2017 FO SF - [4] Nadal vs [6] Thiem

Who will win this match?

  • Nadal in 3

    Votes: 26 20.0%
  • Nadal in 4

    Votes: 51 39.2%
  • Nadal in 5

    Votes: 10 7.7%
  • Thiem in 3

    Votes: 7 5.4%
  • Thiem in 4

    Votes: 25 19.2%
  • Thiem in 5

    Votes: 11 8.5%

  • Total voters
    130
  • Poll closed .
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
He wasn't facing Peak Thiem though. Wawa allowed score lines to be respectable for Nadal. Peak Thiem would crush him with bakery products. Hence ...

If Thiem manages that, it would be a travesty if he does not walk away with the title imo.
 

Tatenda

Semi-Pro
the scary thing about thiem is he likes every point to finish on his terms rather be it a winner or unforced error regardless who's serving

he can just hit that BH DTL so effortlessly almost at will without really thinking about .

Rafa needs to be at his relentless best and be all up in thiem face on every single point , with great transition from defence to attack
 

Charleneriva

Hall of Fame
Worth noting that Thiem still hasn't played a match on Chatrier! 4 matches on Lenglen and 1 on the Bullring (Court 1).

Wow. Somehow I totally missed that. But since he's in the same half with Rafa and Novak and their matches were always on the same day, it's understandable though they could have at least put him on it for once. :rolleyes:
 

ppmishra

Rookie
This will be a fascinating encounter and may depend on the conditions to an extent, but no question both will have to play at their highest level. The good news is both have plenty left in the tank, so looking forward to a great match and may the best player win. A rafa win is not a foregone conclusion by any means as some die hard fans claim. Thiem has the game and self belief, and I'm sure rafa will be on guard as he always is/ has against any opponent.
 

Demented

Semi-Pro
The wild card is that Rafa has had plenty of rest this time. He looked fatigued against Theim at Rome. His draw has been weak and he got extra rest after the withdrawl.
 
Thiem apparently was impressive. He has put himself in a good situation where he can beat Rafa. I want Rafa to win of course, but honestly i dont know, it can go either way.

If Nadal can hang deflecting Thiems shot barrage, then possible his high risk approach my hinder him. But who knows, he is playing very consistent
 

Qubax

Professional
I am 99% sure Nadal is going to win. So I won't speculate on how a Thiem win would go.

I am not confident how quickly Nadal will win, but I expect atleast 2 of the sets to be very close and difficult.

39% chance Nadal wins in 3 tight, tight sets. 7-6, 7-5, 7-6, perhaps a 6-4 or 1 break 6-3 set in there.
38% chance Nadal wins in 4 sets. 3 or 4 of which would be tight 6-7, 7-6, 6-2, 7-5 (not convinced it will the final set that is lopsided in a 4 set match)
23% chance Nadal wins in 5 sets. 3 or 4 of which would be tight 6-7, 7-5, 6-4, 6-7, 6-1 (I am more convinced of a lopsided victory in the event of a 5th set)

So yah, I don't know how it will happen. And I'm keen to find out. It will be tense, close and thrilling. But make no mistake Nadal is winning this match.
 

Qubax

Professional
I don't see it a straight sets victory for Nadal. Most likely in 4 but if Thiem steps up he is capable of doing damage and drag the match to 5 or even win it. Safest option for me is Nadal in 4.
You see in my opinion, I think we draw too many conclusions from a 3 set vs 4 set win.

A 3 set win could almost be tougher if it is 7-6, 7-6, 7-6, then 3-6, 7-5, 6-4, 6-1

I do predict ever so slightly predict that a 3 set match is more likely then a 4 set match, but if it is in straight sets it could literally be Nadal winning 7-6, 7-6, 7-6 and losing or tying the total points won in the match stat. My point here is that I think Nadal is going to win the big points. That will ultimately be the difference. When it matters Nadal will win the point.
 

Qubax

Professional
Let's hope Thiem can floor Nadal physically.
The trouble here is that Nadal had a light off-day hit around today.

Nadal will be in form, and fresh as heck. Well, not fresh as heck --- but fresh enough with a super deep gas tank to win 2 more matches

Nadal can go back to back 5-6 hour matches if necessary. It may or may not hurt his grass court season but I think the French open is a formality at this point
 

Qubax

Professional
Thiem has been great and it. will. be. a. war.

but come on, have you been watching closely? Nadal is not losing.
 

killerboi2

Hall of Fame
Thiem in 4. Not convinced by Rafa's revival. He'll likely be up against non mugs from here. If not Thiem, then Murray or Wawrinka should get the job done.
 

Qubax

Professional
He hasn't really been tested this FO though.
This is the best argument I have heard to consider that Nadal won't win.

It's a fair argument.

I think that Nadal is in pretty good form, and the trade off for not having been tested is A. He has a deep gas thank and B. Winning easily has given him a lot of confidence.

In my opinion - when it's 5-5 Deuce I expect the man going for 10 French Opens to be more clutch then Thiem.

The stage is big and I expect Nadal to manage that better.

The Thiem could "hit Nadal off the court" argument is not enough in my opinion to justify the likelihood of him winning the match.
 

icedevil0289

G.O.A.T.
the scary thing about thiem is he likes every point to finish on his terms rather be it a winner or unforced error regardless who's serving

he can just hit that BH DTL so effortlessly almost at will without really thinking about .

Rafa needs to be at his relentless best and be all up in thiem face on every single point , with great transition from defence to attack

tbh i think its thiem that has to be more "on" so to speak than rafa does
 

icedevil0289

G.O.A.T.
anyone know or would be willing to look at the stats for both going into this match? idk how much that will factor in but would be interesting to see
 

WhiskeyEE

G.O.A.T.
the scary thing about thiem is he likes every point to finish on his terms rather be it a winner or unforced error regardless who's serving

he can just hit that BH DTL so effortlessly almost at will without really thinking about .

Rafa needs to be at his relentless best and be all up in thiem face on every single point , with great transition from defence to attack

He has the unusual trait of being more aggressive in pressure situations as well. Most players are passive on big points whereas he's more comfortable being aggressive and going for a winner.
 

Qubax

Professional
anyone know or would be willing to look at the stats for both going into this match? idk how much that will factor in but would be interesting to see
Nadal's stats will be stupid good. Especially his % of winning 2nd serves (Which might be better than his % on first serves!)

That said, it is fair to say that Nadal hasn't been tested, but part of that is because Nadal is playing so well that no one can test him. The opponents that Rafa has faced would have caused Murray or Djoko a lot more trouble then they poised for Rafa. Not that his draw wouldn't have been easy for any of the top guys, but Nadal is playing so well he is making it all look so easy.
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
Let's hope Thiem can floor Nadal physically.
Rather: let's hope Thiem does not completely implode after 1 tough set. That would actually be a more plausible story line here.
Nadal is in great physical shape. No one is gonna "floor" him at this RG.
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
Thiem has been great and it. will. be. a. war.

but come on, have you been watching closely? Nadal is not losing.
Nadal has played absolute nobodies. His only respectable opponents were either completely out of form (RBA - I saw chunks of his matches so I know what I'm talking about) and Carreno-Busta who was drained after the match of his life and who couldn't even last for more than 10 games. Even despite getting hammered both RBA and Carreno-Busta broke Nadal twice in their matches. Thiem has a serve in a different league than both so Nadal won't just break him at will several times to secure 6-2 sets.

Am I the only one who's not fooled by Nadal's form? It's good but not spectacular and I think Thiem is capable of beating him. If this was 2005-2014 Nadal he'd find a way to win regardless of what Thiem brought to the table. Not in 2017 at 31 years old, he's in good form but still vulnerable against someone like Thiem who's played fantastic tennis in the last 2 months or so.
 
Last edited:

icedevil0289

G.O.A.T.
Nadal's stats will be stupid good. Especially his % of winning 2nd serves (Which might be better than his % on first serves!)

That said, it is fair to say that Nadal hasn't been tested, but part of that is because Nadal is playing so well that no one can test him. The opponents that Rafa has faced would have caused Murray or Djoko a lot more trouble then they poised for Rafa. Not that his draw wouldn't have been easy for any of the top guys, but Nadal is playing so well he is making it all look so easy.
yeah i know nadal is playing pretty well, certainly better than he has in the past few years, i just have to wonder if a small part of it is no one has been able to push him even the slightest. i'd imagine even a close three setter, or maybe stealing 1 set if he faced someone who a bit better than he has in the past. well we will see what happens on friday
 

Gazelle

G.O.A.T.
Rather: let's hope Thiem does not completely implode after 1 tough set. That would actually be a more plausible story line here.
Nadal is in great physical shape. No one is gonna "floor" him at this RG.

But if he loses, he will be injured, no? So I take it you're 100% sure he wins this RG.
 

Gazelle

G.O.A.T.
Nadal has played absolute nobodies. His only respectable opponents were either completely out of form (RBA - I saw chunks of his matches so I know what I'm talking about) and Carreno-Busta who was drained after the match of his life and who couldn't even last for more than 10 games. Even despite getting hammered both RBA and Carreno-Busta broke Nadal twice in their matches. Thiem has serve in a different league than both so Nadal won't just break him at will several times to secure 6-2 sets.

Am I the only one who's not fooled by Nadal's form? It's good but not spectacular and I think Thiem is capable of beating him. If this was 2005-2014 Nadal he'd find a way to win regardless of what Thiem brought to the table. Not in 2017 at 31 years old, he's in good form but still vulnerable against someone like Thiem who's played fantastic tennis in the last 2 months or so.

You make a lot of sense. But Nadal is a master vulturer, so I don't want to get my hopes up that he's somehow gonna lose this RG.
 

Mr.Lob

G.O.A.T.
Hoping for a Thiem win. But, Nadal too mentally tough for Thiem and looking for some payback. Nadal 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-1.
 

Newcomer

Hall of Fame
It is difficult to predict this match. On one hand, Nadal has been playing very good, but his opposition were clowns, to say something soft. In the other, Thiem has been crushing the ball all way through this point, straight-setting the current champion. To add a bit more morbo, the last match in Rome, even if Nadal was tired/depressed/heartbroken/injured/etc, was a fest for Thiem, and Rome conditions are the most similar to the ones here.

Pretty difficult to predict. I think the safe bet is Nadal in 4, but this will be a long match. I think Thiem is well prepared, without tiring matches, so he will be there at least in physical conditions.

I think this match will go the distance, and the guy remaining in the other side of the draw can take advantage in the final. If it is Wawrinka, I am fine with it. If it is Murray, please kill me: throw a toaster connected to the power outlet when I am taking a bath :D



I dont think so, in fact I think that will be a problem for Nadal, unless Eufemiano is giving him "advice" again. Thiem is one of the fittest guys in the tour, he is younger and he barely has break a sweat this RG. In worst situation for Thiem, both will be fresh or both tired in a long match
Lol, what? Rome has a VERY low bounce. It's pretty much a red hardcourt. That's the reason why hard hitters like Djokovic like it more than other clay courts. Closest to RG is Monte Carlo.
 
T

Tiki-Taka

Guest
You make a lot of sense. But Nadal is a master vulturer, so I don't want to get my hopes up that he's somehow gonna lose this RG.
Was it all vulturing on nine occasions he won this tournament?
 
Top