‘23 Alcaraz versus ‘09 Muzziah

Just answer it.


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TheFifthSet

Legend
Alright party people, who was the better player, and by how much?

Results:

Murray - 66-11, 6 titles, 0 Majors, 0 Major Finals, 2 Masters

Alcaraz - 63-9, 6 titles, 1 Major, 1 Major Final , 2 Masters

Verdict: Alcaraz decisively


Match Stats:

Murray - 85.3% SGW, 33.3% RGW, 54.5% TPW, 1.29 DR

Alcaraz - 85.6% SGW, 31.9% RGW, 54.1% TPW, 1.28 DR

Verdict: Even, or slight edge Murray with comp factored in (faced more Top 10 players and the Top 10 was better).


Competition Faced:

Murray’s >>>> in Masters, Alcaraz’s > in Majors

Verdict: A push. ‘09 field is stronger
by 10 paces, but Murray didn’t get far enough in the most important events for it to swing the verdict.

Stroke-By-Stroke/Attribute4Attribute Breakdown:

1st serve - Murray >>>
2nd serve - Alcaraz >>>>
FH - Alcaraz >>>
Drive BH - Murray >>>
Slice - Murray >
Return - Murray >
Passing Shots - Even (Murray’s passes sort of regressed in his mid-20’s, weirdly)
Net Game - Even
Movement - Alcaraz > (closest one where I gave an adv to one player)
Stamina - Even
Lobs - Murray
Drop Shots - Alcaraz >>>>


Verdict: Slight edge Murray


Overall: inconclusive. Murray might’ve had the better game but his floor was a bit lower in slams, which he pays for here. ‘12-‘13 as well as ‘16 Murray vs. ‘23 Alcaraz are cleanly in the Scot’s favour in my not-so-humble opinion, but what about these two years?
 
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dking68

Legend
The sad part about these stats is that Murray never improved while Djokovic went on an absolute tear in 2011
 

dking68

Legend
Alright party people, who was the better player, and by how much?

Results:

Murray - 66-11, 6 titles, 0 Majors, 0 Major Finals, 2 Masters

Alcaraz - 63-9, 6 titles, 1 Major, 2 Major Finals , 2 Masters

Verdict: Alcaraz decisively


Match Stats:

Murray - 85.3% SGW, 33.3% RGW, 54.5% TPW, 1.29 DR

Alcaraz - 85.6% SGW, 31.9% RGW, 54.1% TPW, 1.28 DR

Verdict: Even, or slight edge Murray with comp factored in (faced more Top 10 players and the Top 10 was better).


Competition Faced:

Murray’s >>>> in Masters, Alcaraz’s > in Majors

Verdict: A push. ‘09 field is stronger
by 10 paces, but Murray didn’t get far enough in the most important events for it to swing the verdict.

Stroke-By-Stroke/Attribute4Attribute Breakdown:

1st serve - Murray >>>
2nd serve - Alcaraz >>>>
FH - Alcaraz >>>
Drive BH - Murray >>>
Slice - Murray >
Return - Murray >
Passing Shots - Even (Murray’s passes sort of regressed in his mid-20’s, weirdly)
Net Game - Even
Movement - Alcaraz > (closest one where I gave an adv to one player)
Stamina - Even
Lobs - Murray
Drop Shots - Alcaraz >>>>


Verdict: Slight edge Murray


Overall: inconclusive. Murray might’ve had the better game but his floor was a bit lower in slams, which he pays for here. ‘12-‘13 as well as ‘16 Murray vs. ‘23 Alcaraz are cleanly in the Scot’s favour in my not-so-humble opinion, but what about these two years?
Del potro won less matches than Murray and in the end he was a slam winner before Murray. I would take 09’ Del po over 09 Murray any day. 09’ Murray got crushed by baby Cilic. There’s no way he beats Alcaraz
 

TheFifthSet

Legend
The sad part about these stats is that Murray never improved while Djokovic went on an absolute tear in 2011

Eh, not like Murray ever had the capacity to go on a 2011 Djoko run anyway.

You’re right that ‘09 was basically his Match Stat peak though - he equalled these %’s in ‘16 but fared markedly better in tiebreaks, which proved to be decisive at Wimby.

‘12-‘13 is his “true peak”, IMO.
 

dking68

Legend
Eh, not like Murray ever had the capacity to go on a 2011 Djoko run.

You’re right about this being basically his Match Stat peak though - he equalled these %’s in ‘16 but fared markedly better in tiebreaks, which proved costly at Wimby.

‘12-‘13 is his “true peak”, IMO.
There’s a reason why he finished fourth in the rankings in 09. Djokovic did better in masters and slams and just was better in the bigger events. Del potro was seeded higher than him in 10’ AO, why? Del potro did better at the bigger events despite winning less tournaments/matches
 

TheFifthSet

Legend
Del potro won less matches than Murray and in the end he was a slam winner before Murray. I would take 09’ Del po over 09 Murray any day. 09’ Murray got crushed by baby Cilic. There’s no way he beats Alcaraz

‘09 Murray had scope for improvement though, as his ‘08 USO run proved. Just peaked at the wrong times (except Wimby, Roddick was simply too good).
 

Poisoned Slice

Bionic Poster
Murray smokes his boots.
Jiggy-335160a0141b5bdbf0.gif
 

dking68

Legend
‘09 Murray had scope for improvement though, as his ‘08 USO run proved. Just peaked at the wrong times (except Wimby, Roddick was simply too good).
Del potro finished below 09 Murray. But who would be remembered more? Del potro for dethroning Federer in the biggest event in tennis
 

TheFifthSet

Legend
Anyways I would take the current top 4 players over 09 Murray anyday. He lost miserably to Marin Cilic. He would definitely lose to the current top 4 players

Murray’s return is too good to get washed out by Med and Sinner, neither of whom have an ATG-calibre stroke like that.
 

dking68

Legend
Murray’s return is too good to get washed out by Med and Sinner, neither of whom have an ATG-calibre stroke like that.
And your argument is? Del potro was seeded higher than him for the 10’ AO. He just wasn’t a big match player and I would take the current top 4 over him anyday
 

TheFifthSet

Legend
No but he wouldn’t Peter out in the fourth round to Marin Cilic

worse fates than that though lol, Cilic’s big game could hurt people in Majors. Believe Alcaraz only broke Med once, in four sets?

Besides by their logic Sinner can’t even be in the discussion, he flaked out to Altmaierr, 1-88 Vs. Top 10 in Majors Zverev, and a Tsitsipas that even broken-hip Murray brings to a 9 count every match.
 

TheFifthSet

Legend
If Cilic was able to dismantle Murray so easily, Sinner would crush him on American soil

Sinner ain’t no model of consistency, his own slam record in ‘23 tells us this. Terrible tournament for Murray but you’re drawing too much from 1 result. Murray’s ‘08 dismantling of Nadal showed he could do much better at The Open.
 

dking68

Legend
worse fates than that though lol, Cilic’s big game could hurt people in Majors. Believe Alcaraz only broke Med once, in four sets?

Besides by their logic Sinner can’t even be in the discussion, he flaked out to Altmaierr, 1-88 Vs. Top 10 in Majors Zverev, and a Tsitsipas that even broken-hip Murray brings to a 9 count every match.
Point is. Murray never really improved. Djokovic finished 09’ with an 80% win rate and went on an absolute tear in 11’. I’m thinking the same will happen for Sinner, he’s improving and making a lot of improvements. There is a major physical gap for Sinner and even in 09’ Djokovic was physically behind Murray and in the end the 86% win rate in 09 for Murray didn’t mean much because he didn’t build upon the performance
 

TheFifthSet

Legend
And your argument is?

That he’s a better player for above reasons. :p

Del potro was seeded higher than him for the 10’ AO.

Confused about why that’s relevant here tbh

He just wasn’t a big match player

Compared to who though? Sinner has done d-all to prove his big match chops, Med did well against a visibly nervous and tired Djoko.


and I would take the current top 4 over him anyday

Fair enough, let’s A2D.
 

TheFifthSet

Legend
Point is. Murray never really improved.

Well we’re going in circles here because you seem to think there’s a perfect overlap between statistical and real-life improvement. I don’t. Our axioms differ and to me it’s clear that Murray improved under Lendl, stat-padding be damned. :p


Djokovic finished 09’ with an 80% win rate and went on an absolute tear in 11’. I’m thinking the same will happen for Sinner, he’s improving and making a lot of improvements.

I wish I had your optimism because I like the lad. Hope he does just that. And he’s definitely underperforming relative to his match stats, to a surprising degree.


in 09’ Djokovic was physically behind Murray and in the end the 86% win rate in 09 for Murray didn’t mean much because he didn’t build upon the performance

Tells us ‘09 Djoko was pretty darn good too, no? Alas he also didn’t peak at the right times, only the USO was his saving grace but he sucked (and sucked wind) at the 5 biggest events in ‘09.
 

dking68

Legend
That he’s a better player for above reasons. :p



Confused about why that’s relevant here tbh



Compared to who though? Sinner has done d-all to prove his big match chops, Med did well against a visibly nervous and tired Djoko.




Fair enough, let’s A2D.
Okay so who would win then 03 Fed or 09 Murray? People are obviously going to pick the Slam winner and the ATP finals winner because he won when it mattered most
 

TheFifthSet

Legend
Okay so who would win then 03 Fed or 09 Murray? People are obviously going to pick the Slam winner and the ATP finals winner because he won when it mattered most

Grand Canyon-sized difference between peaks so definitely Fed. Difference here is that ‘03 Wimby was one of Fed’s finest Major wins whereas ‘23 Alcaraz, while a worthy Wimby Champ, doesn’t blow ‘09 Murray out of the water game-wise.
 

dking68

Legend
Grand Canyon-sized difference between peaks so definitely Fed. Difference here is that ‘03 Wimby was one of Fed’s finest Major wins whereas ‘23 Alcaraz, while a worthy Wimby Champ, doesn’t blow ‘09 Murray out of the water game-wise.
You’re not getting the point. Alcaraz 23’ will be regarded as a more historically significant season than 09 Murray. Murray never improved, he was at his peak both physically and game wise but was underwhelming at slams
 

dking68

Legend
Well we’re going in circles here because you seem to think there’s a perfect overlap between statistical and real-life improvement. I don’t. Our axioms differ and to me it’s clear that Murray improved under Lendl, stat-padding be damned. :p




I wish I had your optimism because I like the lad. Hope he does just that. And he’s definitely underperforming relative to his match stats, to a surprising degree.




Tells us ‘09 Djoko was pretty darn good too, no? Alas he also didn’t peak at the right times, only the USO was his saving grace but he sucked (and sucked wind) at the 5 biggest events in ‘09.
He underperforms because from the Birds Eye - he isn’t in his physical peak and his game can improve some more, and is unable to win 2 tournaments back to back. I can assure you Sinner will build upon the 23’ results
 

TheFifthSet

Legend
You’re not getting the point. Alcaraz 23’ will be regarded as a more historically significant season than 09 Murray.

I got what you were hinting at, and actually agree with what I quoted here. But that’s the point of the thread, if we went by pure results then of course Murray can’t compare lol. That was covered in the ’Results’ section.

Murray never improved, he was at his peak both physically and game wise but was underwhelming at slams

Disagree for already-stated reasons :p higher floor and peak at slams in ‘12-‘13. ‘09 Murray had a fine Masters peak though.
 

dking68

Legend
I got what you were hinting at, and actually agree with what I quoted here. But that’s the point of the thread, if we went by pure results then of course Murray can’t compare lol. That was covered in the ’Results’ section.



Disagree for already-stated reasons :p higher floor and peak at slams in ‘12-‘13. ‘09 Murray had a fine Masters peak though.
Stats aside I would take Alcaraz despite Murray’s brilliant 09 stats. Alcaraz in straights for me at all 4 slams
 

TheFifthSet

Legend
Murray’s passing shots were definitely superior to Carlos’, he was a nightmare for net rushing players.

I really believe Murray faced a tougher competition better, but Alcaraz has a much better mentality for big matches. Both would go slamless in 2009, though.

nice call, Young Murray was a great passer, I remember everyone used to talk about this from ‘08-‘10. Could’ve been generous by calling it a wash.
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
Very tricky. Right now they are about even. If Andy could win ATP finals he would have been ahead. If Alcaraz wins ATP finals he would be definitely ahead.
 
AO: Murray
IW: Raz
Miami: Murray
Madrid: Raz
RG: Raz, even though he cramped
Wimbledon: tricky one as Murray should be a heavy favourite to win this Wimbledon and I would give it to him even though he lost in the SF in 2009
Toronto: Murray
Cincy: no idea
USO: Raz
Shanghai: not too relevant
Paris and YEC: yet to see

I would give Murray the AO and Wimbledon, Raz the RG and USO, Murray with Miami and Toronto, Raz with Madrid and IW.

So about even.
 

Underdog

Professional
Right but does ‘23 Alcaraz win a Major in that field? Tough ask.
Maybe RG or WB, funnily enough. I’d actually bet on him for RG if I knew Nadal would be upset.

Also, on a sidenote, didn’t Alcaraz make a single Slam final this year instead of the two stated in the OP?
 

taster

Rookie
'Better', is a non specific term, the question isn't a real question because the word can be interpreted in multiple ways. Too many variables to throw into the pot.
No definitive conclusion to this, but don't let that stop endless pointless wrangling.
 

NatF

Bionic Poster
Maybe RG or WB, funnily enough. I’d actually bet on him for RG if I knew Nadal would be upset.

Also, on a sidenote, didn’t Alcaraz make a single Slam final this year instead of the two stated in the OP?

No way he wins the FO in 2009 come on lol.
 
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