2017 FO SF - [4] Nadal vs [6] Thiem

Who will win this match?

  • Nadal in 3

    Votes: 26 20.0%
  • Nadal in 4

    Votes: 51 39.2%
  • Nadal in 5

    Votes: 10 7.7%
  • Thiem in 3

    Votes: 7 5.4%
  • Thiem in 4

    Votes: 25 19.2%
  • Thiem in 5

    Votes: 11 8.5%

  • Total voters
  • Poll closed .

Adv. Edberg

4-2 Nadal

2017 ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Rome
Italy Outdoor Clay QF Dominic Thiem - 64 63

2017 ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Madrid
Spain Outdoor Clay F Rafael Nadal - 76 64

2017 Barcelona
Spain Outdoor Clay F Rafael Nadal - 64 61

2016 ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Monte Carlo
Monaco Outdoor Clay R16 Rafael Nadal - 75 63

2016 Buenos Aires
Argentina Outdoor Clay SF Dominic Thiem - 64 46 76

2014 Roland Garros
France Outdoor Clay R64 Rafael Nadal - 62 62 63



Tournament stats thanks to @falstaff78

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Thiem did look good today but I can't look past Dkjokovic's lack of fight. This match goes to show previous matches can mean nothing including Rafa's loss in Rome.

Thiem has the tools to win, but Rafa even more so and with it being best of 5 on the court Rafa has been the most dominant on, I am finding it hard not to see him as the favourite.

Nadal in 4.


Both haven't lost a set en route to the semis. Good to see that both will be fresh coming into this match. Just hope there won't be a letdown like Thiem did in Rome after scoring a big win.


Hall of Fame
Nadal in 3, maybe 4 (hell maybe even 5!)

Just FEELS like his year this year.

Would be a MONUMENTAL disappointment if he loses


Damn I wish had some people's optimism. Idek if thiem will get a set though I want to believe. I just feel like I've seen this story too many times and yes thiem deserves full credit for taking out Novak the defending champion but rafa this year is a diff animal and idek if this or rome can be used as predictors


Partly recycled post from the Nole-Thiem (Nothiem? Domivic?) thread.

Nadal's TSFH of Doom is again bouncing off the court like friggin' Sergei Bubka, these days. I'd say the result depends on whether Thiem can force himself to take the ball early like he did in Rome (and didn't in Madrid), but it might be too tall an order in Paris in dry conditions.

Otherwise both guys will camp well behind the baseline and it will become a war of attrition which should slightly favor Nadal, like in Madrid, if he is not regressing to Nad-dull mode and starts hitting a lot of short balls. DS galore.

I'll break out the popcorn anyway. I wonder what Trump has to say about this match.
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For tennis' sakes, I'll be happy with either outcome. I'm not sure Thiem has the energy to go 4 hours with Nadal over five sets. I think they go 2-2 and then in the fifth set... Thiem gets gassed.

Nadal in 5.


Hall of Fame
It is difficult to predict this match. On one hand, Nadal has been playing very good, but his opposition were clowns, to say something soft. In the other, Thiem has been crushing the ball all way through this point, straight-setting the current champion. To add a bit more morbo, the last match in Rome, even if Nadal was tired/depressed/heartbroken/injured/etc, was a fest for Thiem, and Rome conditions are the most similar to the ones here.

Pretty difficult to predict. I think the safe bet is Nadal in 4, but this will be a long match. I think Thiem is well prepared, without tiring matches, so he will be there at least in physical conditions.

I think this match will go the distance, and the guy remaining in the other side of the draw can take advantage in the final. If it is Wawrinka, I am fine with it. If it is Murray, please kill me: throw a toaster connected to the power outlet when I am taking a bath :D

For tennis' sakes, I'll be happy with either outcome. I'm not sure Thiem has the energy to go 4 hours with Nadal over five sets. I think they go 2-2 and then in the fifth set... Thiem gets gassed.

Nadal in 5.

I dont think so, in fact I think that will be a problem for Nadal, unless Eufemiano is giving him "advice" again. Thiem is one of the fittest guys in the tour, he is younger and he barely has break a sweat this RG. In worst situation for Thiem, both will be fresh or both tired in a long match


Nadal winning La Décima would make for a nice round number, if a tad repetitive. On the other hand, Thiem getting the cup after getting rid of Nole, Rafa and Wawa in a row would also be the stuff of which legends are born. And let's not discard the remaining contenders, maybe it is time for The Muzza to bump some heads. We'll see.


Bionic Poster
For tennis' sakes, I'll be happy with either outcome. I'm not sure Thiem has the energy to go 4 hours with Nadal over five sets. I think they go 2-2 and then in the fifth set... Thiem gets gassed.

Nadal in 5.
I'm not sure NADAL can go 5 sets with Thiem. Come on, Nadal is 31 years old, the times where he could just go toe to toe with his rivals and they will fold eventually in the 5th set are over. If Thiem wins one of the first 2 sets I think the upset is on.


Hall of Fame
I'll go with Nadal in 4 sets. His level right now is probably the best it's been over the last 4 years. Nadal will be a much tougher opponent for Thiem than Djokovic is at the moment, especially in a best of 5 sets. I can see Thiem stealing a set from Nadal, but I think Nadal will prevail. Let's face it, with Djokovic out, there aren't many obstacles left for Rafa. If you look at the other side of the draw, the only threat could come from Stan if he makes it through Cilic and probably Murray. For Stan to beat Rafa, he needs to become Stanimal. Will this happen? Very tough to predict. Stan still has a lot of work left in front of him before getting to the final.


Hall of Fame
Impressive win by Thiem today. He really hit through Novak.

My overall assessment of Thiem is that he still struggles with knowing what to do at the right times with his court positioning and shot selection. Sometimes squeezes the trigger a little too early, sometimes gets too far behind the baseline, especially on his backhand wing resulting in errors he otherwise would not make (he netted a lot today, because he hit his backhand late). I think he has such a heavy ground game that it'd suit his game if he went for bigger margins and better point construction. The lower amount of winners he'd hit as a result, would be compensated by fewer UEs and more FEs from the opponent as well. Although you have to keep in mind a one-handed backhand is more tailored towards generating acceleration and power than towards obtaining stability. But if Wawrinka and Gasquet can do it with their racket take-back, so should he.

I can't really figure out how Thiem should play Nadal tomorrow. I think Nadal is too solid defensively for him to just crush the ball at every opportunity he gets. Even though Nadal's defense hasn't really been tested, it's also the signal it sends to Nadal: "I know I can't fight with you, so I'm just going to go all out". Nadal feeds off that, unless the unlikely God-mode Soderling performance takes place.
I think Thiem is solid enough at the moment to mix it up. Drag out some rallies, make Nadal work. Finish off some rallies quickly, get close to that baseline. Thiem has to try to force the errors out of Nadal and not only try to blast winners past him.

Some things to note:
-Thiem's favourite kick serve on the ad court is going to go up high to Nadal's FH, which isn't going to trouble Nadal as much as it would others
- Look for both to serve in a way to set up their FHs. The one who manages to hit their forehand the most times after their serves is likely to double his odds of winning: ala the one who manages to direct their returns to the oponnents backhand the most times will have a clear advantage. The higher the first serve % the easier this will be
- What will Thiem do to get out of Nadal's forehand lockdown of his backhand side? Will he stand far back and hit his BH back cross court or will he risk by taking it earlier and/or redirect the ball to neutralize?
- Nadal hasn't faced a guy with Thiem's firepower so far. Will he be able to do his trademark passing shots when he's on the defensive? (This also begs the question: when and how much should Thiem approach the net? A question a certain Swiss has had a hard time answering for a lot of years) If Nadal makes some of these it means he's moving well and getting a read on Thiem's offense. It'll fire Nadal up, as well as make Thiem go for smaller margins, prompting more mistakes

Conditions are also looking pretty good for Thiem. Weather forecast says same conditions to today, actually a bit cooler.

I think either Nadal takes Thiem apart pretty handidly in three or this one will be a blockbuster with Nadal winning in a five set epic.
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