Top 20 Australian Open Contenders

Sleepers: Mikahal Youzzney, Sam Querry
Coming out party: Jo-Wilfred Tonsaga--took a set off Roddick I think
Going Home Early--Rafa Nadal
Champion--ANDY MURRAY
 
Sleepers: Mikahal Youzzney, Sam Querry
Coming out party: Jo-Wilfred Tonsaga--took a set off Roddick I think
Going Home Early--Rafa Nadal
Champion--ANDY MURRAY


all legit except for calling Youzhny a sleeper. That's humorous.

Tsonga should have been up 2 sets on Roddick last year.
 

Aabye

Professional
I kind of agree with Topaz here, I mean just he lost to Santoro. Since he has beaten him before, it seems to me it was not Santoro funky shots that bewildered him, but something else. But at the same time you made a great point on your site that when James is on, he is on. Now, however he is at the mercy of the draw. Should he land in Rafa's quarter he might just do some damage.
 
I kind of agree with Topaz here, I mean just he lost to Santoro. Since he has beaten him before, it seems to me it was not Santoro funky shots that bewildered him, but something else. But at the same time you made a great point on your site that when James is on, he is on. Now, however he is at the mercy of the draw. Should he land in Rafa's quarter he might just do some damage.

all good points, especially the last two about mercy of the draw and being in Rafa's quarter. His seed shout pit him with an extremely tough match in the fourth round (if he makes it there -- he could have a very tough 3rd round match as well against someone around 20th).
 

tintin

Professional
I know! But I was actually thinking about this after seeing him bow out this week...I don't think he is ever going to have another year like the '06 season, and the reason is not because of his game, but his head! He is the Mauresmo of the men's tour (and I say this as a huge fan of Mauresmo!).

Needless to say, if I'm wrong, that'd be great! :)

Mauresmo made the finals in Australia in 1999 at 19 and has made the Quarters or better in ALL 4 slams unlike Blake and she's 2-1 in slam finals.That's an insults really to even compare the two of them.Mauresmo should be compared to D.Nalbandian imo.
 
Mauresmo made the finals in Australia in 1999 at 19 and has made the Quarters or better in ALL 4 slams unlike Blake and she's 2-1 in slam finals.That's an insults really to even compare the two of them.Mauresmo should be compared to D.Nalbandian imo.


re-read the post you responded to. It had nothing to do with results, it had to do with their mental states.
 

Aabye

Professional
his results at Grand Slams are as bad as Blake's, but unlike Blake, he came on strong in the second half of last season and he's off to a perfect start in 2008.

#11: Mikhail Youzhny

Ah, come now, I like James better, but Mikhail has, in fact, gotten to a semi. Giving him #11 is a good idea, because he too will be pretty dependent on the draw. He does not have Blake's forehand (although that backhand is very nice) so he could fall should he run into any top seed other than maybe Rafa (but in best of five that is no given).
 
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Topaz

Legend
Mauresmo made the finals in Australia in 1999 at 19 and has made the Quarters or better in ALL 4 slams unlike Blake and she's 2-1 in slam finals.That's an insults really to even compare the two of them.Mauresmo should be compared to D.Nalbandian imo.

re-read the post you responded to. It had nothing to do with results, it had to do with their mental states.

Yes, as Dimonator suggested, I was thinking more 'mental' state when I made the comparison. However, results *are* an indicator of mental state, are they not? Hmmm, so you raise a good point!

Would it be fair to even compare Amelie to Nalbandian then...with his continued grand slam disappointments? He also has yet to produce comparably to Amelie.

But again, the bottom line I was trying to make...was that the thing I see as holding Blake back the most is his head, not his technical game per say.
 
He finally had a breakout Slam at Wimbledon last year, and he qualified for the year-end Masters Cup. A minor setback this week should be cause for a little concern, but the talent is there for a deep run in Australia (but also for an early loss!).

#10: Richard Gasquet
 
So if he is going to reach the QF shouldn´t he be ranked somewhere between 5th and 8th? I would rank him a bit higher than 9th.


yeah, I thought about that logic but at this point in the rankings we're talking about guys who have the potential to go all the way, and I think everyone would agree that Davy has no chance whatsoever of doing that.
 
He could very easily lose first round, but he could just as easily make it to the final. In fact that's exactly what happened last year, and it happened via an unprecedented display of tennis. You can't predict it to happen again, but unpredictable is exactly what this guy is.

#7: Fernando Gonzalez
 

psamp14

Hall of Fame
1.Roger Federer
2.Roger Federer
3.Roger Federer
4.Roger Federer
5.Roger Federer
6.Roger Federer
7.Roger Federer
8.Roger Federer
9.Roger Federer
10.Roger Federer
11.Roger Federer
12.Roger Federer
13.Roger Federer
14.Roger Federer
15.Roger Federer
16.Roger Federer
17.Roger Federer
18.Roger Federer
19.Roger Federer
20.Roger Federer

Need I go on? ;)

you forgot to make your darkhorse and sleeper picks...i'll do it for you:

roger federer, and roger federer :)
 

Andres

G.O.A.T.
He could very easily lose first round, but he could just as easily make it to the final. In fact that's exactly what happened last year, and it happened via an unprecedented display of tennis. You can't predict it to happen again, but unpredictable is exactly what this guy is.

#7: Fernando Gonzalez
He can catch fire at any time, and that's exactly what Fernando Gonzalez did last year at the Australian Open. The Argentine, following in the footsteps of recent surprise runner-ups Rainer Schuettler and Marcos Baghdatis, sprinted all the way to the final until finally the flame was extinguished by Roger Federer. En route to the final, however, Gonzalez re-defined the term "unstoppable."

Dim, he's chilean, not argentinian. You did the same thing with your USO picks :p
 
He can catch fire at any time, and that's exactly what Fernando Gonzalez did last year at the Australian Open. The Argentine, following in the footsteps of recent surprise runner-ups Rainer Schuettler and Marcos Baghdatis, sprinted all the way to the final until finally the flame was extinguished by Roger Federer. En route to the final, however, Gonzalez re-defined the term "unstoppable."

Dim, he's chilean, not argentinian. You did the same thing with your USO picks :p



jeeeeeez you are so right. UNbelievable.

and thanks for pointing it out so I can change it.
 

edmondsm

Legend
I'm suprised everyone is so high on Tsonga. He hasn't ever had any success at a slam, and he really wilted in his first round match against Roddick last year. I expect him to be gone by the 3rd round.
 
I'm suprised everyone is so high on Tsonga. He hasn't ever had any success at a slam, and he really wilted in his first round match against Roddick last year. I expect him to be gone by the 3rd round.


so you would rank him somewhere between 17 and 32?

I have him at 20.

Has great potential and steadily improving.
 
Didn't do much to write home about at the end of 2007, and Kooyong was just exhibition, but still winning there can't hurt. Plus the draw--and avoiding Federer's half--proved relatively kind.

#4: Andy Roddick
 

my_forehand

Professional
^^^I've just realised something...No Baghdatis? (or Safin, but I can understand)
I know your not finished but numbers 1,2 and 3 will probably go to Federer, Djokovic and Nadal respectively.
 
^^^I've just realised something...No Baghdatis? (or Safin, but I can understand)
I know your not finished but numbers 1,2 and 3 will probably go to Federer, Djokovic and Nadal respectively.


Safin I never considered. Baghdatis I considered long and hard, but obviously I had to decide on the guys I ranked around #20 a few weeks ago. If I did it over again right now Baghdatis would be in there and it would probably be Nieminen who would be out.
 
I think he's the second best player in the world -- at least on hard courts -- but his draw is just much more brutal than Nadal's. He would meet Federer in the semis instead of the final and there are a lot of potential roadblocks even before that point. Let me reiterate: without the benefit of looking at the draw, he would be #2 and Nadal would be #3.

#3: Novak Djokovic
 

my_forehand

Professional
Safin I never considered. Baghdatis I considered long and hard, but obviously I had to decide on the guys I ranked around #20 a few weeks ago. If I did it over again right now Baghdatis would be in there and it would probably be Nieminen who would be out.

Oh I see...But you have to admit, although it was an exhibition, Safin did do pretty well in Kooyong; I think he came 3rd?

I think he's the second best player in the world -- at least on hard courts -- but his draw is just much more brutal than Nadal's. He would meet Federer in the semis instead of the final and there are a lot of potential roadblocks even before that point. Let me reiterate: without the benefit of looking at the draw, he would be #2 and Nadal would be #3.

#3: Novak Djokovic

I'd agree with you that he has a tougher draw than Nadal, but in my opinion, Roddick would probably be 2nd best on hardcourts, then Djokovic.
 
Oh I see...But you have to admit, although it was an exhibition, Safin did do pretty well in Kooyong; I think he came 3rd?


True. But remember I ranked the first few contenders about 10 days ago, well before Kooyong, so Safin hadn't done anything worthwhile at that point. I still don't think I would put him in the Top 20 even now. I mean he just hasn't done anything in ages. Plus Gulbis in the first round is round. Gahhhhh that match is going to be UNbelievable.
 

superman1

Legend
too brave at 12!??!?!?! Blake is bad, but he's not THAT bad!!

Blake is ridiculously underrated on this board. He's not the most consistent performer, but look at some of his records. 3-0 against Nadal, 1-0 against Nalbandian (***** him at the Masters Cup, Nalby's favorite surface and favorite time of year), 6-0 against Davydenko (mostly straight set wins)

If he wasn't American, if he was South American or Spanish or something, everyone here would be calling him amazingly talented and such an underachiever. "He has all the shots! No weaknesses! He hits with so much pace! He's like Safin, except a better mover - he just needs to get his head on straight!"

He has the same minute chance to win as any of the top guys ranked below #1.
 

seestern

Rookie
Blake is ridiculously underrated on this board. He's not the most consistent performer, but look at some of his records. 3-0 against Nadal, 1-0 against Nalbandian (***** him at the Masters Cup, Nalby's favorite surface and favorite time of year), 6-0 against Davydenko (mostly straight set wins)

If he wasn't American, if he was South American or Spanish or something, everyone here would be calling him amazingly talented and such an underachiever. "He has all the shots! No weaknesses! He hits with so much pace! He's like Safin, except a better mover - he just needs to get his head on straight!"

He has the same minute chance to win as any of the top guys ranked below #1.

He should be an UK citizen to be called amazingly talented
 
Just look at the draw. There are no easy draws or free passes in this day and age, but this one sure looks nice. Plus he seems to be injury-free and he actually played solid tennis at the end of 2007 (and in Chennai early this year) despite having the season take a physical toll on him.

#2: Rafael Nadal
 

Zaragoza

Banned
Blake is ridiculously underrated on this board.

If he wasn't American, if he was South American or Spanish or something, everyone here would be calling him amazingly talented and such an underachiever.

Do you mean if he was Spanish like Robredo?
 

Topaz

Legend
Blake is ridiculously underrated on this board. He's not the most consistent performer, but look at some of his records. 3-0 against Nadal, 1-0 against Nalbandian (***** him at the Masters Cup, Nalby's favorite surface and favorite time of year), 6-0 against Davydenko (mostly straight set wins)

If he wasn't American, if he was South American or Spanish or something, everyone here would be calling him amazingly talented and such an underachiever. "He has all the shots! No weaknesses! He hits with so much pace! He's like Safin, except a better mover - he just needs to get his head on straight!"

He has the same minute chance to win as any of the top guys ranked below #1.

Bullocks. What has he done lately? As in, the past year or so? And, given his performances at grand slams, I think he's been treated just right, if not kindly, in this thread.
 

superman1

Legend
Bullocks. What has he done lately? As in, the past year or so? And, given his performances at grand slams, I think he's been treated just right, if not kindly, in this thread.

Let's see. He won Davis Cup. Beat Youzhny, who everyone here loves. And he's had his chances in Slams. One point goes differently and he beats Agassi at the US Open, then probably beats Ginepri in the semis and gets to the final. He had another close one with Haas last year that could have gone either way.

Robredo doesn't hit the ball like Blake, so people aren't going to drool all over him. But I remember when Almagro first came out, everyone was proclaiming him as this huge talent because he could hit such a big ball. And who beat him at the French Open?

I don't think Blake is that amazing, but I'm sick of people calling him a bad player.
 

Topaz

Legend
Let's see. He won Davis Cup. Beat Youzhny, who everyone here loves. And he's had his chances in Slams. One point goes differently and he beats Agassi at the US Open, then probably beats Ginepri in the semis and gets to the final. He had another close one with Haas last year that could have gone either way.

Robredo doesn't hit the ball like Blake, so people aren't going to drool all over him. But I remember when Almagro first came out, everyone was proclaiming him as this huge talent because he could hit such a big ball. And who beat him at the French Open?

I don't think Blake is that amazing, but I'm sick of people calling him a bad player.

Nobody's calling him bad. Just not as good, especially mentally, as the other guys.

You really shouldn't bring up Davis Cup if you want to *defend* Blake, btw. Look up some of the other ties first.
 
What a surprise this guy is #1. He's won three of the last four Aussie Opens, including two straight. He's played in every single one of the last 10 Grand Slam finals and has won eight of them. He "faltered" a bit late in 2007 and STILL won the year-end Masters Cup with extreme ease. He is:

#1: Roger Federer
 
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