2018 ATP Tokyo Final - Nishikori v Medvedev
- Thread starter Meles
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The Green Mile
Bionic Poster
ABM
Meles
Bionic Poster
So are you now forced into watching since this is a final?
I never thought much of Med until his recent vein of form starting in Winston-Salem. His return was enough...
to be decent you could tell because of his reach on first serves, but the serve was pretty weak especially for Med's height with just 62-63% serve points won. I knew with time the serve would get better over the years, but elite 70% points won just seemed a distant dream.
Med has played a lot of matches since the beginning of 2018 Winston-Salem and the stats are astonishing with a whopping 41.2% return points won, more than I'd ever thing possible for Medvedev over a large sample size. The serve is also way, way up at 67.0% even though the Ace% is actually down. 53.9% points won is as good as Djokovic's US Open Series stats. This must be a case of the stats erring on the high side as I'm not sure about Med in this final let alone the near guaranteed 2nd round match with Fed upcoming in Shanghai. Players often get a big bump around age 22 and Medvedev is way, way up. I believe we are looking at a top ten player basically right now and the rankings should catch up in 2019. Shocking stats.
Meles
Bionic Poster
If Medvedev serves big enough on first serve he'll do just fine as Nishikori not the best against bigger servers and really cleans up on 2nd return. The flip side is Medvedev's reach which allow him to get more first serves back than most of Nishikori's opponents so far.
The other contrast is ground game. Medvedev has been unbelievably consistent. Nishikori can do this as well, but often likes to go big. I'm not sure if Kei will get the balance right of consistency with judicious winner attempts. Medvedev's depth may have him losing the UE battle.
I've gone Medvedev in three for this one as I do think Kei is in great form, but I think the inevitable grindathon will favor Med.
The Green Mile
Bionic Poster
My boy Medvedev has played 53 matches on the main tour this year, only three against top ten and twelve in the top twenty (6-6 record)So are you now forced into watching since this is a final?
I never thought much of Med until his recent vein of form starting in Winston-Salem. His return was enough...
to be decent you could tell because of his reach on first serves, but the serve was pretty weak especially for Med's height with just 62-63% serve points won. I knew with time the serve would get better over the years, but elite 70% points won just seemed a distant dream.
Med has played a lot of matches since the beginning of 2018 Winston-Salem and the stats are astonishing with a whopping 41.2% return points won, more than I'd ever thing possible for Medvedev over a large sample size. The serve is also way, way up at 67.0% even though the Ace% is actually down. 53.9% points won is as good as Djokovic's US Open Series stats. This must be a case of the stats erring on the high side as I'm not sure about Med in this final let alone the near guaranteed 2nd round match with Fed upcoming in Shanghai. Players often get a big bump around age 22 and Medvedev is way, way up. I believe we are looking at a top ten player basically right now and the rankings should catch up in 2019. Shocking stats.
This looks like a case of inflated stats no doubt 
Though Tokyo has looked impressive from the opponents he's played and the accounts from a few posters who have watched Daniil this week. I think a top ten placing is a bit too much right now. I wasn't being overly serious about not watching Daniil on replay, if the match up is interesting and it's deep in a tournament, I'll possibly watch it.
Meles
Bionic Poster
My boy Medvedev has played 53 matches on the main tour this year, only three against top ten and twelve in the top twenty (6-6 record)
I wasn't being overly serious about not watching Daniil on replay, if the match up is interesting and it's deep in a tournament, I'll possibly watch it.
He's beaten 4 in the top 20 and gave a peak form Thiem a close, close match. In Tokyo he's at 55.1% points won with 70% on serve and 41% on return. Ninja is higher due to superlative 47% won on return points fueled by over 60% on 2nd return points. If Med serves well again with less 2nd serve points this won't matter as much and Ninja only managed 30% on first return with Gasquet. Medvedev won 80% of his first serve points against Shapo so if Kei dips much below 30% on first return he may not break so much. Medvedev has been at 35 to 40% on first return points this week accept with Raonic who was absolutely goating on serve until the break in the 2nd set. Kei is going to see a lot more break points in this match on serve; don't see him winning 85% of first serve points like the last two matches.
40 / 2018 Tokyo
F I Hard Daniil Medvedev Kei Nishikori Upcoming H2H 2.95 - 1.40 10th ATP race
SF I Hard Daniil Medvedev Denis Shapovalov 6-3 6-3 H2H 1.80 - 2.00 26th ATP race
QF I Hard Daniil Medvedev Milos Raonic 7-6(4) 6-3 H2H 2.62 - 1.50 13th ATP race
R16 I Hard Daniil Medvedev Martin Klizan 6-4 6-3 H2H 1.61 - 2.20 37th ATP race
R32 I Hard Daniil Medvedev Diego Sebastian Schwartzman 6-4 6-4 H2H 1.59 - 2.35 20th ATP race
FQ I Hard Daniil Medvedev Egor Gerasimov 6-7(4) 6-3 6-3 H2H 1.28 - 3.55
SFQ I Hard Daniil Medvedev Hiroki Moriya 6-3 6-3 H2H 1.11 - 5.85
38 / 2018 St. Petersburg
QF I Hard Dominic Thiem Daniil Medvedev 6-2 3-6 7-6(2) H2H 1.53 - 2.50 8th ATP race
R16 I Hard Daniil Medvedev Mikhail Kukushkin 6-3 6-4 H2H 1.43 - 2.85
R32 I Hard Daniil Medvedev Joao Sousa 6-4 6-1 H2H 1.50 - 2.50 43rd ATP race
35 / 2018 US Open
R32 Hard Borna Coric Daniil Medvedev 6-3 7-5 6-2 H2H 1.65 - 2.23 19th ATP race
R64 Hard Daniil Medvedev Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-4 6-3 4-6 6-3 H2H 2.00 - 1.80 12th ATP race
R128 Hard Daniil Medvedev Evgeny Donskoy 7-5 6-4 6-2 H2H 1.30 - 3.40
33 / 2018 Winston-Salem
F Hard Daniil Medvedev Steve Johnson 6-4 6-4 H2H 1.90 - 1.90 33rd ATP race
SF Hard Daniil Medvedev Taro Daniel 6-1 6-1 H2H 1.48 - 2.65
QF Hard Daniil Medvedev Ryan Harrison 7-6(4) 6-4 H2H 1.90 - 1.90
R16 Hard Daniil Medvedev Guido Andreozzi 7-5 6-1 H2H 1.16 - 5.00
R32 Hard Daniil Medvedev Alex De Minaur 6-3 6-3 H2H 30th ATP race
R64 Hard Daniil Medvedev Mirza Basic 6-4 6-4 H2H 1.30 - 3.40
Gary Duane
Talk Tennis Guru
I don't usually pay as much attention to M500s with none of the top guys in it left that I'm interested in, but this week I was interested in Demon and Menace.If Medvedev serves big enough on first serve he'll do just fine as Nishikori not the best against bigger servers and really cleans up on 2nd return. The flip side is Medvedev's reach which allow him to get more first serves back than most of Nishikori's opponents so far.
The other contrast is ground game. Medvedev has been unbelievably consistent. Nishikori can do this as well, but often likes to go big. I'm not sure if Kei will get the balance right of consistency with judicious winner attempts. Medvedev's depth may have him losing the UE battle.
I've gone Medvedev in three for this one as I do think Kei is in great form, but I think the inevitable grindathon will favor Med.
I'm not keen on another 6'6" guy getting to the top. I actually hope it doesn't happen. I'm not keen on giraffes. So although Nishi is not my favorite, I'm pulling for him. I want to see guys around 6' win more, including some slams. For me 6'3" is about tops for players I enjoy watching.
Match scheduled for 2:30 AM my time. That's good. I usually stay up until around 5 AM, and no work tomorrow.
Meles
Bionic Poster
Perhaps you'll like this new Medvedev, dangerous like Nishioka, but not as much serve as Schwartzman.I don't usually pay as much attention to M500s with none of the top guys in it left that I'm interested in, but this week I was interested in Demon and Menace.
I'm not keen on another 6'6" guy getting to the top. I actually hope it doesn't happen. I'm not keen on giraffes. So although Nishi is not my favorite, I'm pulling for him. I want to see guys around 6' win more, including some slams. For me 6'3" is about tops for players I enjoy watching.
Match scheduled for 2:30 AM my time. That's good. I usually stay up until around 5 AM, and no work tomorrow.
Meles
Bionic Poster
If Med keeps pouring in first serves its going to be rough.
Meles
Bionic Poster
Medvedev is some kind of god these days.
I Am Finnish
Bionic Poster
Nishikori is injuried?
Meles
Bionic Poster
Not at all. First serve isn't bad. Just getting crushed on his 2nd serve. Medvedev serving quite big. 6 aces, 64% first serves in and 86% won. Basically Nishikori can't touch his first serve.
Meles
Bionic Poster
He's 6 foot 6
Meles
Bionic Poster
No. He's at his best and getting smoked.
I Am Finnish
Bionic Poster
He is a servebotFive love holds in a row for Med.
I Am Finnish
Bionic Poster
No Medvedev is serving unbeleeble good
Meles
Bionic Poster
Zedzilla wet dream or something today; if you get the first back he brings maximum pressure on his first shot.He is a servebot
I Am Finnish
Bionic Poster
Medvedev in 2 or Nishikori in 3
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