2017 French Open FINAL: [3] Stan Wawrinka vs. [4] Rafael Nadal

Who will win?


  • Total voters
    207

Warmaster

Hall of Fame
Nadal in 3 or 4 if he starts slowly.

Full respect to the Stanimal, but he's not beating Nadal playing close to his best at RG.
 

Obnavox

Rookie
Even Stanimal in full-on Stamimal mode can't best this superhuman version of Nadal. Nadal is playing a different game than anyone else on this surface. Nadal in 3 easily.
 

eliars

Hall of Fame
The way I see Stan winning is by working the angles. Partciularly the crosscourt backhand.

Nadal's crosscourt forehand has declined pretty severely. So if Wawrinka can take that backhand early (stands a much better chance at doing so than Thiem) and get Nadal moving a lot laterally and be able to punctuate without overcommitting and overhitting then he's in with a good shot. If Wawrinka wins this battle then he still has to hit the follow up shots well.

Just hope both produce their best and Wawrinka challenges Nadal.
 

Charleneriva

Hall of Fame
OP said they waited until after the match, unlike the other two...I go with that

Yeah, I think there should be a rule or something. Now matter how the ongoing match looks like, I still feel it's bit disrespectful to the players who are still playing out there. Of course the early posters don't mean it. But we all should wait until the last point is won to open new match threads. Some minutes aren't that much.
 

Parabolica

Semi-Pro
I got Stan in 4. Like i said in the other thread, Stan will actually wear down and blast Rafa off the court towards the end. It really wont be close in the rallies. Now, Stan just has to play mentally tough and not let Rafas moonballing tactics get to him.
 

metsman

Talk Tennis Guru
People thinking this is the old Nadal are highly mistaken. He doesn't have the same movement and crosscourt forehand to instantly make BBQ Chicken of any one hander he'd play on this court. He hasn't faced a single player playing well this whole tournament. He's attackable and if anyone can pull off a Soderling and consistently bludgeon the ball off both wings while mixing in some variety, it is Stan. It'll take a tremendous performance for Stan to pull this off, better than the 2015 final even, but no one should be doubting whether he's capable of that performance because he definitely is, even if it isn't all that likely. Nadal is the favorite, even the firm favorite, but people counting how many games Stan wins are jumping the gun to an extreme degree. I think the match is on Stan's racket more than people think. If he's consistent, I honestly think at this point in Nadal's career that Stan has more to trouble Nadal with than the other way around, in terms of weapons. Nadal's crosscourt forehand used to draw short balls and misses from one handers like crazy, that's not the case anymore, especially for one as good as Stan's. I'll say Nadal 65/35

Either way, this is the final I wanted, I'll be happy for both guys.
 

maratha_warrior

Hall of Fame
Rafa wins easily in 3 or 4 sets..
Stan has declined after 2015 . His AO 2014 & RG 15 are great wins . But USO 16 win was against an Injured Novak who should have lost before the quarters, reached final only bcoz of walkovers..
 

Krish872007

Talk Tennis Guru
What would he need to beat his games won % from 2008?

2008 Games Won %: 128/169 = 75.7%

2017 - currently at: 98/127 = 77.2%

So we can break it down into several scenarios, but it's most likely to happen in a straight set match.

For 3 set match with no tie-breaks or 7-5 sets: would need 116/153 to just beat his 2008 tally, i.e. concede 8 games or less (e.g. 6-3, 6-2, 6-3)
With 1 x 7-5 or 7-6 set: again, drop no more than 8 games. So the other two sets would need to be blowouts. (e.g. 7-6, 6-1, 6-1)

With 2 x 7-5 or 7-6 sets: drop no more than 7 games - IMPOSSIBLE.
 

tennisaddict

Bionic Poster
If Stan feels good physically he can hang with Rafa.

Andy Murray was too solid today in defense and Stan still found a way. Stan has to work a little harder and not waste as many breaks that he did today and he can make the upset.

It needs an enormous effort but Stan is fully capable of that. Remember Rafa will get nervous as he nears the finish line . Stan is the underdog and he can play with nothing to lose
 

Kozzy

Hall of Fame
Anything can happen, but I think Rafa will prevail. Stan is no spring chicken, and he will probably be a bit tired - Rafa is fresh and super motivated. If Rafa blinks, Stan can take advantage, for sure, but that's a big if. I don't really see it happening. Anyway, should be a fun match to watch, and hopefully competitive throughout, with both playing their best.
 

ultradr

Legend
People thinking this is the old Nadal are highly mistaken. He doesn't have the same movement and crosscourt forehand to instantly make BBQ Chicken of any one hander he'd play on this court. He hasn't faced a single player playing well this whole tournament. He's attackable and if anyone can pull off a Soderling and consistently bludgeon the ball off both wings while mixing in some variety, it is Stan. It'll take a tremendous performance for Stan to pull this off, better than the 2015 final even, but no one should be doubting whether he's capable of that performance because he definitely is, even if it isn't all that likely. Nadal is the favorite, even the firm favorite, but people counting how many games Stan wins are jumping the gun to an extreme degree. I think the match is on Stan's racket more than people think. If he's consistent, I honestly think at this point in Nadal's career that Stan has more to trouble Nadal with than the other way around, in terms of weapons. Nadal's crosscourt forehand used to draw short balls and misses from one handers like crazy, that's not the case anymore, especially for one as good as Stan's. I'll say Nadal 65/35

Either way, this is the final I wanted, I'll be happy for both guys.

I generally agree with your assessment but
Nadal is serving great and he is displaying similar clutch plays, glimps of his peak.
Note that Rafa won RG 2014 with lower back injury, occasionally serving 70 mph.
This is good enough version of Nadal particularly for RG.
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
If Stan beats Nadal in a FO final he's an ATG to me.

It's possible but he needs to be in full Stanimal mode and Nadal has to be a little off. Very small chances of that happening so I'm taking Nadal in 3, maybe 4 if Stan redlines his game for a while.
 

Fedole

Semi-Pro
If Stan wins he is the GOAT. But pretty sure Nadal in 3.

Whatever happens, Stan has given tennis an incredible boost ever since that crazy 5 setter against the Djoker in 2013. Tennis back then, for me, was stagnant. Federer was declining, Murray was coming more and more into the picture and generally Djokovic and Nadal fought for most of the big titles. I, and I think a few others also, found that period extremely boring. But then Stan came onto the scene.

The way he plays is admirable, more so than any of the other current top 4. He may only really turn up for a couple of tournaments every year, but ****, when he does, its one of *the* main highlights of the tennis year. All three of his slam wins have been absolutely magic, but I cannot see him doing it this time. Genuinely, its more unfathomable than when he played Nadal at the Aus in 2014. I hope that, if he does lose, he will still put up some heavy resistance. Allez!
 

KINGROGER

G.O.A.T.
If Stan wins he is the GOAT. But pretty sure Nadal in 3.

Whatever happens, Stan has given tennis an incredible boost ever since that crazy 5 setter against the Djoker in 2013. Tennis back then, for me, was stagnant. Federer was declining, Murray was coming more and more into the picture and generally Djokovic and Nadal fought for most of the big titles. I, and I think a few others also, found that period extremely boring. But then Stan came onto the scene.

The way he plays is admirable, more so than any of the other current top 4. He may only really turn up for a couple of tournaments every year, but ****, when he does, its one of *the* main highlights of the tennis year. All three of his slam wins have been absolutely magic, but I cannot see him doing it this time. Genuinely, its more unfathomable than when he played Nadal at the Aus in 2014. I hope that, if he does lose, he will still put up some heavy resistance. Allez!
He really has saved tennis.

Imagine Djokovic winning 6 straight slams vs pigeon Murray and grandpa Fed between 15 AO - 16 RG???
 
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People thinking this is the old Nadal are highly mistaken. He doesn't have the same movement and crosscourt forehand to instantly make BBQ Chicken of any one hander he'd play on this court. He hasn't faced a single player playing well this whole tournament. He's attackable and if anyone can pull off a Soderling and consistently bludgeon the ball off both wings while mixing in some variety, it is Stan. It'll take a tremendous performance for Stan to pull this off, better than the 2015 final even, but no one should be doubting whether he's capable of that performance because he definitely is, even if it isn't all that likely. Nadal is the favorite, even the firm favorite, but people counting how many games Stan wins are jumping the gun to an extreme degree. I think the match is on Stan's racket more than people think. If he's consistent, I honestly think at this point in Nadal's career that Stan has more to trouble Nadal with than the other way around, in terms of weapons. Nadal's crosscourt forehand used to draw short balls and misses from one handers like crazy, that's not the case anymore, especially for one as good as Stan's. I'll say Nadal 65/35

Either way, this is the final I wanted, I'll be happy for both guys.
very fair analysis, hoping for a great match... Stan's improved return can also be a factor

If anyone deserves La Decima at one Slam tournament, it's Nadal. That's tempting me to support him even though I have hardly ever been on his side.

Never underestimate Wawrinka though, he can flip a switch and play like a man possessed out of nowhere.

agreed... I like the fact that both Rafa and Stan are such distinct and idiomatic players
 

KingKyrgios

Professional
Oh boy i would want nothing more than to see Humbullitos false dawn exposed by our lord and savior of tennis Stan the Man Wawrinka
 

Jaitock1991

Hall of Fame
Stan has been there and done that in the finals. He knows what he should do to win. Stan can beat him and he will beat him in 4 sets.
Nadal has not been tested thus far. He will feel the pressure when things gets tight. The result depends on whether Stan capitalizes on that or not.

This is the only factor that makes me believe even for a second that Stan has a chance. Nadal has not really been tested yet, so we may overrate how well he's actually been playing. But then again, maybe he's just played too well to even be tested(Thiem should in theory be a big challenge)? Hard to tell, but if things do get really tight Stan certainly isn't going to fold easily. He's a total beast mentally in these big matches.
 
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This is the only factor that makes me believe even for a second that Stan has a chance. Nadal has not really been tested yet, so we may overrate how well he's actually been playing. But then again, maybe he's just played too well to even be tested(Thiem should in theory be a big challenge)? Hard to tell, but if things do get really tight Stan certainly isn't going to fold easily. He's a total beast mentally in these big matches.
yeah stan has the game to take Rafa completely off script... its a crazy game but it isnt like he hasnt done it several times already.
 

Jonas78

Legend
Dont know what to predict here. I think Rafa is more vulnerable than the games dropped so far tells. Thiem just folded today, but in the first set he had plenty of BP's. Rafa is the favourite but i wont be surprised if Stan takes this. They are both tough fighters who deserve the title. It has been 3 tough years for Rafa and the Brigade, would be a very deserved victory.
 
Anything can happen, but I think Rafa will prevail. Stan is no spring chicken, and he will probably be a bit tired - Rafa is fresh and super motivated. If Rafa blinks, Stan can take advantage, for sure, but that's a big if. I don't really see it happening. Anyway, should be a fun match to watch, and hopefully competitive throughout, with both playing their best.
Stan is pretty much the only player out there who can make Rafa "blink" on clay... he doesnt have to wait for him to do so. Stan has the game.

Dont know what to predict here. I think Rafa is more vulnerable than the games dropped so far tells. Thiem just folded today, but in the first set he had plenty of BP's. Rafa is the favourite but i wont be surprised if Stan takes this. They are both tough fighters who deserve the title. It has been 3 tough years for Rafa and the Brigade, would be a very deserved victory.
Agreed... Stan on an averarge day isnt gonna do it but he could do it as Stanimal. Rafa has had a long hard 3 years.... but yeah Thiem, I think Chatrier+Rafa for a 1st final rattled him. Rafa really has not been tested. Stan will test him and hasnt even peaked yet this FO.
 
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Bukmeikara

Legend
Rafa wins easily in 3 or 4 sets..
Stan has declined after 2015 . His AO 2014 & RG 15 are great wins . But USO 16 win was against an Injured Novak who should have lost before the quarters, reached final only bcoz of walkovers..

He had walkovers against Vesely and Youzhny, guys whom he beats with 3-0 in 9/10. Tsonga retired after being two sets down 2-6 3-6 .... Hard to believe that Novak lose any of those
 

underground

G.O.A.T.
Since 2014, they've played 6 times: tied at 3-3, 1-1 on clay, 1-1 outdoor hard, 1-1 indoor hard. And obviously 1-0 in slams to Stan (the only non straight sets win to either player of the 6).

Just like Stan's previous slam finals, people are quickly writing him off already. I too have done so to some degree at the past, but literally every time Stan just raises his game and delivers. So I wouldn't draw conclusions too quickly. Hoping for a good match either way, and the winner will thoroughly deserve the #2 ranking as well.
 
D

Deleted member 77403

Guest
It will be interesting to see if Nadal comes out tight again in the final. He was unexpectedly tight in the semis, the occasion got to him a bit...now it is possible, it may get to him a little again. He knows he is the heavy favorite for the title, and everyone is expecting him to win. However with the way Wawrinka started the semi, with a barrage of winners, if he does that against Nadal, things could get interesting for a bit.

Remember, Nadal was probably an even bigger fav to win AO 2014, everyone, including myself had already given him the title, and he got so tight, he ended up hurting his back, and Stan with a nothing to lose attitude bludgeoned him to death. While the safe bet and money is on Nadal...this is sports, and we have seen strange things happen when we least expect them.
 

gn

G.O.A.T.
This is the only factor that makes me believe even for a second that Stan has a chance. Nadal has not really been tested yet, so we may overrate how well he's actually been playing. But then again, maybe he's just played too well to even be tested(Thiem should in theory be a big challenge)? Hard to tell, but if things do get really tight Stan certainly isn't going to fold easily. He's a total beast mentally in these big matches.

May be. But he was just being in solid form and did not face anyone in great form this season on Clay. Thiem could not hit his BH rally balls consistently and he made many stupid errors generally. He is 2nd best but hardly a challenge even though he defeated Rafa at Rome. I think Stan can bring some resistance and power that Rafa has not experienced this season on Clay. It would be interesting to see how Nadal reacts to it. The bounce of the surface and Stan's tactics will play a role.
 

Jaitock1991

Hall of Fame
May be. But he was just being in solid form and did not face anyone in great form this season on Clay. Thiem could not hit his BH rally balls consistently and he made so stupid errors. He is 2nd best but hardly a challenge even though he defeated Rafa at Rome. I think Stan can bring some resistance and power that Rafa has not experienced this season on Clay. It would be interesting to see how Nadal reacts to it. The bounce of the surface and Stan's tactics will play a role.

Totally agree :)
 
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RF-18

Talk Tennis Guru
I Don't expect this to be as competitive as people think. Wawrinka suits Nadal. Even in Nadals worst year in 2015 Nadal was beating him pretty easily.

Slamrinka is another case and he is 3-0 in finals but I see waw taking one set max. Nadal will prove to be just too strong.
 

imonfire

Rookie
Hope Stan saved his best for the final. I'm happy with whoever wins, but an epic match will be very welcome.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 

icedevil0289

G.O.A.T.
He's not being completely overlooked. But Nadal at Roland Garros? A Nadal who still hasn't dropped a set and has lost just 29 games?

mte, hc it is not, and djokovic on the other side it is not and tbh we're looking at like a small amount finals. going 3-0 is certainly impressive, one being against nadal(one i maintain he won fair and square btw) but i think people are incorrectly referencing that to support why they think stan will win.
 

Aussie Darcy

Bionic Poster
Battle of the booty ;) Stan v Nadal. Should be a good match. @Djokovic2011

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icedevil0289

G.O.A.T.
head says nadal in 3, maybe 4...heart...says idc lets move on to grass. jk but stan definitely has the the best chance out of all the opponents rafa has faced, which really says it all since his chances are still slim.
 

Fedinkum

Legend
I hope Stan stays aggressive just like his semi...when his forehands dialed in in the 5th, Murray almost got bagelled.
 
Stanimal is going to bulldoze him in three.

There is no way he will serve as bad as he did against Murray, and there is no way Rafa will defend as well as Murray did. Numerous key points that literally only Murray's level of defense could have won. No way Rafa is landing stabbing stretch back-to-the-ball lobs 2cm inside the opposite baseline. Only Murray can do that, and that tenacity plus Stan's wobbles enabled Murray to grind out some undeserved sets. Today's Nadal is just not getting some of those balls back in play. And I don't expect him to get as much generosity on Stan's serve, nor can he return like Murray anyway at this stage of his career.
 
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