[2]Rafael Nadal vs [3] Roger Federer 2012 Australian Open Semifinal

[monfed]

Nearly 20% of their matches have been on outdoor hard - Rafa leads 4-1. They've played more outdoor hard matches than they have indoor.

I'm not trying to rile you batz, but -


Of those 4 wins, 2 are in Miami - Slow high bouncing HC..Easily the slowest HC on the tour.

1 in Dubai - This is about as quick as Indian wells,faster than Miami. But let's take this one instance as an exception.

1 in AO (Plexicushion Prestige) - Slow, high bouncing HC.

Not to take anything away from great Nadal, but the guy has won when the conditions suited him instead of Federer.

Do let me know when Nadal beats Federer on a fast HC or if the conditions suited Federer for ONCE instead of Nadal on an "outdoor" HC.

Btw Federer leads indoors where conditions suit Federer more than Nadal(thanks to the low bounce) 4-0. Nadal has only won one set.

Federer has ATLEAST beaten Nadal twice on clay(conditions loaded HEAVILY in favour of Nadal).


That H2H is used wayyy too loosely to bring down Federer. I'm quite frankly sick of it(nothing against you batz, but generally).

PS - I didn't mean to derail this thread but I just wish people kept things in perspective(not you specifically batz.) about that incredibly misleading H2H.

 

[Sid_Vicious]

Fed in 5. This should have been the final not a freakin semi.

Thank goodness it is not the final. People go crazy for these Fedal matches even though the vast majority of them have ended up with Federer getting dismantled badly like Nadal when he plays Djokovic. However, no one hypes up Djokovic-Nadal finals.

 

[jaggy]

I just think Nad has too much for him

 

[gsharma]

Thank goodness it is not the final. People go crazy for these Fedal matches even though the vast majority of them have ended up with Federer getting dismantled badly like Nadal when he plays Djokovic. However, no one hypes up Djokovic-Nadal finals.

Well, Fedal finals are anticipated for a reason. Other than the French finals, all their matches have been super entertaining.

These two will beat each other up and that chump Joker, will have an easy final.

 

[Seany]

When is the match? Friday?

 

[Deleted member 77403]

I'm not trying to rile you batz, but -


Of those 4 wins, 2 are in Miami - Slow high bouncing HC..Easily the slowest HC on the tour.

1 in Dubai - This is about as quick as Indian wells,faster than Miami. But let's take this one instance as an exception.

1 in AO (Plexicushion Prestige) - Slow, high bouncing HC.

Not to take anything away from great Nadal, but the guy has won when the conditions suited him instead of Federer.

Do let me know when Nadal beats Federer on a fast HC or if the conditions suited Federer for ONCE instead of Nadal on an "outdoor" HC.

Btw Federer leads indoors where conditions suit Federer more than Nadal(thanks to the low bounce) 4-0. Nadal has only won one set.

Federer has ATLEAST beaten Nadal twice on clay(conditions loaded HEAVILY in favour of Nadal).


That H2H is used wayyy too loosely to bring down Federer. I'm quite frankly sick of it(nothing against you batz, but generally).

PS - I didn't mean to derail this thread but I just wish people kept things in perspective(not you specifically batz.) about that incredibly misleading H2H.

Dubai was a fast court, and really Federer should have won that match. Nadal had no answers at the start, and Federer blew many chances in the second and third, but Nadal managed to stop the boat from rocking excessively on his end.

 

[Deleted member 77403]

Well, Fedal finals are anticipated for a reason. Other than the French finals, all their matches have been super entertaining.

These two will beat each other up and that chump Joker, will have an easy final.

Joker beat them both in the US Open, so I don't think he has problem whether they beat each other up or not. Plus the winner of this match gets an additional day's rest.

 

[Sid_Vicious]

Well, Fedal finals are anticipated for a reason. Other than the French finals, all their matches have been super entertaining.

These two will beat each other up and that chump Joker, will have an easy final.

Yep, last "great" final they played was 3 years ago and Federer ended up blowing about 9000 opportunities to take the upper hand in the match, got blown out 6-2 in the final set, and embarrassed himself in the trophy presentation.

That "chump" does not seem to need a handicap to beat Federer and Nadal. Federer has gotten straight setted by Djokovic twice at the australian. Nadal can be as fresh as possible, he will still be the underdog against Djokovic.

 

[Deleted member 77403]

Yep, last "great" final they played was 3 years ago and Federer ended up blowing about 9000 opportunities to take the upper hand in the match, getting blown out 6-2 in the final set, and embarrassed himself in the trophy presentation.

That "chump" does not seem to need a handicap to beat Federer and Nadal. Federer has gotten straight setted by Djokovic twice at the australian. Nadal can be as fresh as possible, he will still be the underdog against Djokovic.

Djokovic has beaten Federer in every HC slam since Federer won his last hardcourt slam. He doesn't need any favors to do it again.

He has also hammered Nadal six straight finals, including two slam finals. So again, he needs to no favors to put a beat down on him again.

 

[monfed]

Dubai was a fast court, and really Federer should have won that match. Nadal had no answers at the start, and Federer blew many chances in the second and third, but Nadal managed to stop the boat from rocking excessively on his end.

I'd say it's medium fast. Certainly not as quick as Cincy.

 

[Geology_Rocks!]

Fed in 3 just because I can't pick Fed in 2! :twisted:

 

[ZeroSkid]

Whatever. 2005-2006 Federer would beat the crap out of 2012 Federer

I have to disagree Fed is a better player at the moment, physically of course he is not as sharp, but other than that he seems better now

 

[Russeljones]

Nadal in 4

Saw your predictions and commentary in the Federer - Del Potro thread. Your tennis IQ is lower than room temperature, and I mean Celsius.

 

[Sid_Vicious]

I have to disagree Fed is a better player at the moment, physically of course he is not as sharp, but other than that he seems better now

lol.Do you also disagree that 2+2=4? :???: Saying that Federer is playing his best at 30 is extremely counterintuitive.

 

[MrFlip]

Federer fan but I get the feeling that this will be more like Miami 2011. Dark times for Fed fans im afraid.

 

[zagor]

Well, Fedal finals are anticipated for a reason. Other than the French finals, all their matches have been super entertaining.

These two will beat each other up and that chump Joker, will have an easy final.

Novak is not a chump, he's a champ and the last slam before this one he beat Fedal back to back.

 

[TTMR]

Part of the reason Federer looks good right now is Del Potro, a normally difficult opponent, did not play nearly his best, and basically resigned in the third set.

Part of the reason Nadal "looks bad" right now is his opponent, Berdych, was playing out of his mind, and continued to throughout the whole match while Nadal gradually stepped it up.

Berdych likely would have straight setted Del Potro yesterday as well, so after accounting for quality of opposition, we can safely say both Federer and Nadal are in top form.

Given history, rankings and the age of each, one has to consider Nadal the favourite. My prediction is, Federer wins the first set, TT server crashes, Nadal cruises from there on in.

 

[Seany]

Is it Friday?

I need to plan my schedule around this !!??

 

[gsharma]

Novak is not a chump, he's a champ and the last slam before this one he beat Fedal back to back.

I know Joker beat Fedal back-to-back at the US Open. I also realize he's your countryman but the guy with the mysterious doctor in his team is still a chump to me.

 

[zagor]

Nearly 20% of their matches have been on outdoor hard - Rafa leads 4-1. They've played more outdoor hard matches than they have indoor.

Yes but they mostly played in Miami which is a specific HC and IMO the worst surface for Fed to play Nadal on, if 2005 Miami wasn't a BO5 match Nadal would have had 3 straight set wins(two of them demolitions) while on clay most of their matches go the distance (Nadal only really destroyed Fed once on clay, that being 2008 FO final).

However Nadal also beat Fed in Dubai and AO plexicushion which are good surfaces for Fed to play Nadal on so your overall point still stands.

Nadal is the favourite in this match (let's say 60-40 favourite) but I firmly believe Roger has a decent chance to pull off a win this time around, I may be wrong but that how I feel.

 

[zagor]

I know Joker beat Fedal back-to-back at the US Open. I also realize he's your countryman but the guy with the mysterious doctor in his team is still a chump to me.

You're entitled to your opinion, I still consider him to be a champ not a chump.

 

[NamRanger]

Nearly 20% of their matches have been on outdoor hard - Rafa leads 4-1. They've played more outdoor hard matches than they have indoor.

And most of their meetings are past 2007. It's a skewed statistic and you know it.

 

[clayman2000]

Form says Federer.
Style matchup says Nadal.
History says Nadal
Wildcard is Federer's serve

This could go either way. That being said, I expect the man who takes the 1st set will win the match. In 8 of their 9 GS meetings, the set 1 winner takes the match (the exception was 06 french)

 

[niff]

Is it Friday?

I need to plan my schedule around this !!??

Thursday! Night, I presume.

 

[MG1]

Best for indian tennis fans...Republic day holiday treat to watch in afternoon

 

[zagor]

Form says Federer.
Style matchup says Nadal.
History says Nadal
Wildcard is Federer's serve

This could go either way. That being said, I expect the man who takes the 1st set will win the match. In 8 of their 9 GS meetings, the set 1 winner takes the match (the exception was 06 french)

I think 1st set is more crucial for Fed than for Nadal honestly. Nadal's record overall once he takes the 1st set in a slam is ridiculously good(almost flawless), I think the only who beat Nadal in a slam after losing a 1st set is Ferrer in 2007 USO.

 

[charliefedererer]

I see many Fed fans falling into the same trap yet again. Thinking how Fed plays in previous rounds has any indication of how he will play against Nadal.

Agreed.

Fed has put on a clinic his last two matches.

Last night he had the perfect game plan and execution for del Potro.

It looks like he has done his homework to play the heavy ball strikers like del Pro and Soderling. (Especially as Juan has not rounded into peak form.)

Fed's backhand looks unusually solid, his footwork tremendous.


But Nadal is an entirely different story.

Nadal's topspin pounding of his backhand, plus Rafa's unbelievable speed and huge heart have usually been too much for Rog to overcome on slow hard court surfaces (essentially impossible on clay).



I do have a favorite in this contest - US!

I'm hoping for another epic 5 set epic confrontation setting new records for most winners and fewest unforced errors in a Slam event.

 

[FlashFlare11]

I think 1st set is more crucial for Fed than for Nadal honestly. Nadal's record overall once he takes the 1st set in a slam is ridiculously good(almost flawless), I think the only who beat Nadal in a slam after losing a 1st set is Ferrer in 2007 USO.

The first set is far more important for Federer than for Nadal. Though, I liked what I saw from Roger during the RG final last year, where he lost a very close first set but kept fighting in the second. Hopefully, if he does lose the first, he can recover.

He just needs to stay ultra aggressive and take chances. They will start paying off. He needs to exploit Nadal's backhand, that's what won him the 6-0 set in November.

I think that if he can mentally stay in the match, he can win. He just needs to remember that WTF match and how he played then. I'm sure he and Annacone are watching replays of that and the AO09 final.

 

[Rusty669]

Q. Those Rafa comments before the start of the tournament are probably forgotten for you, but does this make a difference if you play against him in the semifinal? Does it change something?

ROGER FEDERER: No. No. Honestly, no. It was here for one day and then gone again. I'm happy about that, because it didn't deserve more attention than it did.

Yeah, so for me it's another great match with Rafa potentially, but he's got a tough task with Berdych first.

But obviously I'd like to play Rafa because of our great epic match earlier in the finals here a few years ago. I'd like to get a chance to play him again here.



Q. Does it feel different being on the same side of the draw as him for the first time a long time? You met him several Grand Slam finals. Obviously first time in a semi potentially since '05.

ROGER FEDERER: Yeah, it's been a long time. I don't know when the last time has been when we played in the semis of a slam. Maybe back in 2005 maybe at the French potentially, I don't know.

But it's true, we have been, you know, on opposite sides of the draw many times. I didn't even play Murray last year, you know, because we were ranked I guess 3 and 4, so we always ran into Novak or ‑‑ I basically always ran into Novak.

I guess it's a nice changeup. Okay, it doesn't allow a rematch for the Australian Open final here, you know, if Murray were to play Novak. But I think it's good for tennis that it changes up a bit. Like I said, I'd love to play Rafa in the semis if it happens.
http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/news/interviews/2012-01-24/201201241327394993764.html

Roger seems to be be quite geed up for this match!

 

[gsharma]

You're entitled to your opinion, I still consider him to be a champ not a chump.

Yeah of course. He's a great player but just rubs me the wrong way.

 

[Seany]

Thursday! Night, I presume.

US or Melbourne time?

 

[Sid_Vicious]

US or Melbourne time?

Night Match in Melbourne would be early A.M hours on Thursday in the east coast of the USA. Probably 3 AM.

 

[veritech]

Night Match in Melbourne would be early A.M hours on Thursday in the east coast of the USA. Probably 3 AM.

i think it's safe to assume they're semi #1.

Thu., Jan. 26, M Semifinal #1, 3:30 a.m. - 6 a.m., ESPN2 Live Eastern Time

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/tennis/01/13/australian-open-tv-schedule/index.html

US west coasters, this means wee into wednesday night...

 

[zagor]

Q. Those Rafa comments before the start of the tournament are probably forgotten for you, but does this make a difference if you play against him in the semifinal? Does it change something?

ROGER FEDERER: No. No. Honestly, no. It was here for one day and then gone again. I'm happy about that, because it didn't deserve more attention than it did.

Yeah, so for me it's another great match with Rafa potentially, but he's got a tough task with Berdych first.

But obviously I'd like to play Rafa because of our great epic match earlier in the finals here a few years ago. I'd like to get a chance to play him again here.



Q. Does it feel different being on the same side of the draw as him for the first time a long time? You met him several Grand Slam finals. Obviously first time in a semi potentially since '05.

ROGER FEDERER: Yeah, it's been a long time. I don't know when the last time has been when we played in the semis of a slam. Maybe back in 2005 maybe at the French potentially, I don't know.

But it's true, we have been, you know, on opposite sides of the draw many times. I didn't even play Murray last year, you know, because we were ranked I guess 3 and 4, so we always ran into Novak or ‑‑ I basically always ran into Novak.

I guess it's a nice changeup. Okay, it doesn't allow a rematch for the Australian Open final here, you know, if Murray were to play Novak. But I think it's good for tennis that it changes up a bit. Like I said, I'd love to play Rafa in the semis if it happens.
http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/news/interviews/2012-01-24/201201241327394993764.html

Roger seems to be be quite geed up for this match!

That's just Fed trolling his fans(giving us false hope ) , he can be a heartless SOB at times.

 

[nadalwon2012]

Given Federer's awful memories of the 2009 AO final, I think if Nadal comes out of the blocks fast and wins the first set comfortably it will be all over in 3 sets. I know Nadal didn't put Federer away quickly in the RG final after taking the 1st set but Nadal was very nervous that day as he tied Borg's RG titles record. Toni and Nadal must focus on a fast start (not sure how you do that).

 

[zagor]

The first set is far more important for Federer than for Nadal. Though, I liked what I saw from Roger during the RG final last year, where he lost a very close first set but kept fighting in the second. Hopefully, if he does lose the first, he can recover.

He just needs to stay ultra aggressive and take chances. They will start paying off. He needs to exploit Nadal's backhand, that's what won him the 6-0 set in November.

I think that if he can mentally stay in the match, he can win. He just needs to remember that WTF match and how he played then. I'm sure he and Annacone are watching replays of that and the AO09 final.

I don't think he should be ultra agressive against Nadal, he won't be able to hit winners as easily as he did at WTF with its predictable bounce. I also don't think he and Annacone will study 2009 AO final, that was 3 years ago, for better or worse both Fed and Nadal are somewhat different players compared to then.

He'll need to be patient in a rally but as soon as he gets an attackable ball pull the trigger, he has to find the right balance as going for low % shots too early in the rally too often is not gonna work over a BO5 match but then again he also can't get too passive or Nadal will move him side to side like a ragdoll as soon as Fed coughs up a short ball.

He'll also need to come over his BH on the ROS, no point chipping the ball back to Nadal(he'll just hit a FH winner off it), obviously needs to serve great and try to get the ball as much as possible to Nadal's BH( the only thing he can take from their WTF match IMO) which is not as good as it was back in 2009 AO.

Basically, a lot of things will have to come together for Fed to win this one but it's still possible.

 

[veritech]

I don't think he should be ultra agressive against Nadal, he won't be able to hit winners as easily as he did at WTF with its predictable bounce. I also don't think he and Annacone will study 2009 AO final, that was 3 years ago, for better or worse both Fed and Nadal are somewhat different players compared to then.

He'll need to be patient in a rally but as soon as he gets an attackable ball pull the trigger, he has to find the right balance as going for low % shots too early in the rally too often is not gonna work over a BO5 match but then again he also can't get too passive or Nadal will move him side to side like a ragdoll as soon as Fed coughs up a short ball.

He'll also need to come over his BH on the ROS, no point chipping the ball back to Nadal(he'll just hit a FH winner off it), obviously needs to serve great and try to get the ball as much as possible to Nadal's BH( the only thing he can take from their WTF match IMO) which is not as good as it was back in 2009 AO.

Basically, a lot of things will have to come together for Fed to win this one but it's still possible.

he'll need to return like he did at the FO final last year, where he stepped in and took the serve on the rise. consistently taking the serve 5-10 meters behind the baseline can only lead to trouble for fed.

 

[nadalwon2012]

The thing I like most about this match-up is that there are no secrets. One guy has to execute his strengths better than the other guy. It's all about execution, rather than tactics.

 

[coloskier]

If Fed hits his DTL BH like he did last night Nadal will be in serious trouble, especially if the ball is not bouncing high due to cooler weather. The DTL BH is what Djoker uses to destroy Nadal, and it is obvious that Fed has picked up on that and has been practicing. He must have had double digit winners last night with the DTL BH alone. Nadal can no longer depend on the tired old FH to Fed BH crosscourt rallies anymore. Plus, now that Fed is FINALLY stepping in on 2nd serve returns he will hurt Nadal even more than Berdych did last night. If Nadal continues to hit 75 mph 2nd serves he will be toast.

 

[Warmaster]

As much as I'd like to see a Fed masterclass; i'm expecting Nadal to win this in 5, maybe 4.


As always, i'll be rooting for the maestro though, who knows, his return has been a bit more agressive as of late, can Rogi pull of the upset?

 

[FlashFlare11]

I don't think he should be ultra agressive against Nadal, he won't be able to hit winners as easily as he did at WTF with its predictable bounce. I also don't think he and Annacone will study 2009 AO final, that was 3 years ago, for better or worse both Fed and Nadal are somewhat different players compared to then.

He'll need to be patient in a rally but as soon as he gets an attackable ball pull the trigger, he has to find the right balance as going for low % shots too early in the rally too often is not gonna work over a BO5 match but then again he also can't get too passive or Nadal will move him side to side like a ragdoll as soon as Fed coughs up a short ball.

He'll also need to come over his BH on the ROS, no point chipping the ball back to Nadal(he'll just hit a FH winner off it), obviously needs to serve great and try to get the ball as much as possible to Nadal's BH( the only thing he can take from their WTF match IMO) which is not as good as it was back in 2009 AO.

Basically, a lot of things will have to come together for Fed to win this one but it's still possible.

Yeah, you're right, patience is the key. He can't go for low percentage shots 99% of the time. He needs to pepper Nadal's backhand, though. This is the one key point I noticed in the WTF RR match. He hit high, solid forehands to Nadal's backhand and eventually drew the short ball. I don't know how effective that will be at the AO, but it worked well indoors. Lopez did the same thing, though he wasn't as consistent, but got the same results

Roger is serving well. That's what was missing in their previous match at the AO. He has a much better slice serve than Berdych, keeping it shorter and more angled, drawing Nadal off the court. I do expect Roger to get broken first, however. His ROS needs to be aggressive and on the baseline. Basically, he needs to realize that he can't end the point outright unless he sets up well. The backhand down-the-line has been working extremely well for him this tournament, so I hope he uses it when he has to in order to open the court.

All-in-all, it should be an exciting match! I highly doubt it's going to be a blowout and whoever wins is going to have to work for it. For some reason or another, I'm not as worried for this match because I feel Roger's playing very well. He'll give himself the chances, it's simply up to him to take them.

 

[Sentinel]

Fred basically needs to win the first 3 sets. Otherwise, Nadal will toss him around like a cold salad.

 

[Rock Strongo]

That's just awesome!

 

[Magnus]

I'm not trying to rile you batz, but -


Of those 4 wins, 2 are in Miami - Slow high bouncing HC..Easily the slowest HC on the tour.

1 in Dubai - This is about as quick as Indian wells,faster than Miami. But let's take this one instance as an exception.

1 in AO (Plexicushion Prestige) - Slow, high bouncing HC.

Not to take anything away from great Nadal, but the guy has won when the conditions suited him instead of Federer.

Do let me know when Nadal beats Federer on a fast HC or if the conditions suited Federer for ONCE instead of Nadal on an "outdoor" HC.

Btw Federer leads indoors where conditions suit Federer more than Nadal(thanks to the low bounce) 4-0. Nadal has only won one set.

Federer has ATLEAST beaten Nadal twice on clay(conditions loaded HEAVILY in favour of Nadal).


That H2H is used wayyy too loosely to bring down Federer. I'm quite frankly sick of it(nothing against you batz, but generally).

PS - I didn't mean to derail this thread but I just wish people kept things in perspective(not you specifically batz.) about that incredibly misleading H2H.

I'm sick of it too, but what other cards *******s will have to play? MS titles won? LOL. Federer has better H2Hs against the tour overall than Nadal, he set more records, survived longer as #1, won 6 YEC titles which according to *******s are meaningless (well, at least until Nadal wins the YEC). Federer can still win a slam I think, but I'm not sure mentally he can beat Nadal (almost nobody can beat Nadal mentally, aside of maybe current Djokovic). Tennis-wise, I have no doubt in my mind that Federer can beat Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, or anyone else, but mentally I think Fed has lost it since 2008.

 

[Magnus]

Really? Nadal has won every slam encounter post W 07, on every surface. He is the heavy favorite, and should reach his fourth straight slam final. Federer was expected to get to the semi-final to meet Nadal and he has done that.

Correct, Federer basically accomplished what was expected of him according to ranking.

 

[FlashFlare11]

I'm sick of it too, but what other cards *******s will have to play? MS titles won? LOL. Federer has better H2Hs against the tour overall than Nadal, he set more records, survived longer as #1, won 6 YEC titles which according to *******s are meaningless (well, at least until Nadal wins the YEC). Federer can still win a slam I think, but I'm not sure mentally he can beat Nadal (almost nobody can beat Nadal mentally, aside of maybe current Djokovic). Tennis-wise, I have no doubt in my mind that Federer can beat Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, or anyone else, but mentally I think Fed has lost it since 2008.

Sorry, not trying to get off topic because this discussion should be about predictions and tactics, but there are people on here who call Nadal the GOAT because of things he may or may not achieve in the future. And we're supposed to believe that a Singles Gold Medal means more than 6 YECs?

 

[Seany]

I love how nadal fans are living in the past.

He was great in 2009, but now he is a shadow of his former self, Fed on the other hand is just as good if not better than he was.

Also the mental block on fed's side has completely disappeared, he no longer has to worry about passing pete's 15 slams, he no longer has to worry about winning RG, and he no longer has to worry about Rafa ever getting more slams than him, plus he has had some great victories over Rafa, albeit indoors.

Fed will win.

 

[TMF]

I can't believe Roger has more votes than Nadal. Because of their pessimistic, Nadal fans vote for Roger.

Uncle Toni and Nadal have figured it out....."hit 99.999% to Roger's back hand".

 

[rafan]

Sorry, not trying to get off topic because this discussion should be about predictions and tactics, but there are people on here who call Nadal the GOAT because of things he may or may not achieve in the future. And we're supposed to believe that a Singles Gold Medal means more than 6 YECs?

Oh for heaven sake fans do not think this way. He had an astonishing olympic year and was on a roll. Nadal has a totally different philosophy about life to Federer who until he had children had little else to think about. Nadal has another life outside tennis in Majorca and if he loses it doesn't affect his ego nearly as much.

 

[rafan]

I love how nadal fans are living in the past.

He was great in 2009, but now he is a shadow of his former self, Fed on the other hand is just as good if not better than he was.

Also the mental block on fed's side has completely disappeared, he no longer has to worry about passing pete's 15 slams, he no longer has to worry about winning RG, and he no longer has to worry about Rafa ever getting more slams than him, plus he has had some great victories over Rafa, albeit indoors.

Fed will win.

Yes but what puts Nadal head and shoulders above him is the fact that these worries do not affect him nearly as much. Life is for living as well as playing tennis