1. Sinner vs 4. Medvedev 2024 atp finals RR

Will The results change or are we in for another beatdown.

  • Sinner giving bakery products

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Meddy in straights

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    16
  • Poll closed .

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
Sinner has looked great post USOpen. Just 1 loss in third set tiebreak to Alcaraz. While Medvedev has not looked great since Wimbledon. Constant losses to Sinner and Alcaraz.
But the Fritz match showed something has changed in Medvedev. He says he tweaked with his rackets because he was not getting enough power. And he will make more adjustments vs Sinner as he has nothing to lose.

 

roysid

Legend
Sinner is always the favourite vs Med
But at the same time, medvedev can surprise Sinner. He beat him at Wimbledon and also was 2 sets up at AO before running out of gas.
When Meddys on, ge disrupts the rhythm of others
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
Sinner is always the favourite vs Med
But at the same time, medvedev can surprise Sinner. He beat him at Wimbledon and also was 2 sets up at AO before running out of gas.
When Meddys on, ge disrupts the rhythm of others
Sinner looked less than at his best vs Fritz. Still was able to win 4 and 4.
 

Rovesciarete

Hall of Fame
Sinner has looked great post USOpen. Just 1 loss in third set tiebreak to Alcaraz. While Medvedev has not looked great since Wimbledon. Constant losses to Sinner and Alcaraz.
But the Fritz match showed something has changed in Medvedev. He says he tweaked with his rackets because he was not getting enough power. And he will make more adjustments vs Sinner as he has nothing to lose.


Lots of experimentation coming as a response to those 'bad balls'. Guess the control-power mix of the tour will keep shifting towards more power.
 

Drighiz

Rookie
I'd be very surprised if this ends up being a walk in the park. I think Medvedev seems in a good place mentally, played very well against AdM and Jannik hasn't shown his very best form. Will probably be the toughest match of the RR.
 

buscemi

Legend
I doubt Sinner will lack for motivation in this match, but am I right that he's #1 in the group as long as he wins 1 set, meaning he might be less motivated after winning that one set?
 
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nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
I doubt Sinner will lack for motivation in this match, but am I right that he's #1 in the group as long as he wins 1 set, being he might be less motivated after winning that one set?
No you are not.

Now there are only two scenarios left

2-2-2-0 - If Meddy beats Sinner in straights and very bad, then tiebreaker is sets won %, say its equal then games won % and then Meddy can be 1 and Sinner 2
3-2-1-0 - If Sinner wins he is number 1
 

buscemi

Legend
No you are not.

Now there are only two scenarios left

2-2-2-0 - If Meddy beats Sinner in straights and very bad, then tiebreaker is sets won %, say its equal then games won % and then Meddy can be 1 and Sinner 2
3-2-1-0 - If Sinner wins he is number 1
But I'm talking about Medvedev beating Sinner in 3 sets. In that case, Sinner is also #1, right? Sinner, Medvedev, and Fritz would all be 2-1, but Sinner would be 5-2 in sets won, while Medvedev and Fritz would be 4-3.
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
But I'm talking about Medvedev beating Sinner in 3 sets. In that case, Sinner is also #1, right? Sinner, Medvedev, and Fritz would all be 2-1, but Sinner would be 5-2 in sets won, while Medvedev and Fritz would be 4-3.
Right. If sinner wins a set then he would top the group. Fritz and meddy will come down to games won % where fritz has more advantage as of now.
 

JMR

Hall of Fame
But meddy is tweaking with rackets and is everybody, meddy played superb in last match.
Medvedev played well in part because De Minaur allowed him to play well. Demon has less power than either Fritz or Sinner. His inability to overpower Medvedev means that Medvedev is freer to apply his finesse-based strategies, play cat-and-mouse games, and take control of points with power himself on occasion. It's a good matchup for Medvedev.

As I watched some highlights of Med vs. Demon, I was reminded of Mecir's matchups with Lendl and Wilander. Not that Med is a clone of Mecir by any means, but there are some similarities in their baseline approaches and their overall strengths and vulnerabilities. Mecir was very strong against Wilander -- had a winning H2H and absolutely destroyed Mats on a few occasions. But the Big Cat was generally ineffective against Lendl -- beat him once (at the Lipton, in one of Mecir's best-ever performances), but otherwise lost handily, including a couple of bad defeats in slam finals. Why the different outcomes? Well, I think one reason is that Wilander, with his "softer" game, gave Mecir much more time and space to work his magic. But Lendl was more direct and powerful, and he often pushed Mecir around and simply took control. The bottom line is that a good performance by Med against De Minaur doesn't necessarily imply that he'll look great against Sinner as well.
 

marc45

G.O.A.T.
Medvedev played well in part because De Minaur allowed him to play well. Demon has less power than either Fritz or Sinner. His inability to overpower Medvedev means that Medvedev is freer to apply his finesse-based strategies, play cat-and-mouse games, and take control of points with power himself on occasion. It's a good matchup for Medvedev.

As I watched some highlights of Med vs. Demon, I was reminded of Mecir's matchups with Lendl and Wilander. Not that Med is a clone of Mecir by any means, but there are some similarities in their baseline approaches and their overall strengths and vulnerabilities. Mecir was very strong against Wilander -- had a winning H2H and absolutely destroyed Mats on a few occasions. But the Big Cat was generally ineffective against Lendl -- beat him once (at the Lipton, in one of Mecir's best-ever performances), but otherwise lost handily, including a couple of bad defeats in slam finals. Why the different outcomes? Well, I think one reason is that Wilander, with his "softer" game, gave Mecir much more time and space to work his magic. But Lendl was more direct and powerful, and he often pushed Mecir around and simply took control. The bottom line is that a good performance by Med against De Minaur doesn't necessarily imply that he'll look great against Sinner as well.
blast from the past with Mecir...for some reason you inspired me to see if Mecir ever played Sampras, my guy

they played once, at Indian Wells in '89...Mecir lost one game...so he always has that over Pete :)
 

Pheasant

Legend
Hold of serve percentage and break of serve percentage, last 52 weeks, per ATP website:

Sinner: hold%=91.2%(ranked #1); break%=27.9%(ranked #8)

Medvedev: hold%=79.7%(ranked #48); break%=28.0%(ranked #7)

Medvedev should consider having two 1st serves.
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
Hold of serve percentage and break of serve percentage, last 52 weeks, per ATP website:

Sinner: hold%=91.2%(ranked #1); break%=27.9%(ranked #8)

Medvedev: hold%=79.7%(ranked #48); break%=28.0%(ranked #7)

Medvedev should consider having two 1st serves.
Its sad to say Meddy under 80% holds. He is 6'6 and once had very potent serve.
 

buscemi

Legend
Hold of serve percentage and break of serve percentage, last 52 weeks, per ATP website:

Sinner: hold%=91.2%(ranked #1); break%=27.9%(ranked #8)

Medvedev: hold%=79.7%(ranked #48); break%=28.0%(ranked #7)

Medvedev should consider having two 1st serves.
That's basically what he did to Djokovic in Cincinnati in 2019, right?
 

Pheasant

Legend
That's basically what he did to Djokovic in Cincinnati in 2019, right?
You beat me to it. That's exactly what he did. He lost the first set, then got aggressive to pull out that match. This is risky, of course. But his 2nd serves are batting practice for guys like Sinner.
 

socallefty

G.O.A.T.
Ever since Medvedev changed to strings that are softer than what he used to play with, it seems like his serve effectiveness has gone down. He wanted to have more pop on his flat groundstrokes against the higher-fluff slower balls they use in many tournaments, but he seems to have lost the spin he needs to keep his serve % high and serve targets closer to lines.
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
Meddy loves to play crowd to his advantage. Especially if they are against him. But Sinner is rock solid Borg like player.
 

Pheasant

Legend
On hard courts this year, Med has won only 38.3% of his 2nd service points against Sinner. Let's see if that changes today. I'm looking forward to a good match.
 

socallefty

G.O.A.T.
Is there a way to watch this match without subscribing to TC+ in the US? TC seems to be showing the Billie Jean Cup.
 

nolefam_2024

Bionic Poster
On hard courts this year, Med has won only 38.3% of his 2nd service points against Sinner. Let's see if that changes today. I'm looking forward to a good match.
Lung busting rally.

If meddy can't beat sinner by breaking a lot the. He can at least do the same to sinner. No free pts.
 

Pheasant

Legend
So far, Sinner is only getting 44% of his 1st serves in. However, his dominant baseline play has him winning 80% of his 2nd service points(compared to 40% for Med so far).

And yet, they are on serve.
 

Pheasant

Legend
Congrats to Fritz for making the Semis!

As for this match, Sinner is dominating:

roup stage·Center Court
Live

Italy
1J. Sinner600
4D. Medvedev300
2Aces3
0Double faults0
50%First serve %75%
100%Win % on 1st serve72%
82%Win % on 2nd serve33%
1/3Break points0/0
0Tiebreaks won0
9Receiving points won2
29Points won17
6Games won3
3Max games won in a row1
 
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