2018 Shanghai SF - (1) Federer vs. (13.) Ćorić

Who win?

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Had to get some sleep, and heading for work. I'll see the match later and do a post-mortem.

But I don't understand why anyone is surprised that an aging ATG has up and down days. The only thing that is abnormal here is that Fed still plays so well SOME days. I don't know what else you expect of a 37 year old tennis player.

The pattern is always the same for ATGs. Player A is much older than play B. A dominates B early on, then there is parity, than B gains the upper hand. Since Coric so far is only a young player who may or may not grow into an ATG, the pattern still holds. From now on every time Fed plays an up and coming young player, that younger player is going to have a greater and greater chance of pulling off an upset.

In 2017 and for the beginning of 2018 Fed defied the odds, but he simply can't defy Father Time forever. People keep talking about "false dawns". What we are really looking at is some unusual "Indian summers". Fed is the first to obviously slip because he is the oldest, but it is inevitable that the same thing will happen to Nadal, if it has not already happened, and Djokovic, as the youngest of the three, is next.

I don't know why fans of these three ATGs think it is logical or normal for them to go on winning big titles forever.

Djokovic has to be the favorite tomorrow, but his fans should not expect him to stay at this level for years and years. The transitional period @Meles has been talking about may be a lot closer than fans realize. ;)
 
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Gary Duane said:
Had to get some sleep, and heading for work. I'll see the match later and do a post-mortem.

But I don't understand why anyone is surprised that an aging ATG has up and down days. The only thing that is abnormal here is that Fed still plays so well SOME days. I don't know what else expect of a 37 year old tennis player.

The pattern is always the same for ATGs. Player A is much older than play B. A dominates B early on, then there is parity, than B gains the upper hand. Since Coric so far is only a young player who may or may not grow into an ATG, the pattern still holds. From now on every time Fed plays and up and coming young player, that younger player is going to have a greater and greater chance of pulling off an upset.

In 2017 and for the beginning of 2018 Fed defied the odds, but he simply can't defy Father Time forever. People keep talking about "false dawns". What we are really looking at is some unusual "Indian summers". Fed is the first to obviously slip because he is the oldest, but it is inevitable that the same thing will happen to Nadal, if it has not already happened, and Djokovic, as the youngest of the three, is next.

I don't know why fans of these three ATGs think it is logical or normal for them to go on winning big titles forever.

Djokovic has to be the favorite tomorrow, but his fans should not expect him to stay at this level for years and years. The transitional period @Meles has been talking about may be a lot closer than fans realize. ;)
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Well said.

At the end, it comes for all of us.
 
The Fedfather said:
Didn't watch the match. Does anyone have stats? Screenshots with them I mean.
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I'm not sure if someone mentioned but Fed won only 8 or 9 points on Coric's serve ... Fed didn't even have a break chance. I could be wrong though but it was bad. Coric certainly served great. Djokovic will probably neutralize his serve tomorrow.
 
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mike danny said:
You know Fed has severely declined when he struggles with the likes of Boric.
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Fed has been in visible and rapid decline since Shanghai 2017. He was fortunate to face a chokemeister in the 2018 AO final, had an easy draw in Rotterdam and from then on, has played abysmally by his standards. The only display of great play from him this year really was in Stuttgart against Raonic and Nick.

What do people expect when he’s the age he is?
 
What a major bummer that Federer got destroyed today. Fed is a whole level below the top 5 guys and two whole levels below Djokovic.

Fed has clearly hit that wall that Agassi spoke about. Agassi said that when you get to a certain age, your level will fall off of a cliff quickly.

Unfortunately, this has happened to Fed. This beat down today was terrible. Federer is having far more off days than ever before. He has been terrible this tourney.

I still like watching him play. I no longer expect him to win. All good things come to an end. But it has been fun being a Fed fan for the past 16 years.
 
If I was to tell you that a guy won a grand slam, made the semi of a masters 1000 and the final of two more Masters, won a 500 and made the final of another and was number two in the world for most of the year with a couple of short stints at number one, would you think he should retire? If he wasn’t Fed and wasn’t 37 would you seriously think that? As a fan, it hurts because I hate to see him struggle like this especially after last year, but overall most players in the ATP would kill for a year like that. Today was bad and it seemed like he wasn’t moving well and wasn’t timing the ball well, including his serve. Coric served very well and was solid so he didn’t allow Fed to get back into the match after he got the early break in both sets. Kudos to Coric but after all is said and done, at 37 Fed made the semis of a Masters 1000. No doubt Djokovic will win tomorrow and he is the comeback guy for the year like Fed was last year. We can only hope some of the youngsters step up soon. Sascha was totally destroyed this morning.
 
Gary Duane said:
Had to get some sleep, and heading for work. I'll see the match later and do a post-mortem.

But I don't understand why anyone is surprised that an aging ATG has up and down days. The only thing that is abnormal here is that Fed still plays so well SOME days. I don't know what else you expect of a 37 year old tennis player.

The pattern is always the same for ATGs. Player A is much older than play B. A dominates B early on, then there is parity, than B gains the upper hand. Since Coric so far is only a young player who may or may not grow into an ATG, the pattern still holds. From now on every time Fed plays an up and coming young player, that younger player is going to have a greater and greater chance of pulling off an upset.

In 2017 and for the beginning of 2018 Fed defied the odds, but he simply can't defy Father Time forever. People keep talking about "false dawns". What we are really looking at is some unusual "Indian summers". Fed is the first to obviously slip because he is the oldest, but it is inevitable that the same thing will happen to Nadal, if it has not already happened, and Djokovic, as the youngest of the three, is next.

I don't know why fans of these three ATGs think it is logical or normal for them to go on winning big titles forever.

Djokovic has to be the favorite tomorrow, but his fans should not expect him to stay at this level for years and years. The transitional period @Meles has been talking about may be a lot closer than fans realize. ;)
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Tour is changing with so many young players in the top 30. Its not going to be the same old familiar pigeons lining up for much longer.

One-legged Coric will take on Djoko. Djoko's improved first serve performance is just a game changer. I'm not sure who might stop him among the NextGen, but we'll be seeing more of those matches. Bottom line is the seemingly familiar Coric is still just 21 years old. He's likely to have some more speed boosts over the next couple years before he enters his prime. It will be interesting to see how he matches with Djoko later today in Shanghai. I'll analyze that match in a bit, but my instinct based on head to head is this should be an impressive win for Djoko.
 
NBP said:
I think the last time Federer didn't have a break point in a Masters match was Toronto 2014 vs. Tsonga, but to happen vs. Coric is laughable.
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Why?
Coric has a really good kicker on a second serve and his % of points won after his second serve is usually high, occasionally impressive. And his first serve became powerful.

underground said:
Fed needs to go back to the drawing board and sort out his tactics, big time. That BH is consistent but only useful against the likes of Nadal and certain pushers/defenders. With aggressive baseliners he needs his slice and patience, he did it against these players time and time again back in 2012 and he certainly still has the tools in his game. He just came into this match without any gameplan whatsoever.
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I mainly watched the second set only. He looked pretty disappointed to me with the way he played. Sometimes you can go in self-destruct mode when you deal too much with yourself instead of dealing with the opponent. And you get too negative to turn the match around, you need to be positive to pull it off. I think tanking ideas are ridiculous as Fed's face expression was completely sour after the match.
 
mike danny said:
Yes, because I consider him overrated. And all his wins over top players have come when they were in horrible form.
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He barely entered into top 20 this year. What's overrated with this. True, Borna did announce he might be knocking into top 10 door soon, but the inconsistency of results made it clear he's not yet there. Yet with his good game he is a danger practically to anyone. One might think he played really well today, maybe he did but he can do better.
 
I am happy to have someone to root for in the final - Borna Coric! (: He played a superb match and I especially was happy with his mental game. (:
 
Meles said:
Tour is changing with so many young players in the top 30. Its not going to be the same old familiar pigeons lining up for much longer.

One-legged Coric will take on Djoko. Djoko's improved first serve performance is just a game changer. I'm not sure who might stop him among the NextGen, but we'll be seeing more of those matches. Bottom line is the seemingly familiar Coric is still just 21 years old. He's likely to have some more speed boosts over the next couple years before he enters his prime. It will be interesting to see how he matches with Djoko later today in Shanghai. I'll analyze that match in a bit, but my instinct based on head to head is this should be an impressive win for Djoko.
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Yup. I see it the same way. Djokovic. His career points on return for the year are right back up to his career average, and that is even more impressive when you realize that averages in comparatively weak results for the first few months of the year.

Coric is basically Djokovic in a younger body. No weaknesses with his greatest asset being always ready to play one more ball, which means he's playing someone who is better at everything. I think he has a chance if he is red hot, and Novak has an off day. But you just have to go with Djokovic in the final.

But what's the "one legged" thing about? I saw a trainer come out two days ago. I haven't seen today's match yet.
 
zalive said:
I mainly watched the second set only. He looked pretty disappointed to me with the way he played. Sometimes you can go in self-destruct mode when you deal too much with yourself instead of dealing with the opponent. And you get too negative to turn the match around, you need to be positive to pull it off. I think tanking ideas are ridiculous as Fed's face expression was completely sour after the match.
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He was frustrated because he was outrallied from the baseline. And it becomes a vicious cycle, because Fed is freaking stubborn af (his biggest weakness IMO), and he ends up trying the same thing hoping it gets better (it obviously doesn't).
 
tennisaddict said:
Let us talk when Coric makes the QF of a slam
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Gary Duane said:
Yup. I see it the same way. Djokovic. His career points on return for the year are right back up to his career average, and that is even more impressive when you realize that averages in comparatively weak results for the first few months of the year.

Coric is basically Djokovic in a younger body. No weaknesses with his greatest asset being always ready to play one more ball, which means he's playing someone who is better at everything. I think he has a chance if he is red hot, and Novak has an off day. But you just have to go with Djokovic in the final.

But what's the "one legged" thing about? I saw a trainer come out two days ago. I haven't seen today's match yet.
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Leg tapped up and hopping on the other against Fed; you'll see.:D
 
Meles said:
Tour is changing with so many young players in the top 30. Its not going to be the same old familiar pigeons lining up for much longer.

One-legged Coric will take on Djoko. Djoko's improved first serve performance is just a game changer. I'm not sure who might stop him among the NextGen, but we'll be seeing more of those matches. Bottom line is the seemingly familiar Coric is still just 21 years old. He's likely to have some more speed boosts over the next couple years before he enters his prime. It will be interesting to see how he matches with Djoko later today in Shanghai. I'll analyze that match in a bit, but my instinct based on head to head is this should be an impressive win for Djoko.
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How many big titles did the young gen win this year ? unless you want to count Washington DC

ZERO-PARTNER-graphic.png
 
BeatlesFan said:
You obviously haven’t the slightest clue what the definition of “servebot” is. :rolleyes:
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And you don't seem to have a clue about the difference between Fed and Djoko's return game. Look it up. Fed is not a "servebot" in the purist sense of piling up aces but his serve is THE shot that's keeping him competitive right now. (#4 in 1st serve points won and #1 in service games won for 2018. He's #44 in 2nd serve return and out of top 15 for RG won. Without his serve, he would not be a top player by a long shot). Fed's serve is extremely effective without needing aces. It's always been his trademark. That's why he's doing so well on fast surfaces like Cincy and Dubai.
 
veroniquem said:
Not true. Z won Madrid.
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Zverev obviously has ability otherwise he wouldn't be winning Masters and have such a high ranking at such a young age but I'm REALLY struggling to see the game or even the foreshadowing of a game that could truly dominate the tour. Don't you think he's more likely to have a Muzziah career than a Djovakian one?
 
-NN- said:
Zverev obviously has ability otherwise he wouldn't be winning Masters and have such a high ranking at such a young age but I'm REALLY struggling to see the game or even the foreshadowing of a game that could truly dominate the tour. Don't you think he's more likely to have a Muzziah career than a Djovakian one?
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This one has the possibility to go either way. It remains to be seen.
 
tennisaddict said:
How many big titles did the young gen win this year ? unless you want to count Washington DC

ZERO-PARTNER-graphic.png
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Well I wouldn't blame them for salivating over vacuum of the 2003 -- 2007. The obesity epidemic, for one thing, did not take hold until post 2002, with the likes of Jesse Witten hauling their massive weight around in the slams and the likes of Nalbandian/Baghdatis saturating slam finals.
 
-NN- said:
He needs to add oil for the home stretch but those gears are definitely cranky.
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It's a simple matter of winning games vs not winning enough and getting into long matches. For whatever reason his serve was off all week. I don't have stats, but I know that against someone (was it Medvedev?) he got broken three times in one set, I think the 2nd. People talk about his serve holding him up, but he has one of the most amazing service games we've ever seen, tops for a guy his height, and that's because he has a very good serve (not the best) backed up by incredible skills that complement that serve perfectly when they are working. His return was quite good this week on several occasions.

His game, like Sampras's, has always been built around the idea of scoring quickly and being highly aggressive returning to earn games he needs in addition to service games.

Those game stats fall off a cliff when his return goes off because he needs many of the same strokes he uses, in returning, to dominate on serve.
 
veroniquem said:
And you don't seem to have a clue about the difference between Fed and Djoko's return game. Look it up. Fed is not a "servebot" in the purist sense of piling up aces but his serve is THE shot that's keeping him competitive right now. (#4 in 1st serve points won and #1 in service games won for 2018. He's #44 in 2nd serve return and out of top 15 for RG won. Without his serve, he would not be a top player by a long shot). Fed's serve is extremely effective without needing aces. It's always been his trademark. That's why he's doing so well on fast surfaces like Cincy and Dubai.
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But a bit of push back: Servebots win most of their service games when nothing else works, as obvious from a guy like Karlovic. These are the players who end up amazingly close to 50% of points and close to 50% of games won.

https://www.atpworldtour.com/en/players/ivo-karlovic/k336/player-stats

Just estimate, 92% of service games, 9% of return games for around 50% of games. You can expect a net gain of more than 1 point per game from serves that never get touched, and that's after subtracting DFs.

That figure for Fed is less than half of that. It's not nearly as extreme as Nadal, obviously, but even Nadal has won 85% of all his service games on clay for his career.

And Fed, with his "almost servebot" serve? The same, 85%. You can't separate all court skills from the serve. Nadal, as good as he is on clay, would not have all those titles on clay without suffocating people serving games, and he does that applying all his defensive skills behind the serve.

When either Nadal or Fed - and this includes Djokovic too - falter on the return, it moves right into the service game, and even if the serve is working pretty well most of the time, when it beings to falter these ATGs depend on defensive skills to pull out service games.
 
Meles said:
Well I wouldn't blame them for salivating over vacuum of the 2003 -- 2007. The obesity epidemic, for one thing, did not take hold until post 2002, with the likes of Jesse Witten hauling their massive weight around in the slams and the likes of Nalbandian/Baghdatis saturating slam finals.
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The young gen , next gen or whatever should commit mass suicide for letting 31, 32 and 37 year old win all 4 majors and all big titles.

30+ year olds Delpo, Anderson, Cilic, Isner, Nishikori make up the top 10 for crying out loud.
 
tennisaddict said:
The young gen , next gen or whatever should commit mass suicide for letting 31, 32 and 37 year old win all 4 majors and all big titles.

30+ year olds Delpo, Anderson, Cilic, Isner, Nishikori make up the top 10 for crying out loud.
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Federe has been improving steadily over the years, but the current field is just not impressed. Bring back the 2003 - 2007 servebot volleyless Roddick, 5' Hewitt, obese Nalbandian, and you got your "aura" back lol.
 
Federer's backhand drive is so aesthetically displeasing these days, especially when playing reactive tennis. His lateral movement has looked choppy and lacks that fluidity. Borna did look like a prime Djokovic out there, amazing to watch. What the hell was with Borna's accuracy on the forehand today? Amazing. Handled the slice variety from Fed comfortably as well...
 
The Green Mile said:
Federer's backhand drive is so aesthetically displeasing these days, especially when playing reactive tennis. His lateral movement has looked choppy and lacks that fluidity. Borna did look like a prime Djokovic out there, amazing to watch. What the hell was with Borna's accuracy on the forehand today? Amazing. Handled the slice variety from Fed comfortably as well...
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Right. I see things beyond pure form that don't look good with Fed. Like you say, his choppy movement and lack of fluidity/flow. It's pretty unusual. That's why he's finally looking his age to me.
 
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