Third Serve
Talk Tennis Guru
I'm only interested in the facts. Nothing more.
In my search for objective metrics by which to determine the GOAT, I came across Roger Federer's Ask Me Anything thread over on r/tennis, and he had some candid thoughts for the public which might prove rather illuminating. The full thread is here:
The AMA was held during the middle of Federer's highly lauded 2013 season. One of the questions he was asked pertained to the strategy he would employ during a hypothetical match against his 2007 self. His response follows below, emphasis mine:
This really tells us a lot about how much the competition improved in 2013. Back in 2007, no one could really hope to usurp Federer from the top spot in the rankings, but with the knowledge of what all has occurred since those dark days, objective tennis observers now realize that this was because the field had not yet evolved to a point where it could properly be considered "strong." Look at 2013: despite Federer being, by his own admission, a better, more complete player than in 2007, a whopping five players were able to surpass him in the rankings by the time all the points were tallied up at the end of the year, demonstrating immense depth of the field: Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, David Ferrer, Andy Murray, and Juan Martin Del Potro.
All five of the above players accrued at least 1,000 more ranking points than Federer by making it deeper into the Slams and other big tournaments like the ATP Finals. Federer's head-to-head records against these players looked like this:
Rafael Nadal: 0-4
Novak Djokovic: 0-2
David Ferrer: 0-0
Andy Murray: 0-1
Juan Martin Del Potro: 2-1
Things don't look so bright here either. I really do shudder to think of what these five players could do if they were magically transported into the 2007 ATP Tour.
It does not take a drastic leap of logic to suggest that David Ferrer would win the coveted Calendar Year Grand Slam in 2007. We have already demonstrated above that Ferrer was certainly a better tennis player than Federer during the 2013 season (in case another proof is needed, Ferrer reached a Slam final and reached QF or better in all four, while Federer lost early in the last two and only ever reached as far as a SF). If, by Federer's own admission, his 2013 self was superior to his 2007 self as a tennis player, and if 2007 Federer was better than the rest of the 2007 field (a statement one would hardly find difficult to prove), then it follows that 2013 Ferrer was better than the whole 2007 field, 2007 Federer included.
It is expected that better players accumulate greater results within a season than weaker players. So let's suppose that we take our 2013 Ferrer and plop him into the 2007 ATP Tour in lieu of 2007 Federer, a demonstrably weaker player. Obviously, matchups exist and they may be different for Ferrer, but I think that given what we've learned about just how superior the Spaniard is, it's more likely than not that he surpasses Federer's achievements in that season. What were those achievements exactly? Three Slam victories and an additional Slam final.
I do believe a CYGS could be on the cards for David Ferrer. And the same of course applies to those other four players who outclassed Federer in 2013. Truly, the evolution of the tour is a marvel to behold. Just think about the level of tennis we witness today, ten long years of advancement and improvement over even 2013.
P.S: This thread includes a current professional tennis player (Andy Murray) and an inactive--not retired--player (Juan Martin Del Potro), so I believe its location in General Pro Player Discussion is most appropriate.
In my search for objective metrics by which to determine the GOAT, I came across Roger Federer's Ask Me Anything thread over on r/tennis, and he had some candid thoughts for the public which might prove rather illuminating. The full thread is here:
The AMA was held during the middle of Federer's highly lauded 2013 season. One of the questions he was asked pertained to the strategy he would employ during a hypothetical match against his 2007 self. His response follows below, emphasis mine:
This really tells us a lot about how much the competition improved in 2013. Back in 2007, no one could really hope to usurp Federer from the top spot in the rankings, but with the knowledge of what all has occurred since those dark days, objective tennis observers now realize that this was because the field had not yet evolved to a point where it could properly be considered "strong." Look at 2013: despite Federer being, by his own admission, a better, more complete player than in 2007, a whopping five players were able to surpass him in the rankings by the time all the points were tallied up at the end of the year, demonstrating immense depth of the field: Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, David Ferrer, Andy Murray, and Juan Martin Del Potro.
All five of the above players accrued at least 1,000 more ranking points than Federer by making it deeper into the Slams and other big tournaments like the ATP Finals. Federer's head-to-head records against these players looked like this:
Rafael Nadal: 0-4
Novak Djokovic: 0-2
David Ferrer: 0-0
Andy Murray: 0-1
Juan Martin Del Potro: 2-1
Things don't look so bright here either. I really do shudder to think of what these five players could do if they were magically transported into the 2007 ATP Tour.
It does not take a drastic leap of logic to suggest that David Ferrer would win the coveted Calendar Year Grand Slam in 2007. We have already demonstrated above that Ferrer was certainly a better tennis player than Federer during the 2013 season (in case another proof is needed, Ferrer reached a Slam final and reached QF or better in all four, while Federer lost early in the last two and only ever reached as far as a SF). If, by Federer's own admission, his 2013 self was superior to his 2007 self as a tennis player, and if 2007 Federer was better than the rest of the 2007 field (a statement one would hardly find difficult to prove), then it follows that 2013 Ferrer was better than the whole 2007 field, 2007 Federer included.
It is expected that better players accumulate greater results within a season than weaker players. So let's suppose that we take our 2013 Ferrer and plop him into the 2007 ATP Tour in lieu of 2007 Federer, a demonstrably weaker player. Obviously, matchups exist and they may be different for Ferrer, but I think that given what we've learned about just how superior the Spaniard is, it's more likely than not that he surpasses Federer's achievements in that season. What were those achievements exactly? Three Slam victories and an additional Slam final.
I do believe a CYGS could be on the cards for David Ferrer. And the same of course applies to those other four players who outclassed Federer in 2013. Truly, the evolution of the tour is a marvel to behold. Just think about the level of tennis we witness today, ten long years of advancement and improvement over even 2013.
P.S: This thread includes a current professional tennis player (Andy Murray) and an inactive--not retired--player (Juan Martin Del Potro), so I believe its location in General Pro Player Discussion is most appropriate.
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