I didn't catch the first few games, but saw the rest with interest. A couple of things
- you're overstating how "poor" Thiem served. He served at what can be expected. Given how much pressure Djoko puts on his 2nd, it's a rather good stat to be able to keep his average first serve percentage (1 % down isn't really a difference). You can't expect him to serve in the 70's - certainly not against Djoko.
- yes, Djoko's at his peak, but that doesn't mean that he plays every match at his peak. He didn't serve this many DF's since 2010 some stat showed. He made routine errors of the forehand and sometimes off the backhand time and time again from good positions. Some of that could be do to the heaviness of the Thiem ball, but certainly not all. I mean in some games, he made 3-4 forehands longs, when trying to go down the line for it. Is that peak Djoko to you? Not to me.
- I would also put a pause a bit with being that impressed with Thiem's number against Djoko's first serve. It ain't finding the spots as well as it sometimes does right now and he got treatment for his back in the Berdych match (where all time pigeon Birdman won 31 % of Djoko's 1st serve and is now 0-20 in their HC meetings). Sure, it's a GREAT stat if he can repeat it. But I think on Tuesday, it had a lot to do with Djoko as well.
- what Djoko did well in this match was his ROS on Thiem's second and his ability to boggle down, when down BP and aside from the DF, not hand Thiem an easy break on those despite all the regulation errors he gave in the rest of the match.
- what Thiem did great was to get to all those BP's, hang with Djoko in the rallies, not be afraid to go big and not losing his spirits despite not converting a single BP on his own.
Overall, I also see very good signs, but not quite the ones you're seeing.
In Acapulco, Thiem served at 74%, 73%, and 78% in the final with 22 aces and 1 DF. That ace count is not happening against Djokovic, but the higher serve percentage in a big match is very possible for Thiem. Thiem has been in a bit of a serving slump since and so 64% was above average for what he's been doing in IW and Miami (best match was 67%.)
I've updated my match notes that were posted in another thread to include the speed of serve on the Djokovic DFs. You can blame the DFs on a supposed back issue that was brewing, but Djokovic only had 1 DF against Berdych. I'll admit that the Djokovic serve might be down a bit in speed possibly for some reason and certainly Berdcyh getting 31% of first serve points against the champ is a bit troubling when Berdy averages 30% on hard courts. Shave 5% off the Thiem number if you like, but even 34% is a very impressive number against a player who usually only allows 26% in 2015 and 24% in 2016. Djokovic averaged 113 mph on first serves and 87 mph on second serves. The speeds of the DFs were 92, 97, 99, 87, 98, 108, 99, 78 and 99 mph. Most of these were from the new deepish 2nd serve that has been getting accolades. It did not do so well under pressure is my take, with an unexpected rash of DFs at the beginning of the match. Djokovic DF'd a break and a match point with this serve. The following also shows how Djokovic served on the break points.
Updated Notes:
On Break points Djokovic served 8 of 15 with a few conservative first serves. On 2nd serve, Djokovic went big early with 107 mph, slow one, 116 mph, a slow one, DF, a slow one, and finally a slow one.
Thiem got 5 of the 8 first serves in play (one an Ace). Thiem got all of the 2nd serve back into play except for one. All of the rallies were longish rallies off these returns except for one where Thiem had the misfortune of attempting to return and volley off of a 116 mph Djokovic 2nd serve.
Set 1:
1st Djoko service 7/7 behind first 0/4 behind 2nd. Multiple deuces. 92 mph DF and 97 mph DF
(Djoko takes advantage of Thiem 2nd serves decisively for easy break.)
2nd Djoko service (3 BPs): (over ten minutes) 99 mph DF gives Thiem 1st BP opp.
1. 120 mph Djoko first. Long rally and Djokovic got the winner
2. Ace
3. Big 107 mph Djokovic 2nd, Defensvie slice floats just wide after long rally
3rd Djoko service:
Deuce game
4th Djoko service: opening 87 mph DF (4th)
4. Thiem goes back on 82 mph 2nd serve return and tries to hit heavy backhand topspin return on , deep
5th Djoko service: (9.5 minute game)
5. Deep forehand return of 119 mph Djoko first.
6. 86 mph Djokovic kick 1st serve to Thiem backhand - Thiem backhand pass seemingly in for the break after longish rally, both players sit down for review, Hawkeye out!
Thiem fist pumps his way to another break opp
7. 90 mph Djokovic kick 1st serve to Thiem backhand - long rally with Djoko forcing issue with down the line forehand that gets the error off defensive slice
Thiem wins longish rally to get another break opp
8. Thiem has misfortune on 116 mph Djokovic 2nd - Djokovic crisply returns aggressive Thiem return and volley (error)
0 for 8 in first set, but nothing overtly wrong except the final tally. Tough play from Djokovic as usual.
Set 2:
6th Djoko service:
Djoko holds from 30 all
(Thiem gives Djoko easy break on his own service.)
7th Djoko service: (Two big winners fuel 15-40 opp) at 15 all 88 mph first serve miss, then 98 mph DF, later 108mph DF (6th)
9. Thiem maybe doesn't do enough with 2nd serve return - Djoko eventually works him over with two excellent forehands
10. 121 mph first serve gets error on Thiem chip return
8th Djoko service:
impressive Thiem aggressions and foot work get 15-30, then 30-40
11. Djoko goes big on 2nd and just long. 99 mph DF (7th) to give up the break
(Horrible Thiem service game and Djoko breaks with ease.)
9th Djoko service: 78 mph DF
Thiem's lacklust play continues and easy hold.
Final Djoko service: (over 14 minutes)
Thiem saves first MP with nice forehand return of first and some aggression gets UE
Thiem gets upperhand with nice aggression off conservative 110 mph Djoko first serve. BP
12. Big Djoko serve down T gets error from Thiem forehand
Djoko DFs match point at 99 mph. (9th)
Thiem chip backhand returns 119 mph Djoko first and then huge cross forehand to save 3rd MP
Thiem takes over on 88 mph Djoko 2nd service and quickly forces backhand error with heavy, heavy forehand. BP
13. Thiem with good forehand return of Djokovic conservative 106 mph 1st, but Djoko eventually gets upper hand in rally and hits forceful two hander with great depth and Thiem UE
Thiem returns 119 mph Djoko first with deep top spin backhand and eventually takes over the point with his backhand to for UE. BP
14. Thiem with nice, deep aggressive retun of 88 mph Djoko 2nd. Coughs up bad UE on runaround forehand while in control of point.
(First run around was fine with good footwork, the 2nd one was error and those feet didn't take as many adjustment steps.) A bad miss.
Thiem with nice deep top spin backhand return of 122 mph Djoko first and impressively takes over point to get another UE for BP.
15. Very nice deep forehand return of wide Djokovic 119 mph first serve. Thiem eventually tries to run around and go down the line and just misses deep.
Thiem nearly gets another BP off 119 mph Djokovic serve. Dominating with forehand and just misses wide with forehand (might have been in, but Thiem out of challenges, a big mistake on his part.)
