The notion that peak Courier would have nothing but his sledgehammer FH on any version of Djokovic at RG is nonsense, of course, but even if that were true a FH advantage alone can be decisive on clay (hello Berasategui!) as long as it allows him to dictate the majority of rallies. And I guarantee you that, equalized for paraphernalia (more or less), Jim would hit a bigger, heavier ball off his FH than Novak.
Now one could counter, not unfairly, that Fed himself has/had a similar FH advantage and arguably as good a BH, but here's the thing: Jim's BH, while not pretty or flashy, was rock solid especially on slower courts, and on clay brilliance and versatility take a back seat to consistency and reliability. I'll quote what
@encylopedia told me earlier in a private chat:
Yes, the Courier backhand gets a bad rap now. Ugly? Ok....subjective - I never thought it was either beautiful or ugly.....I did like the uniqueness of it. It had strengths and weakness like anyone else....his grip meant he could get a lot of spin, but couldn't hit through it the same way Agassi could. He also couldn't easily put as much juice on low balls as Agassi could - Agassi was very eastern on his top hand - almost continental at some times! Agassi was also able to hold it longer and be more deceptive as his contact point was much farther back. On the other hand, though Courier didn't have quite that remarkable hand-eye Agassi had on return (though I'm not sure it was far off considering he had that tiny pro staff and agassi had a oversize), his grip enabled him to pound down a high kicking ball quite naturally.
In any case, far from a weakness......could only be exploited if you had the right came to run him way wide on the forehand and then pound the backhand corner.....but....that's not really a weakness....that's great tennis from the other guy, and potentially works on anyone! lol. I guess I might say he had a #1 in the world forehand and a #20 in the world backhand.... Djoko has a #1 class backhand and top 10 forehand......but a #50 serve.... [he did qualify this latter ranking of the Djokovic serve later]
And Jim certainly would not yield an inch to Novak on serve as his 89.3% of service games won on clay in '92 (excluding TBs and Kitzbuhel after Wimbledon - see below) would translate to about 90.7% today, Novak's career high in '15. If anything the Courier serve might be a hair better.
The movement does go to Novak peak for peak, but as
I've pointed out the reason why such giraffes as Gomez, A. Medvedev, Norman, Verkerk and Soderling have had their best results at RG is because speed and explosiveness matter less than balance and sliding on dirt, and Jim's footwork (since '92 at any rate) was as textbook as they come. And while you could argue that post-gluten Djoko was just as fit as Courier not even peak Novak could match Jim's virtually bottomless shot tolerance, perhaps the most underrated "weapon" on dirt. cyclo touched on this area earlier:
The problem Djokovic will have in trying to neutralize Courier is that he has the court coverage to make life miserable, but he plays further back than Agassi or Sampras did. He would probably try a more Bruguera-like strategy to wear Courier down, and it's certainly possible he can do it at times. He also is good enough to play up and potentially beat Courier at times doing that as well. Both will win their share of matches but the nod should go to Courier for his record and dominance (short lived as it was).
All in all I see (peak) Courier in 4, with the occasional 5-setter going his way all the same. Of course Novak would get his share of matches, but if they both brought their very best Jim would come out ahead.
One more thing (or several):
wut ?
comparision should be b/w 92 Courier and 11/15/13/16 RG djokovic.
92 courier runs circles around 19 RG djokovic.
Thiem started off well vs djoko in 19 RG semi, but then started messing/missing - which is why it went 5 sets.
As you might have noticed
Thiem is simply not the King (of Clay) slayer he's been hyped as. The guy struggles to clear even 30% in RGW and they say he'd do much better vs. elite dirtballers of the past? Puh-lease.
And even as a fan I say Novak's CC credentials are inflated, too. Here are his %s of games won on clay (TBs included from here on, yes even from smaller events, but DC stats are excluded for apples-to-apples comparisons) since '04, his 1st season with a tour-level win:
2004 - 44.9%
2005 - 54.5%
2006 - 58.0%
2007 - 54.4%
2008 - 61.4%
2009 - 60.3%
2010 - 58.7%
2011 - 63.0%
2012 - 57.6%
2013 - 59.2%
2014 - 60.6%
2015 - 62.2%
2016 - 60.0%
2017 - 56.8%
2018 - 56.8%
2019 - 59.6%
Career - 58.8%
A very impressive career average for sure, one that anyone not named Rafael Nadal or Bjorn Borg (I suspect Lendl, too) would be glad to have - any member of
the 60% Club is in elite company and he's broken the ceiling a whopping
five times, seven if you round up the '16 and '19 %s - but except for '11 and perhaps '15 it's fairly run-of-the-mill stuff for FO champs. Compare that to Courier's eye-popping 66.1% in the '92 CC swing (his losses at Kitzbuhel, the Olympics and the DC SF came after Wimbledon), easily the most dominant since '91 save a few from you-know-who. But we're being told that the guy who struggles vs. Thiem would somehow get the better of this certified CC great at his absolute peak. Dunno about you but that sounds like a reach to me.
Ah, but all these #s don't mean a thing unless you can continue that run into RG, right? OK, then let's look at Novak's GW%s from his most successful FO runs (SF or higher):
2007 - 54.9%
2008 - 58.7%
2011 - 60.1%
2012 - 59.5%
2013 - 59.0%
2014 - 60.7%
2015 - 60.9%
2016 - 64.9%
2019 - 63.0%
As you can see Djoko usually failed to improve his season % or even worse at RG except in '16 and '19, so what did his draws in those two years look like? Apart from Murray and Thiem I can't think of a big-name opponent from those editions, and turns out that's not a memory lapse:
2016
F - Murray
SF - Thiem
QF - Berdych
4R - Bautista Agut
3R - Bedene
2R - Darcis
1R - Lu
2019
SF - Thiem
QF - Zverev
4R - Struff
3R - Caruso
2R - Laaksonen
1R - Hurkacz
Now Andy did win 58.8% of his games on clay in '16, but that's usually not enough to get you over the last hump vs. a quality opponent. Thiem for his part won an underwhelming 56.1% in '19 and a middling 55.4% in '17 despite entering a bunch of 3rd-rate events (Buenos Aires and Rio before IW and Kitzbuhel after Wimby in both years plus Hamburg after Wimby in '19) - to put this in perspective even Pete won 60.8% and 60.1% in the '93 and '94 CC swings (sans Atlanta on green clay in '93 and the WTC in both years which was an exo in all but name), back when he was still trying to win RG - and while '16 was one of Berd's better CC seasons he still won a paltry 53.0%.
And despite this lackluster opposition Novak's career-best 64.9% in '16 falls well short of
Jim's historic 67.5% in '92 against these big names:
F - Korda
SF - Agassi
QF - Ivanisevic
4R - Medvedev, A.
3R - Mancini
2R - Muster
1R - Kroon
Only Kroon in the 1st round could be described as an unknown quantity. Even if you take into account the actual performance of these guys I don't see how anyone even remotely familiar with the '90s could say this draw isn't tougher than Novak's in 16. At the very least it's comparable, and Courier still outdid Djokovic by almost 3% in GW which could well mean the difference between champion and runner-up.
But Nadal renders all this moot, you say? I've already looked at
Rafa's '05 and '06 seasons and explained why even that hopping wunderkind with pirate pants wouldn't be a sure bet vs. Courier, Bruguera or Kuerten at his best, but let's turn to his '13 CC swing as that year's FO SF tends to get all the attention as Novak's claim to clay GOAThood. So that Rafa posted an overall 62.9% in GW - an impressive # for almost anyone, but not by his own sky-high standards or even those of peak Courier who won 66.1% and 63.8% at Rome and RG in '92 and '93 respectively while '13 Rafa padded his % a bit by skipping the AO and playing Vina del Mar, Sao Paulo, Acapulco before IW. And their %s at RG diverge even further with Rafa's 60.9% falling well short of Jim's 67.5% in '92 or even 61.2% in '93, the latter despite facing in
Bruguera one of the most dominant dirtballers in FO history. Again it's quite debatable whether '13 Rafa prevails over this Courier or Bruguera at RG, but somehow Novak would be able to handle these guys just fine? Sorry but I don't see it. (To be continued.)