2016 predictions (23 and under)

[tacou]

What do you think next season holds for the following players?

Add your own to the list if you feel I've missed anyone important. Some I left out were Kudla, Pouille, Dzumhur and Bhambri.

#81 Alexander Zverev (18 years) I think a good year for him would be reaching Top 50. He should do it through successful runs at challengers and qualifying for a few main tour events; he still needs to develop physically before taking on a full ATP season, but the tools to win smaller events are already there. He could be making big moves as soon as 2017 if he utilizes this upcoming season correctly.

#78 Thanasi Kokkinakis (19 years) Needs to boost his ranking to Top 32 asap. Only way to do this by season's end is reaching a few 250 semis/finals and taking at least a couple matches at the 1000 level. I think he might be two years or more away from making noise, though. '16 will be mediocre.

#51 Chung Hyeon (19 years) Like Zverev, Hyeon should continue playing challengers to boost his ranking while improving stamina and fitness during off weeks. He should be Top 50 by the end of January, though, so his 1-2 career record at majors could very well improve to 3-6 or so, setting him up with invaluable experience for 2017 and beyond.

#44 Borna Coric (19 years) The one everyone talks about. Hate to sound like a broken record, but his fitness needs to improve a lot before he is to be taken seriously, especially considering the modern RUN game he plays. He should be seeded in the 26-32 region for RG, ideally, meaning some early round wins in Melbourne, Indian Wells, Miami, and the clay masters are a must. He was a combined 2-4 at those events last year. Has to be more like 6-4 if he wants to gather momentum going into the North American summer hard court season.

#41 Jiri Vesely (22 years) Honestly do not know much about this kid. I've seen him play 2-3 times, max. Anyone care to fill me in?

#30 Nick Kyrgios (20 years) He's made QF appearances at one major each of the past two years and was 8-6 at the other six slams in '14 and '15. His 6-6 mark at masters the last 24 months has been much less inspiring. In order to rack up more big wins at the majors, Nick is going to need to get some more growth opportunities at the masters. Honestly, I see a down year for this player, though I think he has a bright future and might snag his maiden title pre-Wimbledon or in Asia, if healthy.

#26 Jack Sock (23 years) I see more consistent progress for Jack in 2016 but nothing spectacular. He might win another 250 and could finish as high as No. 18, but I think he'll be hard pressed to match his R16 showing at the French at another major. He won at least one match at 6 out of 8 master events played in 2015, a promising sign as far as consistency goes.

#20 Dominic Thiem (22 years) I think Dominic has about maxed out his playing potential, but I think more experience and better conditioning could allow him to get into the world Top 16. Maybe not until 2017.

#18 Bernard Tomic (23 years) Had a sneaky good year, finishing in the Top 20. I'm sure most of us have written him off entirely at one point or another, but he seems to be progressing. Not sure if it's possible, but a Top 16 seed would be good for him in Australia. If he can defend his R16 points in Melbourne he'll be in good shape to maintain and improve on his ranking throughout the season. Top 10 finish seems generous, but it's a more than reasonable target.

 

[Lord Anomander]

Thiem has some things I miss when looking at Kyrgios or Tomic. He is a worker. He does pretty solid analyses of his matches and knows his weaknesses. He is far from being top 10, but all of these guys are. However, he had a terrible start coming into the season with a bad preparation because of military service and an illness. Now if he manages to get better results at the AO and some masters he will win much more points than he did in 2015. He profited a lot from winning three 250s, and he cannot participate in all of them due to the olympic games. Nevertheless, he should be able to perform well on clay when it matters (masters, FO).

I don't see him near his potential because he underperformed at most important tournaments. Experience will help him to do better. He doesn't have the same talent as Kyrgios, but a better attitude which is worth a lot. I doubt Kyrgios will increase his position much, because he lives for big matches, but ultimately loses too many unimportant ones.

Edit: Tomic is so hard to predict. Could be anything from Top 10 to Top 40.

 

[Nachiket Nolefam]

Looking forward to progress of Tomic. He has great forehand, first serve can be hit hard. He has overall good game but don't see him winning grand slam with that game. I would like him to be more consistent and get to top 10-15 and challenge top guys day to day.

Thiem, I don't know what to look for. I have not seen huge potential. He may get to top 15 or may even go down the rankings.

Sock has big game. He can raise in the ranking for sure. His game isn't complete and didn't even threaten top 4 guys yet.

Kyrgios will not be no1 contender, at least for few years. He can be streaky like Becker and win Wimbledon or USOpen. He has beaten Federer and Nadal. He must get to top 20 at least but should get to much more.

Rest have to see more.

 

[Lord Anomander]

Thiem, I don't know what to look for. I have not seen huge potential. He may get to top 15 or may even go down the rankings.

Did you see Umag? He played some really great matches there (E.g., against Monfils). However, he didn't do well on the bigger stage. That's why a lot of people underestimate his potential. I think he can improve at least to a top 10 player but it might take another year or two. Especially on clay he is better than the other youngsters.

 

[mavsman149]

What do you think next season holds for the following players?

Add your own to the list if you feel I've missed anyone important. Some I left out were Kudla, Pouille, Dzumhur and Bhambria.

#81 Alexander Zverev (18 years) I think a good year for him would be reaching Top 50. He should do it through successful runs at challengers and qualifying for a few main tour events; he still needs to develop physically before taking on a full ATP season, but the tools to win smaller events are already there. He could be making big moves as soon as 2017 if he utilizes this upcoming season correctly.

#78 Thanasi Kokkinakis (19 years) Needs to boost his ranking to Top 32 asap. Only way to do this by season's end is reaching a few 250 semis/finals and taking at least a couple matches at the 1000 level. I think he might be two years or more away from making noise, though. '16 will be mediocre.

#51 Chung Hyeon (19 years) Like Zverev, Hyeon should continue playing challengers to boost his ranking while improving stamina and fitness during off weeks. He should be Top 50 by the end of January, though, so his 1-2 career record at majors could very well improve to 3-6 or so, setting him up with invaluable experience for 2017 and beyond.

#44 Borna Coric (19 years) The one everyone talks about. Hate to sound like a broken record, but his fitness needs to improve a lot before he is to be taken seriously, especially considering the modern RUN game he plays. He should be seeded in the 26-32 region for RG, ideally, meaning some early round wins in Melbourne, Indian Wells, Miami, and the clay masters are a must. He was a combined 2-4 at those events last year. Has to be more like 6-4 if he wants to gather momentum going into the North American summer hard court season.

#41 Jiri Vesely (22 years) Honestly do not know much about this kid. I've seen him play 2-3 times, max. Anyone care to fill me in?

#30 Nick Kyrgios (20 years) He's made QF appearances at one major each of the past two years and was 8-6 at the other six slams in '14 and '15. His 6-6 mark at masters the last 24 months has been much less inspiring. In order to rack up more big wins at the majors, Nick is going to need to get some more growth opportunities at the masters. Honestly, I see a down year for this player, though I think he has a bright future and might snag his maiden title pre-Wimbledon or in Asia, if healthy.

#26 Jack Sock (23 years) I see more consistent progress for Jack in 2016 but nothing spectacular. He might win another 250 and could finish as high as No. 18, but I think he'll be hard pressed to match his R16 showing at the French at another major. He won at least one match at 6 out of 8 master events played in 2015, a promising sign as far as consistency goes.

#20 Dominic Thiem (22 years) I think Dominic has about maxed out his playing potential, but I think more experience and better conditioning could allow him to get into the world Top 16. Maybe not until 2017.

#18 Bernard Tomic (23 years) Had a sneaky good year, finishing in the Top 20. I'm sure most of us have written him off entirely at one point or another, but he seems to be progressing. Not sure if it's possible, but a Top 16 seed would be good for him in Australia. If he can defend his R16 points in Melbourne he'll be in good shape to maintain and improve on his ranking throughout the season. Top 10 finish seems generous, but it's a more than reasonable target.

Great post! Just one thing to not for Chung, he most likely will be incapable of playing challengers. You need a WC to play challengers if your ranking is top 50.

 

[Nachiket Nolefam]

Did you see Umag? He played some really great matches there (E.g., against Monfils). However, he didn't do well on the bigger stage. That's why a lot of people underestimate his potential. I think he can improve at least to a top 10 player but it might take another year or two. Especially on clay he is better than the other youngsters.

I will see more of him ofcourse in future. What I saw was he was not sure if to attack or defend. He was not returning serve good. Will watch Umag hls.

 

[tacou]

I don't see him near his potential because he underperformed at most important tournaments. Experience will help him to do better. He doesn't have the same talent as Kyrgios, but a better attitude which is worth a lot. I doubt Kyrgios will increase his position much, because he lives for big matches, but ultimately loses too many unimportant ones.

Edit: Tomic is so hard to predict. Could be anything from Top 10 to Top 40.

I totally agree. What I meant was, his raw level of play is close to it's full potential. An improved mental game and more match play will allow him to achieve significantly better results, no doubt.
I also agree that Thiem seems like a dedicated sort of player, which I like.

 

[tacou]

Great post! Just one thing to not for Chung, he most likely will be incapable of playing challengers. You need a WC to play challengers if your ranking is top 50.

Oh, right you are. That's unfortunate because he's done very well at that level and I think he could benefit from experiencing more match wins. But he's done well to get his ranking so high, so he'll need to start winning some early rounds at the 250 and 500 levels ASAP.

 

[tacou]

Sock has big game. He can raise in the ranking for sure. His game isn't complete and didn't even threaten top 4 guys yet.

I agree Sock has some nice potential and hasn't fully developed his game. But I predict he will be a player of gradual progress who will start reaching R16 and QF at slams with some consistency at age 25-26.

 

[mistik]

Still have difficulty to see how this field of players produce a great champion.Borna Coric is probably the most likely.

 

[tacou]

2015 Tour records
Zverev 14-17
Kokkiankis 13-19
Hyeon 12-10
Coric 26-28
Kyrios 24-19
Sock 35-18
Tomic 40-27

Tomic had 40 wins, Sock won 66% of his matches, and Coric played an impressive 54 matches.

 

[Deleted member 733170]

I think Pouille should still be monitored. On the back of him taking Monfils to 5 sets at the Aussie and a tough fought match with Federer in Bercy last year, I thought he maybe going places.

None of these guys appear to really finding their groove, but I hope, if nothing else, they pressure the generation immediately ahead of them.

 

[tennis_pro]

2015 Tour records
Zverev 14-17
Kokkiankis 13-19
Hyeon 12-10
Coric 26-28
Kyrios 24-19
Sock 35-18
Tomic 40-27

Tomic had 40 wins, Sock won 66% of his matches, and Coric played an impressive 54 matches.

Yes good stuff and he somehow managed to lose 28 times in one season.

 

[tacou]

Yes good stuff and he somehow managed to lose 28 times in one season.

bahah yes, he was sub .500
But the fact that he played in 28 tour events at his age is an accomplishment of sorts, and he essentially went 1-1 at every tournament.
Not sure how many wild cards he received, but that's a pretty quality effort for a teenager.
Like I said, to continue his improvements he should have closer to a 1.75- or 2-to-1 win ratio. Not sure if he's ready to make that leap or if he might have a slump season.

 

[Aussie Darcy]

Thiem has some things I miss when looking at Kyrgios or Tomic. He is a worker. He does pretty solid analyses of his matches and knows his weaknesses. He is far from being top 10, but all of these guys are. However, he had a terrible start coming into the season with a bad preparation because of military service and an illness. Now if he manages to get better results at the AO and some masters he will win much more points than he did in 2015. He profited a lot from winning three 250s, and he cannot participate in all of them due to the olympic games. Nevertheless, he should be able to perform well on clay when it matters (masters, FO).

I don't see him near his potential because he underperformed at most important tournaments. Experience will help him to do better. He doesn't have the same talent as Kyrgios, but a better attitude which is worth a lot. I doubt Kyrgios will increase his position much, because he lives for big matches, but ultimately loses too many unimportant ones.

Edit: Tomic is so hard to predict. Could be anything from Top 10 to Top 40.

Good analysis but incorrect on Tomic. He knows his weakness is his running for balls and he worked on that towards the end of the year and it paid off in Shanghai against top 10 player Ferrer and Gasquet who was outside the top 10 but now is 9th.
Also Thiem has only one top 10 win which isn't promising if he's to be top 10 next year. Tomic and Kyrgios have quite a few already.
After the year Tomic has I wouldn't call him unpredictable. He's been very consistent.

 

[tacou]

After the year Tomic has I wouldn't call him unpredictable. He's been very consistent.

Yes, Tomic really had a solid year in 2015. He did have a bad clay season, going 2-6 and blow a 2 set lead and match points against Kokkinakis at Roland Garros.
The rest of his year was very consistent. He thinks Top 10 is possible next year and I agree.

 

[Aussie Darcy]

Yes, Tomic really had a solid year in 2015. He did have a bad clay season, going 2-6 and blow a 2 set lead and match points against Kokkinakis at Roland Garros.
The rest of his year was very consistent. He thinks Top 10 is possible next year and I agree.

Oh he's shockingly awful at clay (and that's coming from a big fan of his). I don't know why he played as many clay tournaments as he did, I posted numerous times that he should lay off them. But I guess you can't ignore the surface, you have to improve if you're to be top 10!

 

[tacou]

Oh he's shockingly awful at clay (and that's coming from a big fan of his). I don't know why he played as many clay tournaments as he did, I posted numerous times that he should lay off them. But I guess you can't ignore the surface, you have to improve if you're to be top 10!

Yep got to play at this age, but you're right, if he's playing six tournaments he better manage AT LEAST five-six wins next season

 

[Aussie Darcy]

Yep got to play at this age, but you're right, if he's playing six tournaments he better manage AT LEAST five-six wins next season

I remember posting back in April/May saying for him to just play the clay masters and the French. Even if he'll be seeded at those events, it's no guarantee he'll win back to back matches. He can lose to any player on clay even if they're ranked outside the top 200!

It would be nice if the ATP tour put some grass tournaments on during the clay tournaments. What I mean is that in July we see hard courts in the same week as clay courts. So why not diversify and put grass during clay? In case that doesn't make sense this is some further explanation.

The week of 20th July we had Bastad (Clay), Umag (Clay), Bogota (Hard).
The week of 27th July we had Hamburg (Clay), Gstaad (Clay), Atlanta (Hard).

But in May it's all clay!
The week of 18th May we had Nice (Clay) and Geneva (Clay).

We only get a few grass tournaments in June and one in July and that's all yet clay gets some in February, all of April, all of May, some in July and one in August. This gives clay players a great chance at getting points (Thiem) but is a disadvantage for those who might prefer grass!

I think it'd be good if they put one grass tournament in May. Not during a masters or ATP500, just in a week like the 18th May where it's just ATP250. That way players who are good on grass get to play more on their surface.
Clay tournaments- 22
Grass tournaments- 7

Not really fair is it?

 

[Shaolin]

You forgot to list Rublev. He's making moves next year mark my words.

 

[JRAJ1988]

Tiafoe, that American kid, I check the Live Rankings and he's moving up, he's what 17??

 

[tennisfan2015]

What do you think next season holds for the following players?

None of them will make a breakthrough. 2017-2018 yes.

 

[Chadillac]

Boyz to men isnt gonna happen in the era of the 30yr old big 5.

A tribute to the future journeymen you mentioned

 

[stringertom]

Taylor Harry Fritz climbed 973 spots in 2015. He's at #176 right now and I expect he's capable of getting well inside top 100 before he defends the bulk of his points next summer and fall. Top 50 is not out of the quest.

 

[Lord Anomander]

2015 Tour records
Zverev 14-17
Kokkiankis 13-19
Hyeon 12-10
Coric 26-28
Kyrios 24-19
Sock 35-18
Tomic 40-27

Tomic had 40 wins, Sock won 66% of his matches, and Coric played an impressive 54 matches.

For the sake of completeness: Thiem is 37-29. However, he is 15-12 against higher ranked opponents (he was 15-7 before the US Open, which is remarkably good, but then lost 5 in a row against Anderson (twice), Gasquet, Isner and F. Lopez (despite his general good record against him)) and 22 - 17 against lower ranked. In comparison, Tomic is only 12-12 against higher ranked opponents (and some of them were out of Top 30, because of Tomic' low ranking at the beginning of the season, same goes for Thiem as well, but his lowest higher ranked opponent he beat was Jack Sock at rank 45). Thus, I find it quite promising what Dominic showed, even though Kyrgios has shown more potential against top 10 players in general. Nevertheless, Kyrgios' bad attitude will be a huge obstacle in his future career, in my opinion. Sometimes it can be handy to not have any respect, but in contrary it is important to show some so you don't have the mental attitude "I'm going to beat him anyways", which can backfire.

Good analysis but incorrect on Tomic. He knows his weakness is his running for balls and he worked on that towards the end of the year and it paid off in Shanghai against top 10 player Ferrer and Gasquet who was outside the top 10 but now is 9th.
Also Thiem has only one top 10 win which isn't promising if he's to be top 10 next year. Tomic and Kyrgios have quite a few already.
After the year Tomic has I wouldn't call him unpredictable. He's been very consistent.

True, I must confess that I haven't watched too many matches of Tomic. Usually only those against Djokovic. Big kudos to him regarding the match in Shanghai against Nole. He played a fantastic first set.

Oh he's shockingly awful at clay (and that's coming from a big fan of his). I don't know why he played as many clay tournaments as he did, I posted numerous times that he should lay off them. But I guess you can't ignore the surface, you have to improve if you're to be top 10!

Indeed, it's definitely an advantage if you're good on clay and hard courts. Thiem is quite terrible on grass - might be due to lacking experience -, his game does not fit the surface too well. He did a good job in Wimbledon though (lost a very close match to Almagro, which was quite annoying) and had a close encounter with Nishikori in Halle. So there is some process. He struggles with surface changes, so I'm excited to see if he can adjust faster in the future. So, Tomic should try to improve his game on clay, because it really matters (4 masters + 1 slam + many smaller tournaments) compared to grass where only a slam and 2 500 tournaments are played.

I can't say many good things about Zverev although he is very promising. He appears to be very arrogant and spoiled. I've read some terrible things about him when he played in Vienna a year ago. He showed some airs and graces. But he is far for his age. Kokkinakis and Hyeon on the other hand seem to be nice guys.

For once I enjoy having a thread that is not about Djokovic and/or Federer. It's really making me sick reading the same stuff again and again. Quite shocking that many people do not care about youngsters.

 

[Lord Anomander]

#41 Jiri Vesely (22 years) Honestly do not know much about this kid. I've seen him play 2-3 times, max. Anyone care to fill me in?

I don't know much about him either. From what I've seen he has a good serve, so is in the category of Raonic and Anderson, but is a worse baseliner. However, I don't expect him to raise much higher than top 30 as he seems very limited in his abilities. However, a good serve always helps, so he might be able to leap in rank if he improves his overall game.

 

[SpinToWin]

A breath of fresh air this post

I'll have a closer look when I have more time and add my own thoughts to the mix then

 

[tacou]

None of them will make a breakthrough. 2017-2018 yes.

Yeah I'm not feeling the entire group does better than a single major QF.
Then again, Tomic, Coric, and to a lesser degree Hyeung have set themselves up for some transitional, if not break through, seasons. We shall see.

 

[tacou]

I don't know much about him either. From what I've seen he has a good serve, so is in the category of Raonic and Anderson, but is a worse baseliner. However, I don't expect him to raise much higher than top 30 as he seems very limited in his abilities. However, a good serve always helps, so he might be able to leap in rank if he improves his overall game.

Thanks for the review. I didn't even know he was a big server. I got Tennis TV and TC Anywhere for 2016 so I'll check out as much as the young guns as I can.
Also, maybe this generation needs a new nickname. Like, The Final Hopes.

 

[junior74]

I don't know much about him either. From what I've seen he has a good serve, so is in the category of Raonic and Anderson, but is a worse baseliner. However, I don't expect him to raise much higher than top 30 as he seems very limited in his abilities. However, a good serve always helps, so he might be able to leap in rank if he improves his overall game.

I see potentiale in Vesely. He has a lot of nice wins this season, including winning an ATP250 beating Pouille, Bellucci, Gulbis, Young, Anderson, Mannarino. Not too shabby! Holds a 2-0 H2H against Karlovic in 2015, a stat that would scare even the best
He has a good serve, good consistency and plays aggressive tennis without being careless. The new Berdych?

Very good thread!

 

[tacou]

I see potentiale in Vesely. He has a lot of nice wins this season, including winning an ATP250 beating Pouille, Bellucci, Gulbis, Young, Anderson, Mannarino. Not too shabby! Holds a 2-0 H2H against Karlovic in 2015, a stat that would scare even the best
He has a good serve, good consistency and plays aggressive tennis without being careless. The new Berdych?

Very good thread!

I forgot he won a title this year, and that's a pretty solid lineup to go through. Will definitely catch a few more matches of his in '16

 

[tacou]

It's early, but Kyrgios won Hopman Cup, Coric went to the Chennai final, Thiem made Brisbane semis, and no longer young gun Milos Raonic won Brisbane.
Decent start for the young crowd.

 

[Lord Anomander]

Yep, although we have to wait for the bigger tournaments, because then they will face better ranked opponents in earlier rounds. Most of them only beat one top opponent and it's hard to tell whether Murray played at 100% against Kyrgios in the Hopman cup as it doesn't really matter to most players and is rather used to practice (I guess?). Great success so far, but I think it will get tough once you have to face two to three top players in consecutive matches.

I'm excited to see how they fare in the AO, although I don't see any of them reaching the SF and even QF will be a challenge (but we have to see the draw first, maybe one gets lucky and Kyrgios is always playing his best at home).

I hope Coric beats Muller in Sydney, because I want to see how Thiem plays against him.