20 years on - Has Tennis really evolved?

[aman92]

Considering we are now 20 years from 2005 - the year when essentially the Big 3 era started, I thought it would be a good exercise to compare the level of winners of the first 3 slams of 2025 with 2005.

1. AO ( Safin 2005 vs Sinner 2025) - Very close level of the overall winner. Obviously Sinner will go down as the better player in their careers, but peak Safin when he bought his A game was something else. He beat peakerer in the semi final and comfortably won against a very good Hewitt in the final. Sinner's level of competition was far lower. I'll give the slight edge to Safin here.

2. RG ( Nadal 2005 vs Alcaraz 2005) - close call but even though this was teenage Nadal, he had already won Monte Carlo and Rome, and was at the beginning of his 81 match winning streak on clay. Carlos only played well once going down 2 sets in the final, he won't be able to outrun, and outbox baby Nadal on clay. Nadal 2005 wins here.

3. Wimbledon ( Federer 2005 vs Sinner 2005) - Easiest one to pick. SIinner struggled against Dimitrov of 2005 - This was peak Federer on his favorite surface. He beats any version of Sinner on grass very comfortably.


So 20 years on, the level displayed by 2005 winners is still superior to 2025 winners. THE sport may have more power now but the level of tennis certainly isn't anything superior.

 

[DSH]

Considering we are now 20 years from 2005 - the year when essentially the Big 3 era started, I thought it would be a good exercise to compare the level of winners of the first 3 slams of 2025 with 2005.

1. AO ( Safin 2005 vs Sinner 2025) - Very close level of the overall winner. Obviously Sinner will go down as the better player in their careers, but peak Safin when he bought his A game was something else. He beat peakerer in the semi final and comfortably won against a very good Hewitt in the final. Sinner's level of competition was far lower. I'll give the slight edge to Safin here.

2. RG ( Nadal 2005 vs Alcaraz 2005) - close call but even though this was teenage Nadal, he had already won Monte Carlo and Rome, and was at the beginning of his 81 match winning streak on clay. Carlos only played well once going down 2 sets in the final, he won't be able to outrun, and outbox baby Nadal on clay. Nadal 2005 wins here.

3. Wimbledon ( Federer 2005 vs Sinner 2005) - Easiest one to pick. SIinner struggled against Dimitrov of 2005 - This was peak Federer on his favorite surface. He beats any version of Sinner on grass very comfortably.


So 20 years on, the level displayed by 2005 winners is still superior to 2025 winners. THE sport may have more power now but the level of tennis certainly isn't anything superior.

It has evolved...backwards.

 

[Clay lover]

1. Sinner wins
2. Nadal wins
3. Federer wins

But honestly so what - even if oldies win it doesn't mean the game is in a terrible state. The overall pool might be affected by tech changes and conditions and training or whatever and evolve and devolve - but as for the absolute cream of the crop, I still believe we obtain them by luck.

The B3 being better than any subsequent generation is simply a product of them being too good rather than everyone after them being terrible because of some terrible conditions that have plagued the scene.

 

[GabeT]

TTW is like the same thread over and over and over

Thread '2005 a considerably better year than 2015 in men's tennis'

Feb 25, 2021

2005 vs 2015

2005 AO vs 2015 AO : Safin, Federer, Agassi,Hewitt, Nalbandian, Roddick>> Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka, Berdych
2005 FO vs 2015 FO : Nadal, Federer, Puerta, Davydenko, Coria ,Canas, Robredo, Ferrer, Gaudio > Wawrinka, Djokovic, Murray, Tsonga, Federer,Nadal, Nishi

2005 Wim vs 2015 Wim : about the same (let me go a bit in detail for this)

Federer 2005 Wim > Djokovic 2015 Wim
Hewitt 2005 Wim ~ Federer 2015 Wim (including the final, maybe a slight edge to 15 Wim fed, but its debatable, longer it goes, more in favour of hewitt)
Roddick 2005 Wim < Murray 2015 Wim
Johansson 2005...

• abmk
• Replies: 146
• Forum: General Pro Player Discussion

• 

 

[Third Serve]

Safin gets a lot of well-deserved credit for the AO 2005 SF but the final of that tournament was an incredible performance from him. After the first set (which was one of the best sets Hewitt’s ever played imo—0 UFEs and he was hitting hard) he was pretty much a wrecking ball.

 

[ForehandCross]

There are a lot of nuances at work here.

I was actually about to make a post about the whole perception of Alcaraz and Sinner playing the game at a higher speed than ever.

Data is scarce. However, it seems that's just not true. For example even 2016 Federer FH was 76 MPH(overall including slices and droppers , no topspin specific calculation) , Alcaraz FH is 76MPH(2023) - 78 MPH (2024) , this is only topspin. In some important matches Alcaraz has gone as low as mid 60s (Cincy 2023) .

For reference one source puts Novak at 77 MPH more than a decade ago.

If the argument is he hits heavier, Nadal had 3200 rpms(Alcaraz averages around 3200 as well) as average and hit at 75-76 MPH.

And the actual crazy speed spin combo already came to the tour 8-9 years ago : Dominic Thiem was averaging 81 MPH on the FH and 77 MPH on the BH ( Alcaraz is mid 60s) with 3000+ RPMs.

And this is not going into the actual tour which is filled with players with outlier strokes. Ex : 2023 Dimitrov had higher speed than both Alcaraz and Sinner.

Sinner and Alcaraz are not exactly revolutionary in this regard.

BUT , they are revolutionary in athleticism and combining athleticism to a very good serve and incredible defense and incredible shot tolerance.

 

[Mustard]

I don't think it has changed much in the last 20 years. What a contrast to the 23 years before 2005, where tennis players had to focus on changing technologies like Formula 1 drivers.

 

[aman92]

I don't think it has changed much in the last 20 years. What a contrast to the 23 years before 2005, where tennis players had to focus on changing technologies like Formula 1 drivers.

Yeah that's true...1985 compared to 2005 seemed ages ago. 2005 compares to 2025 doesn't nearly feel as ancient.

 

[darthrafa]

if tennis has evolved, why no other players can match sinraz while djoker at 38 can still easily make QFs at slams (let alone semi)

 

[travlerajm]

The big difference between now and 20 years ago is swingweight.

The top guys were using high effective swingweight with more lead tape added to the hoop back in 2005.

Today the top guys have less mass in the hoop.

The end result is that the level of the top guys today isn’t as high as the level of the top guys from 2005. The launch angle of modern players’ shots is inherently more sensitive to the spin and power level of the incoming ball delivered by the opponent. It’s simple physics.

How did the level of pro tennis evolve backwards?

The Djokodal gen was the last generation of players who learned their strokes at a young age before the advent of the poly era. Hence, their techniques were more scalable to higher swingweights when they got stronger and matured.

Today’s top players have wristier techniques developed from a young age with poly in mind. Once mature, trying to add mass to the hoop while avoiding injury is extremely challenging. The explosiveness of the prevailing techniques — developed around the need to swing harder with light racquets — exacerbated the issue. They are stuck with light racquets that are inherently more prone to streaky play and higher unforced error rate.

 

[abmk]

Safin of AO 05 well above Sinner of AO 25

Nadal of RG 05 well above Alcaraz/Sinner of RG 25

Federer of Wim 25 well well well above Sinner of Wim 25

 

[abmk]

1. Sinner wins
2. Nadal wins
3. Federer wins

But honestly so what - even if oldies win it doesn't mean the game is in a terrible state. The overall pool might be affected by tech changes and conditions and training or whatever and evolve and devolve - but as for the absolute cream of the crop, I still believe we obtain them by luck.

The B3 being better than any subsequent generation is simply a product of them being too good rather than everyone after them being terrible because of some terrible conditions that have plagued the scene.

LOL.
Safin would beat Sinner in 4 sets.

 

[BGod]

Safin, Nalbandian, hell old Agassi would decimate Top 10 today.

 

[Razer]

Safin, Nalbandian, hell old Agassi would decimate Top 10 today.

That's a stretch

Old Agassi won't decimate Sinner/Alcaraz

Agassi was weak in 2005, he loses just like he lost to Nadal.

 

[weakera]

Forget the quality of the tennis for a second.

The spectacle, the theater, is WAY worse.

This is part of why Tennis doesn't create the same mainstream ripple of interest that it used to.

There's no comparison,

 

[Razer]

Tennis has not evolved a lot

Nobody today moves better than Federer/Nadal did at their best
Nobody hits harder today than JMDP/Gonzales did
Nobody slides better than Djokovic did at his best
Nobody (under 6'5) serves as hard as Roddick did.
Nobody tall (6'5 and above) plays better than Safin

So the game has not evolved at the top level...

 

[travlerajm]

Tennis has not evolved a lot

Nobody today moves better than Federer/Nadal did at their best
Nobody hits harder today than JMDP/Gonzales did
Nobody slides better than Djokovic did at his best
Nobody (under 6'5) serves as hard as Roddick did.
Nobody tall (6'5 and above) plays better than Safin

So the game has not evolved at the top level...

well-summarized truth bomb.

 

[RS]

Only 2007-2009 can pass 2005.

 

[Frenchy-Player]

Forget the quality of the tennis for a second.

The spectacle, the theater, is WAY worse.

This is part of why Tennis doesn't create the same mainstream ripple of interest that it used to.

There's no comparison,

Even the quality was better with Fed Nadal...

 

[TheGoldenEra1990’s]

Washed up, needing a bar stool to walk Geratricererer being 3rd best player in the world at 38 with 2 recent wins over Alcaraz on clay and hards , Dimitrov/Sinner's match at Wimbledon, 40 year old Fognini giving Alcaraz a first round embarrassment at wimbledon, Washed up Cilic embarrassing Draper at Wimbledon (And Alcaraz at Flushing at few years ago), says... No absolutely not LOL. The proof is in the pudding

If anything the sport has regressed. The top guys of 20 years ago would absolutely embarrass the top guys now. And obviously the Big 3 would grind both Sinner/Alcaraz into dust with extreme ease