Some interesting points and advice for betters.
Credit: pockerguru
Men’s
Roger Federer: 2 to 1
I like this a lot right now. For several years prior to this year’s French Open, you could rarely get odds at anything better than even money on Federer at any Grand Slam outside of Roland Garros. Now, of course, things have changed with Federer not quite as dominant and contenders like Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Andy Murray really asserting themselves. Still, Federer had mono during the Australian Open 2008 (and beyond), to that damaged his chances of winning a fourth title Down Under. There’s no reason to think Federer won’t be 100 percent when he heads to Melbourne this time around. When you’re dealing with a healthy and hungry (to get back his No. 1 ranking) Federer, I’ll take 2 to 1 odds in a hard-court tournament any day.
Rafael Nadal: 7 to 2
For now I would not touch this one. Nadal has never won any of the two hard-court Grand Slams (Australian Open and U.S. Open) and he has never even made it past the semifinals at either one. It’s hard to imagine that changing when Nadal is not at 100 percent physically. Knee tendinitis crippled the end of his otherwise-incredible 2008 campaign, and with tendinitis, you never know when it’s going to subside. Obviously Nadal’s health with be the sole dictator of his updated odds as the Australian Open draws nearer, but right now 7 to 2 is far from safe.
Andy Murray: 4 to 1
Yes, please. A lot of fans probably consider Murray to be the favorite right now. He won Masters Series titles in Cincinnati and Madrid and seemed poised to end the season with a Masters Cup trophy, but playing three hours against Federer (in a win) damaged those chances. Still, Murray concluded 2008 as the hottest player on tour and he should come out of the gates firing in 2009…and eager to reverse his fate of a first-round loss to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at this year’s Aussie Open.
Novak Djokovic: 5 to 1
Before the Masters Cup, such odds would have been abhorrent. Now, however, Djokovic definitely appears to have a fighting chance of successfully defending his 2008 Aussie crown. Keep your enthusiasm tempered, however, as the Serb did not face the toughest competition en route to the Shanghai title. For much of the second half of 2008, Djokovic lost when he had to face the big boys (Federer at the U.S. Open, Murray in Cincinnati, Tsonga on three different occasions during the indoor season). That said, it’s always a great feeling to return to the site of your greatest triumph and that will help Djokovic’s efforts next January.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: 12 to 1
Bettors who like to take risks should get all over this one. We saw at the Australian Open 2008 (and again at the Masters Series Paris) what happens when Tsonga gets hot. He is almost impossible to stop. Furthermore, the Frenchman loves the big stages of tennis and he is not afraid to go up against the top players, which he will have to do in order to win a Grand Slam title. Obviously Tsonga is a longshot, but if he is still healthy come January (and he should be following the off-season), 12 to 1 odds are more than enough to convince action.
Juan Martin Del Potro: 33 to 1
It’s still probably too soon for the 20-year-old to really break out at a Grand Slam. He reached the quarterfinals at the U.S. Open this year, but he has never done better than that at any of the four Majors. Del Potro can catch fire, as we saw this summer when he won four straight tournaments in between Wimbledon and the French Open, so putting at least something down on 33 to 1 odds might be a good idea. Don’t expect it to bear fruit, however. The 6’6’’ Argentine is probably one more year away from true greatness.
Other contenders
40 to 1: Andy Roddick and Ernests Gulbis
Take Roddick if you are inclined to take one of the two. He is a Grand Slam champion (2003 U.S. Open) and he still has some good years left in him. Gulbis has as much talent as anyone on tour, but rarely has he put it together (he did for brief stretches at the 2007 U.S. Open and 2008 French Open). Based on his past history (albeit a short one), it’s surprising to see Gulbis as the sixth or seventh favorite to win the Australian Open. Quarterfinals? Sure, there is a fine chance of that if he gets a favorable draw? Champion? No sir. Not yet.
50 to 1: Nikolay Davydenko, Gilles Simon, David Nalbandian
What I find interesting about this is that of the three, I think Simon has the best chance of reaching the semifinals. But of the three, I think he has the smallest chance of winning the whole tournament. Why? Well, it’s not that complicated at all. Simon is as consistent as they come; you know what you are going to get from him every time he takes the court. Davydenko and Nalbandian are hit or miss. They can be incredible (see Nalbandian’s end of 2007 and Davydenko’s 2008 title at the Masters Series Miami), but they can also be terrible. They can lose first round at the Australian Open 2009, yet they can also go all the way (Nalbandian has a far better chance of winning it all, however, than Davydenko). Simon will almost certainly survive the first week, but his past history at Grand Slams (never past the fourth round) suggests that he is not yet ready for a major breakout.
