2017 ATP Next Gen Finals: Rublev & Shapovalov Battle SF Berth

Who wins?

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Meles

Meles

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RubyShapsChung.jpg


Chung has secured Group Leader leaving Rublev and Shapovalov to battle for 2nd. No previous matches. Bookies narrowly favor Denis. Rublev was quite tired in his loss yesterday to Chung with very low first serve points won for the opening sets. Shapovalov won yesterday, but the match got surprisingly tight with Quinzi serving for 3rd set at 40-15, but Shaps fought back to a deciding point and won one of the points of the year with an amazing backhand crosscourt winner to make a 3rd set breaker. Quinzi prevailed in the tight breaker, but Shaps returned the favor in the 4th set breaker to take the match.

RUBLEV:
RR A W Gianluigi Quinzi 1-4 4-0 4-3(3) 0-4 4-3(3)
RR A L Hyeon Chung 4-0 4-1 4-3(1)

SHAPOVALOV:
RR A L Hyeon Chung 1-4 4-3(5) 4-3(4) 4-1
RR A W Gianluigi Quinzi 4-1 4-1 3-4(5) 4-3(5)

Who will get the jump on this future rivalry?

First NextGen Finals Match Thread:cool:
@Sysyphus @Poisoned Slice @metsman approved
 
Meles said:
RubyShapsChung.jpg


Chung has secured Group Leader leaving Rublev and Shapovalov to battle for 2nd. No previous matches. Bookies narrowly favor Denis. Rublev was quite tired in his loss yesterday to Chung with very low first serve points won for the opening sets. Shapovalov won yesterday, but the match got surprisingly tight with Quinzi serving for 3rd set at 40-15, but Shaps fought back to a deciding point and won one of the points of the year with an amazing backhand crosscourt winner to make a 3rd set breaker. Quinzi prevailed in the tight breaker, but Shaps returned the favor in the 4th set breaker to take the match.

RUBLEV:
RR A W Gianluigi Quinzi 1-4 4-0 4-3(3) 0-4 4-3(3)
RR A L Hyeon Chung 4-0 4-1 4-3(1)

SHAPOVALOV:
RR A L Hyeon Chung 1-4 4-3(5) 4-3(4) 4-1
RR A W Gianluigi Quinzi 4-1 4-1 3-4(5) 4-3(5)

Who will get the jump on this future rivalry?

First NextGen Finals Match Thread:cool:
@Sysyphus @Poisoned Slice @metsman approved
Click to expand...
I don't give a crap about the result of any match. it's an exo with a bs format and the players are probably tired from having to take the short yellow schoolbus to matches
 
metsman said:
I don't give a crap about the result of any match. it's an exo with a bs format and the players are probably tired from having to take the short yellow schoolbus to matches
Click to expand...
Using this logic you won't be watching WTF.:rolleyes:
 
Money holds from 0-30. Controversy over the clocks as the 5 minute clock wasn't up for warmup and Rublev broke string (clock paused while he got racquet.)
 
Rublev with the less effective holds, but his first serve velocity much higher than his last match.:p
 
For the record versus the other tour finals:
Shaps 1-0 versus Nadal
Rublev beat Dimitrov and Goffin at US Open:eek:
 
@Meles

What are your expectations for Shapovalov in 2018? I think that he will struggle. I am confident that he will not make the progress that many expect from him until 2019 or later (if ever) and think there is a good chance that he will overall do worse in 2018 than in 2017. What do you reckon?
 
helterskelter said:
@Meles

What are your expectations for Shapovalov in 2018? I think that he will struggle. I am confident that he will not make the progress that many expect from him until 2019 or later (if ever) and think there is a good chance that he will overall do worse in 2018 than in 2017. What do you reckon?
Click to expand...

I think he'll continue to be streaky as he is now but improving on some aspects at time. He's going to have a tough time holding the points he got in August but then again he is going to get more chances to earn bigger points in higher rated tournaments.
 
helterskelter said:
@Meles

What are your expectations for Shapovalov in 2018? I think that he will struggle. I am confident that he will not make the progress that many expect from him until 2019 or later (if ever) and think there is a good chance that he will overall do worse in 2018 than in 2017. What do you reckon?
Click to expand...
Don't fully trust the stats baseline on him yet, but I do on serve and he's exceptionally high for his age on serve points won. His return stats I trust less and he was winning around 38% of hard court return points which is acceptable for his age for a top player. 36-37 might be the real number and that leaves him with work to do.

Players can improve substantially on return, but it is harder. Rublev is one who has made an excellent move on return going from 33% in 2015, 36% in 2016, and 37.4% in 2017 on hard courts. The improvement is mainly on 2nd return where Money is one of the tour's best.:p Rublev's serve game is another story, but he'll get stronger and stronger like Zverev eventually and those numbers will get on track. Rublev's serve is actually down quite a bit from 2016 and he's nowhere near good as Shaps on serve despite being two years older.:oops:

Return is really important. Khachanov is going downhill on that number. I intend to create a stats thread on some of these NextGen players discussing it all.
 
Sparlingo said:
I think he'll continue to be streaky as he is now but improving on some aspects at time. He's going to have a tough time holding the points he got in August but then again he is going to get more chances to earn bigger points in higher rated tournaments.
Click to expand...
That is a huge thing for both players. They've got to do well in Australia in order to maintain direct entry status on tour which gets them into everything. Their breakthroughs this year really help them and it is a shame they won't get points for this event as all of these players could use the boost and the tour would be better for it.
 
Meles said:
That is a huge thing for both players. They've got to do well in Australia in order to maintain direct entry status on tour which gets them into everything. Their breakthroughs this year really help them and it is a shame they won't get points for this event as all of these players could use the boost and the tour would be better for it.
Click to expand...

In that respect Shapo's flashy game is going to get him WC's if he doesn't make it directly
 
Meles said:
Don't fully trust the stats baseline on him yet, but I do on serve and he's exceptionally high for his age on serve points won. His return stats I trust less and he was winning around 38% of hard court return points which is acceptable for his age for a top player. 36-37 might be the real number and that leaves him with work to do.

Players can improve substantially on return, but it is harder. Rublev is one who has made an excellent move on return going from 33% in 2015, 36% in 2016, and 37.4% in 2017 on hard courts. The improvement is mainly on 2nd return where Money is one of the tour's best.:p Rublev's serve game is another story, but he'll get stronger and stronger like Zverev eventually and those numbers will get on track. Rublev's serve is actually down quite a bit from 2016 and he's nowhere near good as Shaps on serve despite being two years older.:oops:

Return is really important. Khachanov is going downhill on that number. I intend to create a stats thread on some of these NextGen players discussing it all.
Click to expand...

I agree that Shapovalov will improve eventually. I just don't think he will necessarily do so next year. Sophomore slumps are really common in the history of tennis. At a far higher level of achievement than anything Shapovalov has yet achieved, think of Sampras in 1991, when he admitted that the burden of being US Open champion was preying on his mind all year, and which was partly responsible for him doing relatively poorly until after he had been dethroned. He even managed to lose to Jim Courier at the US Open, and that was something that was basically impossible for him on hard courts (16-4 overall head-to-head, but two of Courier's wins were on clay. And the other was on carpet, so the 91 US Open match was actually the only time he ever beat Sampras on hard courts).
 
Shaps serves out of a spot of bother at 30 all with two first serves and a lightning groundie.:D
 
Sparlingo said:
I think he'll continue to be streaky as he is now but improving on some aspects at time. He's going to have a tough time holding the points he got in August but then again he is going to get more chances to earn bigger points in higher rated tournaments.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I can see him doing well in the fall season. I think he'll struggle until then. Perhaps do okay on grass. With his forehand, he should eventually be reasonably well-suited for clay, but I doubt he'll be patient enough for it next year.
 
helterskelter said:
I agree that Shapovalov will improve eventually. I just don't think he will necessarily do so next year. Sophomore slumps are really common in the history of tennis. At a far higher level of achievement than anything Shapovalov has yet achieved, think of Sampras in 1991, when he admitted that the burden of being US Open champion was preying on his mind all year, and which was partly responsible for him doing relatively poorly until after he had been dethroned. He even managed to lose to Jim Courier at the US Open, and that was something that was basically impossible for him on hard courts (16-4 overall head-to-head, but two of Courier's wins were on clay. And the other was on carpet, so the 91 US Open match was actually the only time he ever beat Sampras on hard courts).
Click to expand...
Someone did a statistical analysis on Shapo and saw nothing but a higher trajectory as he improved his volley and couple of other areas, and I tend to agree.
 
helterskelter said:
I agree that Shapovalov will improve eventually. I just don't think he will necessarily do so next year. Sophomore slumps are really common in the history of tennis. At a far higher level of achievement than anything Shapovalov has yet achieved, think of Sampras in 1991, when he admitted that the burden of being US Open champion was preying on his mind all year, and which was partly responsible for him doing relatively poorly until after he had been dethroned. He even managed to lose to Jim Courier at the US Open, and that was something that was basically impossible for him on hard courts (16-4 overall head-to-head, but two of Courier's wins were on clay. And the other was on carpet, so the 91 US Open match was actually the only time he ever beat Sampras on hard courts).
Click to expand...
I doubt either of these two slumps much. Both love the game, really outgoing, and so not seeing a Sampras type issue. Either Shaps will prove to have it on return or he won't in my mind. Rublev is impressive with his gains on return.
 
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