1. schmke

    Week 7 (the last) of Nationals - 40+ 6.0/7.0/8.0/9.0 Mixed

    The last weekend of Nationals is this weekend in Orlando where all of the 40+ Mixed levels will be played. For some reason, schedules are not yet posted on TennisLink and I usually wait for those to do my simulations as the PDF schedules are still subject to change the TennisLink sort of...
  2. schmke

    Week 6 of Nationals - 18+ 6.0/8.0/10.0 Mixed, 55+ 6.0/9.0

    Week 6 of Nationals is nearly upon us. This weekend finds three levels of Mixed being played in Orlando, and 55+ finishing up its Nationals in Arizona. A preview/simulation of 8.0 Mixed has been posted on the blog, others coming soon.
  3. schmke

    Week 5 of Nationals - 18+ 7.0/9.0 Mixed, 55+ 8.0

    Nationals continues with week 5 this weekend in Arizona (55+) and Orlando (18+ Mixed). I just posted my simulation of 18+ 9.0 Mixed, lets hope the rain stays away, but right now the forecast is 40% chance of PM showers on Friday, and 40% of thunderstorms on Saturday, very similar to the...
  4. schmke

    Week 4 of Nationals - 40+ 4.5+ and 55+ 7.0

    Nationals continue this weekend, but slow down with just two events. The weather is iffy in Orlando for the 4.5+ level, scattered thunderstorms and 40% chance of precipitation each day as I write this. Simulation of the men just posted, Southern, NorCal, Mid-Atlantic, and PNW most likely to...
  5. schmke

    We are five matches away from sending an undefeated 18+ 4.5 mens team home from Nationals

    I wrote a bit ago on my blog and the week 3 thread that after day 1 and a few matches, there was a decent chance of having five undefeated teams at the 18+ 4.5 mens Nationals, and then one would get sent home and not make the semis. Well, with all five teams having played three matches, they...
  6. schmke

    Week 3 of Nationals is a big one - 18+ 4.0 and 4.5, 40+ 3.0 and 3.5

    The busiest weekend of Nationals is this weekend with a full four events for both genders, all events being 5-court format. I just posted my 18+ 4.0 simulation, others coming soon. The 18+ 4.0 appears to be exceedingly competitive with a large tie at 3-1 likely due to some strong teams having...
  7. schmke

    Week 2 of USTA League Nationals is four days away

    Figure we'll start a new thread for this weekend's events. Although I'm sure it will be dominated by discussion of Texas and Intermountain (where the other thread has currently gone). The 18+ 2.5 women will be playing in Las Vegas. No men's event at this level. The 18+ 3.0 levels play at a...
  8. schmke

    USTA League Nationals start in four days

    I've started posting my simulations and predictions on my blog. 18 & Over 3.5 women and men both up for those that care to look. Favorites for the women are Mid-Atlantic Middle States, Eastern, and Texas For the men it is Texas, Middle West, PNW, and NorCal. Many more details on the blog...
  9. schmke

    40 & Over 7.0 Mixed - 7-way tie!

    The final matches for the 7.0 mixed were just posted and there is a 7-way tie at 3-1 for 3-spots. Per the TennisLink standings, Southern, Texas, and Caribbean will advance along with 4-0 Hawaii, but stay tuned, I'm going to look deeper to see how the tie perhaps should have been broken.
  10. M

    Letter Sent to Senior USTA Advisors and Personnel Re: Recent 18+ Men's and Women's 4.5 National Championships Held in Arlington, TX

    My apologies to everyone for the length of this post and the two that follow, but I wanted to share with you the following letter that was written my myself (captain of the SoCal women's team) and the captain of the Florida women's team, and endorsed by the captains of 13 other teams that...
  11. schmke

    Predicting the 40 & Over 4.0 women's Nationals

    Just posted my prediction for the 4.0 women this weekend and it could be the closest of them all. No team has better than a 76% chance of making the semis and the #7 team still has a 53% chance. And no team has a most likely record better than 3-1, but chances are someone ends up 4-0 as...
  12. schmke

    Predicting the 40 & Over 4.0 men's Nationals

    I just wrote my preview/prediction for the 40 & Over 4.0 men. Three teams appear to be big favorites, New England, Florida, and Middle States, and they are all picked to make the semis. @dblsonly @J_R_B
  13. schmke

    Predicting Natonals: 40 & Over 4.5+ women

    Now that a schedule issue was fixed on TennisLink (they had Mid-Atlantic playing 5 matches and Missouri Valley just 4, just 2 days before the event ...), I just posted the prediction for the 4.5+ women and it is much like the rest, three teams pretty big favorites with a fight for the 4th spot...
  14. schmke

    Predicting Nationals: 40 & Over 4.5+ men

    Latest prediction up on my blog. The top 4 teams are somewhat separated from the rest, The Californias, Florida, and Mid-Atlantic, but Pacific NW is pretty close, and Mydwest and Eastern would be next to step up if someone falters. How the 5.0s are used is the wildcard here and can make...
  15. CHtennis

    4.5 Nationals report: Champions!!!

    So I recapped sectionals that we won, and I wanted to write this up for posterity anyways so I thought I would post it on here as well. Going in to Nationals I felt we had a pretty good chance, all our guys we coming, we had three strong singles players, and our doubles players seemed to be...
  16. schmke

    Predicting Nationals: 40 & Over 3.5 men - We could get 4 or 5 undefeated teams

    Just wrote my prediction for the 40+ 3.5 men being played in Arlington this weekend, and the simulation says there is a 40% chance of 4 undefeated teams, and even a 16% chance of 5! The reason is that this even is pretty top heavy with strong teams, and 6 of the top 7 teams all have easier...
  17. schmke

    Predicting the Nationals winners 18 & over 4.5 men and women - Men's All TT Team has a shot!

    Just posted the predictions for the 4.5 men and women. Southern, NorCal, and PNW appear to be the class of the field for the women. The men are more competitive, but SoCal looks to be the favorite. What about the 4.5 men All TT team? They averaged 4.48 and in this group would be tied for the...
  18. schmke

    Predicting the Nationals winners 18 & over 3.5 men and women

    I just posted my 3.5 predictions, and interestingly for these, the top teams are expected to advance. In some of the other events/levels, weaker teams had easy schedules or top teams tough schedules and a few surprises were predicted. But not here. For the women, the top-4 teams are all the...
  19. schmke

    Predicting the Nationals winner 18 & over 3.0 men and women - ESL teams decimated

    I posted my predictions for the 18 & Over 3.0 men and women and the favorites appear to be New England, *******, Intermountain, and Pacific . NW for the men, and Florida, Southern Cal, Hawaii, and Missouri Valley for the women. But in doing my simulations and predictions, I saw once again that...
  20. schmke

    First victim of the questionable tie-breakers at Nationals

    The "round robin" for the 18 & Over 5.0+ Nationals is done, and we have our first victim of the inequitable tie-breakers. Consider the two teams below: Team A - 3-1 / 8-4 / 11 sets lost, 101 games lost Team B - 3-1 / 8-4 / 11 sets lost, 102 games lost By the USTA's tie-breakers, team A gets...
  21. schmke

    Predicting the Nationals winners - 18 & Over 5.0+ men and women

    Just wrote about the 5.0+ levels to be played this weekend in Orlando. 5.0+ played just 3 courts so I use just 7 rather than 10 for the top-N averages, and by this measure both the men and women have pretty big ranges meaning we will likely have some lopsided results and fewer teams are really...
  22. schmke

    Predicting the Nationals winner 18 & over 4.0 women

    I figure there will be a lot of these, so starting a unique thread for each. In less than a week we'll have a National champ for the 4.0 women. I used my simulation to write up a prediction, see more on my blog, but the short story is that Hawaii is the pick to come out on top of a very tight...
  23. schmke

    Predicting the Nationals winners 18 & over 4.0 men

    In less than a week we'll have a National champ for the 4.0 men. I used my simulation to write up a prediction, see more on my blog, but the short story is that Florida is the pick to come out on top of a very tight fight with Northern, Middle States, and Texas. Really, any one of those teams...
  24. schmke

    A team could have to beat the same team twice at Nationals!

    I could have put this on the other thread talking about what might happen with the new Nationals format, but I thought it unique enough it deserved its own thread. One perk of the new format is that a team that loses early could still make the semis, as they aren't being compared with just the...
  25. schmke

    New format for USTA League Nationals for 2018 - What might happen?

    I wrote up some thoughts several months ago on the new format for Nationals on my blog, but have now done some simulations of how things might play out and just wrote that up too. Read all the details there (sorry, not allowed to post a link myself but others can), but a few tidbits are...