2017 FO SF - [4] Nadal vs [6] Thiem

[Nostradamus]

How dangerous of match is this for RAFA ? Thiem beat him just couple of weeks ago and must be riding high on confidence

 

[Meles]

Impressive win by Thiem today. He really hit through Novak.

My overall assessment of Thiem is that he still struggles with knowing what to do at the right times with his court positioning and shot selection. Sometimes squeezes the trigger a little too early, sometimes gets too far behind the baseline, especially on his backhand wing resulting in errors he otherwise would not make (he netted a lot today, because he hit his backhand late). I think he has such a heavy ground game that it'd suit his game if he went for bigger margins and better point construction. The lower amount of winners he'd hit as a result, would be compensated by fewer UEs and more FEs from the opponent as well. Although you have to keep in mind a one-handed backhand is more tailored towards generating acceleration and power than towards obtaining stability. But if Wawrinka and Gasquet can do it with their racket take-back, so should he.

I can't really figure out how Thiem should play Nadal tomorrow. I think Nadal is too solid defensively for him to just crush the ball at every opportunity he gets. Even though Nadal's defense hasn't really been tested, it's also the signal it sends to Nadal: "I know I can't fight with you, so I'm just going to go all out". Nadal feeds off that, unless the unlikely God-mode Soderling performance takes place.
I think Thiem is solid enough at the moment to mix it up. Drag out some rallies, make Nadal work. Finish off some rallies quickly, get close to that baseline. Thiem has to try to force the errors out of Nadal and not only try to blast winners past him.

Some things to note:
-Thiem's favourite kick serve on the ad court is going to go up high to Nadal's FH, which isn't going to trouble Nadal as much as it would others
- Look for both to serve in a way to set up their FHs. The one who manages to hit their forehand the most times after their serves is likely to double his odds of winning: ala the one who manages to direct their returns to the oponnents backhand the most times will have a clear advantage. The higher the first serve % the easier this will be
- What will Thiem do to get out of Nadal's forehand lockdown of his backhand side? Will he stand far back and hit his BH back cross court or will he risk by taking it earlier and/or redirect the ball to neutralize?
- Nadal hasn't faced a guy with Thiem's firepower so far. Will he be able to do his trademark passing shots when he's on the defensive? (This also begs the question: when and how much should Thiem approach the net? A question a certain Swiss has had a hard time answering for a lot of years) If Nadal makes some of these it means he's moving well and getting a read on Thiem's offense. It'll fire Nadal up, as well as make Thiem go for smaller margins, prompting more mistakes

Conditions are also looking pretty good for Thiem. Weather forecast says same conditions to today, actually a bit cooler.

I think either Nadal takes Thiem apart pretty handidly in three or this one will be a blockbuster with Nadal winning in a five set epic.

Excellent analysis. On the Thiem Super Kicker, Nadal returned that serve so well in Madrid that Thiem hardly hit it against him in Rome. A bit of a chess match here if Rafa tries to protect his backhand more.

The conditions are close to Rome, but it will be windy again from a front bringing in some rain over night. Lower temperatures and damp courts will dull the Thiem assault, but also expecting low pressure which will speed things up some too to compensate. The killer for Thiem is the low pressure will make the balls bounce higher and that may handcuff him a bit with high balls. Not as bad as Madrid, but it may be bad enough. (my forecast says Friday warmer than Wednesday.)

Agree that Thiem will have to mix it up. A huge factor for Rafa is that Moya is at RG (not at Rome). That should help Rafa serve better and stay away from his old patterns, but don't be surprised if he reverts to his old ways like 5th set against Fed in Auz (that would be a huge mistake against Thiem who is returning first serves well enough as it is.)

The one negative for Rafa is the short match with Busta. I don't know Rafa extremely well, but I'd expect that might make him even slower coming out of the gates.

I have no prediction for this match, but yours is probably close to the mark. I'll be shocked if Thiem has the energy to take Rafa down in 5 sets, so Thiem in 5 seems highly improbable without some lopsided sets.

 

[Meles]

Pretty sure he can. He did it against Dimitrov this year.

Five sets with Thiem on clay in a close match might be the most brutal match of Rafa's career, but Thiem would lose in the fifth I'm almost sure.

 

[tennisaddict]

I am going for an upset here. Thiem in 5 brutal sets to ensure sunset for Rafa.

 

[Meles]

@Meles
We need your thoughts (hopes) on this!
Is there any hope for Thiem? I dont think playing on main court is any problem for him.

He should respond well to the bigger crowd like in Madrid. Chartrier has a lot of room on the court. Would be very interesting if Rafa reverted to playing really deep and defending. Somehow I think that would play into Thiem's hands. I won't mind seeing Thiem test the extra real estate at the back of the court. Maybe Rafa's damnable high bouncing balls will come down if Thiem is back far enough.

 

[Get A Grip]

Nadal has been doing this since 05. Rest is WAY more important than tough matches at this point. I highly doubt he's taking Thiem lightly.

True, at this point in Rafa's career, rest is the more important factor. He probably wouldn't have lost to Thiem in Rome had he not been tired from winning the three previous tournaments. Too bad Djok couldn't take anything out of Thiem.

 

[Meles]

His biggest competition all 9 times were players who prefer grass and hard court. So yes.

Funny enough, this is the first year his biggest competition (Thiem and Stan) prefer clay.

Poly has wiped out the clay court specialist. Now everyone is using it and everyone has baseline game that translates well to clay. Thiem probably is the first serious clay courter with a really heavy game since Nadal. Wawa is a warrior and saw him spinning nicely today in the wind too. (Keep a blind eye on Ruud on clay.) Given that I can't agree that Nadal hasn't had good competition on clay; everyone is good on clay and 7 of the 8 seeds making QF pretty much says it all.

 

[Meles]

Because of the lack of play Nadal is not dialed in, he can be beaten. I am cautiously optimistic

Stop the press. You're supposed to be a Nadal fan. You're optimistic he can be beaten?

 

[WhiskeyEE]

Poly has wiped out the clay court specialist. Now everyone is using it and everyone has baseline game that translates well to clay. Thiem probably is the first serious clay courter with a really heavy game since Nadal. Wawa is a warrior and saw him spinning nicely today in the wind too. (Keep a blind eye on Ruud on clay.) Given that I can't agree that Nadal hasn't had good competition on clay; everyone is good on clay and 7 of the 8 seeds making QF pretty much says it all.

Most players do not prefer clay. Federer isn't even playing on it anymore. Novak has never had much offense on the surface and Murray was garbage on clay until recently. Nadal always had it very easy.

 

[tennis24x7]

How dangerous of match is this for RAFA ? Thiem beat him just couple of weeks ago and must be riding high on confidence

Rafa is very good with revenge matches. Uncle toni is the bill belicheck of tennis. I have voted nadal in 4 but might close it out in three. Rafa's forehand has gotten its sting back

 

[ppmishra]

The wild card is that Rafa has had plenty of rest this time. He looked fatigued against Theim at Rome. His draw has been weak and he got extra rest after the withdrawl.

Yes, but that can be a do

His biggest competition all 9 times were players who prefer grass and hard court. So yes.

Funny enough, this is the first year his biggest competition (Thiem and Stan) prefer clay.

True, but you have to consider that while Nadal has lost some of his old speed, he has made up for it (to an extent) with more aggressive serving and attacking play. The positive aspect for him is he has remained close to the baseline and is trying hard to shorten points which will help him long term. Now the question is can he continue doing that against thiem or will DT pace and spin push him way back and force him to play defensively? Imo, the tactical adjustment DT made at Rome will definitely be on show as well as the wide kick serves, and it remains to be seen how well rafa responds and how they respond to each other. But it's amazing how well attacking one handers have done/ are doing this year coupled with players like rafa change and adjust and that is great for the game overall.

 

[Backhanded Compliment]

How dangerous of match is this for RAFA ? Thiem beat him just couple of weeks ago and must be riding high on confidence

He's got belief... he's got the weapons. I dont know about his tennis brain (Rafa is very good... erm awesome in that department) but perhaps we see Thiem come into his own? This ones a a great semi on paper for sure... let's see what kind of match shows up?

Yes, but that can be a do

True, but you have to consider that while Nadal has lost some of his old speed, he has made up for it (to an extent) with more aggressive serving and attacking play. The positive aspect for him is he has remained close to the baseline and is trying hard to shorten points which will help him long term. Now the question is can he continue doing that against thiem or will DT pace and spin push him way back and force him to play defensively? Imo, the tactical adjustment DT made at Rome will definitely be on show as well as the wide kick serves, and it remains to be seen how well rafa responds and how they respond to each other. But it's amazing how well attacking one handers have done/ are doing this year coupled with players like rafa change and adjust and that is great for the game overall.

Attacking 1 handers.... yes! I feel like the ATP tour has adjusted to heavy topsin. That kind of heavy topspin isnt a new thing anymore.

 

[Meles]

They are playing again?

Amazing! This must be a record for a clay season.

4th time in a high stakes match this year.

 

[Rosstour]

Thiem in 5.

He has been building confidence throughout the clay season and has come back tougher every time he loses to one of the top guys. Djok crushed him in Rome and Thiem came back and wiped him out.

The matches got closer every time he played Rafa and then finally he broke through...IMO because Rafa got tired after playing so much.

That fitness will play a huge role here. Rafa's age will hurt and Die Methode could really pay off for the first time in a longer battle.

 

[Tennisanity]

Murray/Wawa are gonna beat Rafa at RG?????????? Ha ha ha ha ha. And then you woke up

That's what you would have said in 2015 Wawa against Djoko too.

 

[icedevil0289]

its really interesting that people think thiem will get this done in 5. i feel like if thiem is going to get this done it has to be in 3 or 4, though i doubt rafa wont win atleast 1 set.

 

[Meles]

True, at this point in Rafa's career, rest is the more important factor. He probably wouldn't have lost to Thiem in Rome had he not been tired from winning the three previous tournaments. Too bad Djok couldn't take anything out of Thiem.

This is pretty much malarkey. Thiem and Rafa played Barcelona final. Had a week off. Played Madrid final. Thiem took him down on pretty much equal terms in Rome. Both might have been a touch tired, but it is hard to believe that Rafa was at a stamina disadvantage in Rome. Maybe he is and Thiem does have hope in a long match.

The one thing that was certain in Rome is the ball bounce height was not enough to get the balls out of Thiem's strike zone. Pretty much saw Rafa hitting near the same height with Busta. I've gotta feeling that Rafa in the expected 14 kph wind Friday won't be able to work the forehand as much. In fact downwind spin will be killed. Into the wind it will bounce higher, but it won't get through the court.

The answer to this match is staring us in the face with the Rome result and that means this is either going to be close or possibly a blow out for Thiem. Rafa in 4 or 5 is possible, but he's unlikely to come out sharp given his MO and lack of play in the QF. Thiem also starts a bit slow, so this match will be very interesting if Thiem takes the first set as both are likely to play better in the 2nd and 3rd.

 

[moonballs]

Curious has nadal played a 5 setter and how many during his fo career? Iirc both his losses at rg I think were 4 sets and 3 sets

I think in the bio passport era the only five setter Nadal won was the AO SF over the young artist. But i am not 100pct sure. The SF will go to Thiem if it goes to five because Thiem is at his physical prime.

 

[Meles]

Most players do not prefer clay. Federer isn't even playing on it anymore. Novak has never had much offense on the surface and Murray was garbage on clay until recently. Nadal always had it very easy.

Djokovic and Federer have won more points on clay than anyone other than Nadal since 1991 when these stats began. Agree on Murray. You are living in lala land if you think good ole clay court specialists from the 90's are ever coming back. Today you have to have a brutally good serve game (the area Murray has improved tremendously on clay) to go deep on clay. I'm not sure what you're waiting for, but Thiem is the closest in style. Guga led the way to this new type of game. He'd be the only one who'd hold up today, but that guy won so many 5 set matches on his runs I've got a feeling his game wouldn't stand up overall. Guga lunched on the field because he was the first guy who really took to Poly which was a massive technology change.

 

[icedevil0289]

I think in the bio passport era the only five setter Nadal won was the AO SF over the young artist. But i am not 100pct sure. The SF will go to Thiem if it goes to five because Thiem is at his physical prime.

hmmm maybe, but not like rafa's fitness is something to overlook either. not to mention, the important factor of experience and knowing how to dig deep and win bo5 at slams. listen i'm rooting for thiem but not optimistic about his chances

 

[Nick Lynch]

Tough ask for Thiem on this one but he certainly has a punchers chance. He'll have to stand in like he did today on the return of serve especially. Still I like Rafa in 4 in this one.

 

[moonballs]

Is this one going to be on NBC or the Wawrinka Murray one?

 

[icedevil0289]

apologize if this has been posted before, but thiem's post match interview, and his thoughts going into the semis.

 

[Meles]

its really interesting that people think thiem will get this done in 5. i feel like if thiem is going to get this done it has to be in 3 or 4, though i doubt rafa wont win atleast 1 set.

I agree. I don't buy into the PED theories on Nadal that have fueled this speculation in 2015/2016, but it still colors people's thinking. I know Thiem. He cannot play 5 high stakes long sets on clay. It is not happening. I see no reason that Nadal would not prevail if the match goes to a fifth set unless a lot of the sets were lopsided. I also think Nadal losing in Rome because he says he was tired is nonsense as they were both tired at that stage of the season and look no further than Thiem's debacle with Djokovic for confirmation. Thiem has to win this in 3 or 4 and most likely has to win the first set.

 

[icedevil0289]

Is this one going to be on NBC or the Wawrinka Murray one?

no idea but annoyed at how little coverage we get for RG here. also, is it usually the top half that goes first? idk how rg schedules things, or would they want thiem/nadal to get more of "prime time" slot so to speak.

 

[Meles]

Is this one going to be on NBC or the Wawrinka Murray one?

Murray v Wawa will be the later match on NBC, but this one still might be going at 11 am EST.

 

[icedevil0289]

I agree. I don't buy into the PED theories on Nadal that have fueled this speculation in 2015/2016, but it still colors people's thinking. I know Thiem. He cannot play 5 high stakes long sets on clay. It is not happening. I see no reason that Nadal would not prevail if the match goes to a fifth set unless a lot of the sets were lopsided. I also think Nadal losing in Rome because he says he was tired is nonsense as they were both tired at that stage of the season and look no further than Thiem's debacle with Djokovic for confirmation. Thiem has to win this in 3 or 4 and most likely has to win the first set.

yup, i feel like that tends to be the case against rafa. if rafa gets going, he is going to run away with it. even if thiem gets the first set, there are obviously no guarantees so he has to stay on top consistently.
lol rafa is forever the toughest/fittest player until he loses

 

[Meles]

I think in the bio passport era the only five setter Nadal won was the AO SF over the young artist. But i am not 100pct sure. The SF will go to Thiem if it goes to five because Thiem is at his physical prime.

A five setter will test the bio passport theory.

 

[moonballs]

hmmm maybe, but not like rafa's fitness is something to overlook either. not to mention, the important factor of experience and knowing how to dig deep and win bo5 at slams. listen i'm rooting for thiem but not optimistic about his chances

It's more likely Nadal to win in 4 than Thiem in 5. But if it goes to 5 i say the balance massively ****s to the 24 years old over the 31 year old.

 

[moonballs]

A five setter will test the bio passport theory.

For sure it will.

 

[icedevil0289]

Murray v Wawa will be the later match on NBC, but this one still might be going at 11 am EST.

lmao its so infuriating how coverage works on nbc. we only get it on weekends and even that, it started at freaking 12pm est, which means 6pm paris time its insane. i have no idea what time the matches will start on friday and if any will be going beyond 5pm paris time.

 

[icedevil0289]

It's more likely Nadal to win in 4 than Thiem in 5. But if it goes to 5 i say the balance massively ****s to the 24 years old over the 31 year old.

shrugs, i also think the mental experience counts for a lot. also massively is kind of an exaggeration imo

 

[Meles]

apologize if this has been posted before, but thiem's post match interview, and his thoughts going into the semis.

Probably one of his better interviews.

 

[icedevil0289]

Probably one of his better interviews.

what do you think about his attitude going into the semis and what he said about how he played above his level at rome and how it bodes for friday? i mean idt post match interviews mean a whole lot, but just curious

 

[Rosstour]

How dangerous of match is this for RAFA ? Thiem beat him just couple of weeks ago and must be riding high on confidence

Yup- -Rafa's confidence and consistency of approach are legendary, but I think Thiem is the last person he wants to play right now.

its really interesting that people think thiem will get this done in 5. i feel like if thiem is going to get this done it has to be in 3 or 4, though i doubt rafa wont win atleast 1 set.

Only Rafa isn't an automatic closer in 5 sets anymore. He showed that in the Australian final, against Fed of all people. I think the longer the match goes, the better Thiem's chances are.

 

[Meles]

lmao its so infuriating how coverage works on nbc. we only get it on weekends and even that, it started at freaking 12pm est, which means 6pm paris time its insane. i have no idea what time the matches will start on friday and if any will be going beyond 5pm paris time.

This one is 6:50 am EST and is on Tennis channel. Time to make friends. NBC coverage starts Friday at 11 am so if this is the clay match of the century it will still be going then.

 

[icedevil0289]

Yup- -Rafa's confidence and consistency of approach are legendary, but I think Thiem is the last person he wants to play right now.



Only Rafa isn't an automatic closer in 5 sets anymore. He showed that in the Australian final, against Fed of all people. I think the longer the match goes, the better Thiem's chances are.

AO isnt RG though and I realize fed has this whole thing about having a mental block against rafa and losing the plot so to speak against him, but he is a legend himself with plenty of experience in 5 setters. anyway idk if rafa's results on hc, something he was never consistent on even during his peak, is indicative of his results on clay.

 

[icedevil0289]

This one is 6:50 am EST and is on Tennis channel. Time to make friends. NBC coverage starts Friday at 11 am so if this is the clay match of the century it will still be going then.

lmao unfortunately either way i wont get much of a chance to watch on friday due to work.

 

[WhiskeyEE]

Djokovic and Federer have won more points on clay than anyone other than Nadal since 1991 when these stats began. Agree on Murray. You are living in lala land if you think good ole clay court specialists from the 90's are ever coming back. Today you have to have a brutally good serve game (the area Murray has improved tremendously on clay) to go deep on clay. I'm not sure what you're waiting for, but Thiem is the closest in style. Guga led the way to this new type of game. He'd be the only one who'd hold up today, but that guy won so many 5 set matches on his runs I've got a feeling his game wouldn't stand up overall. Guga lunched on the field because he was the first guy who really took to Poly which was a massive technology change.

That doesn't change the fact that neither prefer clay. I never said anything about 90s style clay specialists. It is possible for players to be competent on all surfaces, but prefer clay. It has just rarely happened.

Since about 2005, literally no top player preferred clay besides Nadal, Ferrer, and Soderling (who, conveniently for Nadal, had to retire young) until Wawrinka became a top player in 2014 and then recently Thiem.

Federer - Prefers hard court and grass
Murray - Prefers hard court and grass
Novak - Prefers hard court and (imo) grass
Del Potro - Prefers hard court and grass
Berdych - Prefers hard court and grass
Nishikori - Prefers hard court
Tsonga - Prefers hard court and grass
Raonic - Prefers hard court and grass
Davydenko - Preferred hard court
Roddick - Preferred hard court and grass
Hewitt - Preferred hard court and grass
etc.

Soderling - Preferred clay, but retired like 2 years after hitting his prime
Ferrer - Prefers clay, but is useless against top players

It's pretty obvious how lucky Nadal has been.

 

[ppmishra]

This is pretty much malarkey. Thiem and Rafa played Barcelona final. Had a week off. Played Madrid final. Thiem took him down on pretty much equal terms in Rome. Both might have been a touch tired, but it is hard to believe that Rafa was at a stamina disadvantage in Rome. Maybe he is and Thiem does have hope in a long match.

The one thing that was certain in Rome is the ball bounce height was not enough to get the balls out of Thiem's strike zone. Pretty much saw Rafa hitting near the same height with Busta. I've gotta feeling that Rafa in the expected 14 kph wind Friday won't be able to work the forehand as much. In fact downwind spin will be killed. Into the wind it will bounce higher, but it won't get through the court.

The answer to this match is staring us in the face with the Rome result and that means this is either going to be close or possibly a blow out for Thiem. Rafa in 4 or 5 is possible, but he's unlikely to come out sharp given his MO and lack of play in the QF. Thiem also starts a bit slow, so this match will be very interesting if Thiem takes the first set as both are likely to play better in the 2nd and 3rd.

Actually, thiem lost early at monte Carlo so he did have more time to rest (relatively speaking) plus he is younger, but that argument would hold if rafa had a tough qf. But be that as it may, both are fresh motivated and let's see what the conditions are like. To be honest rafa was somewhat scratchy notwithstanding the score, maybe due to the wind because he was hitting short into the wind as you said so let's see come Friday.

 

[Meles]

what do you think about his attitude going into the semis and what he said about how he played above his level at rome and how it bodes for friday? i mean idt post match interviews mean a whole lot, but just curious

It is the right attitude, but frankly Thiem does not know himself so well. When he's fresh and in a match he ALWAYS ups his level like we saw in Rome. He did some amazing stuff to make that 2nd set a blow out. What you see is very much all about the other players level, but Nadal was probably playing better in the 2nd set and despite that Thiem took him down breaking him a 2nd time for the match.

Conditions are really going to set the stage for this match and weather reports are rarely correct. Thiem handled Djokovic easily because their was still a lot of wind around. If they'd played on Tuesday it would have been nightmarish for Djokovic.

As I think about the wind something just passed my mind. Nadal had some trouble on serve with Busta today. His spinny deliveries may be harder to control in the wind. He may not be able to serve that well. Thiem has a vast array of serves so he may have a big advantage in the wind.

The dealio with spin is it is amplified into the wind. So into the wind Nadal will tend to serve shorter. If he adjusts the balls still won't get to the back wall as quickly so that might make them more returnable. Downwind he loses all his kick. Ditto on the groundies.

 

[Meles]

Actually, thiem lost early at monte Carlo so he did have more time to rest (relatively speaking) plus he is younger, but that argument would hold if rafa had a tough qf. But be that as it may, both are fresh motivated and let's see what the conditions are like. To be honest rafa was somewhat scratchy notwithstanding the score, maybe due to the wind because he was hitting short into the wind as you said so let's see come Friday.

It is going to be pretty windy Friday. I know Rafa went deeper in Monte Carlo, but they both had a week off after Barcelona. Stamina or tiredness disadvantaging Nadal is unlikely. The difference was it was not deep in the event where Thiem was more likely to be the worse for wear. Djoko found that out the hard way at RG. Thiem has had very light time on court this year at RG so he's in an ideal position; much better than I dared hope for. He absolutely can win RG and could easily do it in straight sets. The days of Thiem gifting breaks or sets are a thing of the past. If he starts doing that it means he's tired and the match is over; see Barcelona final, Auz R16 Goffin, and Rome SF for examples of Thiem losing steam. Its not a pretty thing.

On Rafa being scratchy he just didn't need to do more against Busta floundering on serve (I'm not sure the guy won a 2nd serve point.) He would have looked different in the wind with lower bounces downwind and higher bounces into the wind, but probably not able to hit winners. I think Rafa will adjust very well for the wind, but I'm getting a very happy feeling that his serve is going to be hampered. Thiem at RG has won 48.9% of his return points including a whopping 41.4% on first return. He was very high on first return against Djoko and even higher against Rafa in Rome (over 45% on first return). Rafa wounded and confused on serve would lead to a huge blow out.

I am going to rewatch that Busta match like a hawk for how Rafa handled the wind particularly on serve.

 

[BeatlesFan]

This year is the first time Nadal has faced a true top clay court player (Thiem) since 2005 (Coria). Federer and Djokovic are legends but not exactly clay court specialists...

While true that neither are clay court specialists, both have done something 99.9% of pro tennis players have never done (or ever will do): win Roland Garros. So this proves both are superlative clay court players with much better clay resumes than Thiem. Now Thiem might go on and obliterate Djoker and Fed's clay stats, but that is yet to be seen.

I completely disagree that this is the first time Nadal has faced a top clay player since 2005. Novak trounced Nadal on clay in Rome and Madrid in 2011 w/o dropping a set. He beat him in MC and RG in 2015 again w/o dropping a set. Nadal facing Djoker at the French Open in 2015 was the last time he faced a great and true clay courter. Not 2005.

 

[TennisFan3]

The match hinges on Nadal's forehand. To be sure, Nadal's forehand is firing to an extent i.e his forehand has improved especially compared to late 2016 and earlier this year.
However it's just not the weapon it was in his prime and through 2013. His most offensive off-forehand and DTL are just not as lethal.
When he tries to run around his backhand and hit inside out, he sometimes misses or doesn't hit with angle and pace by which he used to take control of the point.

To compensate for this, Rafa is hitting his backhand better and also serving somewhat decently. He is playing well for sure, but I still feel that he has played better in RG in previous years. His game is a little more all rounded now, but it misses the bite and aggression of the past with which he could dominate on clay.

The key for Nadal would be to attack on the forehand and not let Thiem take control. Rafa needs to use his off-forehand more and even on the cross court forehand make sure he doesn't place it in the middle of the court. When the cross forehand is angled and placed well, the spin drags his opponent off court. But lately, when Nadal has been defensive he just loops his forehand short in the middle, right in the strike zone of his opponent.

Vs a Nadal at his best, I really believe that Stan, Murray or Thiem would have no chance on this court. However, as it stands, Nadal is not close to his best and therefore beatable. Especially if Thiem rises to the occasion and plays the match of his life.

That said, Nadal won't give it away. Even at 31 and past his prime he still has unique advantages on this surface and the heart of champion. He has only lost twice on this surface: once to someone who played the match of his life and another time to Djokovic who is an ATG.

I will go with Nadal in 4 hoping that he can turn the clock back and come up with a vintage performance. But I wouldn't be surprised if he cannot summon the old magic and falls prey to the young gun.

 

[WhiskeyEE]

While true that neither are clay court specialists, both have done something 99.9% of pro tennis players have never done (or ever will do): win Roland Garros. So this proves both are superlative clay court players with much better clay resumes than Thiem. Now Thiem might go on and obliterate Djoker and Fed's clay stats, but that is yet to be seen.

I completely disagree that this is the first time Nadal has faced a top clay player since 2005. Novak trounced Nadal on clay in Rome and Madrid in 2011 w/o dropping a set. He beat him in MC and RG in 2015 again w/o dropping a set. Nadal facing Djoker at the French Open in 2015 was the last time he faced a great and true clay courter. Not 2005.

Well... he faced David "The Gatekeeper" Ferrer in the 2013 finals. lol.

 

[BeatlesFan]

The match hinges on Nadal's forehand. To be sure, Nadal's forehand is firing to an extent i.e his forehand has improved especially compared to late 2016 and earlier this year.
However it's just not the weapon it was in his prime and through 2013. His most offensive off-forehand and DTL are just not as lethal.

Great analysis and 100% true. But is Thiem good enough (both physically and mentally) to exploit Nadal's decline? Sure, Nadal has declined from his beastly peak, but a compromised and "old" Rafa is still one hell of an obstacle on this court.

 

[WhiskeyEE]

His forehand hasn't improved at all actually. His backhand has. The reason he misfires less on the forehand is he hits more backhands. So he isn't constantly running around the court hitting forehands from bad positions with poor preparation.

 

[TennisFan3]

Great analysis and 100% true. But is Thiem good enough (both physically and mentally) to exploit Nadal's decline? Sure, Nadal has declined from his beastly peak, but a compromised and "old" Rafa is still one hell of an obstacle on this court.

I agree. Nadal has been beaten only twice on this court. It takes a lot to win 3 sets of him in Paris. Thiem doesn't have the power/offense of a 2009 Soderling nor the peak level of a 2015 Djokovic.
So in balance, Rafa should prevail, even playing scrappy tennis and just fighting as he always does. But a bad day at office for Nadal, could certainly mean a victory for the young challenger.

 

[D.Nalby12]

Going to watch this cuz I like Thiem backhand.

 

[TennisFan3]

His forehand hasn't improved at all actually. His backhand has. The reason he misfires less on the forehand is he hits more backhands. So he isn't constantly running around the court hitting forehands from bad positions with poor preparation.

His backhand has improved, yes. But his forehand has declined independently of the backhand. Part of the reason is the footwork. He is slower to get in position and sometimes doesn't get to ball early enough to change direction (leading to less accuracy on DTL and I/o forehand). His follow-through is also a little exaggerated which results in less penetration.
I also feel it is a confidence issue. He prefers to play safe and hit towards the middle of the court. In the past, even when he used to hit short with the forehand, it used to be at a sharp angle, which would mean the spin would yank his opponent off court. These days it sometimes just sits up in the middle of the court.

When he tries to be more offensive he starts to miss more as in AO 2017 final and in Miami vs Federer. To be sure, Moya is helping, but I feel that there is ways to go before Nadal gets his confidence back completely on that wing.