[1] Novak Djokovic vs [3] Rafael Nadal MC FINAL

Discussion in 'Pro Match Results and Discussion' started by -RF-, Apr 20, 2013.

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Who will win?

  1. Djokovic in 2

    38 vote(s)
    32.5%
  2. Djokovic in 3

    20 vote(s)
    17.1%
  3. Nadal in 2

    27 vote(s)
    23.1%
  4. Nadal in 3

    32 vote(s)
    27.4%
  1. djokovic2008

    djokovic2008 Hall of Fame

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    Are you sure? you make him sound like isner, i've seen both finals more than four times and we will have too agree to disagree.
     
  2. mightyrick

    mightyrick Legend

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    Yeah, I think this it is actually even more critical for Djokovic. If he is going to win the FO, it needs to be this year. Because I don't see him having a better chance of beating Nadal next year. He needs to beat Nadal while his form is still questionable.

    I know all of the focus right now is on Djokovic's performance on clay... but I honestly think Djokovic's biggest threat is hardcourt. I mean forget clay.

    Murray is in high form on hardcourt. Del Potro is surging on hardcourt. Federer is Federer. I really think that Djokovic is going to have to be working pretty hard to maintain his win rate. I'm not sure winning on clay should be his biggest focus.
     
  3. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

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    I'm not sure about much but 1 thing I am sure about is that Novak's focus should be on clay 200%. Where else could it be when RG is the only slam (and at this point almost the only tier 1 event) that he's never won?? And it's not like it would be a far fetched dream either. He knows that he has the abilities to pull it off .
     
  4. spinovic

    spinovic Hall of Fame

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    The worst news for Nadal, and the most significant takeaway, is that Djokovic in 2013 looks more like the guy from 2011 than the guy from 2012.
     
  5. PCXL-Fan

    PCXL-Fan Hall of Fame

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    It would make more of a statement if Novak goes in with 90% effort on clay and wins it. That would be the ultimate statement.
     
  6. Feather

    Feather Hall of Fame

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    Serve stats for US Open 2010 final and Wimbledon 2011 final

    http://au.eurosport.com/tennis/us-open/2009/us-open-final-statistics_sto2467404/story.shtml

    http://au.eurosport.com/tennis/us-open/2009/us-open-final-statistics_sto2467404/story.shtml

    Nadal has a first serve percantage of 67 % in US and at Wimbledon 2011 it was 78 %. The difference was Djokovic's excellent return. His serve percentage was 90 % in W 2011 and still he was broken.

    Now how was Nadal serving better in US 2010 than W 2011?
     
  7. Mike Sams

    Mike Sams Legend

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    Yeah because we all know that Nadal is getting better and better as his career goes forward. :lol: He's 27 in June. Nadal's clock is ticking just like his pal Fed.
     
  8. mightyrick

    mightyrick Legend

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    Lol, you do realize that Nadal is only 50 weeks older than Djokovic, right? Less than one year. So don't forget... Djokovic's clock is ticking, too. His chances of getting better at this point aren't that great, either.

    If he's going to do it, now is the time to strike. I find it unlikely that Djokovic is going to have increased chances when he's 27, or 28, or 29.
     
  9. djokovic2008

    djokovic2008 Hall of Fame

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    Grass is FAR quicker than hardcourt so first serve points won is not a TRUE reflection of serve. Nadal was serving at 135mph plus at USO 2010.
     
  10. rafan

    rafan Hall of Fame

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    Well whatever the outcome. Nadal will be remembered for being one of the most exciting players we have had for decades and there haven't been many
     
  11. Blinkism

    Blinkism Legend

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    Really thought Nadal would pull this one out. He managed to stop Djokovic's beast form in the first set but couldn't win the dog-fight in the second?

    Strange days we live in.

    Murray has a slam, Nadal loses in Monte Carlo, Gulbis is finding consistency.

    Is this the real life?
     
  12. Hitman

    Hitman G.O.A.T.

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    And you're not making his serving in 2010 USO final sound like Isner either, saying Djokovic couldn't do anything? The same Djokovic many claim as the greatest returner of all time?

    Big difference in Djokovic from 2010 to 2011. Serial runner up to serial winner.

    And, no problems, lets just agree to disagree and end it at that.
     
  13. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

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    Nadal's avg 1st serve was faster in 2011 Wimbledon final compared to 2010 USO final while also mainting a higher 1st serve in %.

    First serve points won is a reflection on the surface, the returner and how the serves backs up his serve.

    In 2011 Wimbledon final Nadal average 1st serve was higher, his 1st serves in % was higher and he hit the spots about as well compared to 2010 USO final thus his 2011 Wimbledon final serving performance was better.
     
  14. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

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    Here is the post in which I compared Nadal's serving stats when the stats of both matches were still available on the official sites of USO and Wimbledon:

    http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showpost.php?p=6145840&postcount=37


    That's the problem with tennis match stats, they aren't being archived so we end up with Nadal fanboys like yourself talking out of your ***.
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2013
  15. DragonBlaze

    DragonBlaze Hall of Fame

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    Funny that he remembered Nadal "serving at 135mph plus", when that didn't even happen in that match :lol:
     
  16. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

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    Yeah, I wouldn't want to go into JV's fantasies about Nadal, he probably remembers thunder coming out of Nadal's eyes in that USO final or something.

    Seriously, the way Novak returned in 2011 there are very, very few servers that would be able to make him look like he couldn't anything on a medium-fast HC such as USO, maybe a guy like Sampras or Goran, certainly not Nadal who even on his best serving days doesn't come close.
     
  17. djokovic2008

    djokovic2008 Hall of Fame

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    Do you really think those stats are gospel lol, I have just re-run the match on film and he served 135mph which shows stats are not accurate but keep believing what your feed.

    P.S there is a father xmas:):)
     
  18. djokovic2008

    djokovic2008 Hall of Fame

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    Where did you get these make believe stats I'm watching film now and look he served 135mph.
     
  19. djokovic2008

    djokovic2008 Hall of Fame

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    Apparently according to zagors stats nadals biggest serve in wimby final was 126mph and it was 132mph at US0 2010 (it was actually 135mph but thats splitting hairs) so do you want to re-think the massive serving statement?
     
  20. malbaker86

    malbaker86 Professional

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    Unless you can screenshot what you're trying to prove, just admit that this arguement was one that you didn't win. No point in continously burying yourself
     
  21. Hitman

    Hitman G.O.A.T.

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    I thought we'd agree to disagree. :confused:

    If you really want to continue to debate it, then look at the average speed also. W 2011 is higher. That means for that ONE big serve, which could be an outright liar, you had a relatively weak serve also, considerably more weak than his weakest serves in W 2011, if average of USO 2010 is lower than that of W 2011.

    That means Djokovic would still be getting more plays on the ball at US 2010, since there would be plenty of slow ones as well. However, if Djokovic's level was lower, then naturally he would struggle more.
     
  22. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

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    They were taken off the official US Open and Wimbledon sites in 2011 but I'll try to get my hands on both matches to rewatch them and compare.

    It's interesting to see that you have a 2010 USO F on hand though, given big of a Novak fan you are I'm guessing you have 2011 Wimbledon as well? Sorry I forgot, Nadal lost that one.
     
  23. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

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    Hitman, do you know if it's possible to see the stats of older finals on USO and Wimbledon official sites? I can only find the latest final stats.
     
  24. djokovic2008

    djokovic2008 Hall of Fame

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    This has nothing to do with me being a djoker fan as I'm proving a point that you and others are wrong about plus every slam final djoker made is watchable whether he lost or won.
     
  25. djokovic2008

    djokovic2008 Hall of Fame

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    Your right we did but just had to point out the fact that nadal served bigger on a slower surface don't disregard how big surface plays in this.
     
  26. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

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    Yes, you're trying very hard to prove a point in favour of Nadal and against Novak, again even if Nadal has the best serving day of his career he will not make Novak look helpless on the return of serve the way Novak returned in 2011.

    Oh yeah, especially the ones he lost to Nadal.
     
  27. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

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    He didn't serve bigger on average (a one off big bomb doesn't change that), if anything grass should have made it even harder for Novak to return serve yet he did an excellent job of it.

    Also, do you honestly disagree that 2011 Novak's ROS >>> 2010 Novak's ROS?
     
  28. djokovic2008

    djokovic2008 Hall of Fame

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    Watch Federers and Nadal's interviews in the USO 2011 and they will tell you his ROS has always been great but now people like you who only paid attention to djoker in 2011 because he was winning when posters like me who have been watching him since 07 always knew this. His break stats have been good for years.

    This federer talking about djokers ROS at the 2010 shanghai masters

    Q. You served and volleyed a lot during the first set. You had a lot of long rallies. Was that something intentional that you did?
    ROGER FEDERER: I don't remember serve and volleying much, to be honest. He's one of the best return players in the game. He's dangerous. If he catches the ball in the proper place on his racquet, it comes back like a bullet.


    http://www.asapsports.com/show_interview.php?id=67041

    So in one year he has suddenly got a good ROS right lol
     
  29. Hitman

    Hitman G.O.A.T.

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    http://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/search/results.html?query=match+statistics

    There are a couple of thousand matches in there from Wimbledon, if you are patient enough to look through them! :)

    I'll see if I can find the US Open stuff for you.
     
  30. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

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    Are you seriously that clueless or is it your love for Nadal that is blinding you? Of course Novak always had a great ROS but in 2011 it was particulary devastating compared to any of his years before or since.

    To give you an another example, Goran and Sampras were always great servers but in some years their serve was particuarly deadly and they had a higher ace count that specific year.

    Nadal's CC game is always lethal but in some years it was even more impressive than others or is 2011 version of Nadal on the same level as 2008 regarding CC tennis? I guess Novak won 4 straight sets on clay against Nadal at his utmost best, right?

    BTW. Posters like myself first saw Novak back in 2005 and posted about him here in 2007, you on the other hand joined (or to be more precise, made another account) when Novak beat Fed at USO so don't presume to lecture me, especially since I can see right through your BS.
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2013
  31. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

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    Thanks for posting those links but most of them still go to 2012, I'll do a more thorough search of them later.

    I did get 2011 Wimbledon match, If I can also get 2010 USO match atleast I'll be able to compare the number of unreturned servers for Nadal, I doubt the difference will be drastic, it was Nadal's overall (read mostly baseline) game that overwhelmed Novak in their 2010 USO final (when Novak was certainly not on the level he would later reach in 2011, both gamewise and mentallly) not his serving or something.
     
  32. djokovic2008

    djokovic2008 Hall of Fame

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    Another one of your bald face lies, You had no interest or knowledge of djoker till 2011 or 2010 and thats me giving you the benefit of the doubt. I predicted early on that he would be a big success obviously not to the extent of 2011. Now go back to being a glory hunter and support fed like so many posters on here who no nothing about tennis just like fed because he was winning all the time.
     
  33. Relinquis

    Relinquis Hall of Fame

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    this thread has become such an ugly place...
     
  34. TheTruth

    TheTruth G.O.A.T.

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    Thank you so much.

    I don't understand how people think that just because you did something in the past, you have to keep repeating it year in and year out. The slightest blip and people go crazy. This is sports, sports equal unpredictability. That's why we watch.
     
  35. TheTruth

    TheTruth G.O.A.T.

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    That's what I thought too. When I tried I couldn't think of anybody who came back after an injury layoff and played gangbusters consistently upon their return. He won some small tournaments upon his return and then Indian Wells, but I think that was adrenaline. He still had to face the battle tested warriors.

    I thought back to Serena, del Potro, and Sharapova. It was a process for all of them. Why would it be any different for Rafa?
     
  36. Mike Sams

    Mike Sams Legend

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    Reminds me of when Guillermo Canas returned after some years and went and beat Federer in back to back meetings at Indian Wells and Miami 2007, making the final. Canas did amazingly well for some months but again, was mainly adrenaline and being fresh in body and mind.
     
  37. TheTruth

    TheTruth G.O.A.T.

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    Exactly. That's a great example. Then you come back to earth and have to face a plethora of different styles and the rusty decision-making comes to the forefront. I don't know how people jump so quickly to conclusions. Amazing.
     
  38. PrinceMoron

    PrinceMoron Hall of Fame

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    Yes, and all that time between points to talk about them.......yawn.......
     
  39. abmk

    abmk Talk Tennis Guru

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    here's the USO 2010 final match stats :

    http://web.archive.org/web/20100916041118/http://www.usopen.org/en_US/scores/stats/day21/1701ms.html

    nadal avg serve speed :

    1st serve : 116 mph
    2nd serve : 88 mph

    nadal's play in that USO 2010, though excellent, gets pretty over-rated IMO . His 2nd serve was pretty attackable, but given his joke of a draw until the finals , apart from djokovic , no player was in half-decent position to take advantage of it.

    his return wasn't that good in that tourney (only returned well in the finals ) - and he didn't meet one excellent/big server in decent form.
     
  40. NJLefty

    NJLefty Rookie

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    I really wish Nadal would graduate to a big boy jock strap so we don't have to suffer through him yanking at his ***. Just like Sharapova needs to grow up and stop turning her back on her opponents.
     
  41. djokovic2008

    djokovic2008 Hall of Fame

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  42. kragster

    kragster Hall of Fame

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    Nadal's Draw at USO 2010

    R128 Teymuraz Gabashvili (RUS) 93 W 7-6(4), 7-6(4), 6-3
    R64 Denis Istomin (UZB) 39 W 6-2, 7-6(5), 7-5
    R32 Gilles Simon (FRA) 42 W 6-4, 6-4, 6-2
    R16 Feliciano Lopez (ESP) 25 W 6-3, 6-4, 6-4
    Q Fernando Verdasco (ESP) 8 W 7-5, 6-3, 6-4
    S Mikhail Youzhny (RUS) 14 W 6-2, 6-3, 6-4 Stats
    W Novak Djokovic (SRB) 3 W 6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 6-2

    Fed's Draw at USO 2006

    R128 Jimmy Wang (TPE) 109 W 6-4, 6-1, 6-0
    R64 Tim Henman (GBR) 62 W 6-3, 6-4, 7-5
    R32 Vincent Spadea (USA) 84 W 6-3, 6-3, 6-0
    R16 Marc Gicquel (FRA) 79 W 6-3, 7-6(2), 6-3
    Q James Blake (USA) 7 W 7-6(7), 6-0, 6-7(9), 6-4
    S Nikolay Davydenko (RUS) 6 W 6-1, 7-5, 6-4
    W Andy Roddick (USA) 10 W 6-2, 4-6, 7-5, 6-1

    Seems both draws are equally weak/strong to me. Unless US open GOAT Marc Giquel makes Fed's draw harder.

    Also 2010 Novak while certainly not peak Novak, is a hell of a lot better player than 2006 Roddick ( you can bring up the Roddick Novak H2H if you like but this is about performance against the field). In fact even in Nole's worst year , 2009, he achieved more than Roddick in 2006. And isn't youzhny the guy who supposedly Nadal can't handle?

    An important thing to consider is also that Nadal lost 1 set that whole tournament. It would be a different thing if with this supposedly 'joke draw' he barely made it through. I use the same argument when people say Fed played a weak era. Basically, even if someone played a supposedly weaker player, the fact that they crushed them should show how dominant they were. Fed was not just winning his slams but thrashing his opponents. Similarly in this USO 2010, Nadal was pretty damn dominant.
     
  43. pds999

    pds999 Hall of Fame

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    I'd argue the Djokovic of Sep 2010 wasn't a great deal off the Djokovic of Spring 2011 when he started the winning run against Rafa. The difference was that 2010 Rafa was a level above 2011 Rafa. It would be interesting to see them both play at their peak which I don't think they have yet.
     
  44. kragster

    kragster Hall of Fame

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    I disagree that the main difference was Rafa's form. Djoker's form also played a huge role. His confidence levels were through the roof in Spring 2011. He was bageling and breadsticking folks left right and centre. On hard courts playing their best, I don't see how Nadal can win (or win consistently anyway). I think the fact that Djoker has more HC slams AND leads the hardcourt H2H would suggest that he is in fact the much better hardcourt player.

    It's not accurate to draw conclusions from a single match so when you look at their hardcourt resumes, I think it is quite clear that Novak is the better HC player. This doesn't have any bearing on how well Rafa played in USO 2010. But being in god mode for 1 match or 1 tournament isnt enough. If peak Rafa and peak Djokovic faced off at USO 10 times, I would give it 7-3 or 8-2 in djoker's favor.
     
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2013
  45. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

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    Thanks for posting the link Abmk and sorry for the late reply.

    If it's not too much trouble could you explain to me how did you find 2010 US open site and/or can you do the same for 2011 Wimbledon final.
     
  46. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

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    Just to clarify my stance on this, I didn't say Nadal's 2010 USO form/level of play was overrated, just his serving performance compared to 2011 Wimbledon final in that regard.
     
  47. kragster

    kragster Hall of Fame

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    Yeah, no worries, I was just responding to abmk's comment about nadal's "joke of a draw".

    I do agree that his serving performance may be overrated, in fact the difference in rafa's performance between USO 2010 and Wim 2011 is not the serving performance but the ability to be aggressive off the BH. Since 2011, I have found Rafa's BH to serve as simply a rally shot rather than an attacking shot. I was looking through the 2008 olympic SF highlights MN posted and Rafa's BH used to look much better.

    of course the BIGGEST factor was not anything in Rafa's control, it was just God mode Novak . In the past Rafa could rely on Novak's level being up and down and fight it out. In 2011, Novak was ON all the time.
     
  48. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

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    Definitely agree regarding Nadal's BH being more of a weapon than just a rally shot in 2008-2010 period (2009 AO especially comes to mind, he was hitting some ridiculous CC BH winners and was going DTL more) than after or before and 2011 Novak not having dips in form during matches, however I'd also add that my impression was that Nadal also hit with considerable more depth off the FH side in 2010 USO than he normally does in that tourney.

    Either way, my point was that Nadal's serve even at its absolute best isn't some unsolvable puzzle for Novak or a weapon in Nadal's arsenal that makes Novak look helpless or something, in short, in 2010 USO final Nadal won the baseline war, in 2011 Wimbledon final Novak won the baseline war, Nadal's serving performance was at the very least comparable (and exceptional for his standards) in both finals but was not the key factor in either one of those matches (IMO).
     
  49. NatF

    NatF Talk Tennis Guru

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    Federer's draw was tougher. Roddick had a bad year generally in 2006 but he was playing better by the time the US Open rolled around. Blake, Davydenko are both much better players than the people Nadal faced in the quarters and Semi finals. 3 top 10 players > 1 top 10 player. Djokovic in 2010 hadn't beaten a top 10 player all year until he defeated Federer in 5 sets.

    Nadal's 2010 USO is overrated in general IMO. He played extremely well no doubt but some people tout it as the greatest hardcourt form ever lol.
     
  50. djokovic2008

    djokovic2008 Hall of Fame

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    You are right in terms of the draw until djokovic, even if it was not djoker 2.0 it was still a good standard djoker who was on a high after just beating fed on a surface where any type of novak always gave trouble to Nadal. However in the final Nadal was brutal that day and djoker actually played quite well (not 2.0), Nadal served great and hit great.
     

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