2018 ATP Tokyo Final - Nishikori v Medvedev

Who wins?


  • Total voters
    11
  • Poll closed .
Congrats to Medvedev on winning his 3rd title of the year, 3rd overall and 1st at 500 level. He suddenly seems to have come good and we can only wonder how far he can kick off from here? :cool:

As for Nishikori: now 8 finals in a row lost....just ouch!!! :eek:
Nishikori still titleless for over 2.5 years now. Raonic too.

Dimitrov has yet to win a title this year.

The Lost Gen will always be the Lost Gen.
 
Medvedev is a an absolute baller. But what happened to his season from Feb to Sep? I remember he won a small title in Australia back in January and this is the first I've seen him do well since then.
 
Medvedev is a an absolute baller. But what happened to his season from Feb to Sep? I remember he won a small title in Australia back in January and this is the first I've seen him do well since then.
He has reached the 3rd round of the last 2 majors so not too shabby.
 
what was the Australia issue?
What was the Australia issue?

I have not been following this kid. I'm looking at stats, and he's a guy you can expect to win around 80% of service games. All of a sudden he has a serve like Raonic. Where did this come from? He looked like a bot serving, and the kid does not have a bad return game either.

This was impressive. Can he keep it up?

And why in the world does he have to play qualies?
Med was ranked 65 after playing on one leg during grass season. Won Winston-Salem, but entries for main draw go back six weeks so no go for Tokyo, but direct entry to Shanghai.:p
Unfortunately they edited the most hilarious part where he trolls his girlfriend who got rejected from Australia for visa problem.
 
:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:;)

What did I just watch? That was not the Medvedev I had come to dislike over the past couple of years. This Medvedev had far better shot tolerance and margin to his game, such an awkward ball to counter. Kei was useless off the ground today and one can imagine that Medvedev's quirky ball striking played a significant factor there. Flat, deep and early cuts on the ball, but rather controlled and penetrating. Still, you'd think Kei would have found some sort of rhythm instead of sulking throughout :rolleyes: 27 UEs all up. Terrible way to end the match, disgusting gift of a break.

Kei couldn't read the serve at all either, and Daniil is one of the players who take no time between points, not a great combination. I just wonder how Medvedev will do in the next few years when the tour players start to get used to his peculiar game style. I feel like he's racking up a lot of these results, because these players were not ready for Daniil and struggled to adjust. Execution seems to be quite the meaningful determinant when coming across this big kid. Or am I just talking out of my arse here?

I seem to recall some matches where Medvedev would get into a brilliant groove on serve, so I'm curious as to how long he can keep this sort of serving form up. I would think it's just been a one off tournament with his serving stats that much better and let's not even get into the under double digit UE count, hasn't that happened three times this week? Uhm, wtf...
 
I already knew where he was on return because I use ATP profiles to get the big picture.

https://www.atpworldtour.com/en/players/daniil-medvedev/mm58/player-stats

22% of games on return for career. If you get lazy and only check AS, it usually is the same as HCs because grass and clay will cancel each other out.

Now look at 78% of service games. There is the past problem. Add 78 and 22, you get 100, which is around 50% of games. It's no surprise he has 50% of points, because those two stats are connected. That's an average player who will never go anywhere without getting those numbers up.

Now check this year:

https://www.atpworldtour.com/en/players/daniil-medvedev/mm58/player-stats?year=2018&surfaceType=all

79/23, so figure 102, 51% of games, somewhere around 50.5% of points. Not much more impressive.

So who is this new monster we saw last week?

It looks to me like someone tweaked the serve. I seem to remember that at some point Roddick changed something in his delivery or windup, or something like that, and suddenly he had the Roddick serve that everyone feared. I guess sometimes things snap into place. The serve I saw last night would earn him games in the high 80s, and when the serve gets a lot better, return games get better because there is more energy there to break.

I don't fully believe it yet. I have to see him hold onto this "new game", but if he does, look out world.

@Meles saw it first. I saw him tear the wings off Shapo, but at that point I thought it was just Shapo running out of gas.
Run your stats from beginning of Winston-Salem... I'll run the games numbers... 17-2, 87.2% hold rate, 34.2% break rate, 68.0% serve points won, 41.2% return points, and 54.2% points won. At Tokyo 93.2% hold rate and 56.0% points won. The Med serve has been visibly on fire in Tokyo. 7 UEs against Nishikori shows how crazy consistent his ground game has been. Surely he'll cool down somewhat on serve down the road, but I'm sure they've made some adjustment that along with physical maturation accounting for this big improvement. I doubt the serve goes away back to the previous hold rates or even close. Med is not over powering his serves and has excellent precision.
 
Run your stats from beginning of Winston-Salem... I'll run the games numbers... 17-2, 87.2% hold rate, 34.2% break rate, 68.0% serve points won, 41.2% return points, and 54.2% points won. At Tokyo 93.2% hold rate and 56.0% points won. The Med serve has been visibly on fire in Tokyo. 7 UEs against Nishikori shows how crazy consistent his ground game has been. Surely he'll cool down somewhat on serve down the road, but I'm sure they've made some adjustment that along with physical maturation accounting for this big improvement. I doubt the serve goes away back to the previous hold rates or even close. Med is not over powering his serves and has excellent precision.
I never look at stats over such a short period of time. For that I just go by what I've seen. You say 93% hold rate at Tokyo. Not a word about return games, but you give one of the two most important stats - total points won. 56% is ATG level, so if he stays anywhere close to that over a few months time, you are looking at winning slams.

Doing a bit of guessitmating: 56% of points is usually around 62% of games (but can vary greatly over a short period of time, so let's guess 93/29 or around 29% of return games. If his return game is improving that fast (which I doubt) you will see that figure rocket up over the next 6-12 months.

I'm guessing the serve is the real deal. It looked effortless, so my guess is that we saw a Roddick-like change recently that could possibly stay for the rest of his career.

Stay tuned!!!
 
Med was ranked 65 after playing on one leg during grass season. Won Winston-Salem, but entries for main draw go back six weeks so no go for Tokyo, but direct entry to Shanghai.:p
Unfortunately they edited the most hilarious part where he trolls his girlfriend who got rejected from Australia for visa problem.
Ah, A visa problem. Sounds like she didn't take care of the paperwork in time. ;)

I guess this kid has a big temper problem too...
 
I never look at stats over such a short period of time. For that I just go by what I've seen. You say 93% hold rate at Tokyo. Not a word about return games, but you give one of the two most important stats - total points won. 56% is ATG level, so if he stays anywhere close to that over a few months time, you are looking at winning slams.

Doing a bit of guessitmating: 56% of points is usually around 62% of games (but can vary greatly over a short period of time, so let's guess 93/29 or around 29% of return games. If his return game is improving that fast (which I doubt) you will see that figure rocket up over the next 6-12 months.

I'm guessing the serve is the real deal. It looked effortless, so my guess is that we saw a Roddick-like change recently that could possibly stay for the rest of his career.

Stay tuned!!!
34.2% break rate for the larger period. It might have been a hair lower in Tokyo, 33.2% comes to mind. I agree on the shortness of period. Med will not continue at a 56% rate. As you well know 53-54% is excellent so Med's looking very good.
 
34.2% break rate for the larger period. It might have been a hair lower in Tokyo, 33.2% comes to mind. I agree on the shortness of period. Med will not continue at a 56% rate. As you well know 53-54% is excellent so Med's looking very good.

Medvedev seems like a guy with a high peak but a game that falls away badly when not on song. It would be pretty rare for a guy to win 3 tour events in a season but only be ranked about 20.
 
Medvedev is a an absolute baller. But what happened to his season from Feb to Sep? I remember he won a small title in Australia back in January and this is the first I've seen him do well since then.
Sucks on clay. Played one legged on grass, fave surface. He really was not anywhere near as good when he won Sydney. The way he finished Sydney against Demon with a wildly biased hometown crowd was epic, but level nowhere near what he summoned this week. Winston-Salem was a step up, but Med was just better there and not on fire.
 
Medvedev seems like a guy with a high peak but a game that falls away badly when not on song. It would be pretty rare for a guy to win 3 tour events in a season but only be ranked about 20.
When even seasoned geezers like Dimitrov, Raonic, and Nishikori are struggling due to strong era, what can you reasonably expect from the likes of Rublev, Khachanov, and Medvedev? Med waiting for Federer syndicate to pay enough in bribe money to bulldoze over clay season. One legged Medvedev derailed on museum circuit.
 
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