2008-2016: the drought is over (?)

stringertom

Bionic Poster
There's definitely a trend of young players faring better now than they have for several years. Four teenagers in the top 100 when often there have been none is a pretty good indicator. Perhaps the body of the field has just got so old that young players have to rise as a reality of nature.
I think it's more the post-'96ers are light years better talent than the '89-'95 batch. I hope to be proved wrong in '16-'17 with some slam titles from ThiNishRaoDimKyr but if they don't produce soon the CorChuZveKokkFritRubTsiAli's will pass them in the fast lane to the victory line.
 

reaper

Legend
I think you've got the years just slightly wrong. I'd go with the post '95ers being more talented than the '89-94 group. Kyrgios might actually win something if he drops the ego trip.
 
J

JRAJ1988

Guest
Guys/Gals can someone give me some background on Fritz? Was he a good Junior? Was he hyped to be the next ...so and so?

Win or Lose he's on the up and up, new blood is good for tennis.
 

Sysyphus

Talk Tennis Guru
Guys/Gals can someone give me some background on Fritz? Was he a good Junior? Was he hyped to be the next ...so and so?

Win or Lose he's on the up and up.
TFH is an explosive bloomer. He started pursuing tennis seriously relatively late compared to most (played a lot of other sports along with tennis at first), and when he started training with the USTA he was lagging behind, but he has rapidly left his peers behind. His mother was a pro, so probably some talent in the blood. He won the boys USO in '15, and made the boys RG final as well. Played his first pro tourney in Nottingham last summer, crushed Busta in the first round, played Lopez respectably the same day. Went on an absolute tear in the NA challengers during the fall and has quickly climbed the ranks, and seems to be climbing still. Pushed Sock to five at AO. Beat top thirty player Johnson here this week.
His greatest asset may be that he's so mentally cool and focused, and his clutch serving and demeanor has begotten some baby Sampras comparisons.
 

gogo

Hall of Fame
you may not remember it (as it happened during particularly dark times) but the last teenager to reach a final on the tour was... cilic in 2008 ! :confused:
(whereas there had always been at least one each year since 1970 !)



coric just reached the final in chennai at 19.
is it just a spark in the cosmic darkness or a sign of a new trend ?...

Sure....feed right into my inner stats geek! Love the graph!

I definitely think (and hope) that the nextgen will deliver. (Yes, it might be because the current stars will fall off the charts due to old age, but who cares??)

Go nextgen!!
 

stringertom

Bionic Poster
Would be amazing if THF titles tomorrow after just 8 months from his first tour match while all the other prodigies have played for two and three years without "breaking their cherries".
 
Kyrgios turned 20 during the week of his final run in Estoril in 2015. Talk about unlucky. :p

Born 27th April 1995
Tournament was 26th April - 3rd May
Yeah. Nadal was the same way at the Slam level. He's the only teenage Slam champion since Sampras won the US Open in 1990. Nadal was 19 years and a few days when he won Roland Garros in 2005. He was 20 years and a few days when he won Roland Garros in 2006. So, if he'd been a week younger, he'd have done twice what nobody else has done at all in the last 25 years. Incidentally, no teenager has lost a Slam final in that span, either. So, just the one teenage Slam finalist in the last 101 Slams.
 
Yeah. Nadal was the same way at the Slam level. He's the only teenage Slam champion since Sampras won the US Open in 1990. Nadal was 19 years and a few days when he won Roland Garros in 2005. He was 20 years and a few days when he won Roland Garros in 2006. So, if he'd been a week younger, he'd have done twice what nobody else has done at all in the last 25 years. Incidentally, no teenager has lost a Slam final in that span, either. So, just the one teenage Slam finalist in the last 101 Slams.
but right before those "last 25 years", it was not uncommon to see teenagers do well at slams :)
multiple slam QF before turning 20 (AO,RG,W,USO)

6 becker (1,2,2,1)
5 borg (0,2,2,1), wilander (1,3,0,1)
4 cash (2,0,1,1)
3 ivanisevic (1,1,1,0), edberg (2,1,0,0), agassi (0,1,0,2), chang (0,3,0,0), medvedev (0,2,0,1)
2 mcenroe (0,0,1,1), federer (0,1,1,0), kyrgios (1,0,1,0), amritraj (0,0,1,1)

multiple slam SF before turning 20 (AO,RG,W,USO)

4 becker (0,1,2,1), wilander (1,3,0,0)
3 borg (0,2,0,1), agassi (0,1,0,2)
2 mcenroe (0,0,1,1), cash (0,0,1,1)

multiple slam F before turning 20 (AO,RG,W,USO)

3 wilander (1,2,0,0)
2 borg (0,2,0,0), becker (0,0,2,0)

multiple slam W before turning 20 (AO,RG,W,USO)

2 wilander (1,1,0,0), borg (0,2,0,0), becker (0,0,2,0)

(feel free to correct !)
 
but right before those "last 25 years", it was not uncommon to see teenagers do well at slams :)
True. Teenagers did very well in the late 1970s and through the 1980s. 30-somethings did very well until about 1975 and again around the turn of the millennium and again in recent years. It's a mistake to write either off, even though 20-somethings are always likely to be the dominant demographic in tennis.
 
the "void streak" is broken for finals (thx to coric and fritz) but we're still waiting for a teenage tournament winner !
(fritz ? zverev ?...)

here is the youngest "winning meat" we had since nishi/delpo/cilic, according to the ATP website:


as regards slams, kyrgios already did something relatively rare by reaching multiple slam QFs as a teenager.
(since djokovic at RG 2006, the only other teen-QFs were gulbis at RG 2008 and tomic at W 2011)
 
as regards slams, kyrgios already did something relatively rare by reaching multiple slam QFs as a teenager.
(since djokovic at RG 2006, the only other teen-QFs were gulbis at RG 2008 and tomic at W 2011)
Interesting. So unless there's a teenager quarter-finalist at RG 2016, that will mean just four teenage Slam quarter-finalists in the 40 most recent Slams (so 4/160 quarter-finalists teenagers). And only one of them 18 or younger. (Kyrgios and Gulbis were 19 when they made their QFs, Tomic was 18).

Tomic has really stalled since his breakout GS QF and tour title. Perhaps he's starting to move forward again recently, but he's 23 and a third now.
 
Still looks like Nishikori is the only man standing in the way of a 29+ top five by the start of Roland Garros - as Djokovic and Murray both turn 29 in mid-May. Nishikori is #6 and with Nadal struggling, he could well overtake Nadal by then and so stop this happening. But it could easily be 9 of the top 10 aged 29+. Cilic, aged 27, is #12 and so could stop that. As could Thiem, more dramatically.
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
you may not remember it (as it happened during particularly dark times) but the last teenager to reach a final on the tour was... cilic in 2008 ! :confused:
(whereas there had always been at least one each year since 1970 !)



coric just reached the final in chennai at 19.
is it just a spark in the cosmic darkness or a sign of a new trend ?...
Insane stat Vive!
 

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
you may not remember it (as it happened during particularly dark times) but the last teenager to reach a final on the tour was... cilic in 2008 ! :confused:
(whereas there had always been at least one each year since 1970 !)



coric just reached the final in chennai at 19.
is it just a spark in the cosmic darkness or a sign of a new trend ?...
/QUOTE]
That's a great graph because it shows how much older players dominated at the beginning of the Open era. It was much like now. It is the period from around 85 to 2000 that was so different.
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
Not sure. At least so far as Slams are concerned, the only period that was really the teenager's period was from 1974 to 1990, inclusive. From 1991 onwards, teenage success at Slams was already much more sporadic.
Well @Gary specifically spoke of older players dominating. They did in the beginning and again from 2011 - not most years aside from 1985-2000 as he would have it.
Teenagers had their peak from 1983-1990, but were a relevant force in terms of title count most years from 1972 to 2008. Since 2008....... nada. That's a massive outlier.
 
Well @Gary specifically spoke of older players dominating. They did in the beginning and again from 2011 - not most years aside from 1985-2000 as he would have it.
Teenagers had their peak from 1983-1990, but were a relevant force in terms of title count most years from 1972 to 2008. Since 2008....... nada. That's a massive outlier.
I didn't realize the topic was older players. If so, then I would agree that for the most part older players didn't do very well from about 1975 until the last few years, although depending on what you take to be "old," you might argue that there was a brief period between 1999 and 2003 when they did.

As far as teenagers go, yes, I think a lot of it depends on whether you consider just Slams or all tournaments. Teenagers have done well in minor events, where they didn't have to beat the top players over best-of-five sets. But in Slams, there have been something like four teenage semi-finalists since the start of 1991, one finalist, and one winner. I looked it up recently and posted it somewhere. I'll search again and try to find the post in question.

That means that over the last 25 years, 30-somethings have done better than teenagers in major events, by quite a distance. But it would be fair to say that 20-somethings have been the dominant force in majors for the last 25 years with pretty little competition from either older or younger players.
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
I didn't realize the topic was older players. If so, then I would agree that for the most part older players didn't do very well from about 1975 until the last few years, although depending on what you take to be "old," you might argue that there was a brief period between 1999 and 2003 when they did.

As far as teenagers go, yes, I think a lot of it depends on whether you consider just Slams or all tournaments. Teenagers have done well in minor events, where they didn't have to beat the top players over best-of-five sets. But in Slams, there have been something like four teenage semi-finalists since the start of 1991, one finalist, and one winner. I looked it up recently and posted it somewhere. I'll search again and try to find the post in question.

That means that over the last 25 years, 30-somethings have done better than teenagers in major events, by quite a distance. But it would be fair to say that 20-somethings have been the dominant force in majors for the last 25 years with pretty little competition from either older or younger players.
have you seen the graph in the OP? That's the discussion topic :)
would be interesting on data on the majors alone, the graph is all titles on the tour.
Sampras and Nadal are the two last teenage slam champions? :eek:
Who's the runner up?
 
have you seen the graph in the OP? That's the discussion topic :)
would be interesting on data on the majors alone, the graph is all titles on the tour.
Sampras and Nadal are the two last teenage slam champions? :eek:
Who's the runner up?
No runners-up. Nadal was the winner and the finalist. I should have said "no other finalists."

Yes, Nadal is the only teen Slam champion since Sampras. Plenty of 20-year-old champs, though.

I found the other post I wrote. There have been three Slam semi-finalists since the start of 1991: Medvedev (RG 1993), Hewitt (US Open 2000), Nadal (RG 2005).

Honorable mentions:
Nadal (RG 2006: turned 20 on the day of his 3rd round match, which was incidentally an epic 5-hour match against Paul-Henri Mathieu, to which the score - 5/7 6/4 6/4 6/4 - does not do justice).
Djokovic (RG 2007: turned 20 six days before the tournament began).
 
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@Chanwan

Here's the detail of all Slam finalists since the start of 1991 (101 Slams in that time):


Age of Winners

19: 1 (Nadal, RG 2005).

20: 7 (Courier, RG 1991; Kuerten, RG 1997; Safin, UO 2000; Hewitt, UO 2001; Nadal, RG 2006; Djokovic, AO 2008; Del Potro, UO 2009).

21: 8 (Courier, AO 1992; Courier, RG 1992; Sampras, WI 1993; Moya, RG 1998; Hewitt, WI 2002; Federer, WI 2003; Roddick, UO 2003; Nadal, RG 2007).

22: 13 (Stich, WI 1991; Agassi, WI 1992; Courier, AO 1993; Bruguera, RG 1993; Sampras, UO 1993; Sampras AO 1994; Sampras WI 1994; Kafelnikov, RG 1996; Federer, AO 2004; Federer, WI 2004; Nadal, RG 2008; Nadal, WI 2008; Nadal, AO 2009).

23: 8 (Becker, AO 1991; Bruguera, RG 1994; Sampras, WI 1995; Kuerten, RG 2000; Ferrero, RG 2003; Federer, UO 2004; Federer, WI 2005; Djokovic, AO 2011).

24: 16 (Agassi, UO 1994; Agassi, AO 1995; Sampras, UO 1995; Krajicek, WI 1996; Rafter, UO 1997; Kafelnikov, AO 1999; Kuerten, RG 2001; Federer, UO 2005; Federer, AO 2006; Federer, WI 2006; Nadal, RG 2010; Nadal, WI 2010; Nadal, UO 2010; Djokovic, WI 2011; Djokovic, UO 2011; Djokovic, AO 2012).

25: 14 (Edberg, UO 1991; Sampras, UO 1996; Sampras, AO 1997; Sampras, WI 1997; Rafter, UO 1998; Gaudio, RG 2004; Safin, AO 2005; Federer, UO 2006; Federer, AO 2007; Federer, WI 2007; Nadal, RG 2011; Murray, UO 2012; Djokovic, AO 2013; Cilic, UO 2014).

26: 7 (Edberg, UO 1992; Sampras, WI 1998; Johansson, AO 2002; Costa, RG 2002; Federer, UO 2007; Nadal, RG 2012; Murray, WI 2013).

27: 9 (Muster, RG 1995; Sampras, WI 1999; Federer, UO 2008; Federer, RG 2009; Federer, WI 2009; Nadal, RG 2013; Nadal, UO 2013; Djokovic, WI 2014; Djokovic, AO 2015).

28: 8 (Becker, AO 1996; Sampras, WI 2000; Federer, AO 2010; Wawrinka, AO 2014; Nadal, RG 2014; Djokovic, WI 2015; Djokovic, UO 2015; Djokovic, AO 2016).

29: 4 (Agassi, RG 1999; Agassi, UO 1999; Agassi, AO 2000; Ivanisevic, WI 2001).

30: 4 (Korda, AO 1998; Agassi, AO 2001; Federer, WI 2012; Wawrinka, RG 2015).

31: 1 (Sampras, UO 2002).

32: 1 (Agassi, AO 2003).


Age of Runners-Up

20: 7 (Ivanisevic, WI 1992; Berasategui, RG 1994; Moya, AO 1997; Nalbandian, WI 2002; Baghdatis, AO 2006; Nadal, WI 2006; Djokovic, UO 2007).

21: 7 (Agassi, RG 1991; Courier, UO 1991; Sampras, UO 1992; Philippoussis, UO 1998; Roddick, WI 2004; Nadal, WI 2007; Murray, UO 2008).

22: 10 (Courier, RG 1993; Courier, WI 1993; Ivanisevic, WI 1994; Rios, AO 1998; Safin, AO 2002; Ferrero, RG 2002; Coria, RG 2004; Roddick, WI 2005; Tsonga, AO 2008; Murray, AO 2010).

23: 11 (Becker, WI 1991; Martin, AO 1994; Sampras, AO 1995; Chang, RG 1995; Chang, AO 1996; Clement, AO 2001; Ferrero, UO 2003; Hewitt, UO 2004; Hewitt, AO 2005; Djokovic, UO 2010; Murray, AO 2011).

24: 15 (Korda, RG 1992; Pioline, UO 1993; Chang, UO 1996; Rusedski, UO 1997; Corretja, RG 1998; Enqvist, AO 1999; Medvedev, RG 1999; Norman, RG 2000; Verkerk, RG 2003; Safin, AO 2004; Federer, RG 2006; Roddick, UO 2006; Soderling, RG 2009; Berdych, WI 2010; Nishikori, UO 2014).

25: 12 (Stich, UO 1994; Agassi, UO 1995; Kafelnikov, AO 2000; Federer, RG 2007; Soderling, RG 2010; Nadal, WI 2011; Nadal, UO 2011; Nadal, AO 2012; Djokovic, RG 2012; Murray, WI 2012; Djokovic, UO 2012; Murray, AO 2013).

26: 12 (Edberg, AO 1992; Bruguera, RG 1997; Ivanisevic, WI 1998; Schuettler, AO 2003; Philippoussis, WI 2003; Puerta, RG 2005; Gonzalez, AO 2007; Federer, RG 2008; Federer, WI 2008; Roddick, WI 2009; Djokovic, WI 2013; Djokovic, UO 2013).

27: 10 (Edberg, AO 1993; Becker, WI 1995; Stich, RG 1996; Washington, WI 1996; Rafter, WI 2000; Corretja, RG 2001; Federer, AO 2009; Nadal, AO 2014; Djokovic, RG 2014; Murray, AO 2015).

28: 5 (Pioline, WI 1997; Rafter, WI 2001; Federer, UO 2009; Djokovic, RG 2015; Murray, AO 2016).

29: 4 (Agassi, WI 1999; Martin, UO 1999; Sampras, UO 2000; Federer, RG 2011).

30: 2 (Lendl, AO 1991; Sampras, UO 2001).

31: 1 (Ferrer, RG 2013).

32: 2 (Agassi, UO 2002; Federer, WI 2014).

33: 1 (Federer, WI 2015).

34: 1 (Federer, UO 2015).

35: 1 (Agassi, UO 2005).


Age of All Finalists

19: 1

20: 14

21: 15

22: 23

23: 19

24: 31

25: 26

26: 19

27: 19

28: 13

29: 8

30: 6

31: 2

32: 3

33: 1

34: 1

35: 1
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
@Chanwan

Here's the detail of all Slam finalists since the start of 1991 (101 Slams in that time):


Age of Winners

19: 1 (Nadal, RG 2005).

20: 7 (Courier, RG 1991; Kuerten, RG 1997; Safin, UO 2000; Hewitt, UO 2001; Nadal, RG 2006; Djokovic, AO 2008; Del Potro, UO 2009).

21: 8 (Courier, AO 1992; Courier, RG 1992; Sampras, WI 1993; Moya, RG 1998; Hewitt, WI 2002; Federer, WI 2003; Roddick, UO 2003; Nadal, RG 2007).

22: 13 (Stich, WI 1991; Agassi, WI 1992; Courier, AO 1993; Bruguera, RG 1993; Sampras, UO 1993; Sampras AO 1994; Sampras WI 1994; Kafelnikov, RG 1996; Federer, AO 2004; Federer, WI 2004; Nadal, RG 2008; Nadal, WI 2008; Nadal, AO 2009).

23: 8 (Becker, AO 1991; Bruguera, RG 1994; Sampras, WI 1995; Kuerten, RG 2000; Ferrero, RG 2003; Federer, UO 2004; Federer, WI 2005; Djokovic, AO 2011).

24: 16 (Agassi, UO 1994; Agassi, AO 1995; Sampras, UO 1995; Krajicek, WI 1996; Rafter, UO 1997; Kafelnikov, AO 1999; Kuerten, RG 2001; Federer, UO 2005; Federer, AO 2006; Federer, WI 2006; Nadal, RG 2010; Nadal, WI 2010; Nadal, UO 2010; Djokovic, WI 2011; Djokovic, UO 2011; Djokovic, AO 2012).

25: 14 (Edberg, UO 1991; Sampras, UO 1996; Sampras, AO 1997; Sampras, WI 1997; Rafter, UO 1998; Gaudio, RG 2004; Safin, AO 2005; Federer, UO 2006; Federer, AO 2007; Federer, WI 2007; Nadal, RG 2011; Murray, UO 2012; Djokovic, AO 2013; Cilic, UO 2014).

26: 7 (Edberg, UO 1992; Sampras, WI 1998; Johansson, AO 2002; Costa, RG 2002; Federer, UO 2007; Nadal, RG 2012; Murray, WI 2013).

27: 9 (Muster, RG 1995; Sampras, WI 1999; Federer, UO 2008; Federer, RG 2009; Federer, WI 2009; Nadal, RG 2013; Nadal, UO 2013; Djokovic, WI 2014; Djokovic, AO 2015).

28: 8 (Becker, AO 1996; Sampras, WI 2000; Federer, AO 2010; Wawrinka, AO 2014; Nadal, RG 2014; Djokovic, WI 2015; Djokovic, UO 2015; Djokovic, AO 2016).

29: 4 (Agassi, RG 1999; Agassi, UO 1999; Agassi, AO 2000; Ivanisevic, WI 2001).

30: 4 (Korda, AO 1998; Agassi, AO 2001; Federer, WI 2012; Wawrinka, RG 2015).

31: 1 (Sampras, UO 2002).

32: 1 (Agassi, AO 2003).


Age of Runners-Up

20: 7 (Ivanisevic, WI 1992; Berasategui, RG 1994; Moya, AO 1997; Nalbandian, WI 2002; Baghdatis, AO 2006; Nadal, WI 2006; Djokovic, UO 2007).

21: 7 (Agassi, RG 1991; Courier, UO 1991; Sampras, UO 1992; Philippoussis, UO 1998; Roddick, WI 2004; Nadal, WI 2007; Murray, UO 2008).

22: 10 (Courier, RG 1993; Courier, WI 1993; Ivanisevic, WI 1994; Rios, AO 1998; Safin, AO 2002; Ferrero, RG 2002; Coria, RG 2004; Roddick, WI 2005; Tsonga, AO 2008; Murray, AO 2010).

23: 11 (Becker, WI 1991; Martin, AO 1994; Sampras, AO 1995; Chang, RG 1995; Chang, AO 1996; Clement, AO 2001; Ferrero, UO 2003; Hewitt, UO 2004; Hewitt, AO 2005; Djokovic, UO 2010; Murray, AO 2011).

24: 15 (Korda, RG 1992; Pioline, UO 1993; Chang, UO 1996; Rusedski, UO 1997; Corretja, RG 1998; Enqvist, AO 1999; Medvedev, RG 1999; Norman, RG 2000; Verkerk, RG 2003; Safin, AO 2004; Federer, RG 2006; Roddick, UO 2006; Soderling, RG 2009; Berdych, WI 2010; Nishikori, UO 2014).

25: 12 (Stich, UO 1994; Agassi, UO 1995; Kafelnikov, AO 2000; Federer, RG 2007; Soderling, RG 2010; Nadal, WI 2011; Nadal, UO 2011; Nadal, AO 2012; Djokovic, RG 2012; Murray, WI 2012; Djokovic, UO 2012; Murray, AO 2013).

26: 12 (Edberg, AO 1992; Bruguera, RG 1997; Ivanisevic, WI 1998; Schuettler, AO 2003; Philippoussis, WI 2003; Puerta, RG 2005; Gonzalez, AO 2007; Federer, RG 2008; Federer, WI 2008; Roddick, WI 2009; Djokovic, WI 2013; Djokovic, UO 2013).

27: 10 (Edberg, AO 1993; Becker, WI 1995; Stich, RG 1996; Washington, WI 1996; Rafter, WI 2000; Corretja, RG 2001; Federer, AO 2009; Nadal, AO 2014; Djokovic, RG 2014; Murray, AO 2015).

28: 5 (Pioline, WI 1997; Rafter, WI 2001; Federer, UO 2009; Djokovic, RG 2015; Murray, AO 2016).

29: 4 (Agassi, WI 1999; Martin, UO 1999; Sampras, UO 2000; Federer, RG 2011).

30: 2 (Lendl, AO 1991; Sampras, UO 2001).

31: 1 (Ferrer, RG 2013).

32: 2 (Agassi, UO 2002; Federer, WI 2014).

33: 1 (Federer, WI 2015).

34: 1 (Federer, UO 2015).

35: 1 (Agassi, UO 2005).


Age of All Finalists

19: 1

20: 14

21: 15

22: 23

23: 19

24: 31

25: 26

26: 19

27: 19

28: 13

29: 8

30: 6

31: 2

32: 3

33: 1

34: 1

35: 1
Now let's close our eyes and imagine today's 22-27 year olds were anything like their predecessors.....................................................sorry, I can't.
 
Now let's close our eyes and imagine today's 22-27 year olds were anything like their predecessors.....................................................sorry, I can't.
Five of the eight 28-year-old winners have been in the last 9 Slams! If Djokovic were three weeks younger than he is, there'd be a good chance 28 would tie 27 at Roland Garros!
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
Five of the eight 28-year-old winners have been in the last 9 Slams! If Djokovic were three weeks younger than he is, there'd be a good chance 28 would tie 27 at Roland Garros!
and 29 is on track to finally pull ahead of the 30 year olds with Djoko turning 29...
 
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