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  1. schmke

    2021 18+ 4.0M USTA League Nationals Predictions

    Not a big surprise. My ratings had a couple more very close.
  2. schmke

    Playing with or against self rated players

    I think part of the discussion/disagreement is due to terminology. On one hand, and what I think @Dartagnan64 is referring to, there is the coarse grained NTRP "rating", which to me is more of a "level" given how coarse grained it is. It is this level that has the arbitrary thresholds and is a...
  3. schmke

    Predictions and future ratings for Mixed doubles?

    I will do my simulations and predictions for Mixed Nationals too.
  4. schmke

    2021 40+ 4.5M USTA League Nationals Predictions

    Just posted on my blog. Two matches have been fully "tied" so far and been decided by the winner of court 1 doubles. Eight others were within a game or two of also being fully tied.
  5. schmke

    2021 40+ 4.0 Men Predictions

    Hey, I posted a simulation/prediction on my blog! And an equal mention in my forthcoming summary of the weekend (if the 4.5M result would be posted on TL). Nice job on 10th though, my projection was a few spots lower so your guys overachieved a bit.
  6. schmke

    2021 40+ 4.5M USTA League Nationals Predictions

    Was a 5.0M at the end of 2010, in 2014 self-rated at 5.0 again but played just two men's matches and got another 5.0M, managed to self-rate as a 4.5, perhaps due to age and/or an appeal down of what should have been a required 5.0S. Appears to still have 5.0 game though. If it was an appeal...
  7. schmke

    2021 18+ 4.0M USTA League Nationals Predictions

    Also, Intermountain's roster was huge, so one could make the argument playing time had to be spread around. But still USTA's fault for relaxing the rules that allow such a large roster of self-rates.
  8. schmke

    2021 18+ 4.0M USTA League Nationals Predictions

    Another case of the USTA dropping the ball, they relaxed their rules on the number of matches self-rates had to play to be eligible for Nationals. I think the intent was to reduce the burden for teams that may have had trouble getting players in matches due to the pandemic, but I'm pretty sure...
  9. schmke

    2021 40+ 4.5M USTA League Nationals Predictions

    A few matches have been tied all the way to the game winning percentage, meaning the team that won court 1 doubles "wins" the match. Will do a full summary on this topic on my blog shortly.
  10. schmke

    2021 18+ 4.0M USTA League Nationals Predictions

    Yeah, it is hard to do. A few years ago I had a team that was doubles heavy and went 21-3 on the doubles courts in the regular season, then 3-0 in a playoff match to qualify for Sectionals, 3-0 in the first Sectionals match, but then lost a doubles court in a super tie-break to the team that...
  11. schmke

    2021 18+ 4.0M USTA League Nationals Predictions

    Impressive to be able to pull that off.
  12. schmke

    2021 18+ 4.0M USTA League Nationals Predictions

    The whole reason for year-end ratings is that player's abilities change over time. The pandemic didn't suddenly stop this from happening, particularly when we are being told more tennis was played in 2020 because it was considered a safe activity in many areas. So a decision to not publish...
  13. schmke

    2021 18+ 4.0M USTA League Nationals Predictions

    Yes, there were a few. Looking at the way out of level (> 0.25 over) players in the semis that played in 2020: Southern has one, would likely have been bumped up at 2020 year-end but was not wildly out of level then, their rating has gone up 0.25 since then Northern has one, would likely have...
  14. schmke

    2021 18+ 4.0M USTA League Nationals Predictions

    A number of ringers, some even C rates. A big part of the issue is a 2-year rating period. A lot of these players would have been bumped up at 2020 year-end and wouldn't be at this Nationals. Give players 2 years to improve, you will have some wildly out of level.
  15. schmke

    2021 18+ 4.0M USTA League Nationals Predictions

    And Middle States beat Southwest. A 3-1 team will make the semis, and could get in with only an 11-9 individual court record.
  16. schmke

    2021 40+ 4.5M USTA League Nationals Predictions

    Caribbean is always hard to predict. Sometimes they wildly overachieve, sometimes the other way. A 2-year rating period with no cross-play with other sections will do that.
  17. schmke

    18+ 4.5M Nationals Predictions

    Are you referring to a tie in the standings? The National regulations document covers it, and I've written about it (and its shortcomings) a bunch on my blog, but in the event of a team win/loss record tie, it is broken with: Courts win/loss record Head-to-head Fewest sets lost Fewest games...
  18. schmke

    2021 18+ 4.0M USTA League Nationals Predictions

    In part because they didn't play a great line-up. Two of their top-4 haven't played yet, whether not there or saving them I don't know. And four of their lowest rated five have played, one of them twice. This is the wildcard in trying to predict things. Who is there, how are the line-ups...
  19. schmke

    2021 18+ 4.0M USTA League Nationals Predictions

    Everyone but SoCal and Hawaii have played (why does the USTA have a schedule where some teams play twice before two teams have played at all ...) and: Northern and Southwest both 2-0. Intermountain, Southern, Middle West, Eastern all 1-0 Texas and Middle States 1-1 A long ways to go still...
  20. schmke

    2021 18+ 4.0M USTA League Nationals Predictions

    Early results have Northern, Middle West, Southwest, Texas, and Middle States all winning. MoValley, New England, SoCal, and Intermountain still to play.
  21. schmke

    Any predictions on 8.0 55 Nationals?

    I'll do my simulation and prediction next week.
  22. schmke

    2021 18+ 4.0M USTA League Nationals Predictions

    Yes, this is one strategy that is employed. And while DQ's don't happen during a Nationals event, they can and do happen after, so it will be interesting to see what if any self-rates that do well this weekend find themselves DQ'd next week. The DQ is kind of moot unless they are going to...
  23. schmke

    2021 18+ 4.0M USTA League Nationals Predictions

    History is on your side. My simulations are strictly by the numbers, but yeah, if I were wagering I'd find a way to get Intermountain in the mix.
  24. schmke

    2021 40+ 4.5M USTA League Nationals Predictions

    Unlike the 18+ 4.0M that have tightly bunched schedule strengths, the 40+ 4.5 men have quite the range. The easiest is just 4.36 while the toughest is 4.51! The team with that easy schedule is not that strong on paper, but may squeak into the semis due to the easy schedule. The teams likely...
  25. schmke

    2021 18+ 4.0M USTA League Nationals Predictions

    I just posted my predictions from my simulation, looks to be a very tight competition with 14 of the teams having schedule strengths from 3.98 to 4.02. A big tie at 3-1 is likely, but Texas, Middle West, MoValley, and Middle States appear most likely to advance, SoCal, Eastern, Northern...
  26. schmke

    2021 40+ 4.0 Men Predictions

    <deleted, wrong title>
  27. schmke

    40+ 4.0M Nationals Predictions

    Was secretly hoping they'd be tied on games lost.
  28. schmke

    4.5 Men's 18&over Nationals - Surprise, Arizona

    No obvious tanking. Just looks like someone who got back into the game in 2019 and found their stride in late 2020 and into 2021. Very well could have been bumped up had there been 2020 year-end ratings.
  29. schmke

    4.5 Men's 18&over Nationals - Surprise, Arizona

    The USTA appears to put a priority on ensuring the event is over by early afternoon so folks can get a flight out that evening. But yeah, not having the gap between the semi and final that teams had on Friday and Saturday is tough.
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