2016 USO & 2017 AO : Biggest missed chances Murray?

Tennis_Freak99

Hall of Fame
I feel these were even bigger missed chances than all the slams he has lost to the Big 3. He was the best player in the world during that period and with the Big 3 down and out, everything was for him to take. He won so many tournaments that period EXCEPT slams!

All these years we said that he is unlucky to lose so many slams to Fedalovic but the only time he didn't have them pitted against him, he mugged it up, considering he was in the form of his life.
He is himself to blame for not being considered by many to be an ATG.

Thoughts?
 

zagor

Bionic Poster
By 2017 he was feeling the effects of his run to get #1 and I don't think he would have gotten past Fed at AO.

2016 USO I'm not sure he was getting past Stan even if he beat Nishikori. In general Murray has been quite inconsistent at USO after his 2012 win. He's never a sure bet there no matter the form.
 

Tennis_Freak99

Hall of Fame
By 2017 he was feeling the effects of his run to get #1 and I don't think he would have gotten past Fed at AO.

2016 USO I'm not sure he was getting past Stan even if he beat Nishikori. In general Murray has been quite inconsistent at USO after his 2012 win. He's never a sure bet there no matter the form.
But still, he won almost every thing from Wimby-16 to WTF-16, it's just bizzare. Wawrinka also wasn't playing that good, he definitely could've done something had he not lost to Nishikori
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
Only 2016 USO was a missed opportunity. Not AO 2017. I don't see him beating Federer, Stan AND Nadal to win the whole thing. That's a tougher draw than he ever had to overcome to win a slam. Don't see it happening.
 

Nole_King

Professional
Is this not a proof enough that in any era where he played without the Big-3 he would still not have won 10+ slams.?
 

StrongRule

G.O.A.T.
Only 2016 USO was a missed opportunity. Not AO 2017. I don't see him beating Federer, Stan AND Nadal to win the whole thing. That's a tougher draw than he ever had to overcome to win a slam. Don't see it happening.
He was also not going to win USO 2016. Given how his last 5 slam matches against Djokovic went I can't see him winning the final. (and that's if we assume he even beats Wawrinka in the semifinals)

Some might say Djokovic declined in USO 2016. But he also wasn't GOATing in matches like AO 2015 final or RG 2016 final. Yet Murray eventually collapsed in these matches and couldn't even give a decent fight. So don't see what would change in USO 2016, especially given that we are talking about a version of Murray who got breadsticked by Nishikori.
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
He was also not going to win USO 2016. Given how his last 5 slam matches against Djokovic went I can't see him winning the final. (and that's if we assume he even beats Wawrinka in the semifinals)

Some might say Djokovic declined in USO 2016. But he also wasn't GOATing in matches like AO 2015 final or RG 2016 final. Yet Murray eventually collapsed in these matches and couldn't even give a decent fight. So don't see what would change in USO 2016, especially given that we are talking about a version of Murray who got breadsticked by Nishikori.
Djokovic was not at this best at the 2016 USO. Worse than usual. And fittingly, he lost to his first good opponent in the final.

Murray would beat that Djokovic, but I'm not sure about Stan like you said. Murray, in terms of achievements, is better than Stan, but when they go H2H they're 50/50 in my book. He has a more or less even H2H with Stan.
 

StrongRule

G.O.A.T.
Djokovic was not at this best at the 2016 USO. Worse than usual. And fittingly, he lost to his first good opponent in the final.

Murray would beat that Djokovic, but I'm not sure about Stan like you said. Murray, in terms of achievements, is better than Stan, but when they go H2H they're 50/50 in my book. He has a more or less even H2H with Stan.
Based on what? It took 4 close sets for Wawrinka who has the game and mentality to beat Djokovic in BO5. So how would Murray beat him? Nah, I'm pretty sure he would collapse like he did in all of their last slam meetings. (which included collapsing after 40 minutes against a pretty average Djokovic in RG final). For me it is obvious that Murray's days of beating Djokovic in BO5 were over years ago.

Murray's level before the fall season was not really high anyway. He struggled against Fognini and Johnson at the Olympics, and barely beat a gassed Del Potro in the final. Lost in straight sets to Cilic in Cincinnati. Lost to Nishikori in USO with a breadstick. (and he was going to beat Djokovic with that form?). Only in the fall season Murray showed some level which was not too far from his 2012 form.
 
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StrongRule

G.O.A.T.
Pretty much the way I see it. USO 2016 should have been his, that is a massive lost opportunity. The incredible momentum he was on heading into the USO, it is unfortunate for him that he could not make it there.

AO 2017, the goose was cooked by then, he wasn't winning.
He was breadsticked by Nishikori but would have beaten Wawrinka and Djokovic? (who destroyed him in their last 5 slam meetings. Not beat, destroyed. Murray collapsed after 1-2 sets every time)
 

Hitman

G.O.A.T.
He was breadsticked by Nishikori but would have beaten Wawrinka and Djokovic? (who destroyed him in their last 5 slam meetings. Not beat, destroyed. Murray collapsed after 1-2 sets every time)
The loss to Nishikori is exactly my point, he lost it mentally in that match, to me a lost opportunity. And yes, he would have beaten Wawrinka, he just beat him a few months back at RG on his worst surface, he can outplay him on hard. And Djokovic was in no shape to win, he got to the final because of a sham of a draw that was filled with walkovers and injured players. The moment he met a decent player, he couldn't handle it.
 

StrongRule

G.O.A.T.
The loss to Nishikori is exactly my point, he lost it mentally in that match, to me a lost opportunity. And yes, he would have beaten Wawrinka, he just beat him a few months back at RG on his worst surface, he can outplay him on hard. And Djokovic was in no shape to win, he got to the final because of a sham of a draw that was filled with walkovers and injured players. The moment he met a decent player, he couldn't handle it.
The final was still 4 close sets. And remember, Wawrinka was a tough matchup for him in slams back then. Murray on the other hand was 5-0 down in slam head to head in 2014-2016 and the matches were even close. I'm sure he would find a way to collapse after 1-2 sets once again.

And by the way, Wawrinka is 2-1 up against Murray at the USO, winning their last 2 matches.
 

Sysyphus

Talk Tennis Guru
yes, he would perhaps have had good chances at either one if had decided to build his form curve around the majors.

But he burnt himself into the ground to chase #1, perhaps understandable.
 

Hitman

G.O.A.T.
The final was still 4 close sets. And remember, Wawrinka was a tough matchup for him in slams back then. Murray on the other hand was 5-0 down in slam head to head in 2014-2016 and none of the matches were even close. I'm sure he would find a way to collapse after 1-2 sets once again.
The final was a close 4 sets because Wawrinka was a nervous wreck, he even threw up in the back before the match and said he couldn't control his emotions when he got out there. Djokovic was taking advantage of that, but as soon as Stan started to settle in, it was clear who was winning the match.

And while Wawrinka is a tough match up for Novak, please don't tell me that the Novak that was playing the USO was of the same caliber that played the AO earlier that year, because he wasn't anywhere to close to that world destroyer. Murray was playing very well in that latter part of the 2016 season.

If you think he would find a way to collapse against an out of form Djokovic, you can, I don't agree with that at all. Murray would have loved that shot against Djokovic there, and I still stand by the belief he beats Stan, since he took him out on clay earlier that year. Murray was riding high on momentum and confidence with massive wins in Wimbledon and Olympics.

So, for me, Murray lost a massive chance for a multi slam year in 2016, but he wasn't winning AO 2017, one of Federer, Wawrinka or Nadal would have beaten him.
 

StrongRule

G.O.A.T.
The final was a close 4 sets because Wawrinka was a nervous wreck, he even threw up in the back before the match and said he couldn't control his emotions when he got out there. Djokovic was taking advantage of that, but as soon as Stan started to settle in, it was clear who was winning the match.

And while Wawrinka is a tough match up for Novak, please don't tell me that the Novak that was playing the USO was of the same caliber that played the AO earlier that year, because he wasn't anywhere to close to that world destroyer. Murray was playing very well in that latter part of the 2016 season.

If you think he would find a way to collapse against an out of form Djokovic, you can, I don't agree with that at all. Murray would have loved that shot against Djokovic there, and I still stand by the belief he beats Stan, since he took him out on clay earlier that year. Murray was riding high on momentum and confidence with massive wins in Wimbledon and Olympics.

So, for me, Murray lost a massive chance for a multi slam year in 2016, but he wasn't winning AO 2017, one of Federer, Wawrinka or Nadal would have beaten him.
I'm not making my statement based on AO 2016 alone. Was Djokovic in god mode in RG 2016 final as well? Up there with 2008 Nadal? No, he wasn't. There was no reason to collapse the way Murray did after 1 set. After watching that disaster (combined with USO 2014, AO 2015, RG 2015 which also weren't THAT great from Djokovic. After all, in both AO and RG 2015 Wawrinka played much better against him than Murray did) I will not believe for a moment that a few months later Murray would suddenly beat him in a slam.

And as I already wrote in this thread, Murray was not in great form. He struggled in a few matches at the Olympics, lost to Cilic in Cincinnati in straights, lost to Nishikori at the USO with a breadstick. Only in the fall season he started playing with more confidence.
 

Hitman

G.O.A.T.
I'm not making my statement based on AO 2016 alone. Was Djokovic in god mode in RG 2016 final as well? Up there with 2008 Nadal? No, he wasn't. There was no reason to collapse the way Murray did after 1 set. After watching that disaster (combined with USO 2014, AO 2015, RG 2015 which also weren't THAT great from Djokovic. After all, in both AO and RG 2015 Wawrinka played much better against him than Murray did) I will not believe for a moment that a few months later Murray would suddenly beat him in a slam.

And as I already wrote in this thread, Murray was not in great form. He struggled in a few matches at the Olympics, lost to Cilic in Cincinnati in straights, lost to Nishikori at the USO with a breadstick. Only in the fall season he started playing with more confidence.
Look, it is very simple, I don't agree with you regarding your opinion on Murray. IMO, Murray lost a fantastic chance to win USO 2016, he would have taken out that version of Djokovic who was very vulnerable to a decent player taking him down. RG 2016, Murray was dead on his feet after the first few sets because of all the five set battles he had earlier on, he was even heard screaming at his box saying "My legs are F$%^&£D!" Not a great comparison here, where Murray was fresher.

USO 2014 shouldn't be used against Murray, he was coming back from back issues and wasn't physically ready for a five set war. The first few sets were still of a very high quality, he ran out of gas. I have said here AO 2015 was the only really big stinker Murray threw in at AO final when the opponent was not at their best and RG 2015...Djokovic was simply better on clay than Murray, so no shame in that. But USO is not RG, Murray moves better on HC.

The loss to Cilic in Cincinnati...I think you are being overly harsh on him. Murray had won Queens, Wimbledon and Olympics, he was running on fumes in Cincinnati and still made the final, not sure how that can be used as a negative.
 
The loss to Nishikori is exactly my point, he lost it mentally in that match, to me a lost opportunity. And yes, he would have beaten Wawrinka, he just beat him a few months back at RG on his worst surface, he can outplay him on hard. And Djokovic was in no shape to win, he got to the final because of a sham of a draw that was filled with walkovers and injured players. The moment he met a decent player, he couldn't handle it.
Wawrinka leads their h2h at the USO so it's not that clear cut he would have beaten him
 

StrongRule

G.O.A.T.
Look, it is very simple, I don't agree with you regarding your opinion on Murray. IMO, Murray lost a fantastic chance to win USO 2016, he would have taken out that version of Djokovic who was very vulnerable to a decent player taking him down. RG 2016, Murray was dead on his feet after the first few sets because of all the five set battles he had earlier on, he was even heard screaming at his box saying "My legs are F$%^&£D!" Not a great comparison here, where Murray was fresher.

USO 2014 shouldn't be used against Murray, he was coming back from back issues and wasn't physically ready for a five set war. The first few sets were still of a very high quality, he ran out of gas. I have said here AO 2015 was the only really big stinker Murray threw in at AO final when the opponent was not at their best and RG 2015...Djokovic was simply better on clay than Murray, so no shame in that. But USO is not RG, Murray moves better on HC.

The loss to Cilic in Cincinnati...I think you are being overly harsh on him. Murray had won Queens, Wimbledon and Olympics, he was running on fumes in Cincinnati and still made the final, not sure how that can be used as a negative.
By the way, there is one more thing I forgot to mention: USO is far from being Murray's favorite tournament. He had decent runs in 2008, 2011 and 2012, but in all other years he had an early loss. And as I said two of his early losses there were against Wawrinka. But ok, we disagree on that one, I'll stay with my opinion.

However, in AO 2017 I don't think there can be any debate. Murray was not winning it even if he was fresh. Zverev in that form was still going to challenge him, and an in-form Federer was waiting in the 1/4 finals anyway.
 

Hitman

G.O.A.T.
Wawrinka leads their h2h at the USO so it's not that clear cut he would have beaten him
Considering their form at the time, I am sticking with Murray. Murray was overall a step above the competition in the second half of 2016, and having beaten Wawrinka in conditions that were even better suited to Stan's game at RG a few months earlier. I don't think Wawrinka was playing as well at that time, as he was in 2013 to 2015.
 

ibbi

Legend
Where does the idea that he was done by Australia come from? He played really well in Doha, makes the final without dropping a set and takes Novak (albeit bad Novak) 3 sets. He had zero problems in Australia before running into Mischa, and he wins Dubai soon after.

After that things certainly took a turn for the worse, but his Roland Garros run that year was pretty incredible, maybe as good as he's ever had there, and he's nowhere near as happy there as he is in Australia.

Yes by Wimbledon he was absolutely walking wounded, but I'm not sure I entirely buy that any of his problems prior to that point were particularly physical.

It's easy to say in retrospect he has no chance against the trio of Federer, Stan and Rafa, but at the time he was newly crowned number 1, while Roger was a total unknown quantity after 6 months off, and Rafa was entirely washed up.

The 2016 USO certainly has to be as major a missed opportunity as there has ever been given how dominant he was before (minus the Cilic loss) and after. I know he has never been particularly consistent there, but from someone who is supposed to be an all time great just smothered by three greater greats you would expect more impressive true grit when an opportunity falls that open in front of him.
 

Feather

Legend
By 2017 he was feeling the effects of his run to get #1 and I don't think he would have gotten past Fed at AO.

2016 USO I'm not sure he was getting past Stan even if he beat Nishikori. In general Murray has been quite inconsistent at USO after his 2012 win. He's never a sure bet there no matter the form.
I don't think Andy Murray would have gotten past Roger Federer at AO 2017. I do think that had Roger played a grueling QF against Andy Murray after a five set marathon with Kei Nishikori, he would have lost either to Stan or Rafa in the final.. n
 

Hitman

G.O.A.T.
I don't think Andy Murray would have gotten past Roger Federer at AO 2017. I do think that had Roger played a grueling QF against Andy Murray after a five set marathon with Kei Nishikori, he would have lost either to Stan or Rafa in the final.. n
Agree. Federer doesn't win AO 2017 if he had to play Murray IMO. That match against Zverev was just what Fed needed at that stage to set himself for a shot at the title. Either Stan or Rafa would have taken him out.
 

Feather

Legend
The final was a close 4 sets because Wawrinka was a nervous wreck, he even threw up in the back before the match and said he couldn't control his emotions when he got out there. Djokovic was taking advantage of that, but as soon as Stan started to settle in, it was clear who was winning the match.

And while Wawrinka is a tough match up for Novak, please don't tell me that the Novak that was playing the USO was of the same caliber that played the AO earlier that year, because he wasn't anywhere to close to that world destroyer. Murray was playing very well in that latter part of the 2016 season.

If you think he would find a way to collapse against an out of form Djokovic, you can, I don't agree with that at all. Murray would have loved that shot against Djokovic there, and I still stand by the belief he beats Stan, since he took him out on clay earlier that year. Murray was riding high on momentum and confidence with massive wins in Wimbledon and Olympics.

So, for me, Murray lost a massive chance for a multi slam year in 2016, but he wasn't winning AO 2017, one of Federer, Wawrinka or Nadal would have beaten him.
I agree completely with you.
 

Feather

Legend
Agree. Federer doesn't win AO 2017 if he had to play Murray IMO. That match against Zverev was just what Fed needed at that stage to set himself for a shot at the title. Either Stan or Rafa would have taken him out.
I still remember, Roger Federer's match was after Andy Murray's match. I was happy when Andy Murray lost. Even though Novak Djokovic was out of the tournament, Roger had a tough path. When Andy lost, I was kinda overconfident and was expecting him to reach final at least. Coz I felt he will beat both Mischa Zverev and Stan. And that Kei match made me almost regret for being overconfident. Roger scraped through and he got a relatively easy opponent in QF. Again he played a five setter in SF but he got an extra day. Things just happened for him.

I even opened a thread here that Roger will beat Rafa in the final
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
Agree. Federer doesn't win AO 2017 if he had to play Murray IMO. That match against Zverev was just what Fed needed at that stage to set himself for a shot at the title. Either Stan or Rafa would have taken him out.
Second biggest what-if after potential Djokodal final FO 2011? Both were 1 match away from happening.
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
I still remember, Roger Federer's match was after Andy Murray's match. I was happy when Andy Murray lost. Even though Novak Djokovic was out of the tournament, Roger had a tough path. When Andy lost, I was kinda overconfident and was expecting him to reach final at least. Coz I felt he will beat both Mischa Zverev and Stan. And that Kei match made me almost regret for being overconfident. Roger scraped through and he got a relatively easy opponent in QF. Again he played a five setter in SF but he got an extra day. Things just happened for him.

I even opened a thread here that Roger will beat Rafa in the final
You were probably one of only a handful of people who believed in Fed's chances.
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
I still remember, Roger Federer's match was after Andy Murray's match. I was happy when Andy Murray lost. Even though Novak Djokovic was out of the tournament, Roger had a tough path. When Andy lost, I was kinda overconfident and was expecting him to reach final at least. Coz I felt he will beat both Mischa Zverev and Stan. And that Kei match made me almost regret for being overconfident. Roger scraped through and he got a relatively easy opponent in QF. Again he played a five setter in SF but he got an extra day. Things just happened for him.

I even opened a thread here that Roger will beat Rafa in the final
Also, I remember back then feeling more shocked of Murray's loss than Djokovic's. At that time Murray losing felt like the bigger upset.
 

Sabrina

Professional
Murray's 2017 AO lost was one of the most bizarres I've ever seen. To me Murray has the perfect game to counter S&V players like M.Zverev. Not to mention that Andy was playing really well before that (reached Doha Final and didn't drop a set in the first 3 matches). Murray was the bookie favorite immediately after Djokovic was knocked out. Maybe stars was aligned for Fed to win that tournament.
 

JaoSousa

Hall of Fame
Nishikori, Wawrinka, Djokovic
Federer, Wawrinka, Nadal

Tough draws, as always.
He lost to Nishikori in the first one, and didn't even get to Federer in the next one. That means he lost even before getting to the tough part of the draw.
 

StrongRule

G.O.A.T.
Murray's 2017 AO lost was one of the most bizarres I've ever seen. To me Murray has the perfect game to counter S&V players like M.Zverev. Not to mention that Andy was playing really well before that (reached Doha Final and didn't drop a set in the first 3 matches). Murray was the bookie favorite immediately after Djokovic was knocked out. Maybe stars was aligned for Fed to win that tournament.
How exactly? Murray takes the ball late, which helped Zverev a lot, he had enough time to react at the net. Actually, that was a great serve and volley performance from him. Don't forget he also almost beat Djokovic in Shanghai 2016 with the same playing style.

Players who are really nightmare matchups for M.Zverev are Federer and Nadal. Federer takes the ball very early and Zverev just doesn't have the time to react. It was seen in their 1/4 final match.
 

zagor

Bionic Poster
I don't think Andy Murray would have gotten past Roger Federer at AO 2017. I do think that had Roger played a grueling QF against Andy Murray after a five set marathon with Kei Nishikori, he would have lost either to Stan or Rafa in the final.. n
Yeah, Mischa was a nice break for Fed. Journeymen net rushing type player Fed eats for breakfast, he grew up playing served and volleyers so it's not something that is gonna disrupt his rhytm,

Grinding it out with Murray (even if he beats him in 3-4 sets) and then still having enough in the tank for Stan and Nadal would have been too much too ask. Murray would have made it a physical battle no matter what, not what Fed needed.
 
Yeah, Mischa was a nice break for Fed. Journeymen net rushing type player Fed eats for breakfast, he grew up playing served and volleyers so it's not something that is gonna disrupt his rhytm,

Grinding it out with Murray (even if he beats him in 3-4 sets) and then still having enough in the tank for Stan and Nadal would have been too much too ask. Murray would have made it a physical battle no matter what, not what Fed needed.
Would have been nicer had he beaten Murray en route to his AO victory
 

NoleFam

Talk Tennis Guru
Definitely for 2016 USO. Terrible to lose his concentration after that "gong" point and lose 5 ganes in a row, and the match.
 
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