2011 Clay court season: Thoughtful discussion

Wow Karlovic had to go through qualifying to get to the main draw of the US Men's Clay Court Championships. He's up against Isner in the QFs. Talk about battle of the serves.
 
AhmedD said:
... get this feeling that Fed will have an exceptionally good clay court season this year.
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I agree in some ways. One thing that Federer has shown over many years is his ability to ignore last week, bounce back and play great.

AhmedD said:
Some people seriously underestimate Federer's clay court abilities. He has beaten Nadal on clay before
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Yep. 4 French Open finals in a row with 1 win plus 5 masters 1000 series clay-court titles wins and 7 runner-ups gives plenty of weight to the notion that he is - by far - the 2nd best clay court player of this decade.
 
aceX said:
I know buckethead already made a clay season thread, but I disliked the fact that it's all about whether or not Nadal will win everything again.

Let's keep the discussion thoughtful. ****s need not post here.

Alright so April of course means the start of the clay court season. There are several interesting storylines unfolding this clay court season:

Djokovic currently has not lost a singles match this year. Many are predicting an end to this streak during the clay court season (if not sooner). From what I understand the height of the clay court bounce is similar to that of the slower hard courts (AO, IW, Miami). It seems to me that Djokovic might be able to quickly adapt his current red hot play to the clay and continue his streak. I wouldn't be surprised to see Djokovic reach the Monte Carlo final.

Nadal achieved the clay court sweep last year. Interestingly Nadal is actually looking in better form than the start of the clay court season last year! Could this be a bad thing since last year he felt the need to make monte carlo his 'return-to-form' tournament whereas currently his level is so high that he may not see the need to focus on monte carlo as much as he seemed to last year.

Federer seems to be playing low % tennis. He's coming to the net more and going for his shots. I hope to see Federer fully commit to trying to regain his Roland Garros title. The change to clay and its corresponding focus on consistency will require Roger to get rid of his low % play - at least temporarily. I actually think he will increase his Wimbledon title chances if reaches good form while focusing on high % tennis.

Ferrer has had a good start to the year. Beat Nadal in the AO QF - I know Nadal was injured but Ferrer was playing very well in that match. Reached the semifinal, losing to Murray in 4 while Murray was playing good agressive tennis - unlike how he played in the final. Ferrer's best results seem to come on clay. Reached the Rome final last year, losing to Nadal. Ferrer won Acapulco, Mexico ATP World Tour 500 (on clay) in Feb of this year so you can bet that Ferrer is looking forward to more clay tournaments.

Murray says he actually likes clay although he doesn't have the same results there as he does on hard court. He is currently on a losing streak at the moment. This is almost a carbon copy of last year - losing in the AO final and really losing fire at IW and Miami. It seems like his counterpunching style should suit the clay - can someone tell me why he doesn't do well on clay?

Last year Verdasco reached the Monte Carlo final (losing it 6-0, 6-1 to Nadal - oops!) and won Barcelona (beating soderling in the final). Lost to Berdych at AO this year, Lost to Raonic in the final of San Jose and then in the first round (!!!) of Memphis. Lost to Bellucci in the first round of Mexico clay 500 during Feb. Lost to Querrey at IW and P Andújar at his first match of Miami. So he doesn't seem to be in top 10 form currently but he claimed last year he was a top 5 clay player so we'll just have to see how he goes.

Juan Martin del Potro - the man himself is back. Won delray beach, semis at Indian wells, lost to Fish at Miami (Fish is in good form). I expect him to go deep in a couple of clay tournaments and take out some big names. One to watch for sure.

Soderling - Two french open finals, beating the defending champion on his way to both finals. Not a fan-favourite but definitely a force on clay. He doesn't seem to be in his best form at the moment, though. Saying that he did reach the fourth round of the Australian Open (his best run at that tournament) losing to a hot Dolgopolov. If he's in good form he'll have a chance to win any clay tournament he enters - even the French.

Almagro has the game to go deep, but seems to lack the mental tools to stay in control. Mexico clay 500 finalist this year.
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I like this thread a lot especially the following post.

Juan Martin del Potro[/B] - the man himself is back. Won delray beach, semis at Indian wells, lost to Fish at Miami (Fish is in good form). I expect him to go deep in a couple of clay tournaments and take out some big names. One to watch for sure.

Do you think Fish is going to be in the top 15? Thanks.
 
Delpo: not there yet to go deep IMO, but good enough to damage anyone.

Nadal will focus on the FO, but will relax a bit at the other clays (SF, runner up).

I wouldn't be surprised to see a win for each of the top 3 in the Masters, but not at the FO, where Nadal will take it.
 
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My thoughts. As in the past six years it's going to be almost impossible for any player to topple a healthy Nadal. If not healthy, anyone in the top 10 or perhaps top 20 has a chance to beat him... choose the one of your preference. I don't think anyone with a little bit of common sense would bet more than a few dollars on someone other than a healthy Nadal.

My second favorite is Federer, by far. Why? He has had repeated success in clay, he has tons of variety (including a sick slice only magnified in clay), he moves well in clay and I truly believe that his best chances are not in hard courts anymore. If Nadal loses before the semis, I'd say Federer has a decent chance. Regarding those who say that Del Potro is weak in clay, let's remember the DelPo-Roger match of 2009. IMO, best match of that year. Del Po can certainly do a lot of damage in clay, only problem is that he's not yet at his old level. But if he finds his form before RG, I would count DelPo in the list of candidates. As for the others, I don't think Djokovic, Murray or Soderling have a real chance. I know Soderling has been a runner up twice, but his level this year doesn't appear to be where it was. Same can be said for Roger, but a champion is more likely to find his footing again.
 
Faceb**k said:
I like this thread a lot especially the following post.

Juan Martin del Potro - the man himself is back. Won delray beach, semis at Indian wells, lost to Fish at Miami (Fish is in good form). I expect him to go deep in a couple of clay tournaments and take out some big names. One to watch for sure.

Do you think Fish is going to be in the top 15? Thanks.
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Fish is currently ranked #11 :)

He only has 105 points from the 2010 clay court season - almost nothing to lose. He's the top seed at the US clay court atp 250 so that will be a good indication of how his current form will fare on clay. He's counterpunching more than he used to, hanging in rallies longer, lost a whole bunch of weight last year. So he could make the top 10 during this clay season.
 
rdis10093 said:
hope he plays raonic
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Raonic -

I predict Raonic will be quite lackluster on clay.

He went 7-5 during one set in the clay of davis cup victory against a player ranked 439. When I watched the match I was a little disappointed. His serve is what prevented the match from turning into somewhat difficult. When they got into rallies the 439th ranked player did pretty darn well. Take away Raonics serve THAT match and he would still have won (possibly in 4 sets) but it would have been difficult.
 
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To me it's still Nadal's crown to lose at RG. I just hope that everyone for once steps up and brings it. Djoker seems full of confidence, and it's hard to write him off and say he can't at least challenge Nadal on clay. Federer is of course still solid, I think he can and will translate the consistency he seems to have found on HC over to clay. I hope Soderling can for once bring it in the CC MS events. It's not like he's had a bad year, he has 3 titles IIRC, but losing to Dolgopolov and JMDP on HC aren't horrible losses.

And then you have guys on the next tier guys like Ferrer, Almagro, Wawrinka, Verdasco, who always seem like guys capable of big wins on the surface (edit: Verdasco? Big wins? :lol:). The wildcards are JMDP, Murray (if he can get his head right), Berdych who people forget made RG SF last year (at least I hadn't seen his name mentioned yet), Monfils, Melzer.

The clay field this year seems to be stronger than this time last year, if only b/c top guys like Djokovic and Fed seem to be in better form to possible challenge Nadal.
 
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jamesblakefan#1 said:
To me it's still Nadal's crown to lose at RG. I just hope that everyone for once steps up and brings it. Djoker seems full of confidence, and it's hard to write him off and say he can't at least challenge Nadal on clay. Federer is of course still solid, I think he can and will translate the consistency he seems to have found on HC over to clay. I hope Soderling can for once bring it in the CC MS events. It's not like he's had a bad year, he has 3 titles IIRC, but losing to Dolgopolov and JMDP on HC aren't horrible losses.

And then you have guys on the next tier guys like Ferrer, Almagro, Wawrinka, Verdasco, who always seem like guys capable of big wins on the surface. The wildcards are JMDP, Murray (if he can get his head right), Berdych who people forget made RG SF last year (at least I hadn't seen his name mentioned yet), Monfils, Melzer.


The clay field this year seems to be stronger than this time last year, if only b/c top guys like Djokovic and Fed seem to be in better form to possible challenge Nadal.
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That's a pretty fair assessment, Well Done.
 
jamesblakefan#1 said:
To me it's still Nadal's crown to lose at RG. I just hope that everyone for once steps up and brings it. Djoker seems full of confidence, and it's hard to write him off and say he can't at least challenge Nadal on clay. Federer is of course still solid, I think he can and will translate the consistency he seems to have found on HC over to clay. I hope Soderling can for once bring it in the CC MS events. It's not like he's had a bad year, he has 3 titles IIRC, but losing to Dolgopolov and JMDP on HC aren't horrible losses.

And then you have guys on the next tier guys like Ferrer, Almagro, Wawrinka, Verdasco, who always seem like guys capable of big wins on the surface (edit: Verdasco? Big wins? :lol:). The wildcards are JMDP, Murray (if he can get his head right), Berdych who people forget made RG SF last year (at least I hadn't seen his name mentioned yet), Monfils, Melzer.

The clay field this year seems to be stronger than this time last year, if only b/c top guys like Djokovic and Fed seem to be in better form to possible challenge Nadal.
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I ask for thoughtful discussion and I am not disappointed. :)

I was thinking about Monfils this morning. So much potential there. He was my US Open darkhorse pick (he made the QF there). Raw physical potential; it looks like he could be world class in almost any sport. It seems to me that one day he's going to show up at a big tournament; come from nowhere and win it. Although it's not fair to say come from no where since he's been top 20 for a while now - he rarely gets mentioned when it comes to winning a big title.

Yup Berdych deserves credit for his SF run at RG last year. Although he lost in the first round of RG in 09! I wonder if he will be able to recreate his RG/wimbly form from last year.
 
Monfils will do well sometimes as he always does on clay, but I can't now believe he will ever live up to his potential.

Watch out for Wawrinka! He's a good clay player and playing really well now.
 
jamesblakefan#1 said:
To me it's still Nadal's crown to lose at RG. I just hope that everyone for once steps up and brings it. Djoker seems full of confidence, and it's hard to write him off and say he can't at least challenge Nadal on clay. Federer is of course still solid, I think he can and will translate the consistency he seems to have found on HC over to clay. I hope Soderling can for once bring it in the CC MS events. It's not like he's had a bad year, he has 3 titles IIRC, but losing to Dolgopolov and JMDP on HC aren't horrible losses.

And then you have guys on the next tier guys like Ferrer, Almagro, Wawrinka, Verdasco, who always seem like guys capable of big wins on the surface (edit: Verdasco? Big wins? :lol:). The wildcards are JMDP, Murray (if he can get his head right), Berdych who people forget made RG SF last year (at least I hadn't seen his name mentioned yet), Monfils, Melzer.

The clay field this year seems to be stronger than this time last year, if only b/c top guys like Djokovic and Fed seem to be in better form to possible challenge Nadal.
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Federer has been consistent with his results on hard courts but not with his play which has been mostly a stream of groundstroke errors and erratic serving, especialy in his losses. There is no way he will challenge Nadal on clay when he couldnt even challenge him in their meeting this year on hard courts.

I agree Djokovic has the potential to challenge Nadal on clay this year perhaps, the only one to do so.
 
Well, Fish has lost to Nishikori at the US Clay 250 3-6 2-6. I didn't see the match so I can't really comment on it. The scoreline suggests it wasn't a close one. I can't see Fish going far this clay season if he's losing to guys like Nishikori. Not that I have anything against Nishikori.
 
Djokovic MC pull-out wise move

Given he must play the home tourney, Djokovic is wise to skip MC. That was going to be too much tennis doing all the MS's and Belgrade. I don't believe the knee is a chronic injury so he'll be a factor through RG. There's a reason for the tape job but he'll be ready to go deep wherever the event. I see 3 out of 4 finals with at least one title, possibly 2 (Belgrade Madrid).
 
Let me try and rule some players out it might be easier.

Monfils is injured. Almagro has losing records against Ferrer 3-0, Nadal 5-0, Federer 3-0, Djokovic 1-0 if you don't count the challenger circuit, which I don't. So he has no form over any of the other contenders for the title, over 5 sets and two weeks thats a huge negative.

Murray is out of form. He could go to the 4th round/quaters wouldnt surprise me but when he runs into someone in form with a huge weapon ala Gonzalez, Berdych he will be the underdog with me if not the bookies.

Dolgopolov and Verdasco are streaky players that could either lose 1st round or make the quaters. Its hard to back either of these two to preform consistently enough to win with any real confidence, though both have weapons to go far.
 
Monte Carlo Masters

Well after a 1000 mile drive I'm finally at the Monte Carlo Masters. Had a great day watching amongst others Ferrer, Meltzer, Youzhny, Davydenko, Tsonga, Stepanek, Chela, Ljubicic, Cilic, Verdasco, F. Lopez all getting used to the clay.

Looking forward to the Roger Federer Press Conference tomorrow and the Wozniacki - Schiavone exhibition on Monday evening.

Check out my blog at www.soyouwanttowinwimbledon.com

MB
 
MARTINBALDRIDGE said:
Well after a 1000 mile drive I'm finally at the Monte Carlo Masters. Had a great day watching amongst others Ferrer, Meltzer, Youzhny, Davydenko, Tsonga, Stepanek, Chela, Ljubicic, Cilic, Verdasco, F. Lopez all getting used to the clay.

Looking forward to the Roger Federer Press Conference tomorrow and the Wozniacki - Schiavone exhibition on Monday evening.

Check out my blog at www.soyouwanttowinwimbledon.com

MB
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That is a hell of a drive to do in 2 days you must be mad! Whats the price of petrol in France? Those lucky french get everything at half the price. Have you got finals tickets? Hope you have a great time and are not to knackered. lol.
 
Raonic could hypothetically meet Verdasco in the 4th round.

**fingers crossed for a Raonic victory**
 
rainingaces said:
That is a hell of a drive to do in 2 days you must be mad! Whats the price of petrol in France? Those lucky french get everything at half the price. Have you got finals tickets? Hope you have a great time and are not to knackered. lol.
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Yes I admit it - I'm mad!!!

Petrol costs between 1.40 and 1.55 Euros per litre - that's only half the problem, the other is the cost of those damn Peages - ridiculous, doubles the cost of the journey.

Great tennis today though and will only get better.

After Monte Carlo my wife's joining me for a 2 week motorhome tour of Provence, Burgundy and Champagne. Then back for the Royal Wedding then the real world.

MB
 
MARTINBALDRIDGE said:
Yes I admit it - I'm mad!!!

Petrol costs between 1.40 and 1.55 Euros per litre - that's only half the problem, the other is the cost of those damn Peages - ridiculous, doubles the cost of the journey.

Great tennis today though and will only get better.

After Monte Carlo my wife's joining me for a 2 week motorhome tour of Provence, Burgundy and Champagne. Then back for the Royal Wedding then the real world.

MB
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Still better then losing it in the casinos, enjoy the tennis. :)
 
RyanRF said:
Raonic could hypothetically meet Verdasco in the 4th round.

**fingers crossed for a Raonic victory**
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I predict Raonic will be quite lackluster on clay.

I saw him play both the davis cup matches against players ranked +600 and 439. He went 7-5 during one set in the clay of davis cup victory against the player ranked 439. When I watched the match I was a little disappointed. The entire match his serve is what prevented the match from turning into somewhat difficult yet when they got into rallies the 439th ranked player did pretty darn well. Raonic wasn't exactly dominating. Take away Raonics serve THAT match and he would still have won (possibly in 4 sets) but it would have been difficult.

Against Verdasco one of the top 15-25 in the world on clay and as much as I'd like Raonic to win, I doubt he could. His serve is still effective though it doesn't have quite the punch as on HC, and he's not as good at movement or overall claycourt game.
 
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PCXL-Fan said:
I predict Raonic will be quite lackluster on clay.

I saw him play both the davis cup matches against players ranked +600 and 439. He went 7-5 during one set in the clay of davis cup victory against the player ranked 439. When I watched the match I was a little disappointed. The entire match his serve is what prevented the match from turning into somewhat difficult yet when they got into rallies the 439th ranked player did pretty darn well. Raonic wasn't exactly dominating. Take away Raonics serve THAT match and he would still have won (possibly in 4 sets) but it would have been difficult.

Against Verdasco one of the top 15-25 in the world on clay and as much as I'd like Raonic to win, I doubt he could. His serve is still effective though it doesn't have quite the punch as on HC, and he's not as good at movement or overall claycourt game.
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Yes I agree completely. Just being hopeful :)
 
Well Roger Federer seems to have made the transition to clay easily. Great to see him hitting with a lot of top spin and playing with consistency.
 
aceX said:
Well Roger Federer seems to have made the transition to clay easily. Great to see him hitting with a lot of top spin and playing with consistency.
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Hello there, fellow human being. :)


Yes, Fognini will win the clay tournaments, no?


:shock:
 
aceX said:
Haha Fognini is great to watch and he had that epic against Monfils at the last French Open. Not sure if Fognini has the mindset to win a big clay tournament yet.
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funny-pictures-the-internet-is-a-series-of-tubes2.jpg
 
Well who would have thought Murray would make it to the QFs!

Melzer is one I didn't mention who is making moves early this CC season.

The Monte Carlo SFs should be interesting.
 
Well Murray managed to take a set of Nadal at Nadal's ideal tournament - Monte Carlo. Quite a decent achievement considering Murray has never done much on clay.

Ferrer also into the final. Great start for the CC season for him.
 
I've always thought that Murray gets short shrift when it comes to his ability on clay. Sure it's his worst surface, but he does have experience on it and when I watch him play, he seems comfortable enough on it and not a fish out of water like the Roddicks of the world.

And a QF a few years ago and losing last year to Berdych aren't bad results at RG. I hope this match gives him confidence on the surface. Even if he doesn't make RG QF, he can still gain momentum and confidence on clay and carry it over to grass, and hopefully finally break through at Wimbledon.
 
Diminished Expectations=Less Pressure

jamesblakefan#1 said:
I've always thought that Murray gets short shrift when it comes to his ability on clay. Sure it's his worst surface, but he does have experience on it and when I watch him play, he seems comfortable enough on it and not a fish out of water like the Roddicks of the world.

And a QF a few years ago and losing last year to Berdych aren't bad results at RG. I hope this match gives him confidence on the surface. Even if he doesn't make RG QF, he can still gain momentum and confidence on clay and carry it over to grass, and hopefully finally break through at Wimbledon.
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I remember a Career Slam winner who bombed out in major finals on more favored surfaces only to break through for a first major title at a place he said he disliked only a few years before. The champion? Of course, Andre!

Remember, Murray left the vacuum of competition in the UK for Barcelona and the dirt so he is more than comfortable. I'm still not ready to call him a threat at RG this year after the recent roller coaster-like results, but a solid coach in place for a full year, a new poutless attitude and allaround maturity, and he will be a deep threat at every major.
 
This is a bit disturbing. Rafa isn't playing as well as he normally does. He needs to pick it up if he is to repeat as French open champ.
 
Well, out of the two biggest clay tourneys so far (Monte Carlo and Barcelona) we've had two Nadal v.s. Ferrer finals. Ferrer is looking like the #2 clay courter at the moment.
 
Madrid is going to be an interesting tournament!

Djokovic still hasn't lost.

Nadal has won the last two clay tournaments.

Ferrer has made two finals.

Del potro looks in good form.
 
I'm actually hoping for a Djokovic/Nadal RG final now, particularly if Djoker's still undefeated at that point. Would be interested to see if Djoker finally took out Nadal in a slam, RG nonetheless.
 
jamesblakefan#1 said:
I'm actually hoping for a Djokovic/Nadal RG final now, particularly if Djoker's still undefeated at that point. Would be interested to see if Djoker finally took out Nadal in a slam, RG nonetheless.
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Djokovic/Nadal RG final would be epic!

Man it's hard to believe Djokovic beating Nadal on clay. Shows just how well he's playing. Madrid is faster clay but still! With this, Novak knows he can beat anyone on any kind of court.
 
Well I guess some of my predictions were right!

Djokovic transitioned well to clay and Ferrer has done well.

Also del potro won a title!
 
Sunday in Rome Would Be Fun Too

jamesblakefan#1 said:
I'm actually hoping for a Djokovic/Nadal RG final now, particularly if Djoker's still undefeated at that point. Would be interested to see if Djoker finally took out Nadal in a slam, RG nonetheless.
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I'm thinking a final in Rome would be the perfect lead-up to an RG showdown. You gotta know ND is all up in Ralph's head already. If he beats him again before Paris we might not get an RG match-up...Ralph will deef rather than lose five times in a row.
 
Buckethead said:
Watch out for Dolgopolov, Ferrer, Davydenko, Soderling, Raonic, Del Potro, Almagro, Wawrinka, these guys will have a good clay season and challenge Nadal.
I think Djokovic will have his first win against Rafa on clay.
Roger will make all semis in all tournaments he plays and he'll keep the streak going.
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I said it before it happened.
Roger still making all the semis besides Monte Carlo, almost beat Nadal, Djokovic beat Nadal as I said , Davydenko won a tournament, Del Po the same, but wawrinka and dolgopolov are really playing bad.
I can't get it all right though.
 
I'm Liking What I Said in early April

stringertom said:
Your rankings are obviously based heavily on 2010 Euro clay results. ND moves up due to redeveloped serve and the confidence factor surrounding 2011 results. Soderling is rock and has met his paper, Delpo, who simply outhits the big-hitter. Fed or Ferrer could be the scissors to cut paper. If ND wins Miami tomorrow, he will blow up in Europe and make it 1 & 1A. Delpo, Fed, Sod and Ferrer will be closer to each other than any of them to the top 2.
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The middle weekend in Paris is upon us and my brash predictions are holding up pretty well. Can't wait for the final week of Euroclay '11. It has been the most interesting season in decades. Thanks, AceX for the OP!
 
stringertom said:
The middle weekend in Paris is upon us and my brash predictions are holding up pretty well. Can't wait for the final week of Euroclay '11. It has been the most interesting season in decades. Thanks, AceX for the OP!
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I thought 2009 was interesting too.
Bit biased, but 2009 was nice.
 
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