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  1. falstaff78

    Great article, made me sympathize with Zverev

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/jan/05/after-the-fall-can-alexander-zverev-bounce-back-to-tennis-stardom Respect for coming through tough times.
  2. falstaff78

    Cumulative stats - Djokovic [1] vs. Federer [2] - WIM 2019 F

    Hello, This post is very special for me. After years of trying, I have finally procured a Wimbledon final ticket. After Sunday I can die in peace having seen Federer play a Wimbledon final. Even if he loses. Below are cumulative stats from R3 to SF, for Federer, Djokovic, & Federer-2017. I...
  3. falstaff78

    Cumulative stats - Federer [2] vs. Nadal [3] - WIM 2019 SF

    Here are cumulative stats for Federer and Nadal for the first 5 rounds of Wimbledon 2019. Chart also shows Federer from his 2017 run, and Djokovic for this year. This semi is shaping up to be a titanic battle. Overall. Federer ahead on points (59% v. 58%), both equal on games (65% each)...
  4. falstaff78

    Who is better at 20?

    Let's settle this once and for all. Assume Nadal wins another 2 FO. Who's better at 20 majors? Fedr - 6 AO, 1 FO, 8 W, 5 US = 20 majors - 310 weeks @ no 1 (237 consecutive) - 6 YEC - 101 titles - Misc: Olympics gold doubles, Davis Cup Nadal - 1 AO, 14 FO, 2 W, 3 US = 20 majors - 196 weeks @...
  5. falstaff78

    Cumulative Stats - Djokovic [1], Nadal [2], Federer [3], Thiem [4] - RG 2019 Semi-Finals

    On the occasion of all the big 3 making the semi finals of a major for the first time since RG 2012. It falstaff's honour to present..... CUMULATIVE STATS FOR ALL 4 SEMI-FINALISTS!!!! (...surprise!) We have all 4 guys winning >55% of points, with two guys pushing 60% We have all 4 guys...
  6. falstaff78

    Cumulative stats - Nadal [2] vs. Federer [3] - RG 2019 SF

    It's time for the Big Kahuna... ...and, in short, Federer is good but Nadal is better. But if you want to know how, then read on. Overall Nadal won 74% serve points and 41% on return. This was 13 points and 11 points better than the tour, vs. the same opponents, on clay, in the last two...
  7. falstaff78

    Cumulative stats - Nadal [2], Federer [3], Wawrinka [24] - RG 2019 QF

    Here are cumulative stats for Fedr, Nadal & Stan through 4 rounds. The "combined outperformance "metric works like this: Federer won 75% of service points against his 4 opponents Over the last two years on clay, all players ranked 21-100 won 63% of service points against those same 4 guys...
  8. falstaff78

    Responding to the supposed "weak era" critique

    These numbers address the supposed critique that peak Federer and peak Nadal had weaker competition than peak Djokovic. You can only beat whom is in front of you. Even if there were a "weak era", Federer and Nadal were significantly more dominant in their major victories. Set win/loss in...
  9. falstaff78

    Exactly how big a monster was peak Fedr on clay?

    Fedr on clay, 2004 to 2009, excluding Nadal: 100-7 win-loss (14 W/L) 29-2 v top 20 (15 W/L) Hold rate 88%, break rate 33% By comparison Djokovic on clay, 2011-2016, excluding Nadal: 84-8 win-loss (11 W/L) 34-6 v top 20 (6 W/L) Hold rate 87%, break rate 35% And Thiem on clay, 2016-present...
  10. falstaff78

    Kyrgios' title, and its implications

    Kyrgios' Acapulco win is a magnificent, clutch victory. One of the best non-major title runs in memory. In this post, I'll look at two things. First, whether this run suggests that Kyrgios might now be a threat for multiple majors, or the number 1 ranking? Second, whether the thing...
  11. falstaff78

    Can Fedr get 110?

    In the decade from 2009-2018: avg = 4.2 titles / yr max = 7 (2017), 6 (2015 & 2012) min = 0 (2016), 1 (2013) mode = 4 titles median = 4.5 titles 4+ titles in 8 of last 10 years (and 4 / last 5) 5+ titles in 5 of last 10 years (and 3 / last 5) It seems to me he has a reasonable chance of...
  12. falstaff78

    Giving away a ticket to AO ladies' final

    If you are interested and can make it, PM me. I'll email you the ticket.
  13. falstaff78

    Cumulative stats - Djokovic [1] vs. Nadal [2] - AO 2019 F

    Dear friends. There is nothing to choose between these guys. Nadal is serving just a little better, and Djokovic is returning just a little better. Both are playing at an insanely high level, outperforming the tour by 10 points on both serve and return. One other stat. Falstaff has now...
  14. falstaff78

    Cumulative stats - YEC 2018

    At the request of @Chanwan. Here are cumulative stats for the four matches leading up to the final. Nothing much to see here. The way King Djokovic has laid waste to everyone in his path is nothing short of awe-inspiring. @mightyjeditribble
  15. falstaff78

    Cumulative stats - Del Potro [3] vs. Djokovic [6] - USO 2018 F

    Here are the stats. Delpo may actually have a chance here.
  16. falstaff78

    some "warrior" stats

    1. Retirements: Connors 1513 matches 14 retirements (108 M/R) Djokovic 1066 matches 13 retirements (82 M/R) Lendl 1298 matches 11 retirements (118 M/R) Agassi 1139 matches 10 retirements (114 M/R) Nadal 1212 matches 10 retirements (121 M/R) Sampras 978 matches 7 retirements (140 M/R) Wawrinka...
  17. falstaff78

    Calling Aussies!!! Info needed about AO tix pls

    Hi When aussie open tickets go on sale online, is it possible to get tickets for the men's final, or does it involve luck? 2019 tickets are currently available for 1000 aus dollars (you get both mens' and womens' finals including hospitality for two nights). Am trying to decide whether to just...
  18. falstaff78

    Nadal was lucky to take Wim '18 SF late in a fifth set

    Novak saw BPs in 11/28 return games = 39% Nadal saw BPs in 6/30 return games = 20% Nadal was REALLY struggling on serve and was lucky to take the match late in a fifth set. Disgust.
  19. falstaff78

    Cumulative stats - Federer [1] vs. Anderson [8] - WIM 2018 QF

    These are cumulative stats through the first 4 rounds of Wimbledon 2018, for RF and KA, who will meet in the QFs. All I can say after reading these is, "Good Luck Kevin!"
  20. falstaff78

    Cumulative stats - Wimbledon 2018 Week 1

    Here are cumulative stats from the first week of Wimbledon, for the 6 best players left in the draw. The critical metric is "Outperformance vs. players ranked 21-100." Explained below: Suppose player A has won 70% on serve. But his opponents' opponents win 70% on serve vs. his opponents. ie...
  21. falstaff78

    here is why Nadal struggles at Wimbledon

    As off day 5, the dude has only held without facing deuce (30-30 or 40-40) in half his service games. It's hard to win on grass when your delivery is more sieve than serve.
  22. falstaff78

    Pro Slams as proxy for pre-Open Era Majors?

    Looking for nuanced insights from the tennis history buffs here: What are the pros and cons of taking pro slam victories as a proxy for pre-Open Era major success? Clearly they're not a perfect proxy. But, to use an iconic example, Laver has 11 major victories from his amateur days plus his...
  23. falstaff78

    Some tasty "fighting spirit" stats

    Career record after being 0-2 in BO5: Fedr 10W 32L Djokovic 4W 24L Nadal 3W 18L Losses going to a deciding set: Fedr 117 / 252 = 46% Nadal 72 / 187 = 39% Djokovic 56 / 171 = 33% Shows who the real warrior is, no?
  24. falstaff78

    Fedr v Coric, a match of two parts (IW 2018)

    Take a look at some tasty stats from Fedr v Coric last night. Through 15 games, Fedr was basically Kyrgios: 20% RPW, and no break points in 7 games. From there, he reeled off an Agassian sequence of 8/9 return games where he saw BPs, winning 5 of them, on a staggering 54% RPW. Coric OTOH was...
  25. falstaff78

    Fedr's level in '17/18 not different from '14/15

    See table below, which compares Fedr, on hard courts vs. top 20 players excluding Djokovic, in 2014/15 to 2017/18. It shows that when you correct for surface, strength of opposition, and the fact that there was an omega predator marauding around in 2014/15, who is absent in 2017/18, Fedr's...
  26. falstaff78

    Most majors won in a five-set final

    Most majors won in a five-set final: Borg 5 Fedr 4 Agassi 3 Newcombe 3 Nadal 2 Djokovic 2 Edberg 2 Wilander 2 Sampras 1 Lendl 1 Connors 1 McEnroe 1 Murray 1 Delpo 1 Who's the warrior now?
  27. falstaff78

    Cumulative stats - Federer [2] vs. Cilic [6] - AO 2018 F

    Fedr leads head to head by 8-1 with the sole defeat at the USO QF in 2014. Below are cumulative stats for the first 6 rounds of the AO: Fedr better overall Fedr slightly better on serve, even after correcting for opponents' strength (outperformed the tour by +12 p.p. against his opponents, vs...
  28. falstaff78

    Cumulative stats - Federer [2] vs. Chung - AO 2018 SF

    Here are cumulative stats for Federer and Chung, for the first five rounds of AO18. Federer is better overall. Federer is better on serve. Chung is a little better on return (broken 32% of times vs. 25% for Federer) - however when you correct for the quality of their opponents' serving...
  29. falstaff78

    Cumulative stats - Federer [2] vs. Berdych [19] - AO 2017 QF

    Here are cumulative stats for the first 4 rounds of AO 18 for Federer and Berdych. Head to head, Federer leads 19-6, 11-5 on hard courts, 7-2 in majors. Berdych has not defeated Federer in 5 years, although he came close last year in Miami, and gave him a tough match at Wimbledon. Stats-wise...
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