2016 Shanghai Rolex Masters Final - A. Murray vs. R. Bautista-Agut

Prediction


  • Total voters
    28
  • Poll closed .

The Green Mile

Bionic Poster
A desperate drop shot from RBA, and Murray breaks for 5-1. Andy looking strong. Looking complete. Could still raise his level as well. These random lapses...
 

Red Rick

Talk Tennis Guru
Mini breadstick and a real breadstick is.

'MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNNN
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
Incredible to think that after this, Murray would have won exactly half the amount of slams and half the amount of masters that Djokovic has won, but will be starting to get within striking distance of the big prize.

Kudos to the consistency Andy...you are becoming The Gold Standard.
 

InsideOut900

Hall of Fame
Great tournament from Murray,can't say much more.
Now he is entering foreign territory at Paris and WTF.
The race for #1 is ridiculously tight for both ATP and WTA now.
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
Murray too good today.
Not just today, he's been too good this whole season. 10 finals across all surfaces, played slam finals on all three surfaces, undefeated on grass, undefeated on Asian swing, Olympics GOAT, best clay season of his life...if anyone should dethrone Novak, it should be the fourth member of the big four, imo.
 

TheMusicLover

G.O.A.T.
Missed all of this match, apparently RBA did well during the first set but saw Murray taking over completely as soon as he lost that TB.

Anyways, congrats to Murray - judging on level of play throughout the week, by far the most deserving of this title.
Kudo's to RBA, too. A great week for him!
 

NatF

Bionic Poster
Not just today, he's been too good this whole season. 10 finals across all surfaces, played slam finals on all three surfaces, undefeated on grass, undefeated on Asian swing, Olympics GOAT, best clay season of his life...if anyone should dethrone Novak, it should be the fourth member of the big four, imo.
Olympics GOAT is a bit of a hollow title considering how long it's been considered a top prize but yes he's had a great season. It's not like there's anyone else right now able to challenge so it might as well be Murray :D

He looks fired up, I expect him to put everything in these last few events. Paris will be interesting. It's normally a lock for Djokovic but Murray might have other ideas.
 

Mainad

Bionic Poster
Well, congrats to Andy on his 3rd Shanghai title, 13th Masters title and 41st title (he now ties Stefan Edberg for most titles won in the open era). Amazing to think he won Beijing and Shanghai back to back without dropping a single set!! (It is also the first Masters title he has won without having to face a top 10 player. Little old stats nerd, me).

Congrats also to Bautista Agut for his great run to his first Masters final which he accomplished without dropping a single set too and took the world number #1 player out along the way!

This has proved to be Murray's most successful Asian swing since 2011 when he won 3 titles back to back: Bangkok, Tokyo and Shanghai.

:)
 

TheMusicLover

G.O.A.T.
Well, congrats to Andy on his 3rd Shanghai title, 13th Masters title and 41st title (he now ties Stefan Edberg for most titles won in the open era). Amazing to think he won Beijing and Shanghai back to back without dropping a single set!! (It is also the first Masters title he has won without having to face a top 10 player. Little old stats nerd, me).
Goffin is in fact #10 in the Race... and took care of Monfils, #6. ;)
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
The wind blew on both sides of the court and the conditions were exactly the same for both players. The match went to 5 sets and Djokovic had every chance to win it. He ran out of gas in the 5th set more than Murray did and that's why he lost and Murray won. Nothing to do with any so called advantages or disadvantages from the wind or any other weather conditions. Extremely disappointed that you are still peddling this nonsense. Murray has beaten Djokovic many times on hardcourt, that US Open match was not the only one. He was ready to win it, that's all.
Haha. Djokovic has the more aggressive game. The wind defanged him a bit and Murray is an incredibly crafty player. It was a huge advantage for Murray. I'd say the same thing of the 2015 US Open final. The cool rain delayed final completely favored Djokovic and was doom for Federer. Federer played amazingly well in the slow conditions, but ultimately the better returner prevailed. That match would have been very different on a sunny warm afternoon versus a cool evening.

Any tournament is about the draw as we just saw with RBA who is not the 2nd best player in the tournament. He just got the right draw to go deep at Shanghai. He'd beaten Tsonga several times this year so that was a very winnable match. RBA had played good sets with Djokovic in their last couple major clashes. He played great against Murray, but then the 2nd set happened and reality set in. Conditions and draw are big factors.

I guess people like you say Murray has choked all of these major opportunities away, I'd say he's been one of the most competitive and opportunistic members of the big 4 and has not let many real opportunities slide by. A great champion.:D
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
When was the last time there were only three pages for a Masters final?
With out one of the big 3 its lower because TTW is mainly player fans and not fans of the whole game. Not many from General Pro show up in Pro matches if their favorite is out. Shanghai is in the middle of the night for American fans.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
You are at least right about Murray being a better grass player, which has been true his whole career. I'm not ready to hype his clay-play. His return on hard is a bit higher than on grass, which is true of all players who compete well on all surfaces. But he won almost 91% of his service games on grass this year, and he's been over 90% 6 different years.

His service on hard is horrible in comparison. He doesn't look like a grass player, and maybe in other eras he would not have been, but for sure grass is his best surface.

Hands down...

I'm not convinced about clay though. He did well the last two years, but I think he's better on hard.
His hard court play has been its best starting this Summer in a long time, but its his vulnerability that's cost him on serve. Murray has developed a dominating first serve game on clay the last few years and its made a huge difference. We'll see how he does in 2017 assuming his good form makes it to the clay season. This year Daddyray was still bringing his game back after a bit of time off, but 2015 Murray won 54.7% of his clay court points and was incredible on serve. Murray is the early favorite to win French Open if Djokovic does not get back to Nole slam level.
 

junior74

G.O.A.T.
Deserved title, Murray played well all week :)

Impressed by Bautista Agut as well, his mindset is one of the best on the tour. Nice presence, awesome forehand!
 

Terenigma

G.O.A.T.
Had to leave this morning during the first set but i had no doubt Murray would see this out. Saw the highlights when i got home just now too and looked like he was totally dominant in the second set which is great to see! 41 Titles and another Masters and within 1000 points of Novak this year is insanely good given how good the latter's season has been up untill Wimbledon.

Even if Murray fails to snatch #1 this year, its looking really really good for him to snatch it at some early point next year. Even if its just for a week, ill be happy.
 

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
His hard court play has been its best starting this Summer in a long time, but its his vulnerability that's cost him on serve.
Because of the ATP stats problem I've been slow to look at stats this year, but Tennis Abstract has him with very close to the same % of points as the ATP. I can't check the sums for TA, but let's assume that their numbers are right. That would show that Murray really is winning over 60% of games. His play would reflect that.

I think Murray is very strong on hard this year in spite of his comparatively weak serving.
Murray has developed a dominating first serve game on clay the last few years and its made a huge difference. We'll see how he does in 2017 assuming his good form makes it to the clay season. This year Daddyray was still bringing his game back after a bit of time off, but 2015 Murray won 54.7% of his clay court points and was incredible on serve. Murray is the early favorite to win French Open if Djokovic does not get back to Nole slam level.
Unlike you I look at % of games won on serve as by far the most important stat on serves. Points should be in line with games, and they usually are. I look for a balance of 1st and 2nd stats, and I look at balance of points in number. For Murray's career around 59% of his service points on clay have been on 1st serve. With around 40% of service points on 2nd serve, which is typical for clay, 2nd serve becomes hugely important. Murray is just under 50% for his career on clay for 2nd serve points, which is horrible. It was around 52% this year. If Murray has a chance at a clay slam it is because the decline of Fed and Nadal, mostly Nadal, has left a huge vacuum.

If you look at only 1st serve, Murray is mostly better than Nadal on clay, career and yearly. Now, ask yourself how much sense that makes. Answer: None.

You're looking at the wrong stats. Nadal was over 70% of all serves on 1st serve for ratio for most of his career. That means that 70% of all his serves were 1st serves. So his lower 1st serve % was more potent. For the roughly 30% of 2nd serves he has had to serve he was around 56% or higher, as high as 58.4% in 2008. Around 58% in 2010 and 2012.

You could possibly weight 1st serve in a DR fashion, giving a boost to a player who is serving the same % but higher on 1st serve. But if you're going mainly on 1st serve, that's where I totally disagree with you.

Murray the favorite next year at RG? Only because there is a vacuum on clay right now, which may be filled. Nadal looks finished right now, and he may be, but on one now can touch what he did in his prime. I think clay next year is an open field.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Because of the ATP stats problem I've been slow to look at stats this year, but Tennis Abstract has him with very close to the same % of points as the ATP. I can't check the sums for TA, but let's assume that their numbers are right. That would show that Murray really is winning over 60% of games. His play would reflect that.

I think Murray is very strong on hard this year in spite of his comparatively weak serving.

Unlike you I look at % of games won on serve as by far the most important stat on serves. Points should be in line with games, and they usually are. I look for a balance of 1st and 2nd stats, and I look at balance of points in number. For Murray's career around 59% of his service points on clay have been on 1st serve. With around 40% of service points on 2nd serve, which is typical for clay, 2nd serve becomes hugely important. Murray is just under 50% for his career on clay for 2nd serve points, which is horrible. It was around 52% this year. If Murray has a chance at a clay slam it is because the decline of Fed and Nadal, mostly Nadal, has left a huge vacuum.

If you look at only 1st serve, Murray is mostly better than Nadal on clay, career and yearly. Now, ask yourself how much sense that makes. Answer: None.

You're looking at the wrong stats. Nadal was over 70% of all serves on 1st serve for ratio for most of his career. That means that 70% of all his serves were 1st serves. So his lower 1st serve % was more potent. For the roughly 30% of 2nd serves he has had to serve he was around 56% or higher, as high as 58.4% in 2008. Around 58% in 2010 and 2012.

You could possibly weight 1st serve in a DR fashion, giving a boost to a player who is serving the same % but higher on 1st serve. But if you're going mainly on 1st serve, that's where I totally disagree with you.

Murray the favorite next year at RG? Only because there is a vacuum on clay right now, which may be filled. Nadal looks finished right now, and he may be, but on one now can touch what he did in his prime. I think clay next year is an open field.
Murray is winning 67% of his serve points this year versus 65% for his career, how is his serving comparatively weak?

Murray was not at his best starting the clay season. End of 2016 and 2015 clay are close. Murray won 67.1% of his serve points in 2015 on clay which is higher than any players career average plus he has an excellent return. Nobody in the history of tennis would have beaten Nadal except in the rarest of circumstances at the French Open. Murray and Djokovic in 2015 would have had a chance against Nadal, more than a chance. If Djokovic is not as his best Murray is a clear and strong favorite to win the French Open.

If you look at serve points won Murray was very strong in 2015 (67.1%) and much higher than Nadal's career average of 66.1. You can delude yourself with some complex math, but that is the bottom line and its all from his first serve points won. For my points DRs I actually do use the first serve percentage and first return percentage (what percent of first serves a player gets while receiving.:confused:) Way ahead of you. I then weight based on two factors, one for serve and one for return. The four semifinalist at the 2016 French Open all had very high first serve points won and even stronger in 2015.

I don't think you are far off calling for an open field in clay because many of the younger players have been doing well on clay. I will say Murray's clay return may have declined some from 2015 (still strong). You may be only a year off on your open field declaration.
 

Gary Duane

G.O.A.T.
Murray is winning 67% of his serve points this year versus 65% for his career, how is his serving comparatively weak?
Yikes. I wrote a lot. Would you please quote me in the future?

Murray's serving right now on hard seems to be at a career high. I believe I said that I'm going on stats from TA, and I have a good reason for being a bit concerned about that data because there is a problem. If you at points on service and return and divide by 2, it's not quite right, which is as it should be because the number of points played on serve and return are never equal. But that data suggests that Murray has played more points on serve than on return, and to a degree I've never seen before. The point data has never been as screwed up as it is now on the ATP. Even in 2003 the mistakes on hard apparently were only on points won and not total number of points players.

If you're point is that Murray is having the best season every on hard, I agree. Hands down. Best serving too.
Murray was not at his best starting the clay season. End of 2016 and 2015 clay are close. Murray won 67.1% of his serve points in 2015 on clay which is higher than any players career average plus he has an excellent return. Nobody in the history of tennis would have beaten Nadal except in the rarest of circumstances at the French Open. Murray and Djokovic in 2015 would have had a chance against Nadal, more than a chance. If Djokovic is not as his best Murray is a clear and strong favorite to win the French Open.
As close as Novak came to beating Nadal in the past it is clear that someone playing on a very high level always had a chance to take out even Nadal in one match.

That's different from saying that anyone in the near future is going to come close to the level of peak Nadal.

If you look at serve points won Murray was very strong in 2015 (67.1%) and much higher than Nadal's career average of 66.1. You can delude yourself with some complex math, but that is the bottom line and its all from his first serve points won. For my points DRs I actually do use the first serve percentage and first return percentage (what percent of first serves a player gets while receiving.:confused:) Way ahead of you. I then weight based on two factors, one for serve and one for return. The four semifinalist at the 2016 French Open all had very high first serve points won and even stronger in 2015.

I don't think you are far off calling for an open field in clay because many of the younger players have been doing well on clay. I will say Murray's clay return may have declined some from 2015 (still strong). You may be only a year off on your open field declaration.[/QUOTE]
 
I would have wanted for RBA to win his 1st Masters 1000, but there we go. Nevertheless, Congrats to Murray and his fans, Mainad , Batz etc.

Hopefully, RBA will use this as a springboard for better and brighter Tennis accomplishments for the next 3 yrs
 
Top