2017 FO SF - [4] Nadal vs [6] Thiem

Who will win this match?

  • Nadal in 3

    Votes: 26 20.0%
  • Nadal in 4

    Votes: 51 39.2%
  • Nadal in 5

    Votes: 10 7.7%
  • Thiem in 3

    Votes: 7 5.4%
  • Thiem in 4

    Votes: 25 19.2%
  • Thiem in 5

    Votes: 11 8.5%

  • Total voters
    130
  • Poll closed .
Seeing this sorry state of affairs with the so called young guns like Theim, i can't help but sympathize with the likes of Nishikori and others of his ilk. They have been just plain unlucky not to win more titles. Theim had no theme to his game except to bash the daylights out of the ball. Even Kyrgios is more creative at his (rare) best. Does Theim have a coach in his retinue?
 

Nadalgaenger

G.O.A.T.
Well you tried your best Dominic but there's no shame in losing to Nadal on PC. Your time will come one day but in the meantime congrats on an excellent clay court season and all the best for the rest of the year. :)
THIS.
There is zero shame in being bullied at the FO by the King of Clay. Only 2 guys have managed the impossible (really only one since Nadal was a shadow of himself in 2015).
 

Nadalgaenger

G.O.A.T.
Basically bounce height on Chatrier; Rome was much lower and more balls in the Thiem wheelhouse. Against Nadal today Thiem's forehand was forced into a more spinny shot that could not get through the court. On backhand Thiem was screwed for the same reason and if he dared slice generally Rafa gobbled those balls up. Thiem tried hitting the backhand bloop down the line, but Rafa took those cross court with great effectiveness. Thiem sadly was very gassed by the 3rd set and you could see this in his drooping first serve percentage.:confused: Thiem will have more stamina, more serve, and more strength to handle high balls next year and the years after. He'd have to have the game to straight set Rafa because he only played two decent sets this year and I don't see that being 4 by next year.:(
Rest assured: Nadal will NOT maintain this level for much longer. Thiem will lift this trophy one day. Hopefully next year.
 

Gary Duane

Talk Tennis Guru
Rest assured: Nadal will NOT maintain this level for much longer. Thiem will lift this trophy one day. Hopefully next year.
Yes, Nadal can't maintain this level much longer - maybe for the rest of this year. Playing anything like this again in 2018 would be beyond belief. Very unlikely because of age.

But we have to look at the age of the last four, everyone over age 30 except for Thiem. It's time to stop saying that everyone younger is weak, time to accept that players are going to be at the top for way longer.

It should be a wake-up call that Stan looked strongest in the last set today, after four hours or so. We expect stamina and recovery to do in players over the age of 30. When it doesn't, they have the advantage because of experience, tactics, tennis IQ.
 

ppmishra

Rookie
Thiem hits 87mph average FOREHAND and 83mph BACKHAND. If Thiem can drop that forehand mph to around 80mph and keep the reserves like Rafa does, and the backhand have more shape and drop it down to about 80mph. He can then be more patience and wait for the right ball to redline. I think its very poor just to keep bashing the ball.
He forgot that he was not playing at Rome. To be honest, he started out very well. The first set was a bit of a battle as they usually have been against rafa but I could not believe how early he was pulling the trigger. Bit of a headscratcher to me, but he will learn from this. He has to find the right balance and I think he will, not just on clay but on hard. The jury is still out on grass because of his huge windup, but he has the talent and can take the ball early and in fact return big serves quite well.
Wishing him the best for the future.
 

ppmishra

Rookie
Yes, Nadal can't maintain this level much longer - maybe for the rest of this year. Playing anything like this again in 2018 would be beyond belief. Very unlikely because of age.

But we have to look at the age of the last four, everyone over age 30 except for Thiem. It's time to stop saying that everyone younger is weak, time to accept that players are going to be at the top for way longer.

It should be a wake-up call that Stan looked strongest in the last set today, after four hours or so. We expect stamina and recovery to do in players over the age of 30. When it doesn't, they have the advantage because of experience, tactics, tennis IQ.
To be honest, stan had a lot left in the tank before the match started, but he finished the last set strongly because he was the aggressor (with the right balance). Andy played great tennis but lost his legs because he was chasing down everything. But to your point, no question 30 + is the new 20 + (or maybe 23+) for those professionals who train the right way and have a great support team.
 
He forgot that he was not playing at Rome. To be honest, he started out very well. The first set was a bit of a battle as they usually have been against rafa but I could not believe how early he was pulling the trigger. Bit of a headscratcher to me, but he will learn from this. He has to find the right balance and I think he will, not just on clay but on hard. The jury is still out on grass because of his huge windup, but he has the talent and can take the ball early and in fact return big serves quite well.
Wishing him the best for the future.
I hope that Theim turns out to be a late bloomer aka Fed. He does show promise, but he needs to tune up that game of his. I also wonder, whether there is a different ring to the evolution of tennis players today? Compared to the players of the millennium, the players from the 70's, 80's, 90's had more success early on (less than 25 years) -think Connors, Borg, McEnroe, Becker, Edberg, Wilander, Sampras, Agassi. They were considered to in their prime between 21-25.
 

Dolgopolov85

G.O.A.T.
Too busy facepalming at all Thiem's forehand unforced errors. I get that he probably felt pressured to go for too much, but something was off today.
Maybe Thiem realised early on that he would have to climb a mountain, literally. He was jumping way up into the air for every shot and this in spite of his court position. If Nadal didn't come across as so impressive as maybe in 12/13, it was more because his cruise mode was enough. Sure he was shanking here and there but at other times he was absolutely destroying Thiem so the match was completely on his racquet. I could only watch the first set and parts of the second but I remember they measured one Nadal forehand winner at 4.5/4.8 k rpm. Stan and Murray's winners were measured at 3.5 k time and time again. And it's not like Nadal moonballs to get that RPM contrary to the myth his detractors love to perpetrate. Even when he's crushing it, he's still maintaining a high RPM. What this amounts to is the high inside out forehand is a very high percentage shot for him and he will hit it for a winner 9 out of 10 times. I saw both Stan and Murray miss it on a number of occasions. So how do you stop Nadal for hitting that shot? By pushing him to his forehand corner which for a rightie means taking on his cross court forehand with the backhand. I don't know why people are hoping against hope and am literally laughing at the posts that predicted a Thiem win. We have seen this movie before and so many times. Not GCOAT for nothing. It will take a miracle for Stan to beat him as well. I am chuffed that I got the final I wanted but as much as I'd like Stan to win, my bets are on Nadal.
 
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ppmishra

Rookie
I hope that Theim turns out to be a late bloomer aka Fed. He does show promise, but he needs to tune up that game of his. I also wonder, whether there is a different ring to the evolution of tennis players today? Compared to the players of the millennium, the players from the 70's, 80's, 90's had more success early on (less than 25 years) -think Connors, Borg, McEnroe, Becker, Edberg, Wilander, Sampras, Agassi. They were considered to in their prime between 21-25.
Thiem has been called Wawrinka 2.0 with good reason, and I would add look at his recent success since he turned 29.
I'm not saying he has to wait until then, but I think he will make his move in a few years by 25-26 no question.
No question, players are maturing later in their careers.
 
Thiem has been called Wawrinka 2.0 with good reason, and I would add look at his recent success since he turned 29.
I'm not saying he has to wait until then, but I think he will make his move in a few years by 25-26 no question.
No question, players are maturing later in their careers.
Only if he modifies his game to curtail the mindless ball bashing. Theim had a good chance yesterday, having tremendous confidence of knocking out Djoker, but he was completely bereft of a game plan against Nadal. To me, even his technique still looks raw, given his propensity to spray the shots all over. I feel he needs a good retired Pro to tone it up for him.
 

Sentinel

Bionic Poster
Rafa is a poker player. He played possum in Rome and Thiem put all his cards on the table so Rafa was ready for him today when it matters more. As some have said, it was probably a blessing in disguise that Rafa didn't go all the way to the final in Rome because he would not have had any down time before going to RG to train before the tournament started.
So he tanked Rome ?
That is very unprofessional and amounts to cheating. He should be fined for this, or even suspended for a few months.
 

disgruntledamsel

Professional
Serious question to all you who thought Thiem would win this: what weapons does he have to defeat Nadal? Name one thing he does better on this court than Nadal (besides losing)??
Did you catch McEnroe saying within the first couple of games that Thiem was the better mover?!? I almost spit my drink out. Where does he come up with this stuff? I mean he said it with half hearted conviction based on Thiem's age blah blah blah blah....but still! Just No.. Nadal gets to everything. I guess even he was spitballing trying to come up with something....anything...that Thiem does better. You have to surprise him and then front run like nobody's business to win against him.
 

disgruntledamsel

Professional
you guys coming with your own conclusions over and over again. I never said he is the same spring chicken he was in 2008. But as long as he is injury free and fit he is still the best grinder out there on clay. Don't be so hooked at age, sports have come a long way.
Plus, it's his anticipation because this is his house...he's always where he needs to be on the court. On Chatrier, he is one with the court. It's simply tough action to beat him here.
 

cc0509

Talk Tennis Guru
*shrugs* maybe so, some of your posts suggest otherwise.

I'm not much of a Djokovic fan but that never stopped me from realizing that he's an ATG who achieved great results and if I thought he was going to win a match or tournament I said so. My dislike of his on court persona didn't prevent me from analyzing his matches properly like it seems to do with so many people on this forum with their favorites or players they dislike.
 

icedevil0289

G.O.A.T.
I'm not much of a Djokovic fan but that never stopped me from realizing that he's an ATG who achieved great results and if I thought he was going to win a match or tournament I said so. My dislike of his on court persona didn't prevent me from analyzing his matches properly like it seems to do with so many people on this forum with their favorites or players they dislike.
maybe but you seem to greatly emphasize rafa's lack of form at rg 2015 for some reason. never said you didn't give players their complete due, just dont think its always coming 100% from a place of objectivity
 

cc0509

Talk Tennis Guru
maybe but you seem to greatly emphasize rafa's lack of form at rg 2015 for some reason. never said you didn't give players their complete due, just dont think its always coming 100% from a place of objectivity

It has nothing to do with my place of objectivity. Nadal was in terrible form in 2015 just as Djokovic is in terrible form in 2017. I go week by week, year by year and observe how each player is actually playing out there and try not to let my personal biases enter the whole thing and certainly don't use stats to dictate my predictions. That's hard to do for many fans. Look at most of the fans on this forum for example. I like Stan's tennis a lot and would love him to win the title but I can't see it happening this year. Next year, who knows.
 

disgruntledamsel

Professional
Ok, I'll have a go. It's tough to explain to someone else, but it is usually used as an expression of encouragement. It encourages a person to become involved in a situation in which they have a good chance of success.
Example:
A: "Just asked out that hot brunette from my Spanish class"
B: "Awesome! Get in there, my son!" (congratulatory)
Sounds like it means "Engage!"
 

icedevil0289

G.O.A.T.
It has nothing to do with my place of objectivity. Nadal was in terrible form in 2015 just as Djokovic is in terrible form in 2017. I go week by week, year by year and observe how each player is actually playing out there and try not to let my personal biases enter the whole thing and certainly don't use stats to dictate my predictions. That's hard to do for many fans. Look at most of the fans on this forum for example. I like Stan's tennis a lot and would love him to win the title but I can't see it happening this year. Next year, who knows.
you sure like toot your own horn, I'll say. my main point was you sure liked to harp rafa's bad form as an indication for why novak was able to beat him but nvm we are going in circles here.

well we can agree stan winning is a long shot
 

MichaelNadal

Bionic Poster
It has nothing to do with my place of objectivity. Nadal was in terrible form in 2015 just as Djokovic is in terrible form in 2017. I go week by week, year by year and observe how each player is actually playing out there and try not to let my personal biases enter the whole thing and certainly don't use stats to dictate my predictions. That's hard to do for many fans. Look at most of the fans on this forum for example. I like Stan's tennis a lot and would love him to win the title but I can't see it happening this year. Next year, who knows.

Always on point with your thoughts :)
 

cc0509

Talk Tennis Guru
you sure like toot your own horn, I'll say. my main point was you sure liked to harp rafa's bad form as an indication for why novak was able to beat him but nvm we are going in circles here.

well we can agree stan winning is a long shot

But Nadal's bad form was the reason Novak was able to beat him at the FO in 2015 just as if Novak and Nadal met at the FO this year it wouldn't be close due to Novak's bad form. See? Objective.

As for Stan vs Nadal, yes I think Stan will have his work cut out for him. Either way, I'll be happy with the result whereas if Nadal wins, most fans on here will be despondent. ;)
 

icedevil0289

G.O.A.T.
But Nadal's bad form was the reason Novak was able to beat him at the FO in 2015 just as if Novak and Nadal met at the FO this year it wouldn't be close due to Novak's bad form. See? Objective.

As for Stan vs Nadal, yes I think Stan will have his work cut out for him. Either way I'll be happy with the result.

hmm not sure it quite works the same way, but w/e this is headache inducing.
 

cc0509

Talk Tennis Guru
Always on point with your thoughts :)

Not always for sure but I try. Thanks buddy.

I hope I'm not off with my Nadal beating Stan prediction and don't end up looking silly. :oops: I don't think it's going to be the battle most people think but we'll see. I do think Stan will be a better battle for Nadal than Thiem was but Nadal should prevail in straights or four. Stan may even win the first set.

What do you think?
 

Dolgopolov85

G.O.A.T.
It has nothing to do with my place of objectivity. Nadal was in terrible form in 2015 just as Djokovic is in terrible form in 2017. I go week by week, year by year and observe how each player is actually playing out there and try not to let my personal biases enter the whole thing and certainly don't use stats to dictate my predictions. That's hard to do for many fans. Look at most of the fans on this forum for example. I like Stan's tennis a lot and would love him to win the title but I can't see it happening this year. Next year, who knows.

I was not aware until now that Nadal's form in 2015 was really a point of contention. He was completely out of sorts that year. Even in 2014, he shrugged off a not so strong clay tune up to beat Djokovic at RG but 2015 was just horrible.
 

cc0509

Talk Tennis Guru
hmm not sure it quite works the same way, but w/e this is headache inducing.

LOL. Let's just watch the final and see what happens and not worry so much about which player wins what. I think you worry too much about Nadal and his position vs Federer. If Nadal wins #15, he will still have to win four more slam to surpass Federer. Not easy at his age. Federer is the GOAT or closest thing to it IMO.
 

Dolgopolov85

G.O.A.T.
hmm not sure it quite works the same way, but w/e this is headache inducing.

Didn't you say something like Nadal's game is so headache inducing upthread? So I am not sure you are able to look at this from a detached viewpoint. Nadal is now 101-2 in BO5 on clay. You CANNOT play that down. It is not an exaggeration at this point to say only Nadal can beat himself at Chatrier.
 

cc0509

Talk Tennis Guru
I was not aware until now that Nadal's form in 2015 was really a point of contention. He was completely out of sorts that year. Even in 2014, he shrugged off a not so strong clay tune up to beat Djokovic at RG but 2015 was just horrible.

Well then you haven't been paying attention to some of the ludicrous theories on this forum! :) So many posters have tried to argue that Nadal in 2015 was in good form (most of them Djokovic fans and ardent Federer fans who hate Nadal.) It would be like trying to argue now that Djokovic isn't in terrible form which some fans were actually trying to convince others of a week ago. There are posters on this forum who actually thought that if Djokovic and Nadal met in the SF, Djokovic in his terrible form would have had a chance this year. OY! :rolleyes: That's why I'm saying most fans find it really hard to analyze things properly.
 
That doesn't change the fact that neither prefer clay. I never said anything about 90s style clay specialists. It is possible for players to be competent on all surfaces, but prefer clay. It has just rarely happened.

Since about 2005, literally no top player preferred clay besides Nadal, Ferrer, and Soderling (who, conveniently for Nadal, had to retire young) until Wawrinka became a top player in 2014 and then recently Thiem.

Federer - Prefers hard court and grass
Murray - Prefers hard court and grass
Novak - Prefers hard court and (imo) grass
Del Potro - Prefers hard court and grass
Berdych - Prefers hard court and grass
Nishikori - Prefers hard court
Tsonga - Prefers hard court and grass
Raonic - Prefers hard court and grass
Davydenko - Preferred hard court
Roddick - Preferred hard court and grass
Hewitt - Preferred hard court and grass
etc.

Soderling - Preferred clay, but retired like 2 years after hitting his prime
Ferrer - Prefers clay, but is useless against top players

It's pretty obvious how lucky Nadal has been.

Just Rubbish!:rolleyes:
 

Dolgopolov85

G.O.A.T.
Well then you haven't been paying attention to some of the ludicrous theories on this forum! :) So many posters have tried to argue that Nadal in 2015 was in good form (most of them Djokovic fans and ardent Federer fans who hate Nadal.) It would be like trying to argue now that Djokovic isn't in terrible form which some fans were actually trying to convince others of a week ago. There are posters on this forum who actually thought that if Djokovic and Nadal met in the SF, Djokovic in his terrible form would have had a chance this year. OY! :rolleyes: That's why I'm saying most fans find it really hard to analyze things properly.

Being honest, I am not a huge Nadal fan either but it's very obvious that his level is up this year. He has done better in the HC swing than in years and was always going to draw a lot of confidence from that. About the only scenario I can see is somewhat like AO 2014 where Stan plays lights out in the first set and stuns him and this upsets his self belief. But I don't know why that would, he's in a good place mentally now. Did all the right things in the AO final and was so close to wresting the final break back from Fed. Why would he not step into Chatrier full of confidence on Sunday! Yeah, don't see Djokovic in his current form beating Nadal. There's no point talking about 2011/12 Djokovic. Djokovic had plenty of shots at Nadal in RG and could only get him in his worst year at the tournament.
 

icedevil0289

G.O.A.T.
LOL. Let's just watch the final and see what happens and not worry so much about which player wins what. I think you worry too much about Nadal and his position vs Federer. If Nadal wins #15, he will still have to win four more slam to surpass Federer. Not easy at his age. Federer is the GOAT or closest thing to it IMO.

cries to many memories of rafa fans screaming h2h, *********, weak era, has seriously colored my view. well i will say one thing, i will watch this one with much more ease than the AO final because i dont have too many expectations. idt anywhere in my posts have made it seem like i favor stan to win in any capacity.
 
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icedevil0289

G.O.A.T.
Didn't you say something like Nadal's game is so headache inducing upthread? So I am not sure you are able to look at this from a detached viewpoint. Nadal is now 101-2 in BO5 on clay. You CANNOT play that down. It is not an exaggeration at this point to say only Nadal can beat himself at Chatrier.

did I? i said i didnt like it, idk if thats teh same as headache inducing
 

icedevil0289

G.O.A.T.
I was not aware until now that Nadal's form in 2015 was really a point of contention. He was completely out of sorts that year. Even in 2014, he shrugged off a not so strong clay tune up to beat Djokovic at RG but 2015 was just horrible.

idt i was arguing necessarily about whether rafa was on form or not, i realize post 2015, he wasnt the same anymore, lmao wasnt it lik the first time he was being beat on clay by teh very same people he used to beat. tbh my head hurts so idek remember what i was arguing about, more general things in regards to being objective or not. idk, it just drives me nuts when posters themselves like to brag about and give posting credits and go on about how fans of players are so delusional/biased and they are not and clearly in my own, very fail way, was trying to argue that.
 

jussumman

Hall of Fame
Not always for sure but I try. Thanks buddy.

I hope I'm not off with my Nadal beating Stan prediction and don't end up looking silly. :oops: I don't think it's going to be the battle most people think but we'll see. I do think Stan will be a better battle for Nadal than Thiem was but Nadal should prevail in straights or four. Stan may even win the first set.

What do you think?

Jumping into your conversation.. I agree with this prediction, but it should no longer be as shocking if Wawrinka wins by some combination of Stanimal level play and some loss of self belief by Nadal. Stan is 3-0 in Finals and is a big stage player who has beaten Nadal at the slower HC surface. His chances are not zero like every other player. 20%?
 

ruerooo

Legend
doesn't seem like people are appreciating the uptick on bh & serve by Nadal....and forehand locked in as match went on

I am appreciating! I read several interviews Carlos gave (though Jeebus knows how he found the time, though OTOH he must've been constantly hounded for them and the ones he gave were probably a percentage of the ones he asked for) on their work on those specific things, and how hard he & Rafa worked for the incremental improvement on those specific things.

So yes! Appreciated! (Especially as a longtime Rafa fan sick to death of hearing about how he "needed to improve his serve". Not hearing too much about that now :D _
 

ruerooo

Legend
So he tanked Rome ?
That is very unprofessional and amounts to cheating. He should be fined for this, or even suspended for a few months.

I hope you're just baiting fans.

Or having complete amnesia about the calendar.

In Rome, Rafa had just won three tournaments - Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid - and played his way to the final of a 4th. That's ... 20-something matches ..?

That's a lot of matches..

That's nobody's "tanking". That's "my butt is dragging because I just a 10th historic title in two tournaments and another for the 8th time and I'm dog tired".

You're ... usually a lot more rational than that.

:eek::oops:o_O
 

cc0509

Talk Tennis Guru
cries to many memories of rafa fans screaming h2h, *********, weak era, has seriously colored my view. well i will say one thing, i will watch this one with much more ease than the AO final because i dont have too many expectations. idt anywhere in my posts have made it seem like i favor stan to win in any capacity.

Ignore those idiots.
 

jussumman

Hall of Fame
Um ... what this?

Huh?

Gyr62DK.png
 

ruerooo

Legend
Nadal at least before 2009 still had some good runs on HC and grass

Yeah, there was that final in '08 on grass after he'd made 2 consecutive finals at the same grass Slam against some other finalist.

Um .. who'd he beat again? Some five-time (at the time) champion??

Yeah. Pretty good.

*facepalm*

Seriously, dude. Your expectations for "how good" DT "should" be are kind of off the charts

:rolleyes:o_O
 

ruerooo

Legend


Yes, okay, that's very cute, but it's kind of bereft of context.

It looks much less "I AM UNDEFEATED" if whoever you are throwing that ENORMOUS gif at also remembers that - unlike the others crowding the Grand Slam ranks between 2003 and now - that those he won are also the only Grand Slam finals he actually MADE.

:rolleyes::rolleyes:
 

cc0509

Talk Tennis Guru
Jumping into your conversation.. I agree with this prediction, but it should no longer be as shocking if Wawrinka wins by some combination of Stanimal level play and some loss of self belief by Nadal. Stan is 3-0 in Finals and is a big stage player who has beaten Nadal at the slower HC surface. His chances are not zero like every other player. 20%?

I would agree that Stan probably has a 20% chance. More than all other players who were in the draw but still not enough to get the job done. I'll be very surprised if Stan wins.
 

jussumman

Hall of Fame
Yes, okay, that's very cute, but it's kind of bereft of context.

It looks much less "I AM UNDEFEATED" if whoever you are throwing that ENORMOUS gif at also remembers that - unlike the others crowding the Grand Slam ranks between 2003 and now - that those he won are also the only Grand Slam finals he actually MADE.

:rolleyes::rolleyes:

Its more like badass than cute. Not sure what part of the bigger stage (finals) the bigger Wawrinka plays. I can't help you understand.
 

Dolgopolov85

G.O.A.T.
idt i was arguing necessarily about whether rafa was on form or not, i realize post 2015, he wasnt the same anymore, lmao wasnt it lik the first time he was being beat on clay by teh very same people he used to beat. tbh my head hurts so idek remember what i was arguing about, more general things in regards to being objective or not. idk, it just drives me nuts when posters themselves like to brag about and give posting credits and go on about how fans of players are so delusional/biased and they are not and clearly in my own, very fail way, was trying to argue that.

You said above that cc0509 was harping on Nadal's bad form as the reason Djokovic beat him in 2015. I don't see how that is disparaging to Djokovic. It is what it is. Do you think Stakhovksy beat a peakest-peak Fed at Wimbledon?
 

Gary Duane

Talk Tennis Guru
To be honest, stan had a lot left in the tank before the match started, but he finished the last set strongly because he was the aggressor (with the right balance). Andy played great tennis but lost his legs because he was chasing down everything. But to your point, no question 30 + is the new 20 + (or maybe 23+) for those professionals who train the right way and have a great support team.
Stan was certainly playing an aggressive kind of tennis, making both errors and winners left and right, and when someone plays that style of tennis and ends up with more winners, it is impressive.

Even so, the guy is a monster. I don't know why everyone doesn't call him Diesel. The moment I found out that this is Fed's nickname for him, I thought it was perfect.
 
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