2017 FO SF - [4] Nadal vs [6] Thiem
- Thread starter Adv. Edberg
- Start date
Excellent point on thiem's % of 1st serve returns won at RG. There is no question, he is stepping in and taking the return earlier like Rome but let's see come Friday.It is going to be pretty windy Friday. I know Rafa went deeper in Monte Carlo, but they both had a week off after Barcelona. Stamina or tiredness disadvantaging Nadal is unlikely. The difference was it was not deep in the event where Thiem was more likely to be the worse for wear. Djoko found that out the hard way at RG. Thiem has had very light time on court this year at RG so he's in an ideal position; much better than I dared hope for. He absolutely can win RG and could easily do it in straight sets. The days of Thiem gifting breaks or sets are a thing of the past. If he starts doing that it means he's tired and the match is over; see Barcelona final, Auz R16 Goffin, and Rome SF for examples of Thiem losing steam.Its not a pretty thing.
On Rafa being scratchy he just didn't need to do more against Busta floundering on serve (I'm not sure the guy won a 2nd serve point.) He would have looked different in the wind with lower bounces downwind and higher bounces into the wind, but probably not able to hit winners. I think Rafa will adjust very well for the wind, but I'm getting a very happy feeling that his serve is going to be hampered.I am going to rewatch that Busta match like a hawk for how Rafa handled the wind particularly on serve.
Meles
Bionic Poster
Good points, but most Euros know clay pretty well. I'll disagree strongly on Djokovic. He was excellent on clay starting even as early as 2007. He had better stats in 2007 than Thiem had coming into RG this year. Perhaps his slam stamina was not enough and his prime elsewhere started in 2011, but Djokovic had pretty astounding stats on clay considering he had to deal with prime Clayerer and Nadal. 2009 took Nadal 4 sets in Madrid SF. (That Madrid SF scares me if Friday turns into some kind of best of 5 version of that match.
)Soderling and Ferrer never really played like clay courters.
Murray is way, way over rated on hard courts. He's been grass and now clay is probably his best surface.
I don't disagree with your assessments. I think US and Australian players are screwed on clay. Nishikori and Murray have had some success, but the Ninja has faded and has probably started his clay decline this year. Murray trained a lot in Spain when young and has learned to play the serve oriented game on clay starting in 2015 (bad elbow has been killing him this year).
Nadal is a beast on clay. You are seriously delusional if you think anyone could touch him. LOL Chang and Courier winning RG is like a bell weather for a weak field on clay. FFS did Chang take out old Lendl serving underhand for a set and a half. Think about that.
That just is not possible today.Clay courters are extinct like the Jedi in Star Wars or something.
Thiem is the new breed and most diehards say he's not a true clay courter.This is a tremendously high stakes match whiskey.
Thiem's last match with Djokovic would have pegged him as lesser on clay than prime Djokovic with sub-prime Nole beating Thiem early prime. Thiem doesn't have bragging rights over Djokovic yet, but if he beats Nadal and takes RG this year Thiem has some serious bragging rights over anyone who has played on clay. A Thiem win and he's suddenly on the watch list for competing with Nadal and Borg for clay ATG over his career. THIS MATCH IS A BIG DEAL.
Nostradamus
Bionic Poster
does Thiem have the Stamina to go 5 sets with RAFA ? RAFA will make him work like a Dog every point for 5 sets if it goes that far. i think thiem will tire out. and i don't think Thiem can just blow away RAFA in straight sets either so likely we will see many long points...Rafa is very good with revenge matches. Uncle toni is the bill belicheck of tennis. I have voted nadal in 4 but might close it out in three. Rafa's forehand has gotten its sting back
And what the heck happened to Djokovic in 3rd set ?? why did he just tank it like that ?????
JohnnyMac Fan!
Legend
Stop the press. You're supposed to be a Nadal fan.
Sure I am a fan, but I try be as impartial as I can. Don't get me wrong, Nadal can beat current Thiem, but the thing is Nadal is more prone to ups and downs when compared to his younger years. Historically, Nadal improves on the second week of RG, but this year the second week has been underwhelming. His one sided wins don't tell the whole story. Yes he is winning, but his error count is somewhat higher than it should at this stage of the tournament. Thiem who is playing for broke, has managed to retain a low error margin, this means he is at very high confidence level. Nadal is indeed at a high level, but hasn't been scrutinized enough to put him on that zoning state he usually gets by this time of the tournament.
We will have to see.
Can you predict the weather with certainty? A lot will depend on the conditions. Theim is not a pretender anymore, he is as real a contender as it gets but a lot will depend on how both execute their game plans and frankly deal with the conditions. So speaking for myself it's 50/50. The one concern I have with rafa is he has really not been tested but that's not his fault. I wish he had some tougher matches, but he practices enough imo.You sound like a budding @cc0509
Sereger
Hall of Fame
That "small time" will be his next 2 matches (potentially) or next year, cause the clay season will end after this week?
veroniquem
Bionic Poster
He's serving a lot better than "somewhat decently". That has been instrumental in his revival, including on hard.
Nadal is scoring 4th best stats of his career in both 1st serve points and SG won (after 2010, 2012 and 2013) + a staggering career high in 2nd serve pts won, a record 59% (his best until now had been 58% in 2008, 2010 and 2012). People selling his current level short (oh he just hasn't been exposed yet) are in for a big surprise.
ETA: great analysis otherwise.
That "small time" will be his next 2 matches (potentially) or next year, cause the clay season will end after this week?
Most likely tomorrow or Sunday. Definitely not next year.
That "small time" will be his next 2 matches (potentially) or next year, cause the clay season will end after this week?
great avatar btw
veroniquem
Bionic Poster
Hum there is a big difference between Djoko and Nadal at RG.
Meles
Bionic Poster
Other than the backhand and not running around the forehand as much. The big fix for Nadal has been in his serve game with Moya in 2017. He's been much harder to break and he's having more efficient serve games compared to the travails of 2015 and 2016. Nadal in the past has been much more predictable always serving to the backhand. He's now much less predictable than ever in his career.
TennisFan3
Talk Tennis Guru
Those are great stats. His serving, especially, his second serve has definitely improved. Usually Nadal has a tendency to serve slower and safer on clay since he prefers long points as opposed to 1-2 tennis. But, he is definitely placing his serve better and this is probably where Moya has had the most impact.
I'm definitely not selling Nadal short. He was playing very well all through this year, and was very close to winning AO 2017. I'm just comparing Nadal of 2017 to Nadal of the past. He seems a more balanced player now, with a better backhand and more guile on his serve. He is also conserving energy better as evidenced by less time spend on the court. However, he used to be more explosive in the past, with better movement and a better forehand and I think a more dangerous player. His game has evolved with ups and downs. I thought he hit his forehand best in 2008, 2010 and parts of 2013. And his first serve was best in 2010. Is the 2017 Nadal better than ever? He is playing well, but I think the 2008/2010/2013 Nadal beats the current version.
Still Nadal has only lost twice in Paris on clay in 12 years. That is an insane record. I don't believe anyone remaining in the draw has the game to blow Rafa of the court ( as in 2009/2015). However if he falters and is not at his best, he could certainly lose.
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Backhanded Compliment
Legend
yup its all on the line... time to rise to the occasion... great champions dont fluke themselves into a title. They beat the champions. If Thiem can beat Nole and Rafa en route to a final... even if he loses to Murray 9(???Good points, but most Euros know clay pretty well. I'll disagree strongly on Djokovic. He was excellent on clay starting even as early as 2007. He had better stats in 2007 than Thiem had coming into RG this year. Perhaps his slam stamina was not enough and his prime elsewhere started in 2011, but Djokovic had pretty astounding stats on clay considering he had to deal with prime Clayerer and Nadal. 2009 took Nadal 4 sets in Madrid SF. (That Madrid SF scares me if Friday turns into some kind of best of 5 version of that match.
Soderling and Ferrer never really played like clay courters.
Murray is way, way over rated on hard courts. He's been grass and now clay is probably his best surface.
I don't disagree with your assessments. I think US and Australian players are screwed on clay. Nishikori and Murray have had some success, but the Ninja has faded and has probably started his clay decline this year. Murray trained a lot in Spain when young and has learned to play the serve oriented game on clay starting in 2015 (bad elbow has been killing him this year).
Nadal is a beast on clay. You are seriously delusional if you think anyone could touch him. LOL Chang and Courier winning RG is like a bell weather for a weak field on clay. FFS did Chang take out old Lendl serving underhand for a set and a half. Think about that.
Clay courters are extinct like the Jedi in Star Wars or something.
This is a tremendously high stakes match whiskey.
) or Stan in the final I still think this is potentially the crucial match where Thiem comes of age.
TennisFan3
Talk Tennis Guru
He is serving better for sure especially on the second serve (where he leads the stats). I still believe that his first serve was far superior for most of 2010 (where he was nearing 130 mph+) and even more consistent for a large part of 2013.Other than the backhand and not running around the forehand as much. The big fix for Nadal has been in his serve game with Moya in 2017. He's been much harder to break and he's having more efficient serve games compared to the travails of 2015 and 2016. Nadal in the past has been much more predictable always serving to the backhand. He's now much less predictable than ever in his career.
His backhand has also improved. It brings back memories of 2009 AO.
BTW running around the backhand is not a bad thing for some of these top guys. They are more dangerous when they do that than hitting a regulation backhand. Both Nadal and Federer can take over the point many times when they run around the backhand and hit an offensive inside out forehand. If the shot is hit well enough, the point is over and no need to worry about covering the open court.
Moose Malloy
G.O.A.T.
Meles
Bionic Poster
I just watched the Busta match with a keen eye on the wind. Nadal was broken serving downwind twice. Basically his serve did not kick and hand cuff Busta as much and so more solid contact was made. The Busta balls into the wind were of course heavier and sometimes Rafa would just miss deep or on the sideline. On the bloopier Busta offerings Rafa often was finding the net cord. Busta got him with a drop shot plus a few slices caused some issues. Rafa's shots were very imposing downwind as he spun and hit the ball hard and it really got through the court, but again Busta did not get killed by the spin. Rafa serving into the wind was wildly effective everything was kicking like a mule and he could really swing freely with the wind amplified topspin. Busta struggled mightily with the high balls. Sometimes Busta could get some solid strikes in and get the error, but generally Rafa just hung further back and tracked all of Busta's big shots down bringing them back with heavy spin which allowed him time to get back into position. Even when Rafa hit short into the wind it was still quite heavy so Busta did not really capitalize on those shots.
Busta had trouble controlling the ball downwind. When he was into the wind it was very hard to hit or serve by Rafa. Busta was 0 for 6 on 2nd serve points and his injury was clearly affecting his serve. Between that and the wind Busta won only 37% of first serve points.
How might this play with Thiem? Thiem downwind will be able to spin more than Busta and first strike more effectively, but once Rafa gets the balls kicking it will be interesting to see what Thiem does. He'll probably be forced to play back some and wait for the ball to drop some. Taking the ball really early is possible, but problematic as the heavy spin will not be easy to time. Slices will be hard to keep in play, so Thiem will have to hit over the ball when downwind on those high kicking balls. I could see Thiem tracking backwards on his backhand and hitting heavy off the back foot with wicked effectiveness downwind.
Into the wind, Thiem may struggle as Rafa's shots will be on him quickly, but Thiem will be able to hit very hard and heavy like Nadal against Busta with dropshot opportunities opening up. Rafa did not like Busta's slightly heavy balls hit into the wind so Thiem's may cause trouble.
Rafa only had 5 winners and 11 UEs in the match. Thiem had a good positive ratio in the wind against Djokovic.
Busta was hapless into the wind on serve. Thiem will fare much, much better as he can hit very hard and has much, much more kick on his serves like Rafa. Rafa is really going to have to move well when Thiem is serving into the wind.
Wind speed around today's early matches was probably 13-14 mph on average with gusts. Friday is forecast for 10-11 mph on average
Busta had trouble controlling the ball downwind. When he was into the wind it was very hard to hit or serve by Rafa. Busta was 0 for 6 on 2nd serve points and his injury was clearly affecting his serve. Between that and the wind Busta won only 37% of first serve points.
How might this play with Thiem? Thiem downwind will be able to spin more than Busta and first strike more effectively, but once Rafa gets the balls kicking it will be interesting to see what Thiem does. He'll probably be forced to play back some and wait for the ball to drop some. Taking the ball really early is possible, but problematic as the heavy spin will not be easy to time. Slices will be hard to keep in play, so Thiem will have to hit over the ball when downwind on those high kicking balls.
I could see Thiem tracking backwards on his backhand and hitting heavy off the back foot with wicked effectiveness downwind.Into the wind, Thiem may struggle as Rafa's shots will be on him quickly, but Thiem will be able to hit very hard and heavy like Nadal against Busta with dropshot opportunities opening up. Rafa did not like Busta's slightly heavy balls hit into the wind so Thiem's may cause trouble.
Rafa only had 5 winners and 11 UEs in the match. Thiem had a good positive ratio in the wind against Djokovic.
Busta was hapless into the wind on serve. Thiem will fare much, much better as he can hit very hard and has much, much more kick on his serves like Rafa. Rafa is really going to have to move well when Thiem is serving into the wind.
Wind speed around today's early matches was probably 13-14 mph on average with gusts. Friday is forecast for 10-11 mph on average
mightyrick
Legend
Agreed, his serve (for his standards) is excellent right now. If he keeps this level of serving up, it will be the same serve level he had in the 2013 US Open Series.
He's basically hitting all of his shots harder... but the added pop on his serve has really given him a leg-up winning easier points on his service games.
Meles
Bionic Poster
Nadal may hit that serve again on hard courts later this year. Last year he was tinkering and saw some 213 kph boomers on clay and some in the 206-207 range. He's not doing that this year on clay as he doesn't like the return coming back on him quickly and I doubt he was hitting that serve on clay in 2010.
Thiem runs around his backhand like crazy, but he won't do that at all when Nadal is hitting downwind to him Friday. Nadal may be purposely not running around as much. His backhand is much better and it allows him to defend the wide forehand better. Players are hitting harder and harder and are very good at retaliating if they track down a wide angle. I suspect not running around has actually helped Oldal quite a bit.
Tsonga has been a master of the runaround forehand this year. As players hit harder and harder it's not so easy a shot to pull off. When Nadal is kicking hard Thiem gets into all sorts of trouble trying to runaround his forehand (Barcelona and Madrid to some extent) as Rafa's heavy shots get on him quicker than he's used to and higher. He must have hit a million forehands long later in the Barcelona match trying to crank on those high balls and runaround them.
Tennisanity
Legend
Not anymore generally.
Meles
Bionic Poster
LOL and I saw the match live.
Still unbelievably weak era on clay with Lendl and Wilander falling off on clay.Exactly, lest people forget, I suggest they watch past videos of how he hits his cross court two hander when a right hander tries to draw him off the court with a short angle forehand (Djokovic many times and I recall thiem doing it once in the Madrid final). The response is a flat cannonball hit with tremendous pace and margin and it's a thing of beauty when it's on.
Meles
Bionic Poster
This may be the last time we see a form of prime Nadal on clay (2015-2016 were a no, but pretty strong stats nonetheless compared to any other player, but the serve was horrible.) We have a fair fight on Friday and no guarantees Nadal will be healthy next year, declined, etc. (I hope he's got more years like this because Thiem will be better next year.) You just don't have many qualtiy clashes like this with such a large age gap (Zedbot vs ****** on grass would be a crazy gap).yup its all on the line... time to rise to the occasion... great champions dont fluke themselves into a title. They beat the champions. If Thiem can beat Nole and Rafa en route to a final... even if he loses to Murray 9(???
By the stats coming into RG Thiem is clearly a good sized peg below Rafa, but somehow he's competed well in their last two matches. I posted the Thiem stats in another thread for RG....
{The scary thing is Thiem is still building form this year without the physical problems of last year. Two big, big differences for Thiem this year:
1. First return - this was ballyhooed by the ATP on hard courts last year ( http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/thiem-infosys-2016-return-improvements ), but it never really transferred to clay. Now with this Djokovic match and the Rome result its becoming clear that the Thiem return game is massively improved. Today, Thiem won a whopping 43.3% of first return points with a slew of deep bunts within two feet of the baseline. Thiem also did this to Nadal in Rome winning 45.3% of first return points. For RG through the Djokovic match Thiem is 41.4% on first return and 64.0% on 2nd return for a whopping 48.9% of return points won. Nadal career is 46.6% return points won and 38.8% on first return. The fact that we are even discussing Thiem's return game in the same breath with Nadal is utterly amazing. The first return is the key as it means Thiem can break at any time even if the server is hitting a lot of first serves.
2. Serve game - serve stats aren't up a ton this year. Maybe a percent on serve points won, but Thiem is very adept at getting out of holes like 0-40, and 15-40 (saved two set points with Djoko at 15-40 today and three in Madrid against Rafa). At RG Thiem's first serve won is an exceptional 84.2%. Before RG Thiem was saving 66.7% of break points.
The call was not that hard on Thiem earlier this year for clay because the serve game was evident on hard courts and his returning at the end of the clay season last year was more impressive. Thiem with his RG run has exceeded my wildest expectations and its obvious he's the most resilient clay courter besides Rafa. Thiem's only weakness is huge servers and they are all gone at RG.
A large part of the domination today was the wind neutering Nole's game as usual.
Thiem played exceptionally well in the wind.}
Meles
Bionic Poster
Another retread from another thread:
{I haven't really thought about it. One thing is on my mind..... Rome was hot (80F) and fast favoring servers (advantage Thiem). Forecast for Friday is earlier start with high of only 74 F plus 0.3 inches of rain the night before, but possibly a bit breezy like today's match again. Much of the speed of the ball is decided by air pressure too. Tuesday with the front coming through pressure was quite low in Paris. More dense air slows the conditions. Same air pressure for Thiem's match with Djokovic, but cooler temperatures. Hmmm. In graphic below of Ideal Gas law moles over Volume is close to density.
We see here the obvious that higher pressure means higher density and lower temperature means higher density. Higher air density translates to slower conditions. The twist for Friday may be that though we have lower temperatures than Rome (slower), it is because of that rain front having moved through. When the warm air is forced up, it causes surface air pressure to drop, sort of like having a small vacuum develop at the earth's surface at the boundary between the two air masses. Cold air rushes in to fill the area of lower air pressure, which causes more warm air to be displaced upward, cold air moves in, and we have wind.
What does this mean for Friday? Conditions will be probably fast like the Rome Thiem vs. Nadal match, but air pressure will be lower which will cause the balls to bounce more. That bounce may favor Rafa as it did in Madrid at altitude where the balls bounce higher (same pressure in ball, but less pressure outside the ball). This should be a balance between the conditions we saw in Rome and Madrid, but any factor giving Nadal more bounce height is going to cause issues for Thiem from both sides of the ball.
This match may boil down to who is the better wind player (Nadal damn good.) Thiem had a very, very effective slice game today against Djokovic; that will be much harder to pull off versus Nadal. We'll see how low Rafa can go as Thiem most likely to slice into the wind which will give him more slice and cutting action to skid through. Generally both Thiem and Nadal gobble up slices.
My initial weather thoughts.}
{I haven't really thought about it. One thing is on my mind..... Rome was hot (80F) and fast favoring servers (advantage Thiem). Forecast for Friday is earlier start with high of only 74 F plus 0.3 inches of rain the night before, but possibly a bit breezy like today's match again. Much of the speed of the ball is decided by air pressure too. Tuesday with the front coming through pressure was quite low in Paris. More dense air slows the conditions. Same air pressure for Thiem's match with Djokovic, but cooler temperatures. Hmmm. In graphic below of Ideal Gas law moles over Volume is close to density.
We see here the obvious that higher pressure means higher density and lower temperature means higher density. Higher air density translates to slower conditions. The twist for Friday may be that though we have lower temperatures than Rome (slower), it is because of that rain front having moved through. When the warm air is forced up, it causes surface air pressure to drop, sort of like having a small vacuum develop at the earth's surface at the boundary between the two air masses. Cold air rushes in to fill the area of lower air pressure, which causes more warm air to be displaced upward, cold air moves in, and we have wind.
What does this mean for Friday? Conditions will be probably fast like the Rome Thiem vs. Nadal match, but air pressure will be lower which will cause the balls to bounce more. That bounce may favor Rafa as it did in Madrid at altitude where the balls bounce higher (same pressure in ball, but less pressure outside the ball). This should be a balance between the conditions we saw in Rome and Madrid, but any factor giving Nadal more bounce height is going to cause issues for Thiem from both sides of the ball.
This match may boil down to who is the better wind player (Nadal damn good.) Thiem had a very, very effective slice game today against Djokovic; that will be much harder to pull off versus Nadal.
We'll see how low Rafa can go as Thiem most likely to slice into the wind which will give him more slice and cutting action to skid through. Generally both Thiem and Nadal gobble up slices.My initial weather thoughts.
}
Meles
Bionic Poster
Here is my analysis from Rome:
{Amazingly no one has taken this match very seriously given that Thiem was one point away from putting Nadal under the most severe pressure last Sunday; a Nadal in prime form. Their other encounter was just as close until Thiem hit the wall late in the first set.
Here are reasons Thiem might win tomorrow:
1. This is just a QF, Nadal won't be quite as pumped and focused (well maybe)
2. Thiem has played two less matches before reaching Nadal versus Madrid or Barcelona
3. Thiem now has a limitied fear factor with Nadal after going toe to toe in Madrid final means less pressure on Thiem
4. The Madrid crowd was wonderfully behaved, but still very pro Rafa (unlike those fools in Miami for Fed vs Kyrgios). Much more neutral crowd in Rome.
5. Conditions may actually be faster in Rome this year. Servebots doing well in Rome this time and Thiem certainly has a bit more go in the serve department.
6. Bounce height is lower in Rome due to lower altitude plus a slicker clay surface (servebots reigning in Rome backs this up.) Thiem has trouble on both sides with high bouncing balls forcing him into more loopy shots. Thiem may be able to unload a lot more in lower boucing Rome conditions.
7. Thiem is getting better as time moves on, learning, growing, getting stronger and its a week later with lessons learned from last time. Nadal getting older and perhaps wiser, but facing age issues, etc.
8. Sock almost broke Nadal several times yesterday - Sock is not a great returner, so this may imply some vulnerability in the Nadal serve game in these conditions.
9. NO CARLOS MOYA - Moya is not in Rome so Rafa may not be as sharp on strategy
10. Thiem getting more groupies in Rome or fans - against Querrey quite a bit of Dom I Nic chanting at the end. An ego boost for Thiem over Madrid
Ten good reasons Thiem will win this in two sets tomorrow. The biggest one is the Thiem forehand will hunt with the lower bounce.}
Which of these apply at RG?:
2. Thiem will be well rested for this match again
3. Thiem has no fear factor except first time on Chatrier
4. Neutral or even pro-Thiem crowd possible after big Djokovic win
7. Thiem getting better and better still
8. Busta broke Nadal twice while he was serving downwind in their set of QF tennis
Which has Nadal reversed:
1. Huge, huge match
9. CARLOS MOYA
10. Nadal very comfortable at RG
Conditions:
5 & 6 are much more about the wind which may help Thiem overall. Rafa's serve downwind may be vulnerable.
So now this is 10 good reasons I can't predict the RG SF.
{Amazingly no one has taken this match very seriously given that Thiem was one point away from putting Nadal under the most severe pressure last Sunday; a Nadal in prime form. Their other encounter was just as close until Thiem hit the wall late in the first set.
Here are reasons Thiem might win tomorrow:
1. This is just a QF, Nadal won't be quite as pumped and focused (well maybe
)2. Thiem has played two less matches before reaching Nadal versus Madrid or Barcelona
3. Thiem now has a limitied fear factor with Nadal after going toe to toe in Madrid final means less pressure on Thiem
4. The Madrid crowd was wonderfully behaved, but still very pro Rafa (unlike those fools in Miami for Fed vs Kyrgios
). Much more neutral crowd in Rome.5. Conditions may actually be faster in Rome this year. Servebots doing well in Rome this time and Thiem certainly has a bit more go in the serve department.
6. Bounce height is lower in Rome due to lower altitude plus a slicker clay surface (servebots reigning in Rome backs this up.) Thiem has trouble on both sides with high bouncing balls forcing him into more loopy shots. Thiem may be able to unload a lot more in lower boucing Rome conditions.
7. Thiem is getting better as time moves on, learning, growing, getting stronger and its a week later with lessons learned from last time. Nadal getting older and perhaps wiser, but facing age issues, etc.
8. Sock almost broke Nadal several times yesterday - Sock is not a great returner, so this may imply some vulnerability in the Nadal serve game in these conditions.
9. NO CARLOS MOYA - Moya is not in Rome so Rafa may not be as sharp on strategy
10. Thiem getting more groupies in Rome or fans - against Querrey quite a bit of Dom I Nic chanting at the end. An ego boost for Thiem over Madrid
Ten good reasons Thiem will win this in two sets tomorrow.
The biggest one is the Thiem forehand will hunt with the lower bounce.}Which of these apply at RG?:
2. Thiem will be well rested for this match again
3. Thiem has no fear factor except first time on Chatrier
4. Neutral or even pro-Thiem crowd possible after big Djokovic win
7. Thiem getting better and better still
8. Busta broke Nadal twice while he was serving downwind in their set of QF tennis
Which has Nadal reversed:
1. Huge, huge match
9. CARLOS MOYA
10. Nadal very comfortable at RG
Conditions:
5 & 6 are much more about the wind which may help Thiem overall.
Rafa's serve downwind may be vulnerable.So now this is 10 good reasons I can't predict the RG SF.
cc0509
Talk Tennis Guru
You sound like a budding @cc0509
Just wait buddy and see if Thiem can beat Nadal and then Stan/Andy. If he does that or even if he beats Nadal on Chatrier, I'll be impressed. Beating a terrible form and tanking Djokovic isn't all that, I hate to break it to you. Djokovic gave up because he knew his tennis wasn't good enough to compete with the KoC.
cc0509
Talk Tennis Guru
Compared to where it was from 2014-2016? Yes it has! He's recently got the forehand back to almost its best.
cc0509
Talk Tennis Guru
Compromised and old Rafa? LOL, what are some of you watching? His forehand has returned to close to its best, his bh has improved tremendously, his movement looks great, his serve has improved a lot and he has no Djokovic in good form to worry about. I can't see how he'll lose this title.
Thiem, Stan or Murray would have to play out of their minds and zone like animals to take three sets off Nadal on Chatrier IMO.
The Green Mile
Bionic Poster
The fourth time they will meet on clay this season. Amazing. Anyone know of any more rivals that met four or more times on clay during a single year? I know Djoker and Rafa met in 09 four times, with Rafa going 4-0. Any more?
Backhanded Compliment
Legend
The 1st time on Chatrier might rattle Thiem or help inspire him into the zone... this is the match weve all (or at least many) wanted from RG this yearHere is my analysis from Rome:
{Amazingly no one has taken this match very seriously given that Thiem was one point away from putting Nadal under the most severe pressure last Sunday; a Nadal in prime form. Their other encounter was just as close until Thiem hit the wall late in the first set.
Here are reasons Thiem might win tomorrow:
1. This is just a QF, Nadal won't be quite as pumped and focused (well maybe
2. Thiem has played two less matches before reaching Nadal versus Madrid or Barcelona
3. Thiem now has a limitied fear factor with Nadal after going toe to toe in Madrid final means less pressure on Thiem
4. The Madrid crowd was wonderfully behaved, but still very pro Rafa (unlike those fools in Miami for Fed vs Kyrgios
5. Conditions may actually be faster in Rome this year. Servebots doing well in Rome this time and Thiem certainly has a bit more go in the serve department.
6. Bounce height is lower in Rome due to lower altitude plus a slicker clay surface (servebots reigning in Rome backs this up.) Thiem has trouble on both sides with high bouncing balls forcing him into more loopy shots. Thiem may be able to unload a lot more in lower boucing Rome conditions.
7. Thiem is getting better as time moves on, learning, growing, getting stronger and its a week later with lessons learned from last time. Nadal getting older and perhaps wiser, but facing age issues, etc.
8. Sock almost broke Nadal several times yesterday - Sock is not a great returner, so this may imply some vulnerability in the Nadal serve game in these conditions.
9. NO CARLOS MOYA - Moya is not in Rome so Rafa may not be as sharp on strategy
10. Thiem getting more groupies in Rome or fans - against Querrey quite a bit of Dom I Nic chanting at the end. An ego boost for Thiem over Madrid
Ten good reasons Thiem will win this in two sets tomorrow.
Which of these apply at RG?:
2. Thiem will be well rested for this match again
3. Thiem has no fear factor except first time on Chatrier
4. Neutral or even pro-Thiem crowd possible after big Djokovic win
7. Thiem getting better and better still
8. Busta broke Nadal twice while he was serving downwind in their set of QF tennis
Which has Nadal reversed:
1. Huge, huge match
9. CARLOS MOYA
10. Nadal very comfortable at RG
Conditions:
5 & 6 are much more about the wind which may help Thiem overall.
So now this is 10 good reasons I can't predict the RG SF.
Stan and Thiem would be taken seriously by anyone watching the 2017 French Open... Rafa too ofc. All three are dangerous clay courtiers...
abmk
Bionic Poster
LOL and I saw the match live.
Lol, unless you time travelled or this was in some parallel universe.
You are not fooling anyone - it's obvious to anyone with half a brain and who has followed your posts that you didn't watch tennis before 2015.
MichaelNadal
Bionic Poster
Do we really have to wait till tomorrow? Ugh I can't wait.
The Green Mile
Bionic Poster
Another one. Rafa and Ferrer met in 2013, with Rafa also going 4-0. LOL, they also met three times in 2012, 3-0 to Rafa. Unlucky Ferrer...
Lord Anomander
Professional
But isn't it somewhat wrong/optimistic to compare Thiem's RG return stats to Nadal's career average? I mean considering Nadal was beasting at RG (and clay in general) almost every year, it might be valid, but in general maintaining a high career average is much harder than having an amazing run.
I hope that Thiem has the advantage insofar as Nadal hasn't been battle tested at all. However, Thiem hasn't had many hard matches either, probably only the first set against Novak.
I'm really excited for tomorrow's match and hope we won't be disappointed.
TheGhostOfAgassi
Talk Tennis Guru
Here is my analysis from Rome:
{Amazingly no one has taken this match very seriously given that Thiem was one point away from putting Nadal under the most severe pressure last Sunday; a Nadal in prime form. Their other encounter was just as close until Thiem hit the wall late in the first set.
Here are reasons Thiem might win tomorrow:
1. This is just a QF, Nadal won't be quite as pumped and focused (well maybe
2. Thiem has played two less matches before reaching Nadal versus Madrid or Barcelona
3. Thiem now has a limitied fear factor with Nadal after going toe to toe in Madrid final means less pressure on Thiem
4. The Madrid crowd was wonderfully behaved, but still very pro Rafa (unlike those fools in Miami for Fed vs Kyrgios
5. Conditions may actually be faster in Rome this year. Servebots doing well in Rome this time and Thiem certainly has a bit more go in the serve department.
6. Bounce height is lower in Rome due to lower altitude plus a slicker clay surface (servebots reigning in Rome backs this up.) Thiem has trouble on both sides with high bouncing balls forcing him into more loopy shots. Thiem may be able to unload a lot more in lower boucing Rome conditions.
7. Thiem is getting better as time moves on, learning, growing, getting stronger and its a week later with lessons learned from last time. Nadal getting older and perhaps wiser, but facing age issues, etc.
8. Sock almost broke Nadal several times yesterday - Sock is not a great returner, so this may imply some vulnerability in the Nadal serve game in these conditions.
9. NO CARLOS MOYA - Moya is not in Rome so Rafa may not be as sharp on strategy
10. Thiem getting more groupies in Rome or fans - against Querrey quite a bit of Dom I Nic chanting at the end. An ego boost for Thiem over Madrid
Ten good reasons Thiem will win this in two sets tomorrow.
Which of these apply at RG?:
2. Thiem will be well rested for this match again
3. Thiem has no fear factor except first time on Chatrier
4. Neutral or even pro-Thiem crowd possible after big Djokovic win
7. Thiem getting better and better still
8. Busta broke Nadal twice while he was serving downwind in their set of QF tennis
Which has Nadal reversed:
1. Huge, huge match
9. CARLOS MOYA
10. Nadal very comfortable at RG
Conditions:
5 & 6 are much more about the wind which may help Thiem overall.
So now this is 10 good reasons I can't predict the RG SF.
It is very hard to predict, as both players in form can take out the other.
Think it boils down to small margins and who has a good day really. Those two are the best clay players at the moment. Nadal has to play his best to beat Thiem (I havent seen any stats, but with my naked eye it looks like Thiem is playing his best tennis ever right now, even better than a couple of weeks ago).
Both had not a lot of time on court in RG so being tired is not an issue. Rafa yesterday was not that impressive, getting broken by an injured opponent and not serving well.
Will Thiem be mentally up for this after he brutally beat Novak? Because the match was an easy win for Thiem, I think he will be more than ready for Rafa. Thiem seem to have changed in terms of being ON from the first game of the match and goes full force, before he lost focus more often. Its important he doesnt waste opportunities, and take advantage when Rafa doing mistakes, important to convert BP, cause those chances doesnt come often vs Rafa. Since both in form and can take out the other, the mental aspect here is crucial. Thiems win in Rome over Rafa was a big learning experience for Thiem focus wise, he knows what to do. Whats so cool about Thiem now is that he can be 15-40 down on serve and quite often save the serve and not get broken, he has had some pretty good TBs too, ice in his veins. Hope his shots finds the lines and stays inside the court.
Adv. Edberg
Legend
I think Thiem might win this. He's got a more powerful FH than Nadal which says a lot when it's on.
The Green Mile
Bionic Poster
Rafa to cough up short balls, as Thiem hammers away at his forehand with consistent depth, while holding serve comfortably with 75% 1st serves in and 84% 1st serves won. Thiem in straights.
TheGhostOfAgassi
Talk Tennis Guru
Great interview! Thiem goes into this semi with a very different mindset than last year!
Sereger
Hall of Fame
Nice interview. Love his flip-flops.
falstaff78
Hall of Fame
I will share later today
kalyan4fedever
Legend
Charleneriva
Hall of Fame
At RG this year though, before the QF:
"The Spaniard is winning an absurdly high 77% of his second serve points through four rounds, to be ranked No.1 in this category in Paris in 2017. It’s actually better than his first serve performance, where he is winning 72% of points. That’s beyond comprehension".
icedevil0289
G.O.A.T.
thanks!
vanioMan
Legend
Stan and Andy are first on PC at about 1 PM local time. Rafa and Thiem after them.
Charleneriva
Hall of Fame
Other than the backhand and not running around the forehand as much. The big fix for Nadal has been in his serve game with Moya in 2017. He's been much harder to break and he's having more efficient serve games compared to the travails of 2015 and 2016. Nadal in the past has been much more predictable always serving to the backhand. He's now much less predictable than ever in his career.
Yeah. For the life of me I don't know why it took him that long to at least fix his predictability. I'm his fan but I gotta admit that sometimes hindered my enjoyment of the match somewhat.
I'm with JohnyMac's Fan in that I'm very a very cautious fan and despite all the praises and stats, I haven't got that feeling of certainty like in the olds day yet. Probably will never again even. I still believe in his game and heart but am somewhat wary of his nerve. Believe me, I almost always expect him to lose the oppening point of the match on his serve or win it when he's receiving LOL. And even the stats support my suspicion abt his low % won on the 15-0s and the difference when he wins it from when he loses it. It's HUGE. He's almost unbreakable just by winning that point.
icedevil0289
G.O.A.T.
lol damn its so hard for you to give credit to the young ones. thiem put on a decent performance regardless of form on the other side. also some atg djokovic is if thats his mind set. sounds like more like something a hc novak would say than anything else and i know you are anything but. whine about how no one is challenging the older gen, when someone does it's oh well....the other guy was playing poorly. i mean no **** that thiem will have his work cut out for him if he plays nadal. only two people have beat him here, one being djokovic so this post is so weird to me. I have yet to see the evidence where he said he tanked to avoid nadal and for someone who is on novak fans about drawing conclusions in regards to his personal life, there are quite a few drawn conclusions here as well.
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