2017 Australian Open QF MILOS "the Lumberjack" Raonic vs. RAFAEL "the Bull" Nadal

Who makes the semifinal?

  • Total voters
    144
Gary Duane said:
Nadal's stats show that he was at least one of two of the greatest returners on clay in tennis history, and I would argue that the habit of standing way back pays off on clay.
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Competence on the service return is a very different thing than having an effective return game. There is some relation and correspondence, but in Rafa's case I will argue that the correlation is probably much weaker than with many other players.
 
icedevil0289 said:
you actually think rafa will get stomped by fed here? are you sure you did not mean the other way around, considering rafa is 3-0 against fed here, and overall fed has, unfortunately, a huge mental block against rafa.
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Understand that view, but we're not talking about the same Rafa as in the past. His serve is OK at best, his return and defense is not what it was, and his forehand doesn't penetrate like it did in the past. Plus with the court playing faster and lower bouncing this year Fed would have easy pickings. It would be a repeat of the 2011 WTF on a big scale. Nadal would have no chance at all.
 
Gut Check said:
Competence on the service return is a very different thing than having an effective return game. There is some relation and correspondence, but in Rafa's case I will argue that the correlation is probably much weaker than with many other players.
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In the past Nadal would chew Raonic up and spit him out, he used to be unbelievable at getting returns back, but that's not the case anymore. Raonic should be pretty untroubled on his serve.
 
The biggest problem I see for Rafa is that when he stands so far back against good servers even if he gets it back it falls right around the service line. From there Milosh can simply unleash his forehand or play a nice deep approach shot with his backhand, and then it's his point to lose.

As for breaking Nadal, he really doesn't need to do it every set, although nowadays everybody breaks Nadal. I'd always bet on Milosh winning a TB, especially against someone like Nadal who gets no free points on his serve.
 
Urkezi said:
The biggest problem I see for Rafa is that when he stands so far back against good servers even if he gets it back it falls right around the service line. From there Milosh can simply unleash his forehand or play a nice deep approach shot with his backhand, and then it's his point to lose.

As for breaking Nadal, he really doesn't need to do it every set, although nowadays everybody breaks Nadal. I'd always bet on Milosh winning a TB, especially against someone like Nadal who gets no free points on his serve.
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In the past standing so far back wouldn't be a real issue for him because he was such a return-making machine, but now with his limited movement he has to be much more aggressive.
 
YellowFedBetter said:
Understand that view, but we're not talking about the same Rafa as in the past. His serve is OK at best, his return and defense is not what it was, and his forehand doesn't penetrate like it did in the past. Plus with the court playing faster and lower bouncing this year Fed would have easy pickings. It would be a repeat of the 2011 WTF on a big scale. Nadal would have no chance at all.
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LMAO I love how we both havemore or less the same fear, but opposite results. I do hope you are right though:D
 
YellowFedBetter said:
In the past Nadal would chew Raonic up and spit him out, he used to be unbelievable at getting returns back, but that's not the case anymore. Raonic should be pretty untroubled on his serve.
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I don't know man, he dropped sets to guys like Bautista Agut and Gilles Simon, and neither one of those guys are big servers, or big hitters, nor do they have the pedigree of a Rafa Nadal.
 
YellowFedBetter said:
Understand that view, but we're not talking about the same Rafa as in the past. His serve is OK at best, his return and defense is not what it was, and his forehand doesn't penetrate like it did in the past. Plus with the court playing faster and lower bouncing this year Fed would have easy pickings. It would be a repeat of the 2011 WTF on a big scale. Nadal would have no chance at all.
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That is a key point, whether the court is so much faster and lower bouncing to be like WTF indoor conditions as far as ball trajectory, bounce and spin potential of the ball are concerned. Is Nadal having trouble making the ball really jump on his FHs.
 
Big_Dangerous said:
I don't know man, he dropped sets to guys like Bautista Agut and Gilles Simon, and neither one of those guys are big servers, or big hitters, nor do they have the pedigree of a Rafa Nadal.
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True, but I think Milos will pick up his level against Rafa. I don't care for him but I do like his attitude when he's against the top guys, he's not afraid of them, and he seems to play better when he's facing them (pre Pepe Djokovic aside).
 
sarmpas said:
That is a key point, whether the court is so much faster and lower bouncing to be like WTF indoor conditions as far as ball trajectory, bounce and spin potential of the ball are concerned. Is Nadal having trouble making the ball really jump on his FHs.
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Adding (apparently) the extra lead he did has helped him marginally with that, but he still has a ways to go to get where he needs to be. If he keep improving he should have a half-chance at the French.
 
TheGhostOfAgassi said:
Hail The Queen!

1bc83082306b2d338580c874482aa9ef509299f942448.jpg


:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:p:p:p:p:p:p:p:p:p
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Vacker brud!!
 
Gut Check said:
Competence on the service return is a very different thing than having an effective return game. There is some relation and correspondence, but in Rafa's case I will argue that the correlation is probably much weaker than with many other players.
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Absolutely true. I'm talking about return game. Roger has a better service return but in general does not win as many games on HCs. This makes him super effective against very aggressive players but does not help against the grinders, who wear down his patience!
 
mule250 said:
Anyone else noticed Raonic's backhand return looks really quite good? Not even for Raonic's standard but in general. Though his rally backhand is still quite hit or miss. Nadal will be aiming for it all match, if Raonic's backhand has a good match I can't see Nadal troubling him too much, but if it doesn't I think Raonic could be in for some suffering.
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yes, id on't recall Raonic's backhand this good, no?
 
ultradr said:
dimitrov won't be easy even he solved raonic.
this is a tough slam for nadal (that's why he won only one).
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Stan won't be a problem, he has a serious complex against Fed, but I do think if Dimitrov takes care of business he could be very dangerous against Rafa/Milos in the Semi and that could be a classic.
 
TheGhostOfAgassi said:
fantastisk! Tror ikke det er saa mange skandinavere her inne. Vi er de sanne vikinger! :D
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Vi är inte så många här inne, nej.

våra bröder har svikit oss!

- Dansken super skallen i bitar på Ströget i Köpenhamn.

- Finnen sitter i en skön bastu någonstans i Helsingfors.

- Isländaren? Ingen vet vad fanskapet gör.

En sann viking är den som sitter uppe om nätterna och försummar sitt jobb på grund av en tennis match....och bjuder alla på mjöd...naturligtvis:)
 
Incognito said:
Vi är inte så många här inne, nej.

våra bröder har svikit oss!

- Dansken super skallen i bitar på Ströget i Köpenhamn.

- Finnen sitter i en skön bastu någonstans i Helsingfors.

- Isländaren? Ingen vet vad fanskapet gör.

En sann viking är den som sitter uppe om nätterna och försummar sitt jobb på grund av en tennis match....och bjuder alla på mjöd...naturligtvis:)
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Giv os Skåne tilbage, svensk jävla.

Ja, jeg er med på at forsømme jobs (hvis jeg havde et) med at se tennis til ud på natten.
 
The real key is can Raonic change the narrative on these matches. Always when it gets to 4-4, 5-5, Nadal always finds a way to break and then rinse-repeat 1/2 more times. It's going to get to 4-4, 5-5 and Nadal will bet a break point. If Raonic can save that BP, hold and go on to win the 1st set then he has a HUGE chance to pull the upset.
 
Incognito said:
Vi är inte så många här inne, nej.

våra bröder har svikit oss!

- Dansken super skallen i bitar på Ströget i Köpenhamn.

- Finnen sitter i en skön bastu någonstans i Helsingfors.

- Isländaren? Ingen vet vad fanskapet gör.

En sann viking är den som sitter uppe om nätterna och försummar sitt jobb på grund av en tennis match....och bjuder alla på mjöd...naturligtvis:)
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Kanskje flere enn vi vet? ;)
 
Russeljones said:
You're going to have to convince me about that first part because I agree with the second. Come to think of it, there is a slight contradiction there.
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Yeah I did feel I contradicted myself to an extent.. But this is rafa we're talking about. Every match is in his hands except against Nole and Dustin Brown. If beastmode Rafa shows up Raonic is toast. But I've only seen small patches of him since 2013
 
ADuck said:
Yeah I did feel I contradicted myself to an extent.. But this is rafa we're talking about. Every match is in his hands except against Nole and Dustin Brown. If beastmode Rafa shows up Raonic is toast. But I've only seen small patches of him since 2013
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Like you said, this is Rafa we're talking about. Even though he may lack physical and mental strenght compared to previous versions of himself, he almost never fails to deliver on important matches such as the ones from the second week of Slams
 
So I hope this match goes 3h+ since I've got an alarm at 12:15 this morning and my godfather just bought me a beer.

Thankfully I live 5 metres from this bar.
 
smoledman said:
The real key is can Raonic change the narrative on these matches. Always when it gets to 4-4, 5-5, Nadal always finds a way to break and then rinse-repeat 1/2 more times. It's going to get to 4-4, 5-5 and Nadal will bet a break point. If Raonic can save that BP, hold and go on to win the 1st set then he has a HUGE chance to pull the upset.
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Raonic has become clutch. He doesn't fold like he used too. And his shot have become more consistent. Rafa is going to have to be 2012 mode to beat him, no doubt about it.
 
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