2017 Federer vs 2024 Sinner

Who's season will end up better?

  • Total voters
    58
TheFifthSet said:
2017 Federer.
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I think Federer plays clay that whole time if not for Rafa, so again I think his level there would have been close to his level everywhere else. It's just that he wasn't bothering, knowing he wouldn't have a realistic chance at the trophy
 
Rosstour said:
I think Federer plays clay that whole time if not for Rafa, so again I think his level there would have been close to his level everywhere else. It's just that he wasn't bothering, knowing he wouldn't have a realistic chance at the trophy
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But then if he plays clay, it lessens his tank for the rest of the year, affecting his chances on other surfaces and/or risking injury (which was a factor in late 2017 and much of 2018). So that would have to shape this hypothetical, otherwise we’re having our cake and eating it too.

Anyway, I give Sinner the edge on clay against 2017 Federer. That does not mean I’m arguing he’s a mug.
 
This is very interesting to me. I can’t call the AO. Sinner gains a lot of points at the FO. Fed at this point is favored at Wimbledon. He has the edge there. Sinner wins the USO outright. So, Fed problem wins 1-2 slam titles. Sinner wins 0-1 slam titles. But Sinner makes deeper runs. At slams point-wise, it’s a wash. Fed’s Sunshine double is intact. Sinner gains ground at the WTF(wins it), along with a few other masters events. This is close. But I think Sinner ends up world #1’in 2017 in an epic race among Fed, Nadal, and Sinner
 
Pheasant said:
This is very interesting to me. I can’t call the AO. Sinner gains a lot of points at the FO. Fed at this point is favored at Wimbledon. He has the edge there. Sinner wins the USO outright. So, Fed problem wins 1-2 slam titles. Sinner wins 0-1 slam titles. But Sinner makes deeper runs. At slams point-wise, it’s a wash. Fed’s Sunshine double is intact. Sinner gains ground at the WTF(wins it), along with a few other masters events. This is close. But I think Sinner ends up world #1’in 2017 in an epic race among Fed, Nadal, and Sinner
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Why would sinner win 0-1 when he is winning USO outright ? He can win ao as well so Fed 1-2 slams and sinner 1-2 slams

And let's forget Rafa. The question was between these 2. Fed owned Rafa but Rafa finished year number 1.
 
Rosstour said:
Why Sinner on clay? Fed was only really beatable on clay by Rafa, he even took Djoko 2011 out at RG. Fed isn't a clay mug by any means, just not quite good enough there to beat the greatest clay player of all time
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Considering Fed's level in 2017 overall I think he could pull off something like 2011 or 2012 of a clay season. I don't think he would beat Nadal on clay anywhere, so he's not winning any title, but could maybe push him to 3 sets in a MS, especially if it's Rome or Madrid.

He is seriously underrated on the surface, to this day I think he's at Djokovic's level, the difference is Djokovic had more shots at Nadal who was older and not so agile as earlier, cause Fed's entire clay prime coincided with Nadal's prime/peak, there was no chance he was gonna win as much as Djokovic.
 
It’s an interesting question though it’s kind of funny that 100 year old Fed can compare well to a 23 year old playing his best tennis and possibly the best season he will ever have as nothing is guaranteed in the future.

Complete season wise, I don’t see how Federer gets ahead of Sinner points wise since Federer didn’t play clay.

If we are looking at level, Sinner has been extremely dominant, but an ancient Fed was just as dominant. Federer was clearly outplayed only twice in 2017, (i.e., vs. Chainz in Canada though some of that was scheduling and vs. Delpo at the USO though a point in the third set might have changed all thst, which is wild at Fed’s age). Sinner has been clearly outplayed maybe 2-3 times this season as well.

When looking at their best wins and peak play, Federer at both IW and Wimbledon is ahead of anything Sinner has done this year, though Sinner at IW had hit his peak play for the year before the second set of the finals vs. Carlitos. Sinner’s demolition of Djoko at AO was great, but then his finals vs. Meddy was weak as he didn’t even clearly outplay him. The USO was excellent but no real great wins vs. an uninspiring field though Alcaraz not being ready to play isn’t his fault.
 
nolefam_2024 said:
Sinner will beat Nadal of AO 2017 in 4 which fed couldn't do. Don't forget 1 hander of fed still can't match 2 hander of sinner
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There’s no guarantee Sinner would beat Nadal at all let alone in 4. On that note, Sinner was somewhat lucky vs Medvedev and didn’t even really outplay him. Medvedev is not going to take the first two sets against Federer at 6-3 nor will he win the dominance ratio vs. him.

As for the 1hander, there are at least 50+ two handers Federer played against whose BHs were better than his one-hander. If Federer turned backhands into forehands vs. peak Djoko better than anyone else, he sure can vs. Sinner as well.
 
ghostofMecir said:
There’s no guarantee Sinner would beat Nadal at all let alone in 4. On that note, Sinner was somewhat lucky vs Medvedev and didn’t even really outplay him. Medvedev is not going to take the first two sets against Federer at 6-3 nor will he win the dominance ratio vs. him.

As for the 1hander, there are at least 50+ two handers Federer played against whose BHs were better than his one-hander. If Federer turned backhands into forehands vs. peak Djoko better than anyone else, he sure can vs. Sinner as well.
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2017 Federer would tear Medvedev to shreds. Federer is an absolutely horrifying matchup for Medvedev. I watched all of their matches in 2019. He stood no chance in 2019, let alone 2017, let alone anything close to peak Federer. It’s just not a good matchup for him.

I think Fed is a horrible matchup for Alcaraz too.

Against Sinner... I think it would be closer than against the other two. I just don’t see 2017 Fed losing to Sinner. Nobody plays like him today. But I think it would be more entertaining than both Medvedev and Alcaraz, Fed would tear them apart based on matchup and level of play.

I also agree: Sinner against 2017 Rafa is no guarantee at all.
 
Rovesciarete said:
Interesting bit what Bing dug up for me:

Based on data from Tennis Abstract, here are the statistics for Jannik Sinner, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, and Novak Djokovic regarding matches won and lost relative to their dominance ratios:

### Jannik Sinner
- **Matches Lost with Higher Dominance Ratio**: Sinner has lost **5 matches** despite having a higher dominance ratio¹.
- **Matches Won with Lower Dominance Ratio**: Sinner has won **3 matches** where his dominance ratio was lower than his opponent's¹.

### Roger Federer
- **Matches Lost with Higher Dominance Ratio**: Federer has lost **8 matches** despite having a higher dominance ratio².
- **Matches Won with Lower Dominance Ratio**: Federer has won **6 matches** where his dominance ratio was lower than his opponent's².

### Rafael Nadal
- **Matches Lost with Higher Dominance Ratio**: Nadal has lost **6 matches** despite having a higher dominance ratio³.
- **Matches Won with Lower Dominance Ratio**: Nadal has won **5 matches** where his dominance ratio was lower than his opponent's³.

### Andy Murray
- **Matches Lost with Higher Dominance Ratio**: Murray has lost **7 matches** despite having a higher dominance ratio⁴.
- **Matches Won with Lower Dominance Ratio**: Murray has won **4 matches** where his dominance ratio was lower than his opponent's⁴.

### Novak Djokovic
- **Matches Lost with Higher Dominance Ratio**: Djokovic has lost **7 matches** despite having a higher dominance ratio⁵.
- **Matches Won with Lower Dominance Ratio**: Djokovic has won **4 matches** where his dominance ratio was lower than his opponent's⁵.
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For what years is this data covering?
 
ghostofMecir said:
There’s no guarantee Sinner would beat Nadal at all let alone in 4. On that note, Sinner was somewhat lucky vs Medvedev and didn’t even really outplay him. Medvedev is not going to take the first two sets against Federer at 6-3 nor will he win the dominance ratio vs. him.

As for the 1hander, there are at least 50+ two handers Federer played against whose BHs were better than his one-hander. If Federer turned backhands into forehands vs. peak Djoko better than anyone else, he sure can vs. Sinner as well.
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Wait... 2021 Rafa is 3-0 against Sinner??? Not looking good for Jannik against Rafa. Fine, on clay, but still. I don’t know.

This is the difficult thing about this. You see Sinner playing well, but then you look at the H2H against old Rafa and it’s 0-3. How can I think Rafa would lose on hard when he took 2017 Fed to 3-1, final set, at the AO?

Sinner isn’t touching 2017 Fed with his IW level. No chance at all.
 
How the hell is Federer 2017 preferred to Sinner 2024?
Mysteries of faith...

Record (percentage)
Federer 2017= 54-5 (91.5%)
Sinner 2024= 73-6 (92.4%)

Titles won
Federer 2017= 7
Sinner 2024= 8

Slam
Federer 2017= 2
Sinner 2024= 2

Masters 1000
Federer 2017= 3
Sinner 2024= 3

Big title
Federer 2017= 5
Sinner 2024= 6

Australian Open
Federer 2017= Won
Sinner 2024= Won

Roland Garros
Federer 2017= Absent
Sinner 2024= Semifinal

Wimbledon
Federer 2017= Won
Sinner 2024= Quarterfinals

Us Open
Federer 2017= Quarterfinals
Sinner 2024= Win

ATP Finals
Federer 2017= Semifinals
Sinner 2024= Win

Indian Wells
Federer 2017= Win
Sinner 2024= Semifinals*

Miami
Federer 2017= Win
Sinner 2024= Win

Montecarlo
Federer 2017= Absent
Sinner 2024= Semifinals

Madrid
Federer 2017= Absent
Sinner 2024= Quarterfinals

Rome
Federer 2017= Absent
Sinner 2024= Absent

Canada Open
Federer 2017= Final
Sinner 2024= Quarterfinals

Cincinnati
Federer 2017= Absent
Sinner 2024= Win

Shanghai
Federer 2017= Win
Sinner 2024= Win

Paris Bercy
Federer 2017= Absent
Sinner 2024= Absent

500
Federer 2017
Dubai= Second round
Halle= Win
Basel= Win

Sinner 2024
Rotterdam= Win
Halle= Win
Beijing= Final

Davis Cup
Federer 2017= Absent
Sinner 2024= Win

Record vs top 10 (percentage)
Federer 2017= 14-2 (87.5%)
Sinner 2024= 18-5 (78.2%)

Record vs top 5 (percentage)
Federer 2017= 6-0 (100%)
Sinner 2024= 11-4 (73.3%)

End of year ranking (ranking points)
Federer 2017= 2nd (9,605)
Sinner 2024= 1st (11,830)

Records on surfaces
Hard
Federer 2017= 42-4 (91.3%)
Sinner 2024= 53-3 (94.6%)

Clay
Federer 2017= 0-0
Sinner 2024= 11-2 (84.6)

Grass
Federer 2017= 12-1 (92.3%)
Sinner 2024= 9-1 (90.0%)
 
Now that 2024 is done, I'd have to switch my vote. Sinner has since added a Masters title to level that 3 each. But the clincher was that Sinner set an Open Era record by going 5-0 at the WTF while losing no more than 4 games in a set during the 10 sets that he played(1986 Lendl had a set where he lost 5 games during his record of 11-0 in sets played).
 
Federer got injured badly in Montreal in 2017. Without that back issue, Fed would have cleaned up the rest of the season and put Sinner 2024 to shame.
 
Pheasant said:
Sinner's 2024 season, when I saw it, made me immediately think of Federer's 2017 season; especially the first two stats.

Will Sinner's 2024 season be considered better than Federer's 2017 after he completes this season?

Sinner 2024:
55-5, .917 overall record
1.42 Dominance Ratio
2 slam titles
2 Masters titles
10-4, .714 vs top-10 with a 1.22 Dominance Ratio

Federer 2017
54-5, .915 overall record
1.42 Dominance Ratio
2 slam titles
3 Masters titles
14-2, .875 vs top-10 with a 1.39 Dominance Ratio
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Who had the stiffer competition? Federer or Sinner?
 
nolefam_2024 said:
Federer is 91% hold and 26.7% break in 2017. He played almost same matches as Sinner today.
Sinner is 91% hold and 28.3% break in 2024. That includes clay which is not his best surface. Still he is above Fed till now.

In the end, tennis is young player's sport.
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The old ones had to get really old before the young guns could do anything.
 
nolefam_2024 said:
I mean tennis is young men's sport. Old guys can still win from time to time. But dominate no.
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I agree with the underlying reasoning, but Djokovic 2023 is truly the classic exception that proves the rule.
It's true that Djokovic 2023 had to dose his energy, yet he won practically all the most important tournaments of the season, the only one he didn't win was lost in the final in the fifth set when at the beginning of that fifth set he had a sensational break point that he didn't exploit to direct that decisive set in his favor (not to mention the tiebreak of the second set given to Alcaraz).
As a Sinner fan, I would absolutely swap between his 2024 and Djokovic's 2023.

Djokovic 2023>>>Federer 2017
 
Winner Sinner said:
I agree with the underlying reasoning, but Djokovic 2023 is truly the classic exception that proves the rule.
It's true that Djokovic 2023 had to dose his energy, yet he won practically all the most important tournaments of the season, the only one he didn't win was lost in the final in the fifth set when at the beginning of that fifth set he had a sensational break point that he didn't exploit to direct that decisive set in his favor (not to mention the tiebreak of the second set given to Alcaraz).
As a Sinner fan, I would absolutely swap between his 2024 and Djokovic's 2023.

Djokovic 2023>>>Federer 2017
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That is obvious. Djokovic has defied age till last year because unlike fed his movement was perfect.
 
Sinner vs top 20 hold rate is insane
Rest of the top 20 vs top 20

RDT-20241203-0019579201416478027312183.png
 
nolefam_2024 said:
Sinner vs top 20 hold rate is insane
Rest of the top 20 vs top 20

RDT-20241203-0019579201416478027312183.png
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Interesting data from Medvedev.
31-5 against players ranked outside the top 20 but 10-16 against the top 20.
His problem is not only Sinneraz and his seasonal record of 4-7 against players ranked 11-20 proves it.
While against top 10 his record is 6-9, but excluding Sinneraz it becomes 5-1.
An anomalous performance to say the least.
 
Hurkacz vs players outside top 20 record 32-9(27-2 vs outside top 50).
Record vs top 20 4-15.

The Polish weak with the strong and strong with the weak.
 
I would take Fed’s 2017 season over Sinner’s 2024 mainly because Fed’s is so good relative to the age he was when he achieved it, and the strength of the field when he achieved it.

Fed’s biggest 2017 wins also came by vanquishing Nadal several times in big events. I’m a Rafa fan, and seeing how Fed was able to do that was amazingly impressive. In Sinner’s case, he didn’t really achieve the same thing. He was amazing against the field, but the power struggle with Carlitos Alcaraz arguably ended up in Alcaraz’s favour, so there were question marks there for me.

As a Sinner fanboy, the matchup with Alcaraz was probably the biggest surprise to me all year. I thought Sinner might have unlocked a bit of gap between himself and Alcaraz in the matchup but it didn’t turn out that way.
 
Subway Tennis said:
I would take Fed’s 2017 season over Sinner’s 2024 mainly because Fed’s is so good relative to the age he was when he achieved it, and the strength of the field when he achieved it.

Fed’s biggest 2017 wins also came by vanquishing Nadal several times in big events. I’m a Rafa fan, and seeing how Fed was able to do that was amazingly impressive. In Sinner’s case, he didn’t really achieve the same thing. He was amazing against the field, but the power struggle with Carlitos Alcaraz arguably ended up in Alcaraz’s favour, so there were question marks there for me.

As a Sinner fanboy, the matchup with Alcaraz was probably the biggest surprise to me all year. I thought Sinner might have unlocked a bit of gap between himself and Alcaraz in the matchup but it didn’t turn out that way.
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Strength of field is very sad argument. Top 5 totally collapsed that year from last year.
 
nolefam_2024 said:
Not at all. You can put 100 smiley doesn't make much difference.
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Fair. Would you agree that the opponents Fed defeated en route to Wimbledon 2017 and AO 2017 were overall better than Sinner, and his control over the rivalry with Nadal that year was super impressive given his age disadvantage? I’m a Sinner fanboy but we have to give 2017erer the nod here.
 
Subway Tennis said:
Fair. Would you agree that the opponents Fed defeated en route to Wimbledon 2017 and AO 2017 were overall better than Sinner, and his control over the rivalry with Nadal that year was super impressive given his age disadvantage? I’m a Sinner fanboy but we have to give 2017erer the nod here.
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Yes they were. Fed at ao and Nadal at rg had great run in 2017.
 
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