10 burning questions for the 2025 ATP clay season

Aabye5

Aabye5

Talk Tennis Guru
Ten burning questions for the 2025 clay season:

1. Will anyone stop Novak on the clay?
2. Will Carlos Alcaraz climb out of his rut?
3. Will Holger Rune, Arthur Fils, or any other player between 10 and 20 win a clay M1000?
4. Will Joao Fonseca bring his good form in South America to Europe?
5. Does Alexander Zverev return to the Roland Garros final?
6. Who will be the biggest surprise on clay?
7. Will Stefanos Tsitsipas find more success in Monte Carlo?
8. Where will Novak be seeded in Paris?
9. How do Jack Draper and Jakub Mensik perform on clay after their big wins?
10. Will Jannik Sinner win a clay M1000?

What do you think, TTW?
 
1. Yes
2. Probably
3. No except tsitsipas who can drop out of top 10 early on but is top 10 today.
4. Yes
5. Probably not
6. ...
7. No
8. 4
9. Better than last year. Draper might win a tournament.
10. No
 
Ten burning questions for the 2025 clay season:

My answers, channeling "the magic 8 ball"

1. Will anyone stop Novak on the clay?

Without a doubt

2. Will Carlos Alcaraz climb out of his rut?

Without a doubt

3. Will Holger Rune, Arthur Fils, or any other player between 10 and 20 win a clay M1000?

Outlook Hazy, try again later

4. Will Joao Fonseca bring his good form in South America to Europe?

It is decidedly certain

5. Does Alexander Zverev return to the Roland Garros final?

Reply Hazy, try again

6. Who will be the biggest surprise on clay?

Reply Hazy, try again

7. Will Stefanos Tsitsipas find more success in Monte Carlo?

It is decidedly so

8. Where will Novak be seeded in Paris?

Outlook unclear

9. How do Jack Draper and Jakub Mensik perform on clay after their big wins?

Outlook unclear

10. Will Jannik Sinner win a clay M1000?

Don't count on it, Outlook not so good, My reply is no, Very doubtful and no.
 
1. Yes
2. No he is mentally scarred from the Olympic final and hasn’t improved game wise since 2023.
3. I would say Rune has a solid chance at MC/Rome
4. Yes he will.
5. Depends on his draw. If he draws Alcaraz in the SF, I’d say no. Otherwise, he has a great chance. But no title win irregardless
6. Jannik Sinner. He will win the RG title this year.
7. No
8. He’ll be seeded fifth.
9. Early exits for both - poor physicality for Draper and poor ROS for Mensik. Both of which translates to poor clay court performances.
10. He will not. He will win the biggest prize over 5 sets.
 
Aabye5 said:
1. Will anyone stop Novak on the clay?
Click to expand...
Yes, the combined efforts vs. the field
Aabye5 said:
2. Will Carlos Alcaraz climb out of his rut?
Click to expand...
Partially with question marks remaining
Aabye5 said:
3. Will Holger Rune, Arthur Fils, or any other player between 10 and 20 win a clay M1000?
Click to expand...
Musetti or FAA might
Aabye5 said:
4. Will Joao Fonseca bring his good form in South America to Europe?
Click to expand...
Yes he'll do some damage
Aabye5 said:
5. Does Alexander Zverev return to the Roland Garros final?
Click to expand...
No
Aabye5 said:
6. Who will be the biggest surprise on clay?
Click to expand...
Auger Aliassime
Aabye5 said:
7. Will Stefanos Tsitsipas find more success in Monte Carlo?
Click to expand...
No
Aabye5 said:
8. Where will Novak be seeded in Paris?
Click to expand...
Pass
Aabye5 said:
9. How do Jack Draper and Jakub Mensik perform on clay after their big wins?
Click to expand...
Neither will play a major role
Aabye5 said:
10. Will Jannik Sinner win a clay M1000?
Click to expand...
Yes
 
The first one is not a credible question as it is posed, or is Djokovic almost 38 years old and a Nadal version prime and nobody noticed?

What do you mean someone will stop Djokovic on clay?

The reference point on the surface is currently Alcaraz, having won the last Roland Garros, and Roland Garros is the fulcrum of the clay season that has just begun.
 
Between Draper and Mensik, I currently see Draper as better on the surface.
Mensik on a surface that makes his current main weapon less devastating risks coming out weakened.

Draper, although he has never achieved significant results on clay, having won Indian Wells dominating the Californian tournament on that type of slow surface, then he can also manage to adapt his game on clay, although on clay it is not only the slowness of the surface that requires adaptations but also and above all the way of moving.
Rather, let's see his physical endurance on the surface that exposes his endurance limits more.

On the question about Sinner, even more so after this disqualification that denies him the possibility of participating in the first two Masters 1000 on the surface, for me it could very well happen that on clay he wins the Roland Garros before a Masters 1000.
As of today in 2025 I give him a better chance of winning the Roland Garros rather than Rome, where he could pay for the rust caused by inactivity
 
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Winner Sinner said:
Between Draper and Mensik, I currently see Draper as better on the surface.
Mensik on a surface that makes his current main weapon less devastating risks coming out weakened.

Draper, although he has never achieved significant results on clay, having won Indian Wells dominating the Californian tournament on that type of slow surface, then he can also manage to adapt his game on clay, although on clay it is not only the slowness of the surface that requires adaptations but also and above all the way of moving.
Rather, let's see his physical endurance on the surface that exposes his endurance limits more.

On the question about Sinner, even more so after this disqualification that denies him the possibility of participating in the first two Masters 1000 on the surface, for me it could very well happen that on clay he wins the Roland Garros before a Masters 1000.
As of today in 2025 I give him a better chance of winning the Roland Garros rather than Rome, where he could pay for the rust caused by inactivity
Click to expand...

Genuinely suspect Draper might see a drop after his great run. Just doesn't seem well suited to clay, but I could be wrong.

Mensik is a bit of an interesting case. Agreed that he should disappear for a bit given that his game is so service based, but the Czechs seem to have had quite a decent amount of success on the clay even in this century - Big Berd had a semi, Hrbaty as well...and that's not including WTA players.
 
Aabye5 said:
Genuinely suspect Draper might see a drop after his great run. Just doesn't seem well suited to clay, but I could be wrong.

Mensik is a bit of an interesting case. Agreed that he should disappear for a bit given that his game is so service based, but the Czechs seem to have had quite a decent amount of success on the clay even in this century - Big Berd had a semi, Hrbaty as well...and that's not including WTA players.
Click to expand...
But historically for Berdych clay is the surface where he has collected the least.

Having said that, I don't understand the correlation depending on nationality.
With this way of reasoning then Sinner instead of dominating on hard should dominate on clay, since historically clay has always been, with rare exceptions, the surface where Italian tennis players have expressed themselves best.

Now I don't rule out that Mensik can do something good also in this upcoming season on clay, but in terms of characteristics it is the one that theoretically marries him the worst.
Obviously Mensik is anything but a classic servebot, having a solid game from the baseline, but Miami won him above all by leveraging his devastating serve.
He can't guarantee that type of advantage on clay, or rather, not at such extreme levels.

Having said that, obviously we are reasoning with a view to 2025, because in perspective by continuing to evolve his game, even Mensik can adapt to a surface like clay.
If Zverev has managed to become one of the best clay court players of the last 10 years, I don't see why Mensik can't do the same.
I just don't see him ready to compete for the most important tournaments on the surface yet.
 
Aabye5 said:
Ten burning questions for the 2025 clay season:

1. Will anyone stop Novak on the clay?
2. Will Carlos Alcaraz climb out of his rut?
3. Will Holger Rune, Arthur Fils, or any other player between 10 and 20 win a clay M1000?
4. Will Joao Fonseca bring his good form in South America to Europe?
5. Does Alexander Zverev return to the Roland Garros final?
6. Who will be the biggest surprise on clay?
7. Will Stefanos Tsitsipas find more success in Monte Carlo?
8. Where will Novak be seeded in Paris?
9. How do Jack Draper and Jakub Mensik perform on clay after their big wins?
10. Will Jannik Sinner win a clay M1000?

What do you think, TTW?
Click to expand...

1) As already said, a question that I don't understand both because it alludes to Djokovic being the reference of the circuit on the surface, and he isn't, but also because it is too generic, what does it mean to stop Djokovic on clay?
If by some absurd chance he were to win Monte Carlo, Madrid, Paris but not Rome, what would it mean that since he didn't win everything someone stopped him?
Meh...

2) Alcaraz is more competitive on clay than on hard, so one scenario doesn't exclude the other.
So far Alcaraz's regression is limited to hard surfaces.

3) I wouldn't rule out a success for Rune in one of the 3 Masters 1000 on the surface.
So it could happen.

4) Fonseca can bring the level seen in Buenos Aires to European clay as well, but it wouldn't be enough for him to achieve a great exploit, to do so he has to raise that level even further, but perhaps it's still too early for him.

5) It depends on the draw, if he is seeded number 2 and does not find Alcaraz in his part of the draw, then he will be the favorite to reach the final, with Sinneraz like last year in the semifinals on the opposite side.
6) It depends on what surprise means.
I say that Tsitsipas could be, but would it really be a surprise if he had a great clay season similar to the 2021 one?

7) He will be one of the favorites.
It is his tournament and this year he arrives better than last year.

8) Here too it depends on the draw.
If in the possible quarterfinals he gets one of Sinner, Alcaraz or Zverev, I see him as an underdog and therefore a loser with each of them, but if he gets Fritz, Draper, or someone else, he can also reach the semifinals.
But I would be surprised to see him in the final at Roland Garros again.

9) and 10) Already answered.
 
Winner Sinner said:
But historically for Berdych clay is the surface where he has collected the least.

Having said that, I don't understand the correlation depending on nationality.
With this way of reasoning then Sinner instead of dominating on hard should dominate on clay, since historically clay has always been, with rare exceptions, the surface where Italian tennis players have expressed themselves best.

Now I don't rule out that Mensik can do something good also in this upcoming season on clay, but in terms of characteristics it is the one that theoretically marries him the worst.
Obviously Mensik is anything but a classic servebot, having a solid game from the baseline, but Miami won him above all by leveraging his devastating serve.
He can't guarantee that type of advantage on clay, or rather, not at such extreme levels.

Having said that, obviously we are reasoning with a view to 2025, because in perspective by continuing to evolve his game, even Mensik can adapt to a surface like clay.
If Zverev has managed to become one of the best clay court players of the last 10 years, I don't see why Mensik can't do the same.
I just don't see him ready to compete for the most important tournaments on the surface yet.
Click to expand...

In his early days, Sinner was compared to his compatriot Andreas Seppi by some. Both are from Tyrol, obviously, and Seppo also performed better on hard courts. Interestingly, he also captured titles on both grass and clay, showcasing his versatility.

To answer your implicit question, I would say there is a Czech brand of tennis. Not quite as distinct as say the American brand of tennis, but it exists. It tends to feature heavy hitters with clean strokes. Ivan Lendl is clearly the king, but Berdych, Lehecka, Petr Korda, and now Machac and Mensik, all play a variation. And they have tended to favor hard courts, but seen some success on grass and clay as well.
 
Aabye5 said:
In his early days, Sinner was compared to his compatriot Andreas Seppi by some. Both are from Tyrol, obviously, and Seppo also performed better on hard courts. Interestingly, he also captured titles on both grass and clay, showcasing his versatility.

To answer your implicit question, I would say there is a Czech brand of tennis. Not quite as distinct as say the American brand of tennis, but it exists. It tends to feature heavy hitters with clean strokes. Ivan Lendl is clearly the king, but Berdych, Lehecka, Petr Korda, and now Machac and Mensik, all play a variation. And they have tended to favor hard courts, but seen some success on grass and clay as well.
Click to expand...
Seppi is not only from Sinner's region but was also his first role model in tennis, after all in Alto Adige, an area with a vocation for winter sports, professional tennis players are rare, so having an example like Seppi was important, as if to say "if he made it starting from Alto Adige then I can make it too"

That said, ok, I understand your point, but for me it is always wrong to generalise.
Think of the Swedish school of the past, initially all players modelled on the style of their idol Borg came out, obviously Wilander above all, therefore baseline specialists, but then an Edberg came out who was the very antithesis of a Borg.
PS
Seppi and Sinner are altoatesini at most South Tyroleans.
To call both Tyroleans is to be unaware of current geographical distinctions.
 
Winner Sinner said:
Seppi is not only from Sinner's region but was also his first role model in tennis, after all in Alto Adige, an area with a vocation for winter sports, professional tennis players are rare, so having an example like Seppi was important, as if to say "if he made it starting from Alto Adige then I can make it too"

That said, ok, I understand your point, but for me it is always wrong to generalise.
Think of the Swedish school of the past, initially all players modelled on the style of their idol Borg came out, obviously Wilander above all, therefore baseline specialists, but then an Edberg came out who was the very antithesis of a Borg.
PS
Seppi and Sinner are altoatesini at most South Tyroleans.
To call both Tyroleans is to be unaware of current geographical distinctions.
Click to expand...
It's a lovely region of Italy. Enjoyed skiing there
 
Winner Sinner said:
Seppi is not only from Sinner's region but was also his first role model in tennis, after all in Alto Adige, an area with a vocation for winter sports, professional tennis players are rare, so having an example like Seppi was important, as if to say "if he made it starting from Alto Adige then I can make it too"

That said, ok, I understand your point, but for me it is always wrong to generalise.
Think of the Swedish school of the past, initially all players modelled on the style of their idol Borg came out, obviously Wilander above all, therefore baseline specialists, but then an Edberg came out who was the very antithesis of a Borg.
PS
Seppi and Sinner are altoatesini at most South Tyroleans.
To call both Tyroleans is to be unaware of current geographical distinctions.
Click to expand...
Yes, certainly players can break out of a mold. But in this case it is also true that there is a mold.

That isn't necessarily the case for countries that don't have a strong history of tennis success.
 
Aabye5 said:
Ten burning questions for the 2025 clay season:

1. Will anyone stop Novak on the clay? - Yes, Djokovic has never gone undefeated on clay
2. Will Carlos Alcaraz climb out of his rut? - Yes, i expect him to pick up by Barcelona
3. Will Holger Rune, Arthur Fils, or any other player between 10 and 20 win a clay M1000? - Not sure
4. Will Joao Fonseca bring his good form in South America to Europe? - Yes, he will.
5. Does Alexander Zverev return to the Roland Garros final? - He needs a good draw and a very solid clay season first, last year he won Rome
6. Who will be the biggest surprise on clay? - Not sure
7. Will Stefanos Tsitsipas find more success in Monte Carlo? - I think he will do well, I don't think he wins it.
8. Where will Novak be seeded in Paris? - He will get the 4th seeding, that is his goal right now.
9. How do Jack Draper and Jakub Mensik perform on clay after their big wins? - They will do well, both have big games, but I don't think either is ready for winning RG
10. Will Jannik Sinner win a clay M1000? - He only has one shot and that is in Rome, tough ask to win his first clay event back after many months off. I think he will have a deep run.

What do you think, TTW?
Click to expand...
 
Aabye5 said:
Ten burning questions for the 2025 clay season:

1. Will anyone stop Novak on the clay?
Click to expand...
In masters definitely. At RG it would be tougher.
Aabye5 said:
2. Will Carlos Alcaraz climb out of his rut?
Click to expand...
If he wins a masters title before RG, then yes, otherwise no.
Aabye5 said:
3. Will Holger Rune, Arthur Fils, or any other player between 10 and 20 win a clay M1000?
Click to expand...
Holger has a chance. But anyone can win a M1000 these days.
Aabye5 said:
4. Will Joao Fonseca bring his good form in South America to Europe?
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I think so.
Aabye5 said:
5. Does Alexander Zverev return to the Roland Garros final?
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I'm gonna answer no to this.
Aabye5 said:
6. Who will be the biggest surprise on clay?
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Fedr
Aabye5 said:
7. Will Stefanos Tsitsipas find more success in Monte Carlo?
Click to expand...
If he avoids Alcaraz and Djokovic, then sure.
Aabye5 said:
8. Where will Novak be seeded in Paris?
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4th.
Aabye5 said:
9. How do Jack Draper and Jakub Mensik perform on clay after their big wins?
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Not well.
Aabye5 said:
10. Will Jannik Sinner win a clay M1000?
Click to expand...
You're basically asking whether he'll win Rome. No idea.
 
My picks for surprises: Rune and Fils

I'd like to pick Félix, but he is the most hit-or-miss player on Tour these days.
 
The burning question to every clay season is who will win the FO? After not having suspense for a long time, the last few years have provided interesting answers. Who will win the FO in 2025? Who has a strong chance?
 
socallefty said:
The burning question to every clay season is who will win the FO? After not having suspense for a long time, the last few years have provided interesting answers. Who will win the FO in 2025? Who has a strong chance?
Click to expand...

Yes, very true. Do you have an answer? For me, the question cannot be posed until after at least a few events are played, since the change of seasons is so dramatic (and even more so the grass season). Some players don't adjust well, others surprise.

And this year, it is even more true since Sinner is missing.
 
Aabye5 said:
Do you have an answer?
Click to expand...
There does not seem to be any clearcut choices. Who knows how Sinner will perform coming back from a 3-month ban? Alcaraz, Zverev, Ruud and Djokovic haven’t looked great in the last few months. Tsitsipas has been in a long slump apart from one tournament. And those are the finalists of the last few years and top seed. Others who are in the Top 10 like Fritz, Rublev, ADM don’t seem like the types to win the FO as their first Slam. New guys who have looked good like Mensik, Draper, Fonseca either don’t have a game suitable for clay or are too young.

If you were betting, you would have to go with Sinner or Alcaraz finding form. Zverev, Ruud and Tsitsipas might be in the next tier favored to make semifinals. For me, Djokovic is a total wildcard as it seems hard to tell whether he will play well or get knocked out early in tournaments. I don’t know if his body will even last through the clay season without injury after recent knee and hamstring injuries which tend to recur.
 
Last edited:
socallefty said:
There don’t seem to be any clearcut choices. Who knows how Sinner will perform coming back from a 3-month ban? Alcaraz, Zverev, Ruud and Djokovic haven’t looked great in the last few months. Tsitsipas has been in a long slump apart from one tournament. And those are the finalists of the last few years and top seed. Others who are in the Top 10 like Fritz, Rublev, ADM don’t seem like the types to win the FO as their first Slam. New guys who have looked good like Mensik, Draper, Fonseca either don’t have a game suitable for clay or are too young.

If you were betting, you would have to go with Sinner or Alcaraz finding form. Zverev, Ruud and Tsitsipas might be in the next tier favored to make semifinals. For me, Djokovic is a total wildcard as it seems hard to tell whether he will play well or get knocked out early in tournaments. I don’t know if his body will even last through the clay season without injury after recent knee and hamstring injuries which tend to recur.
Click to expand...

Right, everything you said makes a lot of sense. Which is why I left it off the burning questions list, for now. But remember, these are 10 burning questions, not THE burning questions ;)
 
nolefam_2024 said:
1. Yes
2. Probably
3. No except tsitsipas who can drop out of top 10 early on but is top 10 today.
4. Yes
5. Probably not
6. ...
7. No
8. 4
9. Better than last year. Draper might win a tournament.
10. No
Click to expand...
Draper in qf now with a good chance to win the whole thing.
 
Last edited:
McGradey said:
Yes, the combined efforts vs. the field

Partially with question marks remaining

Musetti or FAA might

Yes he'll do some damage

No

Auger Aliassime

No

Pass

Neither will play a major role

Yes
Click to expand...

Jinx, you owe a soda! Not only do FAA and Moose not win one, but Jackie D is playing well on the clay and Ruud (!) is taking home M1000titles.

Thankfully, Jannik Sinner is back. Order restored.
 
Aabye5 said:
Jinx, you owe a soda! Not only do FAA and Moose not win one, but Jackie D is playing well on the clay and Ruud (!) is taking home M1000titles.

Thankfully, Jannik Sinner is back. Order restored.
Click to expand...
My predictions were looking alright there for a while, then Draper and Musetti brought it all crumbling down. Mensik and Tstsipas did their jobs lol.
 
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