Hard to predict. Alcaraz is really the only one who can beat Novak in a slam final even when Novak is playing at his best.
For the UsOpen, I'd give the slight edge to Novak as Alcaraz hasn't played at his Wimbledon level in the fall hardcourt season.
That said, if Alcaraz irons out a few chinks...
We can overanalyze as much as we want. But tennis is a game of inches. It was all about the 2nd set in the last 2 slams - where 1 pt basically decided the match. 2nd sets in both Wimbledon and UsOpen were long and decisive and the loser had a set point in both.
Wimbledon Final: Djokovic...
For all the hype, the next gen players are really poor at passing shots. Even Alcaraz is not so great at that.
Time was when you would approach the net while playing against Nadal. Rafa would pass you easily (especially from his backhand). Every SINGLE time.
I was just completely...
A slam match vs Novak can NEVER be 50-50.
Doesn't matter if one is a fan or not, but Novak has won so many of these matches over almost every player imaginable.
Sure - he loses some. But he wins most of them. That is why he has 23 slams and could go several more.
He's beaten the best players...
Novak had a powder puff draw. And unless Alcaraz wins easily vs Med, Novak's title path would be laughably easy.
Med has zero chance vs Novak. Alcaraz has a legit shot, but with a longer SF he would have very little chance of winning the title.