2000 wimbledon SF Pat Rafter vs 2011 Wimbledon Final Djokovic at wimbledon (fast grass)
- Thread starter arvind13
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How is that crazy? ******** is completely unproven on fast grass.
Kemitak
Professional
That semi-final in 2000 against Agassi should be some indication. Agassi is a better, more agressive returner on fast courts than Djokovic, which causes big problems for serve & volleyers. Sure, Djokovic moves better than Agassi, but that means much less on fast grass. (Spoiler Alert: Rafter won that semi-final.)
d-quik
Legend
Spoiler alert for something from two decades ago? Damn yo
NonP
Legend
Hardly crazy. That SF was probably the best old-school GC tennis anyone has played in the last 25-ish years (emphasis on "old-school"), and Rafter was one of the few S&Vers who had the skills and athleticism to still make it work today.
Let's get one thing out of the way first: Pat would at least be able to hold his own on serve. Of course the received wisdom says that Novak with the power of his current racquet would be passing him left and right, but if you pay half as much attention as I do to net stats you already know that net rushing is still not only doable but preferable even against the best returners/passers, and while Djoko might be able to reproduce Agassi's proven kryptonite vs. S&Vers on return Dre had clearly superior passing shots and Nole would be hard-pressed to pass Pat better than Dre did in that cracking 5-setter in '01.
Plus Pat's mastery of the underutilized body serve would be unlike anything Novak has been exposed to in his career and that variety would give the five-time Wimbledon champ plenty of headaches even on today's grass. There's a reason why Rafter despite not being an ace dispenser made the top 10 in % of service games won every year from '94-'01 except '95 (yes, even before he won his 1st major), ranking 2nd on all surfaces in '00 with 87.8%, or why none other than Sampras admitted in his book that he preferred to play Stefan to Pat due to the Aussie daredevil's said ability to constantly keep him guessing.
The real Q, then, is how Pat would handle Novak's own underappreciated serve. Now I should point out that whatever improvement we tend to attribute to Novak's serve is less reality than perception as his # of aces per service game has held fairly steady between his best years unlike Fed's which saw a noticeable uptick from '06 to '08 ('07 stands somewhere in the middle at 0.62), but as expected the #s do show that Novak had fixed his Martinified serve by '11 (0.30). So what was his hold % that year? 90.6% (Wimby was the only GC event he played in '11), which actually is somewhat underwhelming compared to Pat's 91.6% in '00 which itself would likely be at least a point higher today, but considering that Novak had to go through Anderson, Tsonga and Rafa we can safely assume Pat would be dealing with a top-notch service game nonetheless.
So what was his RGW% on grass in '00? 23.2% overall or 23.1% at SW19, which is more than decent on the unpredictable grass of yore (its last edition in fact!) but nothing compared to Novak's predictably dominant 31.3% in '11 which also dwarfs Agassi's subpar (for him) 25.4% in '00. (FYI Pat won 57.7% of his overall games at '00 Wimby and Novak 61.7% at the '11 edition, TBs included.) That said prime Sampras was well-nigh unbreakable in Wimby finals, holding serve a stunning 127 times out of a total 131 (Pat as expected failed to break him once), and while Pete was playing with tendinitis and a back injury in '00 it's still hard to see him getting broken nearly 5 out of 16 times (or even losing in 16 service games) like Rafa in the '11 final. Not to mention that this isn't a fair comparison to begin with as even the very best passers struggle to pass his opponents more than half the time and Pete wasn't the only opponent Pat faced who attacked the net more often the average player of today. This isn't to say Djoko still wouldn't be ahead of Rafter on return. He would, just not quite by the level of margin suggested by the 31.3%-23.1% difference.
Having said all that, I almost always give actual champs the benefit of the doubt and I do think Novak takes this in a hard-fought 5-setter. Thanks to that RoS advantage of his, yes, but also because the justly lauded Rafter kicker wouldn't have as much bite on grass as on the high(er)-bouncing HCs. I still think Pat would have a slight edge on serve and have his way at the net, but not enough to override those two major factors as his dinks and slices which worked so well against Agassi wouldn't be as effective vs. Novak's superior mobility.
Speaking of which you know where I think Pat would have a better chance? At the USO of course, where his kicker would likely earn him more free/easy points to put him over the hump. And in '98 he was having the run of his life, completing the Canada-Cincy-USO triple and knocking out a feisty Sampras (albeit slightly injured, yes) in the SF and dispatching Flipper in the final while committing only 5 UFEs in 4 sets. That Rafter may well be the fave over '11 Novak, who despite his sterling HC credentials has been underwhelming in Flushing Meadows by his standards. At the very least it should be a competitive matchup.
Let's get one thing out of the way first: Pat would at least be able to hold his own on serve. Of course the received wisdom says that Novak with the power of his current racquet would be passing him left and right, but if you pay half as much attention as I do to net stats you already know that net rushing is still not only doable but preferable even against the best returners/passers, and while Djoko might be able to reproduce Agassi's proven kryptonite vs. S&Vers on return Dre had clearly superior passing shots and Nole would be hard-pressed to pass Pat better than Dre did in that cracking 5-setter in '01.
Plus Pat's mastery of the underutilized body serve would be unlike anything Novak has been exposed to in his career and that variety would give the five-time Wimbledon champ plenty of headaches even on today's grass. There's a reason why Rafter despite not being an ace dispenser made the top 10 in % of service games won every year from '94-'01 except '95 (yes, even before he won his 1st major), ranking 2nd on all surfaces in '00 with 87.8%, or why none other than Sampras admitted in his book that he preferred to play Stefan to Pat due to the Aussie daredevil's said ability to constantly keep him guessing.
The real Q, then, is how Pat would handle Novak's own underappreciated serve. Now I should point out that whatever improvement we tend to attribute to Novak's serve is less reality than perception as his # of aces per service game has held fairly steady between his best years unlike Fed's which saw a noticeable uptick from '06 to '08 ('07 stands somewhere in the middle at 0.62), but as expected the #s do show that Novak had fixed his Martinified serve by '11 (0.30). So what was his hold % that year? 90.6% (Wimby was the only GC event he played in '11), which actually is somewhat underwhelming compared to Pat's 91.6% in '00 which itself would likely be at least a point higher today, but considering that Novak had to go through Anderson, Tsonga and Rafa we can safely assume Pat would be dealing with a top-notch service game nonetheless.
So what was his RGW% on grass in '00? 23.2% overall or 23.1% at SW19, which is more than decent on the unpredictable grass of yore (its last edition in fact!) but nothing compared to Novak's predictably dominant 31.3% in '11 which also dwarfs Agassi's subpar (for him) 25.4% in '00. (FYI Pat won 57.7% of his overall games at '00 Wimby and Novak 61.7% at the '11 edition, TBs included.) That said prime Sampras was well-nigh unbreakable in Wimby finals, holding serve a stunning 127 times out of a total 131 (Pat as expected failed to break him once), and while Pete was playing with tendinitis and a back injury in '00 it's still hard to see him getting broken nearly 5 out of 16 times (or even losing in 16 service games) like Rafa in the '11 final. Not to mention that this isn't a fair comparison to begin with as even the very best passers struggle to pass his opponents more than half the time and Pete wasn't the only opponent Pat faced who attacked the net more often the average player of today. This isn't to say Djoko still wouldn't be ahead of Rafter on return. He would, just not quite by the level of margin suggested by the 31.3%-23.1% difference.
Having said all that, I almost always give actual champs the benefit of the doubt and I do think Novak takes this in a hard-fought 5-setter. Thanks to that RoS advantage of his, yes, but also because the justly lauded Rafter kicker wouldn't have as much bite on grass as on the high(er)-bouncing HCs. I still think Pat would have a slight edge on serve and have his way at the net, but not enough to override those two major factors as his dinks and slices which worked so well against Agassi wouldn't be as effective vs. Novak's superior mobility.
Speaking of which you know where I think Pat would have a better chance? At the USO of course, where his kicker would likely earn him more free/easy points to put him over the hump. And in '98 he was having the run of his life, completing the Canada-Cincy-USO triple and knocking out a feisty Sampras (albeit slightly injured, yes) in the SF and dispatching Flipper in the final while committing only 5 UFEs in 4 sets. That Rafter may well be the fave over '11 Novak, who despite his sterling HC credentials has been underwhelming in Flushing Meadows by his standards. At the very least it should be a competitive matchup.
With poli strings?
arvind13
Professional
yes the poly strings get overrated on this forum imo. rafter with federer's pre 2014 racquet head size and a polygut string combination should still be able to serve and volley as well if not better than with his old racquet. modern racquet and strings should actually make his kick serve even more lethal
abmk
Bionic Poster
dunno what Sampras is on about here. He was only 8-6 vs Edberg (lost both GS matches) and had a much better win-loss vs Rafter.
I don't think so. Rafter would have a clearly better chance on the older grass than on Deco II
older grass > deco II > current grass
NonP
Legend
Except that Edberg had a big RoS advantage. As you might have noticed he's the only one since '91, one-handed or not, who ranks among the top 10 in 1st-serve return points won on every surface*. And that's despite the double counting of aces! Suffice it to say Rafter falls way short, ranking 92nd on grass, 107th on hard and 210th on clay.
Plus almost half of Pete's 6 losses to Stefan came before '93, while Pat was a late bloomer/early retiree and had only 3-4 years to try to even his lopsided H2H vs. prime Pistol. Of course you could say this works the other way around, but given that Rafter is one of the few players whose game Pete analyzed in detail in his book - even Krajicek doesn't get the same treatment, unless you count the match summary of the '96 upset in one of the chapters proper - it's clear he held his briefly estranged rival in high esteem.
*Kucera barely misses out, coming 11th on clay and 12th on card. Shoulda included him in my list.
As you know I reject the "slow grass" premise to begin with, so let me just add I don't think it's a coincidence that Pat's 2 Slams came on Deco. That kicker of his was just about perfect for HCs, which also helped mitigate the weaknesses of his relatively mediocre return game. And he'd probably tell you himself that he preferred to face Pistol and his ilk on hard than on grass.
P.S. Haven't forgot about your reply in the other thread. Been on something of a spreadsheet-updating binge lately, will get to unfinished business after I'm done.
abmk
Bionic Poster
Yes, Edberg is a highly underrated returner. Even then, counting just from 97 onwards, Pete was 9-3 vs Rafter.
I should've added - I've seen Pete struggle with Edberg's kicker. don't really recall him struggling more vs Rafter's serve.
slow grass is a shorthand for slower, consistent bouncing grass.
Yes, Pat's better on deco II than on the older grass, but not by as much as the 2 titles to 0 indicate. Its a noticeable difference, but not big.
Rafter made the same # of finals at both. Faced tougher finalists in both Wim finals obviously compared to USO finals - after having beaten Agassi playing well in both the semis at Wimbledon.
Djoko OTOH would be worse on the older grass than on Deco II IMO.
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