Impressive win by Thiem today. He really hit through Novak.
My overall assessment of Thiem is that he still struggles with knowing what to do at the right times with his court positioning and shot selection. Sometimes squeezes the trigger a little too early, sometimes gets too far behind the baseline, especially on his backhand wing resulting in errors he otherwise would not make (he netted a lot today, because he hit his backhand late). I think he has such a heavy ground game that it'd suit his game if he went for bigger margins and better point construction. The lower amount of winners he'd hit as a result, would be compensated by fewer UEs and more FEs from the opponent as well. Although you have to keep in mind a one-handed backhand is more tailored towards generating acceleration and power than towards obtaining stability. But if Wawrinka and Gasquet can do it with their racket take-back, so should he.
I can't really figure out how Thiem should play Nadal tomorrow. I think Nadal is too solid defensively for him to just crush the ball at every opportunity he gets. Even though Nadal's defense hasn't really been tested, it's also the signal it sends to Nadal: "I know I can't fight with you, so I'm just going to go all out". Nadal feeds off that, unless the unlikely God-mode Soderling performance takes place.
I think Thiem is solid enough at the moment to mix it up. Drag out some rallies, make Nadal work. Finish off some rallies quickly, get close to that baseline. Thiem has to try to force the errors out of Nadal and not only try to blast winners past him.
Some things to note:
-Thiem's favourite kick serve on the ad court is going to go up high to Nadal's FH, which isn't going to trouble Nadal as much as it would others
- Look for both to serve in a way to set up their FHs. The one who manages to hit their forehand the most times after their serves is likely to double his odds of winning: ala the one who manages to direct their returns to the oponnents backhand the most times will have a clear advantage. The higher the first serve % the easier this will be
- What will Thiem do to get out of Nadal's forehand lockdown of his backhand side? Will he stand far back and hit his BH back cross court or will he risk by taking it earlier and/or redirect the ball to neutralize?
- Nadal hasn't faced a guy with Thiem's firepower so far. Will he be able to do his trademark passing shots when he's on the defensive? (This also begs the question: when and how much should Thiem approach the net? A question a certain Swiss has had a hard time answering for a lot of years) If Nadal makes some of these it means he's moving well and getting a read on Thiem's offense. It'll fire Nadal up, as well as make Thiem go for smaller margins, prompting more mistakes
Conditions are also looking pretty good for Thiem. Weather forecast says same conditions to today, actually a bit cooler.
I think either Nadal takes Thiem apart pretty handidly in three or this one will be a blockbuster with Nadal winning in a five set epic.
