CHeck this out, a must for every tennis addict:
http://live-tennis.eu/en/atp-race
these are up to the minutes, Rafa is almost 3,000 points ahead of Fed in live race; but that is not about getting to #1 this year.
Hard to call, but I think it's possible but it will depend on more than Rafa. Murray has to lose a fair number of points; Rafa is now 2,200 (approx) points ahead of Fed; Fed would have to win a lot to overtake Rafa; Djok has to not have a huge resurgence, and Rafa has to keep winning.
I want to see #1 beside his name again.