Australian Open 2022 Final: Rafael Nadal vs Daniil Medvedev

weakera · Jan 28, 2022

I honestly don't feel confident. Medvedev looks like he's in great form. Some keys for Nadal, keep serving gutsy and big on 2nd serves (gotta just take your chances), use the slice and don't feed pace unless you're in position to end the point, and come to the net. Opposite strategy of running Berrettini around and bombing him into the corner on backhand side.

I will predict Nadal in 5, because I think the moment can hopefully power him through. But no result would really surprise me.

ACE of Hearts · Jan 28, 2022

I am surprised no one has asked med about his country and that crisis.

aldeayeah · Jan 28, 2022

NeutralFan said:
I expect the same outcome. Rafa can't hit through him and will get tired after two sets. I see 2019 like match.

Conditions should be a bit faster on Sunday though, not sure how that will change the play dynamics.

El_Yotamo · Jan 28, 2022

Rafa needs to break out the S&V, and go high risk on the serves. If he sticks to trying to play the way he played Matteo today he's gonna get burned. However, I believe he's smarter than that. Med is gonna serve huge as well, so Rafa's returns need to be sharp, especially in the early stages of sets. This is one of those matches where Nadal needs to break thrice and just try and keep rolling on serve. Will he do that 3 sets in a row? Almost certainly no. But can he do it 3 out of 5 sets? Hopefully, in fact I believe he can

NeutralFan · Jan 28, 2022

aldeayeah said:
Conditions should be a bit faster on Sunday though, not sure how that will change the play dynamics.

Will it be outdoor ? What's the forecast ?

Yugram · Jan 28, 2022

El_Yotamo said:
Rafa needs to break out the S&V, and go high risk on the serves. If he sticks to trying to play the way he played Matteo today he's gonna get burned. However, I believe he's smarter than that. Med is gonna serve huge as well, so Rafa's returns need to be sharp, especially in the early stages of sets

Who you’ve got winning?

ACE of Hearts · Jan 28, 2022

weakera said:
I honestly don't feel confident. Medvedev looks like he's in great form. Some keys for Nadal, keep serving gutsy and big on 2nd serves (gotta just take your chances), use the slice and don't feed pace unless you're in position to end the point, and come to the net. Opposite strategy of running Berrettini around and bombing him into the corner on backhand side.

I will predict Nadal in 5, because I think the moment can hopefully power him through. But no result would really surprise me.

Nadal has not shot if he doesn’t serve well. I think he has to be aggressive as well. He will be on the defensive side. Don’t know if that’s a great tactical idea.

Backspin1183 · Jan 28, 2022

NeutralFan said:
Will it be outdoor ? What's the forecast ?

It's expected to be outdoor.

aldeayeah · Jan 28, 2022

NeutralFan said:
Will it be outdoor ? What's the forecast ?

Pretty much perfect weather. Warm but not too hot, breezy but not windy. High humidity though.

Melbourne Weather Hourly For Today | Detailed Forecast

Find out the Melbourne Weather Hourly Forecast here on Weatherzone. Discover the weather forecast for the next 48 hours in Melbourne.

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This site has a cloudier prediction, still low rain %

Melbourne Forecast

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Deleted member 762343 · Jan 28, 2022

Backspin1183 said:
I would like Rafa to win the first set so the pi**ing themselves part is done by another fanbase.

Eh, it’s a bit of a lose lose situation for Djoko fans. Either he loses the #1 spot or gets surpassed in the slam race, so there’s little to be scared about. They will just take the popcorn and enjoy the show.

weakera · Jan 28, 2022

ACE of Hearts said:
Nadal has not shot if he doesn’t serve well. I think he has to be aggressive as well. He will be on the defensive side. Don’t know if that’s a great tactical idea.

In this tournament, Nadal has faced 21 break points and been broken 5 times.
Medvedev has faced 33 break points and been broken 7 times.

NeutralFan · Jan 28, 2022

Backspin1183 said:
It's expected to be outdoor.

Hope so , my only worry is Med will make it a gruelling match and make him tired.

Jonas78 · Jan 28, 2022

Moscow mule in straights.

El_Yotamo · Jan 28, 2022

Yugram said:
Who you’ve got winning?

I'm split between Rafa in 4/5 and Med in 4/5. It's tough to call. Leaning Nadal, but if Rafa was in 2019 form I'd be a lot more confident that's for sure.

TheAssassin · Jan 28, 2022

He pulled off a Djokovicesque comeback in the quarterfinal. Time for another tribute to our deported warrior in the final. First take away that eternally injured guy's legs, and then his soul. Come on Mad Lad, whatever it takes...

Backspin1183 · Jan 28, 2022

NeutralFan said:
Hope so , my only worry is Med will make it a gruelling match and make him tired.

There's no escaping that. It will be a long match. Rafa's got to be ready for a marathon.

Checkmate · Jan 28, 2022

NeutralFan said:
I expect the same outcome. Rafa can't hit through him and will get tired after two sets. I see 2019 like match.

Also, the match up contrast.

Rafa played a player who couldn't hit a backhand.

Now he would face an opponent who wouldn't miss a backhand.

If rafa comes Down the Line-zoning ready, then it could all go his way.

ACE of Hearts · Jan 28, 2022

weakera said:
In this tournament, Nadal has faced 21 break points and been broken 5 times.
Medvedev has faced 33 break points and been broken 7 times.

That’s my point keep a high percentage.

RG GOD · Jan 28, 2022

Nadal in 3 sets.
H2H 3-1 is clear.

Yugram · Jan 28, 2022

weakera said:
In this tournament, Nadal has faced 21 break points and been broken 5 times.
Medvedev has faced 33 break points and been broken 7 times.

This while Medvedev was facing some of the worst returners on tour in Cressy and Kyrgios.

weakera · Jan 28, 2022

Mannarino was great prep for Medvedev in theory. Mannarino was painting in that first set and Nadal survived by killing pace with his slices, it's hard to send back a low, flat ball off of a slice. Needs to break that out in the final which of course is counter intuitive to his typical topspin strategy.

D.Nalby12 · Jan 28, 2022

Imperator said:
Eh, it’s a bit of a lose lose situation for Djoko fans. Either he loses the #1 spot or gets surpassed in the slam race, so there’s little to be scared about. They will just take the popcorn and enjoy the show.

No big deal if he loses #1 spot. He owns the record already. And there is no threat to that.

BeatlesFan · Jan 28, 2022

aldeayeah said:
Rafa should come to the net a ton like he did in USO 2019, but that's a physically taxing strategy.

Rafa came to net 66 times in a long five setter. In fact Med came in more than Nadal...72 times.

lud · Jan 28, 2022

phl92 said:
It's kind of unbelievable.. there is Djokovic out, and immediately comes in Nadal trying to reach the 21st title... Which other sport is so competitive between 3 people over such a time? I really can't believe it.

Messi vs CR7

NeutralFan · Jan 28, 2022

Checkmate said:
Also, the match up contrast.

Rafa played a player who couldn't hit a backhand.

Now he would face an opponent who wouldn't miss a backhand.

If rafa comes Down the Line-zoning ready, then it could all go his way.

I don't think Rafa can redline like FAA , it's never his game. Med's passing shot has improved so Serve and volley would be suicidal.

NatF · Jan 28, 2022

Med will be too physical for Nadal I think unless he lays another egg.

ForehandCross · Jan 28, 2022

Yugram said:
Who you think is the favourite?

50-50.

People will go by level, but I see a huge pattern developing against Medvedev. He goes deep in every service game and Felix and Stef many times just shut him off easily many times with inspired net play.

And Nadal is better than either can hope to be in doing that.

Nadal is playing highly aggressive and his heaviness really hurts Med.

However the match will actually depend on Medvedev's serve.

Since he gets in every return game, he also throws some service games away after putting in successful / unsuccessful effort. They are few in number, but are pattern wise regular.

If he can hold Nadal off on those points, he wins. If he can't he loses.

pepka · Jan 28, 2022

Rafa wins, he gets to be a leader with 21. Med wins, he gets the no.1 spot. Either way... ***** loses

El_Yotamo · Jan 28, 2022

weakera said:
Mannarino was great prep for Medvedev in theory. Mannarino was painting in that first set and Nadal survived by killing pace with his slices, it's hard to send back a low, flat ball off of a slice. Needs to break that out in the final which of course is counter intuitive to his typical topspin strategy.

Yes, but that won't be enough. Needs to serve huge and pressure Medvedev on the return

aldeayeah · Jan 28, 2022

BeatlesFan said:
Rafa came to net 66 times in a long five setter. In fact Med came in more than Nadal...72 times.

that's still a big lot for Nadal on non-grass

Nadal_King · Jan 28, 2022

Expecting a really Epic Match, this is a Big 3 player on his worst Slam atleast in a final and a new grand slam champion. It promises to be an Epic way bigger than Uso 2019 I feel. I don't see Rafa winning it easy although in a scenario Medvedev can do that but with Rafa you would think he will give his life on court to get a second Ao title

weakera · Jan 28, 2022

El_Yotamo said:
Yes, but that won't be enough. Needs to serve huge and pressure Medvedev on the return

Biggest key to the match is Rafa's serve. He will have break chances against Medvedev simply because he's Rafa, the greatest returner in history. But can he limit chances for Medvedev like he did in the beginning and end of the QF/SF when he smothered Shapo and Bert?

aman92 · Jan 28, 2022

Which is the main thread??

Backspin1183 · Jan 28, 2022

NatF said:
Med will be too physical for Nadal I think unless he lays another egg.

It will be very physical for Rafa. That being said, Nadal usually has an upper hand in most of their baseline rallies, even indoors. If he can get a lot of Med's serves back in play, he can put him under a lot of pressure early on.

Checkmate · Jan 28, 2022

NeutralFan said:
I don't think Rafa can redline like FAA , it's never his game. Med's passing shot has improved so Serve and volley would be suicidal.

Rafa did unleash DTL forehand quite a few times last clay season, especially against Zverev and Djokovic in Rome and got big succ

Yugram · Jan 28, 2022

ForehandCross said:
50-50.

People will go by level, but I see a huge pattern developing against Medvedev. He goes deep in every service game and Felix and Stef many times just shut him off easily many times with inspired net play.

And Nadal is better than either can hope to be in doing that.

Nadal is playing highly aggressive and his heaviness really hurts Med.

However the match will actually depend on Medvedev's serve.

Since he gets in every return game, he also throws some service games away after putting in successful / unsuccessful effort. They are few in number, but are pattern wise regular.

If he can hold Nadal off on those points, he wins. If he can't he loses.

I think Medvedev will need to pull out another 0-2 comeback in order to win. Not much he can do while Nadal will blitzkrieg in first 2 sets.

D.Nalby12 · Jan 28, 2022

This is official thread.

El_Yotamo · Jan 28, 2022

weakera said:
Biggest key to the match is Rafa's serve. He will have break chances against Medvedev simply because he's Rafa, the greatest returner in history. But can he limit chances for Medvedev like he did in the beginning and end of the QF/SF when he smothered Shapo and Bert?

Here's to hoping he does. And in doing so let's also hope he doesn't have too big a slump midmatch

Sabrina · Jan 28, 2022

If Nadal wants to win, he should wrap it up in 3-4 sets under 3 hours at max. He would not be able to escape one more time like Us Open 2019.

AnOctorokForDinner · Jan 28, 2022

Madladev in four. C'mon man, you can do it. The whole field is yours, feeble as it is. Go smack the fools for fun.

5.0 in 3.0 Body Guy · Jan 28, 2022

I honestly don't believe this a good matchup for Rafa.
Rafa loves to go his forehand to his opponents backhand.
This means "strength to strength" against Med.
I don't think Rafa (on this fast a court) will be able to break Med's backhand down.
Plus, I think Med will have an easier time holding his serve.

wang07 · Jan 28, 2022

Med in 4. Wouldn't be shocked if it's in straights and a massive reality check for Nadal, just like 3 years ago. For a somewhat well playing Nadal this should've been a free pass to the final and yet he barely made it. He just doesn't have it on HC anymore to take it to the best of the best, and it will show on Sunday. Medvedev to be crowned as a fully deserved #1.

NeutralFan · Jan 28, 2022

Checkmate said:
Rafa did unleash DTL forehand quite a few times last clay season, especially against Zverev and Djokovic in Rome and got big succ

yeah but none can frustrate him like Medvedev and Djokovic can ( with their defense )

mike danny · Jan 28, 2022

aman92 said:
Which is the main thread??

This one was first and has the most posts so far. This should be it.

Sentinel · Jan 28, 2022

aman92 said:
Which is the main thread??

They'll merge the threads.
But only one poll will remain.

Sampras-Bruguera 1993 · Jan 28, 2022

Nadal for GOAT in 4. The Us open I knew Djoker wouldn’t get it done as his level was the craps there. Nadal is playing good enough here to seal it

ForehandCross · Jan 28, 2022

Yugram said:
I think Medvedev will need to pull out another 0-2 comeback in order to win. Not much he can do while Nadal will blitzkrieg in first 2 sets.

Let's see what happens. It really is crucial for Med to win one of the first two sets though!

May the best man win!!

aman92 · Jan 28, 2022

5.0 in 3.0 Body Guy said:
I honestly don't believe this a good matchup for Rafa.
Rafa loves to go his forehand to his opponents backhand.
This means "strength to strength" against Med.
I don't think Rafa (on this fast a court) will be able to break Med's backhand down.
Plus, I think Med will have an easier time holding his serve.

Nadal owns the head to head though

Vamos Rafa Nadal · Jan 28, 2022

Rooting for Rafa of course and predicting he will prevail but honestly it could go either way. Will Medvedev for the second Grand Slam in a row deny one of the big 3 their 21st Grand Slam? Or will Rafa be the first to reach #21? I sure hope for the latter but they are both playing great. Rafa and Daniil are the two best problem solvers but Rafa of course has way more experience at finals.

Medvedev imo has the best player in the world over the past 5-6 months (Djokovic fans, relax, this is my opinion: Daniil has simply played better than Novak since Wimbledon 2021) and he will become the #1 player in the rankings if he wins the final, but Rafa has a 20-8 record in Grand Slam finals and has played such a great tournament, playing his very best level at his semi.

Put simply: I want Rafa to win but so long as he makes a valiant effort and does his very best I am happy!

NatF · Jan 28, 2022

Backspin1183 said:
It will be very physical for Rafa. That being said, Nadal usually has an upper hand in most of their baseline rallies, even indoors. If he can get a lot of Med's serves back in play, he can put him under a lot of pressure early on.

Nadal tends to struggle in long matches these days, he'll need a strong start so that he can conserve energy potentially later on. Med should make a lot of returns and force him to play so I do think once the third and fourth sets roll around Nadal is going to find it hard to maintain top level intensity. Depends how well Med serves too. We'll see...I do think Med is the favourite on form but Nadal has a champion mentality that Medvedev has only shown glimpses of. Even now Nadal can flip that switch in terms of shotmaking on key points so he'll always be dangerous.

Australian Open 2022 Final: Rafael Nadal vs Daniil Medvedev

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Nadal in 5

Med in 3

Med in 4

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