2017 US Open - general discussion thread

Who's gonna win the US Open in 2017?


  • Total voters
    164

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster

Last Slam of the season, here's how things look:

1) Withdrawals
Djokovic, Wawrinka, Nishikori out which means that as of today (right after the Cincinnati final) these are the seeds:

No update on Federer, Murray, Cilic and Raonic so far but from what I've heard Fed is fine and Murray will probably play.

To be honest not a lot going on outside of the top 8 with the exception of Kyrgios (15) and Del Potro (25). Because Kyrgios is ranked 15th he will be drawn with a top 4 seed in the 4th round - could be Federer, Nadal, Murray or Zverev...this should be the only really important match before the QF. Del Potro seeded 25th so he''ll be drawn with a 5-8 seed in the 3rd round. We could have a Del Potro-Dimitrov 3rd round for example.

2) Favorites (after Cincinnat) - thanks to @falstaff78 for noticing the changes:
Depends on the bookmaker but more or less like this:
Federer - 2,5
Nadal - 3,5
Zverev - 8
Murray - 8
Dimitrov/Kyrgios/Cilic - 15
Raonic/Del Potro/Thiem - 20

A lot on the line for both Federer-Nadal because they are gunning for the YE#1 spot. Because Murray decided to play we could see a Fedal SF instead of the final.
 
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falstaff78

Hall of Fame
Nice thread. Fed FTW

Ranking implications:

  • If any of Murray, Federer or Nadal wins the USO, he is automatically number #1

  • Murray can get #1 in either of the following scenarios:
    • Murray RU ==> Nadal QF & Federer SF
    • Murray SF ==> Nadal R64 & Federer QF

  • Federer can get #1 in any of the following scenarios:
    • Federer RU ==> Nadal SF & Murray SF
    • Federer SF ==> Nadal QF & Murray SF
    • Federer QF ==> Nadal R128 & Murray QF

  • Failing all of the above, Nadal retains number 1 after the USO

https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/heres-how-lord-fedr-can-take-over-no-1-directly-from-murray-after-cincy-2017.595999/page-6#post-11521305
 
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tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
In case someone missed it in the longa$$ OP here's what I think is the most important:

Top 8 seeds should all be safe early on, not a lot going on in the lower tiers, I mean Anderson, Querrey, Isner could be dangerous but it's an outside chance. Other than that there's Kyrgios seeded 15th which means that he will be drawn in the 4th round with a top 4 seed - which means there's a 75% chance we will see Kyrgios against a member of the big 4 in the 4th round (and a 25% chance we will see Kyrgios-Zverev). Then there's also Del Potro who (no offence, I love the guy) is sort of becoming the new Nalbandian in the bookies world - always decent odds to win but you know he won't. He's seeded 25th which means he'll play the 3rd round against a 5-8 seed, maybe a repeat of Cincinnati against the Real Slam champion Dimitrov? All of Cilic, Thiem, Dimitrov, Raonic will hate to see him in their section so early because he could easily end their tournament right there. Even though Del Potro looks to be out of form a bit I hope he can put his thing together for a Slam he's won before.

All of this if all the seeds hold up of course, upsets can always happen.
 

Rafa the King

Hall of Fame
R4's for the top 4 seeds are:
PCB, Sock, Kyrgios and Berdych
I think that is were the danger lays for any of them, if they have to face Nick and to a much lesser extent, Berdych.
Besides that maybe Feli or Anderson in R3 but really not too many players who are hot or could potentially pull of the big upsets.
 

Bukmeikara

Legend
1. Great news that Zverev has a top 4 seeding
2. Its amazing that given their lack of upcoming talent, Spain still has 6 players in top 32
3. This is probably the most "open" tournament since forever. No one except Zverev seems in good form. Dimitrov won in Cincy but had an "easy" draw + seemed poor before that in D.C and Canada. There is hardly even a decent "dark horse" outside Anderson. Goffin, Raonic, Cilic and Murray probably would play unfit.
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
I am always on a real low after Cincy, hard to pay attention to this yet
5 days before the draw is announced and we can really get started. To be honest the main reason I made this thread early was because the Cincinnati final was a bit of a dud (even though I'm happy for Dimitrov).
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
1. Great news that Zverev has a top 4 seeding
2. Its amazing that given their lack of upcoming talent, Spain still has 6 players in top 32
3. This is probably the most "open" tournament since forever. No one except Zverev seems in good form. Dimitrov won in Cincy but had an "easy" draw + seemed poor before that in D.C and Canada. There is hardly even a decent "dark horse" outside Anderson. Goffin, Raonic, Cilic and Murray probably would play unfit.
I'm a bit torn with Zverev because he hasn't really done anything in best-of-5-set matches and he's produced some stinkers. Worn out by a good but not spectacular Nadal at the AO, crapped his way out of the FO against Verdasco and lost a winnable match against Raonic who hasn't really done anything this year. If he fails to do anything at the US Open I might start questioning his physical abilities, there's no reason to be so extremely good in BO3 tournaments (fantastic season outside of the Slams for a 20 year old, that's 2007 Djokovic stuff right there) and completely fail at the first hurdles in the Slams. I'm cautious about his chances but IF he somehow gets his act together the good news for Federer is that he will be on the opposite side of the draw for sure.
 
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BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
I voted for Fed to win it, but am thinking with my heart and not my head. At 36, he will need three things to happen in order to take the title:

1. Favorable draw
2. Favorable scheduling (no 2:20 am matches like he played a few years ago there)
3. No long Monfils-like 4 hour matches prior to the final. He must come into the final fresh.

All three of those happening are a tough ask.
 

Mainad

Bionic Poster
I'm a bit torn with Zverev because he hasn't really done anything in best-of-5-set matches and he's produced some stinkers. Worn out by Nadal at the AO, crapped his way out of the FO against Verdasco and lost a winnable match against Raonic who hasn't really done anything this year. If he fails to do anything at the US Open I might start questioning his physical abilities, there's no reason to be so extremely good in BO3 tournaments (fantastic season outside of the Slams for a 20 year old, that's 2007 Djokovic stuff right there) and completely fail at the first hurdles in the Slams. I'm cautious about his chances but IF he somehow gets his act together the good news for Federer is that he will be in the opposite side of the draw for sure.


Why will he necessarily be in the other half of the draw to Federer?
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
Nice thread. Fed FTW

Ranking implications:

  • If any of Murray, Federer or Nadal wins the USO, he is automatically number #1

  • Murray can get #1 in either of the following scenarios:
    • Murray RU ==> Nadal QF & Federer SF
    • Murray SF ==> Nadal R64 & Federer QF

  • Federer can get #1 in any of the following scenarios:
    • Federer RU ==> Nadal SF & Murray SF
    • Federer SF ==> Nadal QF & Murray SF
    • Federer QF ==> Nadal R128 & Murray QF

  • Failing all of the above, Nadal retains number 1 after the USO

https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/heres-how-lord-fedr-can-take-over-no-1-directly-from-murray-after-cincy-2017.595999/page-6#post-11521305
Even if by some miracle Murray outperforms both Federer and Nadal his no 1 ranking comeback won't last long because he's defending 4.500 points in the last 5 tournaments while Federer and Nadal a big fat 0. I think the 2017 US Open will be more about the race to no 1 between Federer and Nadal because only they matter at the moment.

Depending on the draw I expect Murray to lose in the 4th round, QF or SF to the first top 10 seed he faces.
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
Why will he necessarily be in the other half of the draw to Federer?
No 3 and no 4 can't be on one side of the draw.

It's either gonna be 1-3 2-4 or 1-4 2-3 in the semis. If you put 3-4 (Federer, Zverev) on one side of the draw you'd have to put 1-2 (Nadal, Murray) in the same half and they are the only seeds who are set beforehand (opposite sides of the draw).
 

Nostradamus

Bionic Poster
If Dimitrov can keep up his Cincinnati form I think it's gonna take someone like Federer or Nadal to stop him and maybe, just maybe he could upset Nadal if such match happens. Federer is the only player I'm pretty confident Dimitrov is not beating.
Are you serious ??? Zeverev is the Hottest player in ATP tour right now,,,,,,,i can't see how Grigor can even win a set from him right now ?
 

Mainad

Bionic Poster
No 3 and no 4 can't be on one side of the draw.

It's either gonna be 1-3 2-4 or 1-4 2-3 in the semis. If you put 3-4 (Federer, Zverev) on one side of the draw you'd have to put 1-2 (Nadal, Murray) in the same half.
Okay, forgot that Cilic drops below Zverev next week in the rankings.
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
Are you serious ??? Zeverev is the Hottest player in ATP tour right now,,,,,,,i can't see how Grigor can even win a set from him right now ?
He's underperformed in the Slams so far, I'm not gonna put him as the favorite as long as he does something in a BO5 tournament.

Clay:
Wins Rome, loses in the 1st round of the FO to Verdasco
Grass:
Reaches the final of Halle (only lost to GOATerer), loses a winnable match against Raonic who wasn't even in great form
Hard:
Once again he plays great - wins Washington/Canada (loses to Tiafoe due to fatigue) - US Open? Let's see but I'm sure he doesn't like the trend.
 

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
Are you serious ??? Zeverev is the Hottest player in ATP tour right now,,,,,,,i can't see how Grigor can even win a set from him right now ?
Totally serious. I was incredibly impressed at Grigor's movement today, his strategy and his execution. He played solidly throughout. Z isn't ready to play best 3/5 sets, look at his dismal record in slams. Dimi is looking as fit as he's ever been and I would absolutely favor him if he meets Z at the Open for fitness reasons if nothing else. But only IF he plays as he did today.
 

Mainad

Bionic Poster
Even if by some miracle Murray outperforms both Federer and Nadal his no 1 ranking comeback won't last long because he's defending 4.500 points in the last 5 tournaments while Federer and Nadal a big fat 0. I think the 2017 US Open will be more about the race to no 1 between Federer and Nadal because only they matter at the moment.

Depending on the draw I expect Murray to lose in the 4th round, QF or SF to the first top 10 seed he faces.
On the other hand, if he gets that far he may have played himself into sufficient form to be able to meet them on more or less normal terms.
 
C

Charlie

Guest
I really hope Fed will be 100% fit and that Zverev, Nick and Grigor bring their best. It could really rescue this tournament which won't have Djokovic, Nishikori, Wawrinka while Murray is a question mark.
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
I voted for Fed to win it, but am thinking with my heart and not my head. At 36, he will need three things to happen in order to take the title:

1. Favorable draw
2. Favorable scheduling (no 2:20 am matches like he played a few years ago there)
3. No long Monfils-like 4 hour matches prior to the final. He must come into the final fresh.

All three of those happening are a tough ask.
I'd say this:
1) Favorable draw - looking at the seeds I can't really see anyone who can bother him early on (except Kyrgios). Then of course who would Fed prefer in the SF? I say that there's a positive side to each option - if he draws Nadal - great - less pressure and he can take a lot of points away from him. If he draws Murray? Great because Murray won't probably make it and if he will his level won't be good enough to really compete with Fed.
2) Health - he needs to be 100% healthy, any sort of injury and his chances drop to 0%.
3) I agree with your 3rd point - I don't think a repeat of 2017 AO is possible - any 5-set match could really jeopardize his chances. However, I don't really see anyone who can really push him hard early:
- Del Potro is a question mark and he'll need to go through a 5-8 seed to even get to Federer (potential 4th round)
- Kyrgios for obvious reasons (potential 4th round)
- Isner could push Federer to a couple of tie-breaks and sneak one out if he's lucky but still he'd have to beat a 5-8 seed in the 4th round just to get to Federer (potential QF)
- Raonic could push Federer if his serve is hot but not only he's out of form but the 2017 Wimbledon beatdown must've really dented his confidence against Fed (potential QF)
- Dimitrov could challenge Federer for a set or 2 and maybe even push Federer to 5 sets if he catches him on a bad day (potential QF)
And that's pretty much it until the SF. There are of course players like Muller, Querrey, Lopez or Anderson who have the tools to bother Federer when they get hot but even there I would be confident in Fed getting through fairly easily.

The funny part is that there is a decent chance that Federer won't have to literally do anything until the SF.

I have to say that the Djokovic, Wawrinka and Nishikori withdrawals can really give the top guys very easy draws. Also, because of this I expect the tournament to be extremely boring until the QF stage (with Kyrgios and Del Potro the only interesting stories before that).
 
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tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
On the other hand, if he gets that far he may have played himself into sufficient form to be able to meet them on more or less normal terms.
That's also possible but a run like the 2017 FO is probably the best he could do if I'm being honest. His biggest chance to sniff the title is to be drawn with Zverev in one half and hope that Zverev is still unable to perform well in the Slams.
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
Totally serious. I was incredibly impressed at Grigor's movement today, his strategy and his execution. He played solidly throughout. Z isn't ready to play best 3/5 sets, look at his dismal record in slams. Dimi is looking as fit as he's ever been and I would absolutely favor him if he meets Z at the Open for fitness reasons if nothing else. But only IF he plays as he did today.
This could be a similar run to the 2017 AO but maybe with a better ending this time. I hope Dimitrov doesn't draw Federer or Nadal in the QF because for the first time ever I feel he has the potential to do something big. It feels that Dimitrov will be the favorite against anyone not named Federer or Nadal and a 50/50 against Murray.
 

AceSalvo

Legend
Kyrgios projected to play Nadal, Murray, Federer or Zverev in the US Open fourth round (last-16).

Kyrgios - Nadal should be real fun for the continuous story line. :p
 

icedevil0289

G.O.A.T.
I really hope Fed will be 100% fit and that Zverev, Nick and Grigor bring their best. It could really rescue this tournament which won't have Djokovic, Nishikori, Wawrinka while Murray is a question mark.
anyone know what's going on with murray?
 

chjtennis

G.O.A.T.
I think it will be one from Federer, Nadal and Zverev. Federer should be the favorite, but Nadal and Zverev have realistic chances as well. Other than those, Dimitrov, Kyrgios and Cilic seem to be the dark horses. I must admit that the field seems depleted with the injuries to Murray, Djokovic, Wawrinka and Nishikori.
 

BeatlesFan

Bionic Poster
I'd say this:
1) Favorable draw - looking at the seeds I can't really see anyone who can bother him early on (except Kyrgios).
By having a favorable draw, primarily I mean whether he draws Nadal in the semis or not. I realize Rafa has been a shadow of himself on HC's this summer, but I am still not 100% convinced he's out of Fed's head.

For instance, a brutal draw on paper for Fed would be:
4th: Del Potro/Ferrer
QF: Nick
Semis: Rafa
Final: Zverev

Now obviously I don't think anyone in the 16's or QF would beat Fed, but they can inflict damage by extending Fed's time on court (the Monfils match in 2014 is the classic example of this). At 36, he needs to waltz into the semis and finals with as little wear as possible.
 
D

Deleted member 716271

Guest
Mury playing will wreck the draw guaranteed
They should just rig the draw so Fedal are on opposite sides. Yes, I realize theres a good chance Rafa goes out to a journeyman in R3 but still.
 

smoledman

G.O.A.T.
By having a favorable draw, primarily I mean whether he draws Nadal in the semis or not. I realize Rafa has been a shadow of himself on HC's this summer, but I am still not 100% convinced he's out of Fed's head.

For instance, a brutal draw on paper for Fed would be:
4th: Del Potro/Ferrer
QF: Nick
Semis: Rafa
Final: Zverev

Now obviously I don't think anyone in the 16's or QF would beat Fed, but they can inflict damage by extending Fed's time on court (the Monfils match in 2014 is the classic example of this). At 36, he needs to waltz into the semis and finals with as little wear as possible.
2017 AO called and said otherwise.
 

Al Czervik

Hall of Fame
I'm a bit torn with Zverev because he hasn't really done anything in best-of-5-set matches and he's produced some stinkers.
Great point, and one that I think isn't talked about enough when we evaluate younger guys without the experience in them. I just can't see a guy like Kyrgios winning 7 best of five set matches. I think Sascha has the game to get there, he just needs the fitness.

When is the cutoff that a withdrawal would slide seeds up? At the time of the draw? Like, if Murray withdrew on Thursday, Fed would go to 2 instead of having a lucky loser plugged in for Murray?
 

Talker

Hall of Fame
I picked Fed to go all the way.

His game is good enough to not need any special criteria.

Good draw, bad draw, it doesn't matter.

He got extra rest by missing Cincy, proved he can go five setters and have enough left at the AO.

It's going to be hard to beat him.

And if he does win, holy crap... won't that be something.
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
Great point, and one that I think isn't talked about enough when we evaluate younger guys without the experience in them. I just can't see a guy like Kyrgios winning 7 best of five set matches. I think Sascha has the game to get there, he just needs the fitness.

When is the cutoff that a withdrawal would slide seeds up? At the time of the draw? Like, if Murray withdrew on Thursday, Fed would go to 2 instead of having a lucky loser plugged in for Murray?
Even if Murray withdrew 10 minutes before the draw ceremony it would be enough to change the seeds (I think). If he does so after the draw ceremony - it's a done deal.

I'm fairly sure he's gonna play, though.
 

falstaff78

Hall of Fame
@tennis_pro

I'd suggest doing a refresh on the odds a few hrs after Cincy - it can sometimes take punters a while to react. Although only GD and NK will be affected.

Also, quick request would you mind taking the pic with decimal odds, if at all convenient.

Thanks!!!
 

Red Rick

Bionic Poster
Federer, Dimitrov and Zverev are the favorites, in that order, but this the first time in a long time that an outsider winning could easily happen.
 

TheGhostOfAgassi

Talk Tennis Guru
This time I dont count Federer as the big favorite now as I have done in grass and HC season.
Its very open this year. I dont think Rafa is in form.

Im on this train:
I'm on the #Dimitrov4USOhypetrain
But I have more incarnations of myself living simultaneously, so I have the chance to be in more trains at the same time!!!!!

Ive been in the Zverev train and spent so much time there I have my own room now, and Im not leaving it. 2 masters this year. A slam is on the tip of his fingers and will happen anytime soon.

Kyrgios- Will support him of course. And USO has higher bounce... Which he really needs...

Speaking of higher bounce...
Thiem needs that too.... USO can be goos for him as well. Cincy worst tournament when it comes to high bounce.

Lucas... will always believe in him :D
 

Nadalgaenger

G.O.A.T.
If Grigor plays like he played today, I would favor Grigor at this point. But let's not forget Zverev wouldn't have given Dimi so many errors, DF's and pushing as Nick gave him today.
I think Dimitrov produced a higher level yesterday than I've ever seen from Zverev, and I say that as a Zverev fan. It would be a very cool matchup though. I think Dimitrov has enough wrinkles in his game to trouble Zverev mightily. Lots of slice and dropshots.
 
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