2017 French Open FINAL: [3] Stan Wawrinka vs. [4] Rafael Nadal

Who will win?

  • Total voters
    207
If Nadal comes out with a conservative mindset he is screwed, because the way I see it, Wawrinka's 1HBH eats up Nadal's topspin like there is no tomorrow, which would be fatal if Nadal gives Wawrinka some ground by hitting without enough depth. If he does that, Wawrinka takes the ball forward and creates a lot of angles, which would wear Nadal down in no time. The additional problem is that Wawrinka has more room to play with Nadal's high bounce than he does against somebody like Murray, which would mean that his UE list should be much more diminished, and that might spell doom for Rafa.

I do get that Nadal has looked great so far, but tomorrow is a match that stands on its own as far as I am concerned, because Wawrinka has shown some ruthless attack form. Also, I would imagine the AO 14 Final still sits in some remote dark corner in Nadal's animal psyche, even if he has beaten Wawrinka after that. A Slam final is a whole different story, and with the psychological baggage from that Final, if something even remotely resembling deja vu starts to take shape, I would be very concerned.

In sum, Wawrinka in 4 or 5.
 
skip1969 said:
Man . . . there is a part of me that is dreading sitting through this match tomorrow. Not because I am nervous about the outcome or I've bet money on the match. Not cos it is gonna have any impact on my day or my life . . . in any way, shape, or form. Not cos I give two sh*ts about La Decima or GOAT status or Slam counts or winning percentages.

No, I'm dreading it for the simple fact that I avoid Nadal matches like the plague. But as a Stan fan, I'm gonna have to suck it up and sit through the final just like I had to during the semi against Murray (whose matches I also avoid like the plague). Four and a half hours of Murray with just one day of rest until God knows how many hours of Nadal?

I just hope I'm mentally prepared. I gotta fight through. I gotta be strong. For Stan. For tennis.
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skip1969 said:
Man . . . there is a part of me that is dreading sitting through this match tomorrow. Not because I am nervous about the outcome or I've bet money on the match. Not cos it is gonna have any impact on my day or my life . . . in any way, shape, or form. Not cos I give two sh*ts about La Decima or GOAT status or Slam counts or winning percentages.

No, I'm dreading it for the simple fact that I avoid Nadal matches like the plague. But as a Stan fan, I'm gonna have to suck it up and sit through the final just like I had to during the semi against Murray (whose matches I also avoid like the plague). Four and a half hours of Murray with just one day of rest until God knows how many hours of Nadal?

I just hope I'm mentally prepared. I gotta fight through. I gotta be strong. For Stan. For tennis.
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Haha love this post. Agree with pretty much all of it.
 
Rusty Shackleford said:
If Nadal comes out with a conservative mindset he is screwed, because the way I see it, Wawrinka's 1HBH eats up Nadal's topspin like there is no tomorrow, which would be fatal if Nadal gives Wawrinka some ground by hitting without enough depth. If he does that, Wawrinka takes the ball forward and creates a lot of angles, which would wear Nadal down in no time. The additional problem is that Wawrinka has more room to play with Nadal's high bounce than he does against somebody like Murray, which would mean that his UE list should be much more diminished, and that might spell doom for Rafa.

I do get that Nadal has looked great so far, but tomorrow is a match that stands on its own as far as I am concerned, because Wawrinka has shown some ruthless attack form. Also, I would imagine the AO 14 Final still sits in some remote dark corner in Nadal's animal psyche, even if he has beaten Wawrinka after that. A Slam final is a whole different story, and with the psychological baggage from that Final, if something even remotely resembling deja vu starts to take shape, I would be very concerned.

In sum, Wawrinka in 4 or 5.
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Do you really believe this???
I wish I had faith like you. I expect Nadal to unleash his full arsenal tomorrow. It won't be pretty.
 
Rusty Shackleford said:
If Nadal comes out with a conservative mindset he is screwed, because the way I see it, Wawrinka's 1HBH eats up Nadal's topspin like there is no tomorrow, which would be fatal if Nadal gives Wawrinka some ground by hitting without enough depth. If he does that, Wawrinka takes the ball forward and creates a lot of angles, which would wear Nadal down in no time. The additional problem is that Wawrinka has more room to play with Nadal's high bounce than he does against somebody like Murray, which would mean that his UE list should be much more diminished, and that might spell doom for Rafa.

I do get that Nadal has looked great so far, but tomorrow is a match that stands on its own as far as I am concerned, because Wawrinka has shown some ruthless attack form. Also, I would imagine the AO 14 Final still sits in some remote dark corner in Nadal's animal psyche, even if he has beaten Wawrinka after that. A Slam final is a whole different story, and with the psychological baggage from that Final, if something even remotely resembling deja vu starts to take shape, I would be very concerned.

In sum, Wawrinka in 4 or 5.
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I don't know Rusty, Rafa's been superbly solid this past fortnight, he looks really confident with his game regardless of the opponents he's faced. And he did dismantle Thiem after all (who has been the 2nd best clay-courter this season), and he's been hitting his forehand well and with depth. Chatrier is incredibly deep and if Wawrinka gives himself too much time and room to handle the high bouncing ball he'll find himself getting pushed back further behind the baseline and will cede control of the point to Nadal, like he did quite often during their match here in 2013. I'm also not sure how relevant the 2014 AO really is, I guess we'll find out for sure tomorrow - it was on a hard court and had this been the AO I'd have actually given Stan the edge. But there is a reason that Rafa's such a big favourite for this one, and all I hope for is a good, competitive match where both stay injury free.
You, vanioMan, MN and others have been incredible with the support since 2014 and if Rafa does win this match, this victory will be as much for you guys (and all of us really) as it would be for him - very few even dared to believe that we would be witnessing this in 2017.
 
Krish872007 said:
I don't know Rusty, Rafa's been superbly solid this past fortnight, he looks really confident with his game regardless of the opponents he's faced. And he did dismantle Thiem after all (who has been the 2nd best clay-courter this season), and he's been hitting his forehand well and with depth. Chatrier is incredibly deep and if Wawrinka gives himself too much time and room to handle the high bouncing ball he'll find himself getting pushed back further behind the baseline and will cede control of the point to Nadal, like he did quite often during their match here in 2013. I'm also not sure how relevant the 2014 AO really is, I guess we'll find out for sure tomorrow - it was on a hard court and had this been the AO I'd have actually given Stan the edge. But there is a reason that Rafa's such a big favourite for this one, and all I hope for is a good, competitive match where both stay injury free.
You, vanioMan, MN and others have been incredible with the support since 2014 and if Rafa does win this match, this victory will be as much for you guys (and all of us really) as it would be for him - very few even dared to believe that we would be witnessing this in 2017.
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Nobody believed that Wawrinka would do what he did back in 2014 at the AO. Had he even won a single set against Nadal before that? Maybe one, or none (I'm not sure). Something changed then, and I think it doesn't have entirely to do with Nadal being injured (which he was).

Yes, I am reasonably concerned about tomorrow's match. Thiem might have had the superior statistics for the clay season, but it's Wawrinka who has shown to be able to defeat Nadal in a slam final before, and after his performance yesterday against Murray, it can reasonably be predicted that he will come out with a very aggressive mentality. That's exactly the only way anyone can beat a Nadal in this form at the French Open, and if things work for Wawrinka and he can keep a healthy Winner/UE ratio, the match will be very difficult for Nadal.

But I hope Nadal wins this, obviously! You are right, it has been a long dark era for Nadal fans since late 2014. He had gone through tough times before, but never like this. It's hard to believe how he has risen from his own ashes once more! :D
 
Wawrinka will win. He had a tough match against Murray, but crucially he ended up playing at a far higher level than he started. If he had played like that the whole match Murray wouldn't have won 10 games. And we already know it takes coming through a tough challenge for the Stanimal to be unleashed. Nadal is in great form, but no one can match Stanimal in a final. I don't think the surface even factors into it.
 
Hitman said:
Stan is the only player who has any legitimate chance against Nadal, so at least the right player has made it to the final. Rafa is the massive fav, yes fully agree, but he is not 100% lock with his opponent being Stanimal, it would be foolish to think that. Anyone else, and Nadal would have sleepwalked to the title, Wawrinka is the only one that Nadal will truly have to play and defeat to take the title.
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This
 
Going with Stan in 4 (his usual winning margin in Slam finals). He's been playing better and better each round and just came through a tough semi-final against the guy who beat him at the same stage last year. His confidence will be sky high. Rafa has had a bit of a cakey draw with no serious opposition not even from Thiem. He is not as battle-hardened as Stan and it may show tomorrow.
 
i know polls are not indicative of everything, heck if fed were included in the original poll, he'd have quite a few votes as well, but still surprised that more people favor stan if it gets to 5 sets over rafa at this tournament
 
i don't know why but I really hope wawrinka doesn't lay an egg like thiem did!!! Wawrinka's a veteran so I will be disappointed if he doesn't play up to par
 
icedevil0289 said:
i hope the same people who are so sure stan is going to win, weren't the same ones saying the same thing about thiem b/c...
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Are you surprise with thiem? I was disappointed but was it shocking? Wawrinka has been through the battles before. He's a veteran. Wawrinka could lose tomorrow but I don't expect a 6-0 set for nadal
 
:)

Patrick McEnroe‏Verified account @PatrickMcEnroe
Simple. Who wins?
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or
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?
 
Even if Stan didn't play a gruelling 5 set semi I'd still have picked Nadal. As it is I'd be surprised if Stan has the energy and legs to hit at maximum intensity long enough to win 3 sets against Nadal.
 
ACE of Hearts said:
Are you surprise with thiem? I was disappointed but was it shocking? Wawrinka has been through the battles before. He's a veteran. Wawrinka could lose tomorrow but I don't expect a 6-0 set for nadal
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oh no, probably not, but some were so sure thiem had this. i definitely expected a closer scoreline, I will say.
 
marc45 said:
watching Murray-Stan I wasn't really sure who Nadal would want to play more
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Murray without a doubt. Murray can't bring the level Stanimal can bring. Zoning and peak Stanimal even beats Nadal on Chatrier. But Stanimal has't been seen in a LONG time.

Andy Murray playing at he highest clay level the can attain couldn't beat Nadal at the FO this year. He would have had a 5% chance (if Nadal came up injured). Stan at least has a 15.5% chance.
 
BeatlesFan said:
Murray without a doubt. Murray can't bring the level Stanimal can bring. Zoning and peak Stanimal even beats Nadal on Chatrier. But Stanimal has't been seen in a LONG time.

Andy Murray playing at he highest clay level the can attain couldn't beat Nadal at the FO this year. He would have had a 5% chance (if Nadal came up injured). Stan at least has a 15.5% chance.
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f226b3ef47c6d6500401a0fd4d2414fe238f9d1e_hq.gif
 
Jaitock1991 said:
This is the only factor that makes me believe even for a second that Stan has a chance. Nadal has not really been tested yet, so we may overrate how well he's actually been playing. But then again, maybe he's just played too well to even be tested(Thiem should in theory be a big challenge)? Hard to tell, but if things do get really tight Stan certainly isn't going to fold easily. He's a total beast mentally in these big matches.
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Pretty much this..
 
marc45 said:
watching Murray-Stan I wasn't really sure who Nadal would want to play more
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I'm sure he would rather have played Murray. Murray does not have the firepower that Stan has. Stan needs to come out agressive, but keep the balls in, unlike Thiem. This has been a very boring FO on the men's side, but hoping Stan at least makes the finals memorable.
 
Hitman said:
Stan is the only player who has any legitimate chance against Nadal, so at least the right player has made it to the final. Rafa is the massive fav, yes fully agree, but he is not 100% lock with his opponent being Stanimal, it would be foolish to think that. Anyone else, and Nadal would have sleepwalked to the title, Wawrinka is the only one that Nadal will truly have to play and defeat to take the title.
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That's what people were saying about Thiem already ;)
 
C'mon Stan! I am pumped for this match though Nadal will most likely win. Whoever wins the match deserves it but I hope both players put on a great show and it is competitive throughout. I am sick of people folding mentally so I hope Stanimal brings it tomorrow. This is the best final we could have hoped for and we got it. Stan to win in 5 sets.
 
FedTheMan said:
C'mon Stan! I am pumped for this match though Nadal will most likely win. Whoever wins the match deserves it but I hope both players put on a great show and it is competitive throughout. I am sick of people folding mentally so I hope Stanimal brings it tomorrow. This is the best final we could have hoped for and we got it. Stan to win in 5 sets.
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Im hoping for an epic battle with Rafa winning. As much as I want La Decima, I don't want it to be boring or easy.

tenor.gif
 
Rusty Shackleford said:
Nobody believed that Wawrinka would do what he did back in 2014 at the AO. Had he even won a single set against Nadal before that? Maybe one, or none (I'm not sure). Something changed then, and I think it doesn't have entirely to do with Nadal being injured (which he was).

Yes, I am reasonably concerned about tomorrow's match. Thiem might have had the superior statistics for the clay season, but it's Wawrinka who has shown to be able to defeat Nadal in a slam final before, and after his performance yesterday against Murray, it can reasonably be predicted that he will come out with a very aggressive mentality. That's exactly the only way anyone can beat a Nadal in this form at the French Open, and if things work for Wawrinka and he can keep a healthy Winner/UE ratio, the match will be very difficult for Nadal.

But I hope Nadal wins this, obviously! You are right, it has been a long dark era for Nadal fans since late 2014. He had gone through tough times before, but never like this. It's hard to believe how he has risen from his own ashes once more! :D
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You have stated my feeling exactly
 
It's pretty simple. Wawrinka beat Novak in their 1st slam final meeting in 4 sets. In their 2nd slam final meeting? Beat him in 4 sets.

Wawrinka beat Nadal in their 1st slam meeting in 4 sets. And the same will happen tomorrow. He wins slam finals in 4 sets. Period.
 
I will say this, although Nadal is playing relatively well he has lost a good share of important Slam finals. At this point I don't know where his mind is at the big stage. I feel he will feel extra pressure knowing that he failed already several times and one to Wawrinka. He knows that he has to keep his emotions in check and play with confidence.

I will not say he will win or Wawa, I simply don't know who will win. I have been disappointed way too many time to want to get emotionally invested. I am rooting for Nadal but I am not as confident as I once was. Good luck to him and hope the stars align for him tomorrow
 
veroniquem said:
That's what people were saying about Thiem already ;)
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certainly similar players in some ways...actually think Thiem is quicker and can hit harder, but we know that wasn't enough, and Stan's proven

the reason I mention Murray above as a possibly equal barrier is because I believe he has the same amount of wins against Nadal on clay, one, as Stan?...and has certainly beaten Nadal a lot more, including multiple times at majors, unlike Stan...he also has a better return, equal movement, and that two-hander to neutralize the cross-court Nadal fh...but Stan is definitely in better form, and shape, now, especially with what he did in Geneva beforehand, and that's probably more important...and Andy is better on a quicker court
 
WhiskeyEE said:
It's pretty simple. Wawrinka beat Novak in their 1st slam final meeting in 4 sets. In their 2nd slam final meeting? Beat him in 4 sets.

Wawrinka beat Nadal in their 1st slam meeting in 4 sets. And the same will happen tomorrow. He wins slam finals in 4 sets. Period.
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you were the guy who said "there's nothing Nadal can do" about Thiem, eh?...maybe thinking not clear?
 
marc45 said:
you were the guy who said "there's nothing Nadal can do" about Thiem, eh?...maybe thinking not clear?
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I said if Thiem plays his best. I didn't have enough data points to conclude that Thiem just sucks in the final rounds of big tournaments. Now I do.
 
Mainad said:
Going with Stan in 4 (his usual winning margin in Slam finals). He's been playing better and better each round and just came through a tough semi-final against the guy who beat him at the same stage last year. His confidence will be sky high. Rafa has had a bit of a cakey draw with no serious opposition not even from Thiem. He is not as battle-hardened as Stan and it may show tomorrow.
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this is Stan's third full week of play in a row, something to consider...obviously Rafa has played a ton this year, and this spring during the clay season, but he did have time off coming in, and a lot of time off during, for once :)

sometimes one extra match just isn't there for you mentally and physically, though Stan is a horse...he's on the longest clay court winning streak of his career these last three weeks..he only needs to beat Nadal on Chatrier to cap it off :)
 
WhiskeyEE said:
I said if Thiem plays his best. I didn't have enough data points to conclude that Thiem just sucks in the final rounds of big tournaments. Now I do.
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Nadal has a weird way of making guys, talented guys, not play their best on a clay court, esp. at RG..unless you believe it's all those cake draws he's gotten since '05 :)
 
marc45 said:
Nadal has a weird way of making guys, talented guys, not play their best on a clay court, esp. at RG..unless you believe it's all those cake draws he's gotten since '05 :)
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Novak had a "weird way" of making Thiem play bad at last year's RG. Then again in Rome. He then got destroyed in a quarterfinal when there was less pressure.
 
Couple of years back every one was talking, if there is any person who can beat Nadal in the Final is Djokovic is the only man can do. Today every one talking Stan is the only man could beat Nadal.. Truth is it's difficult for any one to beat 2017 version of Nadal
 
Last edited:
we're talking Oz, but for godsake we're comparing hard to dirt...13 sets played on clay vs. them, 11-2 Rafa
 
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