions

For me it was the opposite. I played 5 matches - although 2 were on november 7 so I am not sure if they count. TR has 3 matches for me as an individual and no matches for me in the year end predictions.


I know the official party line is that USTA and Tennis record have nothing to do with each other. But does anyone know who is running tennis record? I would think they know a bit about USTA and how the ratings and tennis link website works so they can scrape the information.
 

Vox Rationis

Professional
i was told if i join a team today as a 4.0 and if i get bumped up tonight to a 4.5 i can still play as a 4.0 even in the state tournament, not sure if thats just a usta southern thing or what or brand new

meaning, we have a league registering now to start on jan 2nd
Not in Kentucky. That’s only for the southern states with early start leagues (GA, AR, AL I think). January isn’t an early start league.
 

time_fly

Hall of Fame
I seriously doubt there is any advantage. Most places do this for the purposes of court availability vs number of players, not for any tactical advantage.

In our area of New England, the fall early start leagues are a way to draw players back indoors onto paid courts after they have mostly been playing outdoors for free in the summer. There is a 10 day grace period after new ratings are released so that there are no sudden lineup changes needed for matches that were already planned, but then players need to play at their new levels.
 

Goof

Professional
Anyone know how ******* does it now for mid-season bump ups? 8 years ago I got bumped up to 4.5 mid-season and wasn't allowed to play any more matches at 4.0. This year, I have a teammate who is extremely likely to get bumped up, and we are halfway through our current session. Has ******* changed how they do it, and will he be allowed to finish out the session?
 

Goof

Professional
Anyone know how ******* does it now for mid-season bump ups? 8 years ago I got bumped up to 4.5 mid-season and wasn't allowed to play any more matches at 4.0. This year, I have a teammate who is extremely likely to get bumped up, and we are halfway through our current session. Has ******* changed how they do it, and will he be allowed to finish out the session?

Mid West is what got censored out for some reason.
 

MegacedU

Professional
How big does the sample size has to be for a self-rated player to get bumped up? For instance if a self rated player played 3 doubles matches prior to the Nov 15 deadline and won them all, but that is the only match history, I wonder the likelihood of being bumped up from such a limited history.
 

Matthew ATX

Semi-Pro
How big does the sample size has to be for a self-rated player to get bumped up? For instance if a self rated player played 3 doubles matches prior to the Nov 15 deadline and won them all, but that is the only match history, I wonder the likelihood of being bumped up from such a limited history.
When I first self-rated at 4.0, I played three matches and got bumped. Was able to appeal that bump and get a full year at 4.0 before getting bumped again.
Edit: Just checked and I played four, going 3-1.
 

BallBag

Professional
If you are a self rate and get bumped after 3 matches, shouldn't those count as 3 strikes and get you DQ'ed mid season?
 
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