2017 FO SF - [4] Nadal vs [6] Thiem

Who will win this match?

  • Nadal in 3

    Votes: 26 20.0%
  • Nadal in 4

    Votes: 51 39.2%
  • Nadal in 5

    Votes: 10 7.7%
  • Thiem in 3

    Votes: 7 5.4%
  • Thiem in 4

    Votes: 25 19.2%
  • Thiem in 5

    Votes: 11 8.5%

  • Total voters
    130
  • Poll closed .

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
But if he loses, he will be injured, no? So I take it you're 100% sure he wins this RG.
100% does not exist in sport. Let's say I'm 99% confident that a) you are overestimating Thiem's chances and b) Murray/Wawa are even less likely than Thiem to stop Nadal from biting that yummy trophy on Sunday ;) :p
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
Anything can happen this year. Except Murray winning the French Open. Oh scratch that, he could win a final if it's against Thiem.
Ha ha mind reader. I was just going to reply that !!!!
And boy wouldn't that be hilarious if Murray won the whole thing after struggling to win a match all year.
Very unlikely Thiem will make final though. And if he did, after a 20-18 5th set vs Rafa, he'd probably have to retire after 2 games in final o_O
 

TheGhostOfAgassi

Talk Tennis Guru
I think Rafa could be surprised by Thiems level and strength. Both Moya and Toni very much aware that Thiem is the guy on clay this year so Rafa is as ready as possible can be, but he hasnt played against this kind of force for a long time, as I believe Thiem is playing his best clay tennis he has ever done right now.
Wind, court and weather I dont believe are any factor this match.

Then we have the mental aspect that can turn it around though. Maybe Thiem doesnt play his best he will not win. But if he does, he has a chance!!!
 
T

Tiki-Taka

Guest
His biggest competition all 9 times were players who prefer grass and hard court. So yes.

Funny enough, this is the first year his biggest competition (Thiem and Stan) prefer clay.
But I highly doubt they are better on clay than Federer and Djokovic despite different preferences.
 

Krish872007

Talk Tennis Guru
The first set will be crucial for Thiem - that's where the match will be won or lost. No-one has ever come from a set down to beat Rafa at Roland Garros and he's proving to be a particularly good front-runner this tournament.
But even if Thiem does win the first set, he cannot afford to drop his level because Nadal won't. Nadal won't go anywhere in this match, you have to beat him outright. And he knows that if he gets off to a fast start he can overwhelm his opponents.
The key for Thiem will be to hold his opening few service games confidently & establish some rhythm before trying to attack Rafa's serve. No real "key to the match" for Rafa, he just needs to do what he always does and execute successfully.
 

Tatenda

Semi-Pro
Because of the lack of play Nadal is not dialed in, he can be beaten. I am cautiously optimistic

He has enough tennis in him I believe over the last 2 months and to be this rested is exactly what he needs now.
I don't know if he will win after what I saw today , the mentality of thiem were every point played ends on his terms how do you deal with that?
 

Newcomer

Hall of Fame
A very important question is how will Nadal serve. If he serves like in Rome or today against Carreno then Thiem will destroy him in straight sets. He needs to serve like in Madrid.
 

YellowFedBetter

Hall of Fame
On a random note, I know there has never been an all Babolat men's GS final, but how many all Bab SF's does this make? Anyone know?
 

Tatenda

Semi-Pro
The first set will be crucial for Thiem - that's where the match will be won or lost. No-one has ever come from a set down to beat Rafa at Roland Garros and he's proving to be a particularly good front-runner this tournament.
But even if Thiem does win the first set, he cannot afford to drop his level because Nadal won't. Nadal won't go anywhere in this match, you have to beat him outright. And he knows that if he gets off to a fast start he can overwhelm his opponents.
The key for Thiem will be to hold his opening few service games confidently & establish some rhythm before trying to attack Rafa's serve. No real "key to the match" for Rafa, he just needs to do what he always does and execute successfully.

What do you think nadal tells himself when walking out on court vs thiem
Do you think he genuinely will believe he might lose
or he will feel he should handle thiem , with whatever effort is required?
 

tenisdecente

Hall of Fame
Lol, what? Rome has a VERY low bounce. It's pretty much a red hardcourt. That's the reason why hard hitters like Djokovic like it more than other clay courts. Closest to RG is Monte Carlo.

I was reading your comment until the "hard hitters like Djokovic" part. LMAO. You have less tennis than Lebron James :D
Montecarlo is similar to RG, but not more than Rome., They are more or less the same... if hard hitters would be successful at Rome, Nadal would have won less titles there and Fed would have at least one. Dont try to fool people buddy
 
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jaggy

Talk Tennis Guru
Another must see, I'm sure the organizers will conspire to make this a very difficult task.
 

Krish872007

Talk Tennis Guru
What do you think nadal tells himself when walking out on court vs thiem
Do you think he genuinely will believe he might lose
or he will feel he should handle thiem , with whatever effort is required?

It's a tough one - I can't enter Nadal's mind, but by his body language on court we can hazard a guess at what he may be thinking.
Sure, maybe he does believe he could actually lose at some point. If Thiem does a Soderling and hits the lines every point then it does create doubts
Rafa always says that he is focused on every point, trying to win every point - he has great respect for all his opponents and wants to be as ruthless as possible just in case they try to stage fightbacks
 

tenisdecente

Hall of Fame
So, the 2 games PCB won today were by breaking Nadal's serve? LMAO. I think then this match will be more even that I thought, even if Thiem is not exactly Djokovic returning the serve....
 

Get A Grip

Hall of Fame
I said Nadal in 4. I wonder if the lack of a quarterfinal is good or not for Rafa. No-one to push him to a higher level, he will have to adjust fast.
What's the furthest Thiem has gone at a major? I know he's best on clay, I'm just wondering if he has 5 sets in him. We all know Rafa does.
 

Gazelle

G.O.A.T.
This year is the first time Nadal has faced a true top clay court player (Thiem) since 2005 (Coria). Federer and Djokovic are legends but not exactly clay court specialists, their shots not heavy enough for the clay, having to rely too much on painting the lines to beat Nadal. Thiem is the first topspin monster since the appearance of Rafa in 2005, let's see how this clash with the new guard goes. A pity though the past decade didn't have the clay court depth of the nineties.
 

icedevil0289

G.O.A.T.
I said Nadal in 4. I wonder if the lack of a quarterfinal is good or not for Rafa. No-one to push him to a higher level, he will have to adjust fast.
What's the furthest Thiem has gone at a major? I know he's best on clay, I'm just wondering if he has 5 sets in him. We all know Rafa does.
i think sf at this tournament last year. funny enough lost to novak in straight sets.
 

Sport

G.O.A.T.
If Thiem indeed beats Nadal it could be a changing of the guard moment at RG. He is one player who can win this tournament multiple times if he stays fit.

Goffin was injured. But Goffin did defeat both Thiem and Djokovic in Montecarlo. I hope we can see many Goffin-Thiem matches in the future Roland Garros editions.
 

Sport

G.O.A.T.
This year is the first time Nadal has faced a true top clay court player (Thiem) since 2005 (Coria). Federer and Djokovic are legends but not exactly clay court specialists, their shots not heavy enough for the clay, having to rely too much on painting the lines to beat Nadal. Thiem is the first topspin monster since the appearance of Rafa in 2005, let's see how this clash with the new guard goes. A pity though the past decade didn't have the clay court depth of the nineties.

To be an "specialist" is not so relevant. The most important thing is how good you are playing a particular surface. Both Djokovic and Federer are far better clay players than many clay "specialists" in the 90s like Moyá, Corretja or Chang.
 

Tennis Rules

Semi-Pro
very interesting match up. if sombody told me that rafa will be better ranked than nole in 2017....i would had lost all my money.

so...its not rafa vs nole (a match i would love to had seen), but vs thiem its very good.

if thiem play like he has play against nole today...it would be very hard for rafa. but on the other hand, rafa must have so much big confidence that could push hi.

i don´t know if the last two rounds were good for rafa and his rhytum. the otherside ist that he had the most matches played in 2017, so a little rest should be god form him when it goes over distance....

hoping that rafa will win it...vamos
 

DRII

G.O.A.T.
Theim matches Nadal for power off the ground, very few can claim such on clay.

But, other than that - what else is there?

Nadal has touch, net play, etc.

Theim only has one path to victory, while Nadal has more than one path.
 
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Charleneriva

Hall of Fame
So, the 2 games PCB won today were by breaking Nadal's serve? LMAO. I think then this match will be more even that I thought, even if Thiem is not exactly Djokovic returning the serve....

Umh. Yep. He was breaking himself. Twice. Once to love, when serving for the set!

That's how bad it was.

The thing with Rafa is, despite all the "hype" right now, atm his return game is more reliable than his service game. He can afford that against so so - good players. Probably not against top players like Thiem or Stan. They will thrive on it and just won't give him many chances; and his beating himself can only make him even more nervous in everything else. Yep, 9 time Champion. Leading all the way in the match. Still nervous and had some brainfart here and there.

Some interesting stats:

2017 Season

Winning the first point of your service game is a “calling card” of the Top 10 players in the world. It gets them ahead in their service games, where they tend to stay.

Eight of the current Top 10 players are performing WORSE in this specific area in 2017 than they did in 2016.

Top 10 Average – Winning Opening Point Of Service Game
  • 2016 = 68.3%
  • 2017 = 66.4%
The only two players that have improved in this area from 2016 to 2017 are:
  1. Rafael Nadal – from 61.4% to 66.2%
  2. Kei Nishikori – from 66.4% to 68.3%
When Nadal wins the opening point of his service game this season and goes ahead 15-0, he has a 93.1% chance of holding serve. That is up from 89.2% last season.

If Nadal falls behind 0-15, he won only 67.9% of his service games in 2016. That’s up to 79.1% in 2017.

Rafael Nadal is 29-5 in 2017, with back-to-back titles in Monte Carlo and Barcelona. Let’s not forget he also made the final at the Australian Open, Acapulco, and Miami. He is winning 88% of his service games in 2017, which is up from his career average of 85%.
 
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Qubax

Professional
You can just feel all the obvious Federer fans and Fed fans in disguise desperate for someone to beat Nadal :D
You know it's funny that you say this.

I am a huge Federer fan and two of my friends are big Fed fans as well and we are all cheering for Nadal and against Djokovic at this French Open.

I think as Fed fans we have grown to respect Nadal more. He is a year older then Djoko, burst onto the scene earlier and is more of a contemporary of Fed in the first half of his career.

Sure we don't want to see anyone catch Fed in slams. But now that Fed is at 18 slams with a decent shot at adding 19 before the end of the year, we are okay with Rafa adding #15.

Our biggest fear is getting Djoko to 13 and allowing him to get on a run where he blasts past both Nadal and Federer in the next couple of years.

If it was Fed vs Nadal (as it was in the AO17 final I was completely and utterly cheering for Fed and wanting Nadal to DIE), but I think many Fed fans have grown to respect and dare I say like Rafa a bit - especially as both Roger/Rafa fan bases jointly hate Djokovic.
 

Gazelle

G.O.A.T.
To be an "specialist" is not so relevant. The most important thing is how good you are playing a particular surface. Both Djokovic and Federer are far better clay players than many clay "specialists" in the 90s like Moyá, Corretja or Chang.

You're not really mentioning the best clay courters. Djokovic and Federer might be better than them, but I'm not sure they are better on clay than Courier, Bruguera, Kuerten and maybe even Muster.
 

Gazelle

G.O.A.T.
You know it's funny that you say this.

I am a huge Federer fan and two of my friends are big Fed fans as well and we are all cheering for Nadal and against Djokovic at this French Open.

I think as Fed fans we have grown to respect Nadal more. He is a year older then Djoko, burst onto the scene earlier and is more of a contemporary of Fed in the first half of his career.

Sure we don't want to see anyone catch Fed in slams. But now that Fed is at 18 slams with a decent shot at adding 19 before the end of the year, we are okay with Rafa adding #15.

Our biggest fear is getting Djoko to 13 and allowing him to get on a run where he blasts past both Nadal and Federer in the next couple of years.

If it was Fed vs Nadal (as it was in the AO17 final I was completely and utterly cheering for Fed and wanting Nadal to DIE), but I think many Fed fans have grown to respect and dare I say like Rafa a bit - especially as both Roger/Rafa fan bases jointly hate Djokovic.

I'd love to respect Rafa (he has many admirable attributes), but his regular cheating and false humbalito acts make that impossible for me.
 

veroniquem

Bionic Poster
So, the 2 games PCB won today were by breaking Nadal's serve? LMAO. I think then this match will be more even that I thought, even if Thiem is not exactly Djokovic returning the serve....
He has the same return % on clay as Djoko in any case : 31% and he serves a lot better but compared to Rafa's stats... ouch.
I think Thiem is gonna find out the hard way that Nadal was not playing his best in Rome :oops:
 

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
Because of the lack of play Nadal is not dialed in, he can be beaten. I am cautiously optimistic

This has also crossed my mind. Nadal's draw so far has been powder puff city. But Thiem absolutely MUST use more variety than just the ball bashing from the stands. He has to come in sometimes, he has to use the drop shot to perfection and he has to hold his nerve. Can he do it? And even if he does, will it make a difference? This is Nadal at RG, after all. To beat him here is something extremely special.
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
From a strictly objective view, I think this is the best semi final we could have asked for, with both Nadal and Thiem in form, while Djokovic not so, and there beingh virtually no one else who could have. On the other side, Murray and Wawrinka will be good also, probably the best we could have gotten from that side also.
 

icedevil0289

G.O.A.T.
You know it's funny that you say this.

I am a huge Federer fan and two of my friends are big Fed fans as well and we are all cheering for Nadal and against Djokovic at this French Open.

I think as Fed fans we have grown to respect Nadal more. He is a year older then Djoko, burst onto the scene earlier and is more of a contemporary of Fed in the first half of his career.

Sure we don't want to see anyone catch Fed in slams. But now that Fed is at 18 slams with a decent shot at adding 19 before the end of the year, we are okay with Rafa adding #15.

Our biggest fear is getting Djoko to 13 and allowing him to get on a run where he blasts past both Nadal and Federer in the next couple of years.

If it was Fed vs Nadal (as it was in the AO17 final I was completely and utterly cheering for Fed and wanting Nadal to DIE), but I think many Fed fans have grown to respect and dare I say like Rafa a bit - especially as both Roger/Rafa fan bases jointly hate Djokovic.

lol i think i'm one of the few hc fed fans who do prefer novak, but that's just because i came across more annoying rafa fans than novak fans, especially at the height of rafa's dominance, and after AO 2009. that and i still maintain that fed/novak matches are probably the most high quality of the big 4. i always found it amusing how much rafa fans hated novak once he flipped the script and i'd sit back and be like good that's how us fed fans feel. at the end of the day i dont hate any of them obviously.
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
I'm not sure NADAL can go 5 sets with Thiem. Come on, Nadal is 31 years old, the times where he could just go toe to toe with his rivals and they will fold eventually in the 5th set are over. If Thiem wins one of the first 2 sets I think the upset is on.
You're setting yourself up for a disappointment if you think this is the case. Nadal is back, including his otherwordly stamina. If anyone tires out, it's Thiem. Now that doesn't mean, Nadal can't be beaten. But it won't be because he tires out after Thiem wins one of the first 2.
Impressive win by Thiem today. He really hit through Novak.

My overall assessment of Thiem is that he still struggles with knowing what to do at the right times with his court positioning and shot selection. Sometimes squeezes the trigger a little too early, sometimes gets too far behind the baseline, especially on his backhand wing resulting in errors he otherwise would not make (he netted a lot today, because he hit his backhand late). I think he has such a heavy ground game that it'd suit his game if he went for bigger margins and better point construction. The lower amount of winners he'd hit as a result, would be compensated by fewer UEs and more FEs from the opponent as well. Although you have to keep in mind a one-handed backhand is more tailored towards generating acceleration and power than towards obtaining stability. But if Wawrinka and Gasquet can do it with their racket take-back, so should he.

I can't really figure out how Thiem should play Nadal tomorrow. I think Nadal is too solid defensively for him to just crush the ball at every opportunity he gets. Even though Nadal's defense hasn't really been tested, it's also the signal it sends to Nadal: "I know I can't fight with you, so I'm just going to go all out". Nadal feeds off that, unless the unlikely God-mode Soderling performance takes place.
I think Thiem is solid enough at the moment to mix it up. Drag out some rallies, make Nadal work. Finish off some rallies quickly, get close to that baseline. Thiem has to try to force the errors out of Nadal and not only try to blast winners past him.

Some things to note:
-Thiem's favourite kick serve on the ad court is going to go up high to Nadal's FH, which isn't going to trouble Nadal as much as it would others
- Look for both to serve in a way to set up their FHs. The one who manages to hit their forehand the most times after their serves is likely to double his odds of winning: ala the one who manages to direct their returns to the oponnents backhand the most times will have a clear advantage. The higher the first serve % the easier this will be
- What will Thiem do to get out of Nadal's forehand lockdown of his backhand side? Will he stand far back and hit his BH back cross court or will he risk by taking it earlier and/or redirect the ball to neutralize?
- Nadal hasn't faced a guy with Thiem's firepower so far. Will he be able to do his trademark passing shots when he's on the defensive? (This also begs the question: when and how much should Thiem approach the net? A question a certain Swiss has had a hard time answering for a lot of years) If Nadal makes some of these it means he's moving well and getting a read on Thiem's offense. It'll fire Nadal up, as well as make Thiem go for smaller margins, prompting more mistakes

Conditions are also looking pretty good for Thiem. Weather forecast says same conditions to today, actually a bit cooler.

I think either Nadal takes Thiem apart pretty handidly in three or this one will be a blockbuster with Nadal winning in a five set epic.
Well done, post of the thread.
 

MichaelNadal

Bionic Poster
I said Nadal in 4. I wonder if the lack of a quarterfinal is good or not for Rafa. No-one to push him to a higher level, he will have to adjust fast.
What's the furthest Thiem has gone at a major? I know he's best on clay, I'm just wondering if he has 5 sets in him. We all know Rafa does.

Nadal has been doing this since 05. Rest is WAY more important than tough matches at this point. I highly doubt he's taking Thiem lightly.
 

tennis4jags

Semi-Pro
I think Rafa could be surprised by Thiems level and strength. Both Moya and Toni very much aware that Thiem is the guy on clay this year so Rafa is as ready as possible can be, but he hasnt played against this kind of force for a long time, as I believe Thiem is playing his best clay tennis he has ever done right now.
Wind, court and weather I dont believe are any factor this match.

Then we have the mental aspect that can turn it around though. Maybe Thiem doesnt play his best he will not win. But if he does, he has a chance!!!
I heard that Nadal's team would have been more happy if Djokovic is the opponent. But now both Moya and Toni are a bit worry that Thiem is playing very high level.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
I am going with the upset. Thiem in four! I think Nadal just hasn't been challenge enough. I am expecting the good thiem to show up.
loveshower.gif
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
For tennis' sakes, I'll be happy with either outcome. I'm not sure Thiem has the energy to go 4 hours with Nadal over five sets. I think they go 2-2 and then in the fifth set... Thiem gets gassed.

Nadal in 5.
Thiem Goffin was around 4 hours and 4 sets. Thiem definitely can bring it for 4 sets no problemo.:p
 

Nadalgaenger

G.O.A.T.
Impressive win by Thiem today. He really hit through Novak.

My overall assessment of Thiem is that he still struggles with knowing what to do at the right times with his court positioning and shot selection. Sometimes squeezes the trigger a little too early, sometimes gets too far behind the baseline, especially on his backhand wing resulting in errors he otherwise would not make (he netted a lot today, because he hit his backhand late). I think he has such a heavy ground game that it'd suit his game if he went for bigger margins and better point construction. The lower amount of winners he'd hit as a result, would be compensated by fewer UEs and more FEs from the opponent as well. Although you have to keep in mind a one-handed backhand is more tailored towards generating acceleration and power than towards obtaining stability. But if Wawrinka and Gasquet can do it with their racket take-back, so should he.

I can't really figure out how Thiem should play Nadal tomorrow. I think Nadal is too solid defensively for him to just crush the ball at every opportunity he gets. Even though Nadal's defense hasn't really been tested, it's also the signal it sends to Nadal: "I know I can't fight with you, so I'm just going to go all out". Nadal feeds off that, unless the unlikely God-mode Soderling performance takes place.
I think Thiem is solid enough at the moment to mix it up. Drag out some rallies, make Nadal work. Finish off some rallies quickly, get close to that baseline. Thiem has to try to force the errors out of Nadal and not only try to blast winners past him.

Some things to note:
-Thiem's favourite kick serve on the ad court is going to go up high to Nadal's FH, which isn't going to trouble Nadal as much as it would others
- Look for both to serve in a way to set up their FHs. The one who manages to hit their forehand the most times after their serves is likely to double his odds of winning: ala the one who manages to direct their returns to the oponnents backhand the most times will have a clear advantage. The higher the first serve % the easier this will be
- What will Thiem do to get out of Nadal's forehand lockdown of his backhand side? Will he stand far back and hit his BH back cross court or will he risk by taking it earlier and/or redirect the ball to neutralize?
- Nadal hasn't faced a guy with Thiem's firepower so far. Will he be able to do his trademark passing shots when he's on the defensive? (This also begs the question: when and how much should Thiem approach the net? A question a certain Swiss has had a hard time answering for a lot of years) If Nadal makes some of these it means he's moving well and getting a read on Thiem's offense. It'll fire Nadal up, as well as make Thiem go for smaller margins, prompting more mistakes

Conditions are also looking pretty good for Thiem. Weather forecast says same conditions to today, actually a bit cooler.

I think either Nadal takes Thiem apart pretty handidly in three or this one will be a blockbuster with Nadal winning in a five set epic.
Excellent analysis. I concur.
 
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