2017 Australian Open QF MILOS "the Lumberjack" Raonic vs. RAFAEL "the Bull" Nadal

Who makes the semifinal?

  • Total voters
    144
Although its nice to see Rafa back in a QF HC-slam, i think unfortunately this is where it ends. Tight 5 sets vs Zverev, and was struggling vs a choking Clownfils in the fourth. Rafa in 2013 level would win those matches in straights. If Milos plays his top game its over for Rafa. Milos will probably serve bad in one set so ill go with Milos in 4.
 
I think Milos takes this in 5 - the key is to be aggressive on Rafa's second serve.
And of course he needs to take care of own service games, making sure he does not hit any bkhands at all.
 
top10 said:
I think Milos takes this in 5 - the key is to be aggressive on Rafa's second serve.
And of course he needs to take care of own service games, making sure he does not hit any bkhands at all.
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Why ? His backhand has improved imho.
 
Hard to predict. Have a slight feeling that it may be Milos's turn to take out the Bull in a slam. Bull got pushed to the edge by Z, struggled enough with Monfils today as well, and that too could've gone five if Monfils didn't Monfils from 4-2 up in the fourth. The biggest key to beating Rafa is cleaning up on the short points, and Milos is better suited to doing that than Gaël, but he needs his serve to be clocking. There was a stat after the third round showing that the players who do better in the 0–4 shot rally category won 92% of the matches. It's absolutely the key battleground. Extended rallies don't determine the outcome; the quality of your first two shots does. If Milos gets lots of unreturned serves, good serve + one plays, and manages to tee off on Rafa's second serves, then he's well on his way.

That said, it would seem that Milos wasn't exactly amazing today either. He had to save multiple BPs at 4-4 in the third set, so RBA could've easily gone up 2-1 in sets. So if RBA can get to that point, it's not like Rafa's chanceless by any stretch of the imagination.

Wouldn't be surprised to see this go five.
 
I would have said Nadal in 4 or 5 (against Raonic) after his 3rd round victory over the young rising German. I felt that Rafa played well in that match. He coped well with the pressure and found that "extra" when he needed it.

However his performance against Monfils was worse. He seems to be back with mental lapses and passivity especially in the 3rd and 4th set. The key components of Nadal's game IMO are his ROS (his biggest weakness), I/o forehand, DTL forehand and his shot placement.
Even when he hits short balls, as long as they are angled, they still drag the opponent off the court because of the spin.
HE gets into trouble when he hits short AND in the middle. The balls rise up (in the strike zone) and any half-aggressive player can simply take big cuts with reasonable accuracy and thereby take control of the match.

Can Nadal be aggressive with his off forehand and not suck too bad at his ROS? Can he use his spin and create angles ( thereby spreading the court and making Milos move side to side)?
He might if he played as well as he did in the earlier part of the tournament. He would certainly want to improve over his 4th round performance, because that definitely won't cut it against a quality opponent.

As it stands, Milos has a better than 50% chance. He could wrap this up in 4 sets most likely.

However, this is a very important match for Nadal. Rafa needs to raise his level. If he does that he has the game to beat the Canadian ( irrespective of how Raonic plays).
At 30+, the tail end of his career, does Rafa has the extra gear in him anymore? If he doesn't he will NOT be a slam contender this year. If he does, then he may win one or 2 more slams before he calls it quits. This tournament will tell us a lot.

I'm feeling optimistic on this beautiful morning. So Nadal in five..
 
Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil said:
Welcome back to the 2nd week of Grand Slams, Bull. :)

Unleash THE BEAST!

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Sysyphus said:
Hard to predict. Have a slight feeling that it may be Milos's turn to take out the Bull in a slam. Bull got pushed to the edge by Z, struggled enough with Monfils today as well, and that too could've gone five if Monfils didn't Monfils from 4-2 up in the fourth. The biggest key to beating Rafa is cleaning up on the short points, and Milos is better suited to doing that than Gaël, but he needs his serve to be clocking. There was a stat after the third round showing that the players who do better in the 0–4 shot rally category won 92% of the matches. It's absolutely the key battleground. Extended rallies don't determine the outcome; the quality of your first two shots does. If Milos gets lots of unreturned serves, good serve + one plays, and manages to tee off on Rafa's second serves, then he's well on his way.

That said, it would seem that Milos wasn't exactly amazing today either. He had to save multiple BPs at 4-4 in the third set, so RBA could've easily gone up 2-1 in sets. So if RBA can get to that point, it's not like Rafa's chanceless by any stretch of the imagination.

Wouldn't be surprised to see this go five.
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Milos always struggles a bit with RBA flat little pace hitting. Doesn't mean Milos isn't in good form. He will like Nadal's higher bouncing balls more to whail one.
 
Raonic in a pretty easy three.

Rafa hasn't really looked any better yet than he has in losing early the last two years'+ worth of slams. Now that his forehand is just routine, Raonic outclasses him on every stroke but maybe backhand, and Rafa's backhand isn't a weapon anyway.

Unlike Monfils, Raonic won't just hit Nadal four sets' worth of neutral rally balls and hope for error. Unlike Zverev, Raonic will actually show up and play well...and Zverev looking terrible was almost enough to take this version of Nadal out. I don't think there's a player left in the tournament Nadal can beat playing like this. His FH's just not a weapon any more. Losing a set last night to a guy who gives up prior to facing any good player is just embarrassing.
 
Dan Z said:
Genuinely hope Nadal wins this. The prospect of having Raonic in the semi / final is too much to bear. Tennis would die.
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Over the course of their upcoming match, Raonic will hit about ten times as many different types of shots as human metronome Nadal will. His ilk has already driven tennis to the verge of extinction. It draws worse ratings than M*A*S*H* reruns.

Milos is what tennis needs.
 
I know that Raonic won their encounter two weeks ago but this is over 5 sets. Therefore I will get the slight edge to Rafa. Even though Raonic is younger he ain't a fitness guru.
 
A quick match favors Raonic. It's completely possible that he just blows Nadal off the court.

If Nadal is healthy, the longer the match goes, the more I like his chances.
 
Normally Nadal would have no problem exposing Raonic.

However the Nadal I've seen at the US Open, the slight improvements that I noticed from Raonic (Volleys and Return of Serve), it's going to be really close.

But Nadal's mental strength is much higher than Raonic.

I say Nadal in 5 sets.
 
If Nadal plays aggressive tennis, he will beat Raonic because he's still better from the baseline than the Canuck. By being aggressive, I mean going for his shots and not waiting for Raonic errors. If however Nadal plays passively, Raonic will show him the way out in 4 or 5.

Even as a nervous Rafa fan because I know Milos can beat him, I think it will be Rafa in 4.
 
Soul_Evisceration said:
Normally Nadal would have no problem exposing Raonic.

However the Nadal I've seen at the US Open, the slight improvements that I noticed from Raonic (Volleys and Return of Serve), it's going to be really close.

But Nadal's mental strength is much higher than Raonic.

I say Nadal in 5 sets.
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That's very true of the player Nadal once was, but not so much of the player he's been since 'round 2015. Raonic's currently #9 in the 'under pressure' metric, whereas Nadal is way down at #36. In the three last HC slams Nadal has played he ended up losing in fifth sets in matches where he seemed in control.

So I'd no longer lay down my bets too strongly on Nadal if it turns into a really close affair.
 
I think Nadal will expose Milo's lack of movement from the baseline. I can see him just yo yo'ing Milo's all over the court. I hope my fellow Canuck wins, but I'll take Nadal. He's playing with extreme confidence right now.
 
both players have mental frailties..milos still chokes and rafa has been choking more and more in last couple of years..

milos is going to net rush a fair bit which should be a laugh, looks like milos's serve is good with 33aces today.

how will rafa's stamna hold up?..how will his so-so serve hold up?..he hardly gets any any ace's these days which isn't ideal. nadal should junkball milos and throw him off kilter. slice n dice. sounds rather nice.

dunno who will win, someone in 3/4/5 sets I think.
 
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Noleberic123 said:
I know that Raonic won their encounter two weeks ago but this is over 5 sets. Therefore I will get the slight edge to Rafa. Even though Raonic is younger he ain't a fitness guru.
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Neither is Rafa at this stage of his career. He also did fairly well against Federer @ Wimby in 5 sets.

I think that Raonic is looking like a beast.
 
Goosehead said:
both players have mental frailties..milos still chokes and rafa has been choking more and more in last couple of years..

milos is going to net rush a fair bit which should be a laugh, looks like mios's serve is good with 33aces today.

how will rafa's stamna hold up?..how will his so-so serve hold up?..he hardly gets any any ace's these days which isn't ideal. nadal should junkball milos and throw him off kilter. slice n dice. sounds rather nice.

dunno who will win, someone in 3/4/5 sets I think.
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Milos is no longer a choker by any means.
 
SinjinCooper said:
Raonic in a pretty easy three.

Rafa hasn't really looked any better yet than he has in losing early the last two years'+ worth of slams. Now that his forehand is just routine, Raonic outclasses him on every stroke but maybe backhand, and Rafa's backhand isn't a weapon anyway.

Unlike Monfils, Raonic won't just hit Nadal four sets' worth of neutral rally balls and hope for error. Unlike Zverev, Raonic will actually show up and play well...and Zverev looking terrible was almost enough to take this version of Nadal out. I don't think there's a player left in the tournament Nadal can beat playing like this. His FH's just not a weapon any more. Losing a set last night to a guy who gives up prior to facing any good player is just embarrassing.
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Have you been watching? His serve and his FH have improved. Not to 2013 levels, but above 2014-2016 general levels for sure.
 
Nostradamus said:
yea man, Zeverev serve is very strong like Raonic. Raonic just serve and volley better
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I feel the exact opposite. Zverev's serve leaves a lot to be desired in terms of placement and clutchness. And of course Raonic's is also quite a bit faster. In fact, I feel Zverev's serve is among the worst among those with a similar pace. (Of course, the pace makes it an above average serve in general. I feel someone like Roger serves better, though.)
Zverev with Raonic's serve is pretty nigh unbeatable. I hope he irons out his service game in the next couple of years, and that will really be something to watch.
 
Meles said:
Zverev probably better than Raonic atm. Nadal in 4. Propect of 5th too much for RaoMug to handle.:eek:
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Of the baseline, definitely. Zverev's issue with service games is pretty problematic at this point, though (and it shouldn't be for someone with such great groundstrokes and a fast serve). In the match against Nadal he was routinely in trouble on his own service games, many of which to his credit he pulled out on sheer grit.
The service game still remains IMO the most important part of men's tennis. Raonic will simply be a lot more comfortable holding his serve. That will, I feel, make him, at least for now, a tougher opponent at the highest levels.
 
Meles said:
Zverev probably better than Raonic atm. Nadal in 4. Propect of 5th too much for RaoMug to handle.:eek:
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Don't think that is the case. No way. Raonic can tough 5 sets now.

This match could be the match of the tournament. Whoever makes it out will be a wounded dog, that's for sure.
 
All depends which kind of day Nadal has: something like Zverev match or something like two last sets against Monfils.

If Milos is OK with his serve, the least I see this match is 5 sets. If that and a so and so Nadal, straight setter or a 4 set victory for the tall man :D
 
tenisdecente said:
All depends which kind of day Nadal has: something like Zverev match or something like two last sets against Monfils.

If Milos is OK with his serve, the least I see this match is 5 sets. If that and a so and so Nadal, straight setter or a 4 set victory for the tall man :D
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I don't think he played all that well against Zverev. His forehands were way short. I think if Zverev had a bit more confidence, the match would of went differently.
 
Rusty Shackleford said:
Zverev was serving very well in the 1st Set, but his percentage otherwise was crap (and can't be considered a servebot unlike Raonic, who is a serving machine).
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If average RBA can break BotMUG at love to level set 1, then cruise to a 5-1 lead in the TB before folding, then go down 0-2 before winning set 2 by 6-3, the not so Rusty Bull will handle the Viagra-addicted Missile's thruster engines and send him back into his silo for necessary repair.
 
Thinking Milos wins, but hoping for Nadal.

Milos has the ability to blow Nadal off the court.

At this point, Nadal needs a little help from Milos to win.
 
I can't believe I'm saying this but the longer it goes the more I favor Raonic.

I'm picking Nadal in very close 4 sets, though. But if Raonic somehow wins the 4th set I think his serve will get him through.
 
Meles said:
Zverev probably better than Raonic atm. Nadal in 4. Propect of 5th too much for RaoMug to handle.:eek:
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Don't agree. Zverev is closing in on top 10 quality already, yes, but Raonic is top 10 quality by some margin. Don't forget that Z needed five sets versus Haase.
While Z may indeed already be hanging more credibly with Rafa in Rafa's bread and butter rallies due to Z's stellar backhand and decent movement, Raonic is far more trustworthy when it comes to the first two strokes — and the clear majority of points in this match will be restricted to max two strokes per player, believe it or not. The players who win those rallies nearly always win the matches here.

Rao has beaten Wawrinka and Fed in slam fifth sets for one, and Nadal has lost in fifth setters to non-top-10 players in his last three HC slam appearances, so I don't see that as undoable at all for Rao if it comes to that, but it would favor Rafa slightly.
 
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