2017 Madrid Open Final - [4] Nadal vs [8] Thiem

Who will lift the Ion Tiriac trophy?


  • Total voters
    68
  • Poll closed .

Meles

Bionic Poster
Rafa was also coping with his parents' divorce in 2009. His dad broke the news to him on the plane going home after he'd won the AO. Things fell apart from then on.
That is why he withdrew from Wimbledon? I saw a lot of woefully short ball feeding going on at RG. Whatever it is/was, it was not his best with strong reasons.
 
He did so yesterday already. ;)

Fortunately Goffin is NOT in Rafa's part of the draw in Rome...


Goffin, I believe is the biggest challenge for Rafa on clay. Bigger than Thiem, definitely. Probably the same level with Djoker and Federer. The last 2 being a threat as far as the mental aspect for Nadal. Meaning, he's more nervous playing the 2 Greats because of who they are, not necessarily their present games on clay, which is where Goffin comes to the picture
 

Tom Jones

New User
Awesome match! Just what you would expect from the 2 hottest clay court players. Rafa's will is unmatched and when he couples it with his A game look out!
Theim is going to be the real deal as he has so much going for him. I was at Indian Wells for 2 days and nights during the round of 16/quarters and saw most of the great ones play and the best match ended up being Theim/Stan.
That Thursday night match was unbelievable as Theim was there to dethrone another one of the big 4 and Stan had to pull many rabbits out of his hat all night long and ultimately persevered.
 
Thiem was throwing the kitchen sink at Rafa today indeed. His average groundstroke speed was 126kmh compared to 118 against Cuevas yesterday and Rafa's 114 today. That is HUGE!

Rafa looked tired at times and both his serve and groundstroke speeds suffered. Not to mention his 4DFs. That's always a sign that either he's tired/not feeling well, like in the Fognini match where he said he was feeling "strange", regarding his balance - not surprising because of his ear infection, or he's just too nervy. Or both.

I doubt he will get fried if he reaches deep or wins Rome next week. Still think he should skip Rome now that he has won MC, Barcelona and Madrid. He's playing great but it's not 2010 anymore. Even that year he needed to skip Barcelona. But unless he is injured, I know he won't.
Definitely. Rafa should skip Rome
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Goffin, I believe is the biggest challenge for Rafa on clay. Bigger than Thiem, definitely. Probably the same level with Djoker and Federer. The last 2 being a threat as far as the mental aspect for Nadal. Meaning, he's more nervous playing the 2 Greats because of who they are, not necessarily their present games on clay, which is where Goffin comes to the picture
Djokovic and Goffin played Nadal in Madrid and lost. Djokovic is not even remotely in the conversation for anyone who watched the match with open eyes. Goffin 7-6, 6-2 and the end of set scenarios not even close. Federer doubtful for RG given he hasn't bothered to touch clay yet.:rolleyes: Thiem would ruin him like he did last year, maybe even worse.o_O
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Awesome match! Just what you would expect from the 2 hottest clay court players. Rafa's will is unmatched and when he couples it with his A game look out!
Theim is going to be the real deal as he has so much going for him. I was at Indian Wells for 2 days and nights during the round of 16/quarters and saw most of the great ones play and the best match ended up being Theim/Stan.
That Thursday night match was unbelievable as Theim was there to dethrone another one of the big 4 and Stan had to pull many rabbits out of his hat all night long and ultimately persevered.
laugh_above.gif


I'm not ever sure Thiem was even at his best. His forehand has generally been hunting quite well in Madrid.
 
Djokovic and Goffin played Nadal in Madrid and lost. Djokovic is not even remotely in the conversation for anyone who watched the match with open eyes. Goffin 7-6, 6-2 and the end of set scenarios not even close. Federer doubtful for RG given he hasn't bothered to touch clay yet.:rolleyes: Thiem would ruin him like he did last year, maybe even worse.o_O
What I'm saying Meles is, when Rafa plays Djoker or Fed, he is more nervous than usual, and that can cause disruptions to his game
, causing more errors. He knows what they can do. As far as Goffin is concerned, I feel like he can do more damage on Rafa than Thiem. And I was basing it on how I watched their respective matches against Rafa the past 2 times they played him. Just an ocular assessment, imv
 
Thiem still needs to fix his court positioning... still waaaaaaay too far behind baseline. That plays to Nadal's strengths. When DT lurks closer to the baseline he seems far more dangerous to Nadal. I suspect he's saving that for the French, we will see. I like the kid a lot, he's just still pulling it all together. That said the French is where things tend to gell for players.
 

TheMusicLover

G.O.A.T.
Goffin, I believe is the biggest challenge for Rafa on clay. Bigger than Thiem, definitely. Probably the same level with Djoker and Federer. The last 2 being a threat as far as the mental aspect for Nadal. Meaning, he's more nervous playing the 2 Greats because of who they are, not necessarily their present games on clay, which is where Goffin comes to the picture
I think there should be no dispute on the two 'youngsters/upcoming players' who might - MIGHT! - be able to become a challenge on clay to Rafa, and their names are most definitely Thiem and Goffin. They've been the only two players being able to push Nadal to even having to play a TB, when Rafa was at least very close to his best level. :)

That said, I disagree with you on Goffin being the biggest challenge - he's already 26, 27 years old, and imho, reaching his peak level by now.
Added up to his very slight frame, I cannot see him do more damage, unless he might hit the 2009-Davydenko-level of playing, which I'm not too sure about if he'll ever be able to.
Thiem, however, is just entering his peak, and may well be able to add on to his level of play during the coming seasons - all of this, of course, only being a matter should Rafa's peak of nowadays come to an end.

Both have impressed me with their tenacity, NOT giving up after having lost the 1st set in a gruelsome high-class TB.
The Kygios's, Zverev's, Raonic's, etc. might do well to learn a lesson from Goffin and Thiem in this regard.

;)
 
I think there should be no dispute on the two 'youngsters/upcoming players' who might - MIGHT! - be able to become a challenge on clay to Rafa, and their names are most definitely Thiem and Goffin. They've been the only two players being able to push Nadal to even having to play a TB, when Rafa was at least very close to his best level. :)

That said, I disagree with you on Goffin being the biggest challenge - he's already 26, 27 years old, and imho, reaching his peak level by now.
Added up to his very slight frame, I cannot see him do more damage, unless he might hit the 2009-Davydenko-level of playing, which I'm not too sure about if he'll ever be able to.
Thiem, however, is just entering his peak, and may well be able to add on to his level of play during the coming seasons - all of this, of course, only being a matter should Rafa's peak of nowadays come to an end.

Both have impressed me with their tenacity, NOT giving up after having lost the 1st set in a gruelsome high-class TB.
The Kygios's, Zverev's, Raonic's, etc. might do well to learn a lesson from Goffin and Thiem in this regard.

;)
I do agree with you rethat Thiem has the better upside to challenge Rafa. But my assessment regarding Goffin is only for this year's FO
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
What I'm saying Meles is, when Rafa plays Djoker or Fed, he is more nervous than usual, and that can cause disruptions to his game
, causing more errors. He knows what they can do. As far as Goffin is concerned, I feel like he can do more damage on Rafa than Thiem. And I was basing it on how I watched their respective matches against Rafa the past 2 times they played him. Just an ocular assessment, imv
Well you better get your ocular adjusted.:D Thiem had two set points in TB, plus three break back points when Nadal serving for the match to get back on serve. One of those points gets snagged in TB and this is a very different match. The stats are not all that close with Goffin or Djoko. Djokovic is done on clay. Rafa is laughing at him after their match yesterday. The guy got rolled and found a little bit of his old dangerous form in the 2nd, but Nadal had level to spare to deal with it. Djokovic is not match tough. The first set with Nadal was an absolute debacle as was his play the whole week of Madrid. We can hope for more, but I don't see how he gets his game up enough to be a real threat for RG. From Monte Carlo to Rome Djokovic looks worse to my eyes not better. Ditto Murray. The trendline does not look up.o_O

Frankly Thiem might have won this event if Goffin had done an even better match with Nadal and Djoko's game was not a travesty. I'd much rather have seen Nishikori in the semi who was looking quite sharp, surprisingly sharp at Madrid. The Nishikori meal ticket is in trouble after botched clay vulture run in South America. He may be out of the top ten very soon if he doesn't get it together quick. That's a lot of motivation for him, so hopefully his wrist gets sound enough for the Ninja to not run an hide.:rolleyes:
 

Nick Lynch

Rookie
Rafa should definitely play Rome. Best of 3 set matches won't take a toll on him and Rafa plays better when confident. Match wins will get him that confidence.
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
Not after he was injured.:rolleyes: Way off his game and had to pull out of RG. Federer was absolutely not the best clay court player in 2009 (exhibit a his declined return game), but very deserving of the title as he and Djoko goat clay courters.
Fed won a slam and a masters and reached another masters semi. That's better than 2 masters, a final and a 4th round at RG.

Fed the best on clay in 2009.
 

Krish872007

Talk Tennis Guru
I do agree with you rethat Thiem has the better upside to challenge Rafa. But my assessment regarding Goffin is only for this year's FO

I would agree with that, and I think it's actually down to one very simple factor: positioning.
In an earlier comment on the thread, I mentioned the dimensions of Court Philippe Chatrier and I'll expand on it now. This is a very deep court, much deeper than most of the other courts on tour and it lulls a lot of players into a false sense of security, thinking that they can stand comfortably behind the baseline and run more balls down by sliding around at the back of the court. In effect, they feel they have more time and can use defensive plays to work their way into points.
Against Nadal on Chatrier, this is not going to be a winning strategy (or a particularly competitive one) unless you have completely unrivalled speed and endurance. We saw Thiem standing well behind the baseline on many points earlier today, and he hit most of his backhands well after the bounce on the downward trajectory. He tends to do this to a greater extent on critical points, which (at RG in particular) would automatically hand over control of the point to Rafa. Goffin, on the other hand, hugs the baseline a lot more and uses his two-hander to consistently redirect the ball off the front foot, meaning that it can actually get returned to Nadal with interest - sustaining this is a little easier and can actually rush Rafa more effectively, so even though Thiem probably hits a heavier ball in isolation, it's somewhat negated by his positioning and he exposes himself to drop shots and shorter balls.

I think Thiem is looking good overall against the field though. Would back him to come through the draw and would probably favour him slightly in a H2H situation against Goffin.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
I do agree with you rethat Thiem has the better upside to challenge Rafa. But my assessment regarding Goffin is only for this year's FO
As a Thiem fan I have a lot of respect for Goffin, but it will very much depend on the draw. I'd frankly favor Pouille over Goffin should they meet. Goffin is not invincible to all players on clay. Khachanov has given him all sorts of trouble including a loss. Thiem has only been troubled by the very best players and his progress against Rafa after two short weeks has been very promising.;)
 

marc45

G.O.A.T.
Well you better get your ocular adjusted.:D Thiem had two set points in TB, plus three break back points when Nadal serving for the match to get back on serve. One of those points gets snagged in TB and this is a very different match. The stats are not all that close with Goffin or Djoko. Djokovic is done on clay. Rafa is laughing at him after their match yesterday. The guy got rolled and found a little bit of his old dangerous form in the 2nd, but Nadal had level to spare to deal with it. Djokovic is not match tough. The first set with Nadal was an absolute debacle as was his play the whole week of Madrid. We can hope for more, but I don't see how he gets his game up enough to be a real threat for RG. From Monte Carlo to Rome Djokovic looks worse to my eyes not better. Ditto Murray. The trendline does not look up.o_O

Frankly Thiem might have won this event if Goffin had done an even better match with Nadal and Djoko's game was not a travesty. I'd much rather have seen Nishikori in the semi who was looking quite sharp, surprisingly sharp at Madrid. The Nishikori meal ticket is in trouble after botched clay vulture run in South America. He may be out of the top ten very soon if he doesn't get it together quick. That's a lot of motivation for him, so hopefully his wrist gets sound enough for the Ninja to not run an hide.:rolleyes:

you're conveniently forgetting that Thiem was fortunate to get by Dimitrov...how many match points did Dimi have?...and Goffin beat him too...Thiem isn't an automatic to go deep
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
He withdrew because he was injured. Simple as that.
Seems like a lesser mirror of 2016 to me. He soldiered through to RG to try to win, but not in good health whatsoever. Its funny the Federistas will trot out this defense for his losses on clay and grass last year, but this reality in 2009 with Nadal's game going downhill through the season escapes them.:rolleyes: Stopped playing just like Fed last year and both probably should have stopped much earlier.;) Both blew Wimbledons fiddling around in the clay when they shouldn't have.:eek:
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
you're conveniently forgetting that Thiem was fortunate to get by Dimitrov...how many match points did Dimi have?...and Goffin beat him too...Thiem isn't an automatic to go deep
Thiem came back from 6-4, 2-4, and 1-4 and saved five match points during the third set breaker. You can call Thiem doing this over and over against players in excellent form "luck", but its par for the course for Thiem. He's done this over and over again in big matches.

You are right, but Dimitrov is one of the top players on tour as well as Goffin. They aren't 3, 4, and 6 in the ATP race this year for nothing.;) All of these points achieved taking on the top players because of their currently lower ranking.o_O
 

Wooly

Rookie
You can look at it two ways. You can be content with Thiem clearly progressing towards the top of the game. That is, if you are a Thiem fan. On the other hand, the NextGen still hasn't been able to take down the reigning Big 4. We're waiting on that for so long and it just won't happen. People who are being critical of Thiem are not hating on him. They're just frustrated because the next generation keeps on disappointing. It's not about this match from Thiem, it's about how they perform altogether. If it continues like this, the Big 4 will be replaced not because they've encountered younger, better players, but simply because they're forced to retire due to old age/injury and then the next generation will fill the top of the ATP by default. That would be such a sad state of event in tennis. That the younger generation is unable to overtake the older generation at all.

you have not to judge the youngsters too hard ... i think its actually frustrating to have clearly the two best Players on top of you ... one Roger Federer who is simply the best Player overall, and can just ignore his age by playing his best Tennis, and Nadal, the ultimate Fighter and a mental Giant, who just don´t gets nervous on breakpoints or everything .. i think Thiem today did what he can do mentally, but Nadal was just to strong in his Head .. must be like running against a Wall ... ;-)
 

Gary Duane

Talk Tennis Guru
I would agree with that, and I think it's actually down to one very simple factor: positioning.
In an earlier comment on the thread, I mentioned the dimensions of Court Philippe Chatrier and I'll expand on it now. This is a very deep court, much deeper than most of the other courts on tour and it lulls a lot of players into a false sense of security, thinking that they can stand comfortably behind the baseline and run more balls down by sliding around at the back of the court. In effect, they feel they have more time and can use defensive plays to work their way into points.
Against Nadal on Chatrier, this is not going to be a winning strategy (or a particularly competitive one) unless you have completely unrivalled speed and endurance. We saw Thiem standing well behind the baseline on many points earlier today, and he hit most of his backhands well after the bounce on the downward trajectory. He tends to do this to a greater extent on critical points, which (at RG in particular) would automatically hand over control of the point to Rafa. Goffin, on the other hand, hugs the baseline a lot more and uses his two-hander to consistently redirect the ball off the front foot, meaning that it can actually get returned to Nadal with interest - sustaining this is a little easier and can actually rush Rafa more effectively, so even though Thiem probably hits a heavier ball in isolation, it's somewhat negated by his positioning and he exposes himself to drop shots and shorter balls.

I think Thiem is looking good overall against the field though. Would back him to come through the draw and would probably favour him slightly in a H2H situation against Goffin.
Good analysis.

But I think net play lost at least a set if not the match today for Thiem. He's got the speed to get in most of the time, but he doesn't always know what to do when he gets there. That was one of two weaknesses I saw today. The other was exactly what you said, the need to stand back and wind up on ground strokes, especially noticeable on the backhand.

Nadal kept waiting to hit very sharp angles to the corners and followed up with nasty drop shots.

But to be fair I think the only way to win against Nadal this year on clay is to bring garlic plus a crucifix and a wooden stake. And even those things might not work. ;)
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
Congratulations to Nadal. He literally has a chance to accomplish at 31 what he couldn't do at 24: win all 5 of the clay events he enters.

The 90's kids, however, are still yet to win a set in a big final.
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
Rafa was also coping with his parents' divorce in 2009. His dad broke the news to him on the plane going home after he'd won the AO. Things fell apart from then on.
That doesn't hold up. Rafa was as dominant as ever winning everything in sight until Madrid, except Miami.
 

LaDecima

New User
Thiem is on another level to goffin. Over 5 sets thiem will be a nightmare for all but nadal.

As for Djokovic he is miles away from where he needs to be. His aura has gone now and Rome is now a must win tournament for him if he has any designs to defend his FO Crown.

Nadal is on another level at the moment to any other player. He has dominated on hard and clay. Yes Federer neat him but nadal still made three finals on hard court. Federer has not even turned up on clay so nadal the one with the aura on all surfaces at the moment .
 

metsman

Talk Tennis Guru
Seems like a lesser mirror of 2016 to me. He soldiered through to RG to try to win, but not in good health whatsoever. Its funny the Federistas will trot out this defense for his losses on clay and grass last year, but this reality in 2009 with Nadal's game going downhill through the season escapes them.:rolleyes: Stopped playing just like Fed last year and both probably should have stopped much earlier.;) Both blew Wimbledons fiddling around in the clay when they shouldn't have.:eek:
Everyone acknowledges Nadal's health was not at his best the 2nd half of 2009. Just that we knew this at the time and we're not making grand discoveries about 2009 in 2017.

Also, remind me how old Federer was last year and how old Nadal was in 2009?
 

metsman

Talk Tennis Guru
Thiem came back from 6-4, 2-4, and 1-4 and saved five match points during the third set breaker. You can call Thiem doing this over and over against players in excellent form "luck", but its par for the course for Thiem. He's done this over and over again in big matches.

You are right, but Dimitrov is one of the top players on tour as well as Goffin. They aren't 3, 4, and 6 in the ATP race this year for nothing.;) All of these points achieved taking on the top players because of their currently lower ranking.o_O
which big matches has Thiem done that in?
 

Wilhelm

Hall of Fame
I enjoyed that Theim didn't give up right to the end; great fortitude. You saw the little fist pump as Nadal served for the match and missed his first drop shot - never gave up hope.

Next level up is belief.

The key to unlocking Nadal thus far has only been managed by Djokovic. And Soderling, for that 1 special match.

It's not at all easy figuring out the right shot selection. Must be maddening to be on the other side.

Yup, Thiem showed a great match. For my taste it was still a little too much mindless bashing, though. Fognini is closer in terms of making Nadal uncomfortable.
 

Nadalgaenger

G.O.A.T.
Djokovic needs to get his act together as he is the only guy that can take on Nadal. When he was kicking Nadal's ass Djokovic would sit on the baseline and dictate points. Thiem's not going to win sitting 10 feet behind the baseline.
Very different style of play. Thiem can't just snap his fingers and play like prime Djokovic. He plays more traditional clay tennis. Very heavy topspin balls hit from well beyond the baseline that veer into the court at the last split second. It works against most opponents on clay except the one guy in the world better at the same thing:)
 
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Meles

Bionic Poster
Everyone acknowledges Nadal's health was not at his best the 2nd half of 2009. Just that we knew this at the time and we're not making grand discoveries about 2009 in 2017.

Also, remind me how old Federer was last year and how old Nadal was in 2009?
Only if you remind me how old Muster was when he won his first RG.:D
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
which big matches has Thiem done that in?
Some of the top players in the game. Dimitrov is six in the ATP race this year. Goffin in QF of RG last year to make SF (sounds pretty clutch for a young player.) Federer in Stuttgart was some great cluctchness. The same Fed who almost made Final of Wimbledon. Close, but no cigar in Thiem's first masters 1000 versus the King of Clay.;) Betterer.:D
 

Gary Duane

Talk Tennis Guru
Yup, Thiem showed a great match. For my taste it was still a little too much mindless bashing, though. Fognini is closer in terms of making Nadal uncomfortable.
Foggy is unique. He never looks like he's putting in any effort, which I'm sure is an illusion. ;)

When things click he is incredibly dangerous returning, but it's a lot like Stan, only peak level does not show up in big matches...
 
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