JohnnyMac Fan!
Legend
Because of the lack of play Nadal is not dialed in, he can be beaten. I am cautiously optimistic
100% does not exist in sport. Let's say I'm 99% confident that a) you are overestimating Thiem's chances and b) Murray/Wawa are even less likely than Thiem to stop Nadal from biting that yummy trophy on SundayBut if he loses, he will be injured, no? So I take it you're 100% sure he wins this RG.
Ha ha mind reader. I was just going to reply that !!!!Anything can happen this year. Except Murray winning the French Open. Oh scratch that, he could win a final if it's against Thiem.
But I highly doubt they are better on clay than Federer and Djokovic despite different preferences.His biggest competition all 9 times were players who prefer grass and hard court. So yes.
Funny enough, this is the first year his biggest competition (Thiem and Stan) prefer clay.
Because of the lack of play Nadal is not dialed in, he can be beaten. I am cautiously optimistic
The first set will be crucial for Thiem - that's where the match will be won or lost. No-one has ever come from a set down to beat Rafa at Roland Garros and he's proving to be a particularly good front-runner this tournament.
But even if Thiem does win the first set, he cannot afford to drop his level because Nadal won't. Nadal won't go anywhere in this match, you have to beat him outright. And he knows that if he gets off to a fast start he can overwhelm his opponents.
The key for Thiem will be to hold his opening few service games confidently & establish some rhythm before trying to attack Rafa's serve. No real "key to the match" for Rafa, he just needs to do what he always does and execute successfully.
Lol, what? Rome has a VERY low bounce. It's pretty much a red hardcourt. That's the reason why hard hitters like Djokovic like it more than other clay courts. Closest to RG is Monte Carlo.
too much rest is not good for momentumHe has enough tennis in him I believe over the last 2 months and to be this rested is exactly what he needs now.
I don't know if he will win after what I saw today , the mentality of thiem were every point played ends on his terms how do you deal with that?
What do you think nadal tells himself when walking out on court vs thiem
Do you think he genuinely will believe he might lose
or he will feel he should handle thiem , with whatever effort is required?
i think sf at this tournament last year. funny enough lost to novak in straight sets.I said Nadal in 4. I wonder if the lack of a quarterfinal is good or not for Rafa. No-one to push him to a higher level, he will have to adjust fast.
What's the furthest Thiem has gone at a major? I know he's best on clay, I'm just wondering if he has 5 sets in him. We all know Rafa does.
If Thiem indeed beats Nadal it could be a changing of the guard moment at RG. He is one player who can win this tournament multiple times if he stays fit.
This year is the first time Nadal has faced a true top clay court player (Thiem) since 2005 (Coria). Federer and Djokovic are legends but not exactly clay court specialists, their shots not heavy enough for the clay, having to rely too much on painting the lines to beat Nadal. Thiem is the first topspin monster since the appearance of Rafa in 2005, let's see how this clash with the new guard goes. A pity though the past decade didn't have the clay court depth of the nineties.
So, the 2 games PCB won today were by breaking Nadal's serve? LMAO. I think then this match will be more even that I thought, even if Thiem is not exactly Djokovic returning the serve....
You know it's funny that you say this.You can just feel all the obvious Federer fans and Fed fans in disguise desperate for someone to beat Nadal![]()
To be an "specialist" is not so relevant. The most important thing is how good you are playing a particular surface. Both Djokovic and Federer are far better clay players than many clay "specialists" in the 90s like Moyá, Corretja or Chang.
You know it's funny that you say this.
I am a huge Federer fan and two of my friends are big Fed fans as well and we are all cheering for Nadal and against Djokovic at this French Open.
I think as Fed fans we have grown to respect Nadal more. He is a year older then Djoko, burst onto the scene earlier and is more of a contemporary of Fed in the first half of his career.
Sure we don't want to see anyone catch Fed in slams. But now that Fed is at 18 slams with a decent shot at adding 19 before the end of the year, we are okay with Rafa adding #15.
Our biggest fear is getting Djoko to 13 and allowing him to get on a run where he blasts past both Nadal and Federer in the next couple of years.
If it was Fed vs Nadal (as it was in the AO17 final I was completely and utterly cheering for Fed and wanting Nadal to DIE), but I think many Fed fans have grown to respect and dare I say like Rafa a bit - especially as both Roger/Rafa fan bases jointly hate Djokovic.
I'd love to respect Rafa (he has many admirable attributes), but his regular cheating and false humbalito acts make that impossible for me.
He has the same return % on clay as Djoko in any case : 31% and he serves a lot better but compared to Rafa's stats... ouch.So, the 2 games PCB won today were by breaking Nadal's serve? LMAO. I think then this match will be more even that I thought, even if Thiem is not exactly Djokovic returning the serve....
Because of the lack of play Nadal is not dialed in, he can be beaten. I am cautiously optimistic
This year is the first time Nadal has faced a true top clay court player (Thiem) since 2005 (Coria).
You know it's funny that you say this.
I am a huge Federer fan and two of my friends are big Fed fans as well and we are all cheering for Nadal and against Djokovic at this French Open.
I think as Fed fans we have grown to respect Nadal more. He is a year older then Djoko, burst onto the scene earlier and is more of a contemporary of Fed in the first half of his career.
Sure we don't want to see anyone catch Fed in slams. But now that Fed is at 18 slams with a decent shot at adding 19 before the end of the year, we are okay with Rafa adding #15.
Our biggest fear is getting Djoko to 13 and allowing him to get on a run where he blasts past both Nadal and Federer in the next couple of years.
If it was Fed vs Nadal (as it was in the AO17 final I was completely and utterly cheering for Fed and wanting Nadal to DIE), but I think many Fed fans have grown to respect and dare I say like Rafa a bit - especially as both Roger/Rafa fan bases jointly hate Djokovic.
Sounds about right, hope you're wrong thoughNadal in 4.
3 tough and 1 easy.
You're setting yourself up for a disappointment if you think this is the case. Nadal is back, including his otherwordly stamina. If anyone tires out, it's Thiem. Now that doesn't mean, Nadal can't be beaten. But it won't be because he tires out after Thiem wins one of the first 2.I'm not sure NADAL can go 5 sets with Thiem. Come on, Nadal is 31 years old, the times where he could just go toe to toe with his rivals and they will fold eventually in the 5th set are over. If Thiem wins one of the first 2 sets I think the upset is on.
Well done, post of the thread.Impressive win by Thiem today. He really hit through Novak.
My overall assessment of Thiem is that he still struggles with knowing what to do at the right times with his court positioning and shot selection. Sometimes squeezes the trigger a little too early, sometimes gets too far behind the baseline, especially on his backhand wing resulting in errors he otherwise would not make (he netted a lot today, because he hit his backhand late). I think he has such a heavy ground game that it'd suit his game if he went for bigger margins and better point construction. The lower amount of winners he'd hit as a result, would be compensated by fewer UEs and more FEs from the opponent as well. Although you have to keep in mind a one-handed backhand is more tailored towards generating acceleration and power than towards obtaining stability. But if Wawrinka and Gasquet can do it with their racket take-back, so should he.
I can't really figure out how Thiem should play Nadal tomorrow. I think Nadal is too solid defensively for him to just crush the ball at every opportunity he gets. Even though Nadal's defense hasn't really been tested, it's also the signal it sends to Nadal: "I know I can't fight with you, so I'm just going to go all out". Nadal feeds off that, unless the unlikely God-mode Soderling performance takes place.
I think Thiem is solid enough at the moment to mix it up. Drag out some rallies, make Nadal work. Finish off some rallies quickly, get close to that baseline. Thiem has to try to force the errors out of Nadal and not only try to blast winners past him.
Some things to note:
-Thiem's favourite kick serve on the ad court is going to go up high to Nadal's FH, which isn't going to trouble Nadal as much as it would others
- Look for both to serve in a way to set up their FHs. The one who manages to hit their forehand the most times after their serves is likely to double his odds of winning: ala the one who manages to direct their returns to the oponnents backhand the most times will have a clear advantage. The higher the first serve % the easier this will be
- What will Thiem do to get out of Nadal's forehand lockdown of his backhand side? Will he stand far back and hit his BH back cross court or will he risk by taking it earlier and/or redirect the ball to neutralize?
- Nadal hasn't faced a guy with Thiem's firepower so far. Will he be able to do his trademark passing shots when he's on the defensive? (This also begs the question: when and how much should Thiem approach the net? A question a certain Swiss has had a hard time answering for a lot of years) If Nadal makes some of these it means he's moving well and getting a read on Thiem's offense. It'll fire Nadal up, as well as make Thiem go for smaller margins, prompting more mistakes
Conditions are also looking pretty good for Thiem. Weather forecast says same conditions to today, actually a bit cooler.
I think either Nadal takes Thiem apart pretty handidly in three or this one will be a blockbuster with Nadal winning in a five set epic.
I said Nadal in 4. I wonder if the lack of a quarterfinal is good or not for Rafa. No-one to push him to a higher level, he will have to adjust fast.
What's the furthest Thiem has gone at a major? I know he's best on clay, I'm just wondering if he has 5 sets in him. We all know Rafa does.
The Nadal camp has identified Thiem as the most dangerous hurdle left in the draw for Rafa. Right on the mark imo.Nadal has been doing this since 05. Rest is WAY more important than tough matches at this point. I highly doubt he's taking Thiem lightly.
I heard that Nadal's team would have been more happy if Djokovic is the opponent. But now both Moya and Toni are a bit worry that Thiem is playing very high level.I think Rafa could be surprised by Thiems level and strength. Both Moya and Toni very much aware that Thiem is the guy on clay this year so Rafa is as ready as possible can be, but he hasnt played against this kind of force for a long time, as I believe Thiem is playing his best clay tennis he has ever done right now.
Wind, court and weather I dont believe are any factor this match.
Then we have the mental aspect that can turn it around though. Maybe Thiem doesnt play his best he will not win. But if he does, he has a chance!!!
THiem in 3, djokovic did nothing wrong in todays game, thiem makes very less errors...nadal will be dethroned
I am going with the upset. Thiem in four! I think Nadal just hasn't been challenge enough. I am expecting the good thiem to show up.
Thiem Goffin was around 4 hours and 4 sets. Thiem definitely can bring it for 4 sets no problemo.For tennis' sakes, I'll be happy with either outcome. I'm not sure Thiem has the energy to go 4 hours with Nadal over five sets. I think they go 2-2 and then in the fifth set... Thiem gets gassed.
Nadal in 5.
You gotta go for Thiem!Happy either way with the winner. Hyped for this one.
Excellent analysis. I concur.Impressive win by Thiem today. He really hit through Novak.
My overall assessment of Thiem is that he still struggles with knowing what to do at the right times with his court positioning and shot selection. Sometimes squeezes the trigger a little too early, sometimes gets too far behind the baseline, especially on his backhand wing resulting in errors he otherwise would not make (he netted a lot today, because he hit his backhand late). I think he has such a heavy ground game that it'd suit his game if he went for bigger margins and better point construction. The lower amount of winners he'd hit as a result, would be compensated by fewer UEs and more FEs from the opponent as well. Although you have to keep in mind a one-handed backhand is more tailored towards generating acceleration and power than towards obtaining stability. But if Wawrinka and Gasquet can do it with their racket take-back, so should he.
I can't really figure out how Thiem should play Nadal tomorrow. I think Nadal is too solid defensively for him to just crush the ball at every opportunity he gets. Even though Nadal's defense hasn't really been tested, it's also the signal it sends to Nadal: "I know I can't fight with you, so I'm just going to go all out". Nadal feeds off that, unless the unlikely God-mode Soderling performance takes place.
I think Thiem is solid enough at the moment to mix it up. Drag out some rallies, make Nadal work. Finish off some rallies quickly, get close to that baseline. Thiem has to try to force the errors out of Nadal and not only try to blast winners past him.
Some things to note:
-Thiem's favourite kick serve on the ad court is going to go up high to Nadal's FH, which isn't going to trouble Nadal as much as it would others
- Look for both to serve in a way to set up their FHs. The one who manages to hit their forehand the most times after their serves is likely to double his odds of winning: ala the one who manages to direct their returns to the oponnents backhand the most times will have a clear advantage. The higher the first serve % the easier this will be
- What will Thiem do to get out of Nadal's forehand lockdown of his backhand side? Will he stand far back and hit his BH back cross court or will he risk by taking it earlier and/or redirect the ball to neutralize?
- Nadal hasn't faced a guy with Thiem's firepower so far. Will he be able to do his trademark passing shots when he's on the defensive? (This also begs the question: when and how much should Thiem approach the net? A question a certain Swiss has had a hard time answering for a lot of years) If Nadal makes some of these it means he's moving well and getting a read on Thiem's offense. It'll fire Nadal up, as well as make Thiem go for smaller margins, prompting more mistakes
Conditions are also looking pretty good for Thiem. Weather forecast says same conditions to today, actually a bit cooler.
I think either Nadal takes Thiem apart pretty handidly in three or this one will be a blockbuster with Nadal winning in a five set epic.