2016 Djokovic - ridiculously low odds

[Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil]

If you want to bet on him winning the Australian Open and he wins it, you won't even double your money (1,91).

You will barely double your money if you bet on him finally winning the French Open and he does so (2,10), while Nadal is 4,00.

Odds at Wimbledon and US Open are the same (2,30). At both of those tournaments, Andy Murray is a distant second (4,50 and 5,50).

The same betting company that came up with these odds (Betway) have put quite low odds on Djokovic winning all 4 Slams and the Olympic gold (21,00). The CYGS is only 10,00 while winning 3 out of 4 is less than half of that (4,50).

William Hill think he is an even bigger favorite - CYGS is 9,00 while 3 out of 4 is 4,00.

Though I didn't see other odds, I was wondering... are Betway and William Hill for real???

 

[Poisoned Slice]

Djokovic is just that damn good.

Better off wasting my $1 on Roger Federer winning all 4 at 500-1

 

[President]

It's understandable, every time he loses it is basically a shock. It's hard to see anyone beating him in a major apart from Wawrinka, who only seems to be able to summon that form once a year. Maybe if Nadal gets his mojo back he can be a threat too.

 

[Shaolin]

Odds will go up slightly once they get news of Ljuberer.

 

[Tiki-Taka]

I doubt he is winning all 4, yet alone all 4 + OG. Even the non-calendar Grand Slam is a question mark, but these odds are really low even for me who never placed any bets in my life. If Djokovic proves me wrong again, I would lie if I said I wouldn't be happy with that. The guy is amazing on and off the court.

Maybe some betting addicts can tell us how did Federer stand at the end of his best years with these odds...

 

[helterskelter]

I doubt he is winning all 4, yet alone all 4 + OG. Even the non-calendar Grand Slam is a question mark, but these odds are really low even for me who never placed any bets in my life. If Djokovic proves me wrong again, I would lie if I said I wouldn't be happy with that. The guy is amazing on and off the court.

Maybe some betting addicts can tell us how did Federer stand at the end of his best years with these odds...

Even at those odds for each tournament, the bookies give Djokovic something like a 3-4% chance of winning the calendar Slam.

 

[Tiki-Taka]

Even at those odds for each tournament, the bookies give Djokovic something like a 3-4% chance of winning the calendar Slam.

My guess is that they are still the lowest ever, unless someone shows that Federer in 2004-07 had lower.

 

[Sysyphus]

Almost as low odds for RG as for AO seems a bit ridiculous to me. Firstly, he has won one of them five times, the other zero. Secondly, RG is like half a year away—a lot can happen* in that space of time in tennis, as history has revealed.






*I'm thinking of, for instance, the imminent total domination of tennis by Dimitrov.

 

[Gazelle]

If the CYGS is only 10,00 that would seem like an amazing 'lay' to me. It's not something that happens every ten years, far off.

 

[beltsman]

My guess is that they are still the lowest ever, unless someone shows that Federer in 2004-07 had lower.

Why do you write in italics? Difficult to read.

 

[Tiki-Taka]

Why do you write in italics? Difficult to read.

No real reason. You are lucky nobody here chose a different color. At least I never saw anyone yet...

 

[beltsman]

No real reason. You are lucky nobody here chose a different color. At least I never saw anyone yet...

Here you go.

 

[Tiki-Taka]

Here you go.

I can do better than that.
See...

 

[beltsman]

I can do better than that.
See...

White is too easy

 

[Tiki-Taka]

White is too easy

Simplicity over decoration.

 

[Gary Duane]

Almost as low odds for RG as for AO seems a bit ridiculous to me. Firstly, he has won one of them five times, the other zero. Secondly, RG is like half a year away—a lot can happen* in that space of time in tennis, as history has revealed.

I don't bet, but if I did I'd put money on Nadal at RG, not on Novak in 2016.

 

[user]

William Hill think he is an even bigger favorite - CYGS is 9,00 while 3 out of 4 is 4,00.

Djokovic - 3/4 = 4,00
Nadal - just RG = 4,00

Unreasonable.

 

[Inanimate_object]

Starting odds are not meant to be an accurate reflection of value. It's supposed to stimulate action on betting lines. These lines are all subject to change.

 

[Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil]

Djokovic - 3/4 = 4,00
Nadal - just RG = 4,00

Unreasonable.

I don't bet, but if I did I'd put money on Nadal at RG, not on Novak in 2016.

Just checked, Djokovic is 1,91 at the French Open according to William Hill.

 

[Sysyphus]

I don't bet, but if I did I'd put money on Nadal at RG, not on Novak in 2016.

Yeah. Novak is going for a return of 6/5, whereas one gets 7/2 for Nadal.
Although Novak will surely have a great shot again next year, I don't think it's unlikely that Nadal will muster up another strong RG-run.

 

[tennis_pro]

Djokovic won't win more than 2 Slams in 2016. He's emotionally drained after 2015.

 

[helterskelter]

My guess is that they are still the lowest ever, unless someone shows that Federer in 2004-07 had lower.

I don't have access to old odds, but that sounds reasonable to me. At the start of 2004, there was no reason to think that Federer would dominate to the extent that he did. Him finishing firm #1 in 2004 would of course have been conceivable and even likely, but most would have expected "merely" Sampras-esque levels of domination. After all, only one man in 30 years had won three Slams in a year at that point. At the start of both 2006 and 2007, Federer wasn't the favorite for Roland Garros. He was of course at least as firm a favorite for the other three as Djokovic is, but not being favorite for one of them was a bigger deal. (Djokovic is the favorite for Roland Garros 2016. Perhaps Nadal will be favorite again if his form picks up somewhat. Right now, he's not favorite, and he's certainly not firm favorite as he would have been at the start of 2006 and 2007).

The only year in which I can see a case for Federer going into the year with as much chance of the Slam as Djokovic has right now is 2005. And at that point Federer had never made a Roland Garros semi.

 

[helterskelter]

Djokovic won't win more than 2 Slams in 2016. He's emotionally drained after 2015.

In that case, he might as well take the year off. It's not worth getting out of bed for less than three Slams.

 

[Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil]

Djokovic won't win more than 2 Slams in 2016. He's emotionally drained after 2015.

You said he won't win more than 1 a few weeks ago and if he does he is probably doped.
I think he still has motivation, and he hasn't found himself in this situation for the first time. Lesson can be learned from 2011 to 2012.
Winning 2 Slams would be a successful season.

 

[Deleted member 716271]

The reason why Novak is close to as low odds at the French compared to AO despite never having won RG/his AO success is clear to me. There are only 3 or 4 players who really have a shot on clay and 2 with a likely one...the field is much deeper on slow hard court. Of course it's unlikely the field breaks thru on slow HC, but it's virtually impossible on clay.

 

[helterskelter]

Winning 2 Slams would be a successful season.

Novak's now more than 28 and a half. Any match he loses from now on will be interpreted by those who dislike him as evidence of "physical decline." Even a two-Slam season - making 2016 probably his third best season yet - would be cited as evidence that he's past it.

 

[Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil]

Novak's now more than 28 and a half. Any match he loses from now on will be interpreted by those who dislike him as evidence of "physical decline." Even a two-Slam season - making 2016 probably his third best season yet - would be cited as evidence that he's past it.

I know what you mean.
It was magical how much dust was raised when he only lost the round robin match vs Federer, his first loss since August.
If he wins 2 Slams in 2016 and people still claim he is past it, just think about how amazing he is when on a high level.

 

[Sysyphus]

I don't have access to old odds, but that sounds reasonable to me. At the start of 2004, there was no reason to think that Federer would dominate to the extent that he did. Him finishing firm #1 in 2004 would of course have been conceivable and even likely, but most would have expected "merely" Sampras-esque levels of domination. After all, only one man in 30 years had won three Slams in a year at that point. At the start of both 2006 and 2007, Federer wasn't the favorite for Roland Garros. He was of course at least as firm a favorite for the other three as Djokovic is, but not being favorite for one of them was a bigger deal. (Djokovic is the favorite for Roland Garros 2016. Perhaps Nadal will be favorite again if his form picks up somewhat. Right now, he's not favorite, and he's certainly not firm favorite as he would have been at the start of 2006 and 2007).

The only year in which I can see a case for Federer going into the year with as much chance of the Slam as Djokovic has right now is 2005. And at that point Federer had never made a Roland Garros semi.

A Fed CYGS was held as pretty plausible before both the '05 and '06 seasons. Nadal had what looked to be a serious foot-injury at the tail-end of 2005, and so it wasn't obvious that he'd step up to be as consistent a challenger as he was. Tennis-X wrote about Fed before '06: "Is it possible to have more Slam titles than match losses during a season? Sounds crazy, but yeah...", and also picked him for RG before that season. The inevitability of Nadal's clay reign is something that seems more given in hindsight I think.

 

[Deleted member 688153]

Right now is a terrible time to bet on Djokovic, in other words.

Spoiler

All-in on Dimitrov.

 

[helterskelter]

A Fed CYGS was held as pretty plausible before both the '05 and '06 seasons. Nadal had what looked to be a serious foot-injury at the tail-end of 2005, and so it wasn't obvious that he'd step up to be as consistent a challenger as he was. Tennis-X wrote about Fed before '06: "Is it possible to have more Slam titles than match losses during a season? Sounds crazy, but yeah...", and also picked him for RG before that season. The inevitability of Nadal's clay reign is something that seems more given in hindsight I think.

Yes, I guess that's true about 2006. And Nadal had a pretty poor second half of the season in 2006, so perhaps 2007 too. That said, even if Federer and Nadal were joint favorites for RG in those years, I still think that Nadal was an obviously bigger obstacle then than now.

Before 2005, I remember a few discussions of whether Federer could possibly maintain his 2004 form, which was as I mentioned in the previous post, pretty much unprecedented at that point.

 

[Djokovic2011]

Right now is a terrible time to bet on Djokovic, in other words.

Spoiler

All-in on Dimitrov.

Well, he's apparently got his spark back now so that might be money well spent!

 

[Dave1982]

Whilst odds might seem short would you honestly argue against them by any great length....based on track record and current form they are about right!

CYGS one is a bit low as in reality it should be calculated in a similar way to any other multi-bet which based on quoted odds should have it at around the $21 mark.

Djokovic deserves to be overwhelming favorite for all tournaments he enters and based on current form is going to be at short odds with the betting agencies...obviously under or around $2 seems incredibly short when you consider he has to win 7 matches however I guess that's just a reflection of how dominant he is at the minute!

Favorites do however get beaten from time to time though...even those at incredibly short odds....actually that is exactly how betting agencies generate most of their profits, favorites being beat!

 

[Deleted member 688153]

Whilst odds might seem short would you honestly argue against them by any great length....based on track record and current form they are about right!

CYGS one is a bit low as in reality it should be calculated in a similar way to any other multi-bet which based on quoted odds should have it at around the $21 mark.

Djokovic deserves to be overwhelming favorite for all tournaments he enters and based on current form is going to be at short odds with the betting agencies...obviously under or around $2 seems incredibly short when you consider he has to win 7 matches however I guess that's just a reflection of how dominant he is at the minute!

Favorites do however get beaten from time to time though...even those at incredibly short odds....actually that is exactly how betting agencies generate most of their profits, favorites being beat!

Precisely. These odds are quite fair.
But certainly not good value for any actual betting IMO.

 

[cockneyDjoker]

Easy money, Djokovic is winning it all next year.

 

[Dave1982]

Precisely. These odds are quite fair.
But certainly not good value for any actual betting IMO.

No absolutely not....no way I'd be taking any of those odds this far out from any of the tournaments!

Do actually enjoy betting on tennis tournaments though....key is to build a bank in the early rounds via including the favorites in a multi so as that you can increase the bet in later rounds when H2H odds are a bit more attractive....needless to say an early round upset can bring things undone pretty quickly.

And remember kids....always gamble responsibly!

 

[anubis]

Djokovic is going to have the toughest year of his life next year.

He's basically starting off 2016 in a pure defensive mode: he's got to defend all of his points from 2015. This means that at best, he won't win hardly any more points next year. At worst, he will only lose points.

Since he made the finals on almost every tournament he played, any time he doesn't make a final, he loses a ton of points.

Any time he decides to skip a tournament that he participated in 2015, he loses a ton of points.

Any tournament he doesn't win next year, he loses a ton of points.

It's going to be the most stressful year of his life, and everyone's going to be gunning for him. With so much to lose, expect gamesmanship to go up. People will push him to his limits, knowing he's got so much on the line.

There is absolutely zero chance he will win all of the same tournaments next year as he did this year. 100% guarantee that he's going to finish lower next year. May not drop from #1, but the gap will be significantly narrowed.

 

[Captain Grant]

Djokovic won't win more than 2 Slams in 2016. He's emotionally drained after 2015.

I would be surprised if Djokovic will not win CYGS. My prediction is he wins all important titles(including Olympics) except Cincy.

 

[dadadas]

Djokovic is going to have the toughest year of his life next year.

He's basically starting off 2016 in a pure defensive mode: he's got to defend all of his points from 2015. This means that at best, he won't win hardly any more points next year. At worst, he will only lose points.

Since he made the finals on almost every tournament he played, any time he doesn't make a final, he loses a ton of points.

Any time he decides to skip a tournament that he participated in 2015, he loses a ton of points.

Any tournament he doesn't win next year, he loses a ton of points.

It's going to be the most stressful year of his life, and everyone's going to be gunning for him. With so much to lose, expect gamesmanship to go up. People will push him to his limits, knowing he's got so much on the line.

There is absolutely zero chance he will win all of the same tournaments next year as he did this year. 100% guarantee that he's going to finish lower next year. May not drop from #1, but the gap will be significantly narrowed.

The gap between no1 and no2 is still a huge gap though, he could lose 3 to 4 Masters and would still be able to be number 1.

 

[NoleFam]

Djokovic is going to have the toughest year of his life next year.

He's basically starting off 2016 in a pure defensive mode: he's got to defend all of his points from 2015. This means that at best, he won't win hardly any more points next year. At worst, he will only lose points.

Since he made the finals on almost every tournament he played, any time he doesn't make a final, he loses a ton of points.

Any time he decides to skip a tournament that he participated in 2015, he loses a ton of points.

Any tournament he doesn't win next year, he loses a ton of points.

It's going to be the most stressful year of his life, and everyone's going to be gunning for him. With so much to lose, expect gamesmanship to go up. People will push him to his limits, knowing he's got so much on the line.

There is absolutely zero chance he will win all of the same tournaments next year as he did this year. 100% guarantee that he's going to finish lower next year. May not drop from #1, but the gap will be significantly narrowed.

I disagree. Yes he will have a ton of points to defend but he's been in this position before. 2012. So he's been there and done that and knows more of what to expect. Sure he won more points this year but still in the same situation. He also defended his points incredibly well this year and I disagree that he will be stressed about not defending every tournament. He win not win as much next year because it's virtually impossible but he's in a good position to continue his dominance.

 

[PeterHo]

Djokovic is going to have the toughest year of his life next year.

He's basically starting off 2016 in a pure defensive mode: he's got to defend all of his points from 2015. This means that at best, he won't win hardly any more points next year. At worst, he will only lose points.

Since he made the finals on almost every tournament he played, any time he doesn't make a final, he loses a ton of points.

Any time he decides to skip a tournament that he participated in 2015, he loses a ton of points.

Any tournament he doesn't win next year, he loses a ton of points.

It's going to be the most stressful year of his life, and everyone's going to be gunning for him. With so much to lose, expect gamesmanship to go up. People will push him to his limits, knowing he's got so much on the line.

There is absolutely zero chance he will win all of the same tournaments next year as he did this year. 100% guarantee that he's going to finish lower next year. May not drop from #1, but the gap will be significantly narrowed.

I don't think Nole will feel the pressure of defending tournaments.

He's leading by a massive 8000 points!

A slam is worth 2000 points. He's not even going to feel any pressure there since there's 0 chance to lose the no.1 ranking in any tournament. Until somebody gets to within 2000 points, no pressure in terms of losing the no.1 ranking.

I think instead he might feel too relaxed and complacent, and maybe overconfident thinking he would still win against everybody while not playing his best, given the year he's had.

 

[Shaolin]

Djokovic is going to have the toughest year of his life next year.

He's basically starting off 2016 in a pure defensive mode: he's got to defend all of his points from 2015. This means that at best, he won't win hardly any more points next year. At worst, he will only lose points.

Since he made the finals on almost every tournament he played, any time he doesn't make a final, he loses a ton of points.

Any time he decides to skip a tournament that he participated in 2015, he loses a ton of points.

Any tournament he doesn't win next year, he loses a ton of points.

It's going to be the most stressful year of his life, and everyone's going to be gunning for him. With so much to lose, expect gamesmanship to go up. People will push him to his limits, knowing he's got so much on the line.

There is absolutely zero chance he will win all of the same tournaments next year as he did this year. 100% guarantee that he's going to finish lower next year. May not drop from #1, but the gap will be significantly narrowed.

Not that I'm happy about it but ****** is gonna mow down the field next year, points to defend or not.

Hopefully LjubiGoat can scheme something up and or Murray gets his act together but I don't know how much faith I have in that.

 

[helterskelter]

Defending points is not a factor when talking about rankings over the course of a whole year. By definition, every player has to defend all their points in such a period. Defending points is relevant when talking about a short period of time, most notably the tail end of the year but also any other sub-annual period.

 

[Deleted member 716271]

The best and only shot to match this for aggregate pre-season odds, as someone previously said, would be Fed entering 2005, coming off a 3 slam season in 2004. Entering 2007 coming off of 2006 wouldn't be good enough as by that point, Roger would be a sizeable underdog to Nadal at RG.

 

[Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil]

Djokovic is going to have the toughest year of his life next year.

He's basically starting off 2016 in a pure defensive mode: he's got to defend all of his points from 2015. This means that at best, he won't win hardly any more points next year. At worst, he will only lose points.

Since he made the finals on almost every tournament he played, any time he doesn't make a final, he loses a ton of points.

Any time he decides to skip a tournament that he participated in 2015, he loses a ton of points.

Any tournament he doesn't win next year, he loses a ton of points.

It's going to be the most stressful year of his life, and everyone's going to be gunning for him. With so much to lose, expect gamesmanship to go up. People will push him to his limits, knowing he's got so much on the line.

There is absolutely zero chance he will win all of the same tournaments next year as he did this year. 100% guarantee that he's going to finish lower next year. May not drop from #1, but the gap will be significantly narrowed.

The gap is so big that even if he loses a bigger amount of points he will still probably find himself on top of the list, unless Murray performs something crazy and beats him at every tournament, like Novak did to Rafa in 2011.

 

[xFedal]

Djokovic won't win more than 2 Slams in 2016. He's emotionally drained after 2015.

12 Slams at age 29 not bad.

 

[MichaelNadal]

As they should be, who else is on tour?

 

[Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil]

As they should be, who else is on tour?

Well don't you think that odds on him winning his pet Slam being almost the same as the ones on him winning his cursed Slam is a bit exaggerating? And those CYGS odds seem pretty low to me, considering it hasn't been done in 46 years and so many laugh when a person mentions the possibility of Djokovic doing it.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Well don't you think that odds on him winning his pet Slam being almost the same as the ones on him winning his cursed Slam is a bit exaggerating? And those CYGS odds seem pretty low to me, considering it hasn't been done in 46 years and so many laugh when a person mentions the possibility of Djokovic doing it.

I just look at it in basic terms, who is the overwhelming favorite? He is, for every tournament, no matter if it's on clay or ice, by far right now.

 

[xFedal]

As they should be, who else is on tour?

How can you forget about the Koc? Out of all people you forgot about the king

 

[Dave1982]

Djokovic is going to have the toughest year of his life next year.

He's basically starting off 2016 in a pure defensive mode: he's got to defend all of his points from 2015. This means that at best, he won't win hardly any more points next year. At worst, he will only lose points.

Since he made the finals on almost every tournament he played, any time he doesn't make a final, he loses a ton of points.

Any time he decides to skip a tournament that he participated in 2015, he loses a ton of points.

Any tournament he doesn't win next year, he loses a ton of points.

It's going to be the most stressful year of his life, and everyone's going to be gunning for him. With so much to lose, expect gamesmanship to go up. People will push him to his limits, knowing he's got so much on the line.

There is absolutely zero chance he will win all of the same tournaments next year as he did this year. 100% guarantee that he's going to finish lower next year. May not drop from #1, but the gap will be significantly narrowed.

Really not an issue.....sure he has a ton to defend but that doesn't automatically put him in a "defensive mode". I fully expect him to finish 2016 as Year end number 1 and to have for the most part not really been challenged for the top position all season....I don't however expect him to finish season with the same or a larger haul of points he accumulated in 2016, that was simply ridiculous!

Ultimately every player on tour has points to defend....some just more than others....over course of the season I can see the gap between him and others being somewhat elastic in that he will concede points to them at some tournaments but will make them up at others due to their early exits.