2018 Stats Through Auz; Geriatrics and NextGen Lead the Way

Meles

Bionic Poster
Serve games won (a real stunner as 5 of the top 7 NextGen):
1 Roger Federer 94.34% 100 106 7
2 Nick Kyrgios 93.70% 119 127 8
3 Gilles Muller 90.63% 87 96 6
4 Karen Khachanov 88.89% 64 72 5
5 Dominic Thiem 88.18% 97 110 7
6 Kyle Edmund 87.88% 145 165 9
7 Denis Shapovalov 87.84% 65 74 5

First serve points won:
1 Roger Federer 81.58% 310 380 7
2 Nick Kyrgios 81.50% 423 519 8
3 Gilles Muller 81.35% 314 386 6
4 Denis Shapovalov 80.97% 200 247 5
5 Marin Cilic 80.45% 469 583 10
6 Joao Sousa 79.05% 166 210 4
7 Tomas Berdych 78.72% 259 329 6
8 Dominic Thiem 78.67% 343 436 7
(Really close here and great lead by Fed, but Thiem and Shapo surprise)

Second serve points won (crazy high numbers from the king of the geriatrics here):
1 Roger Federer 60.42% 145 240 7
2 Guido Pella 57.26% 71 124 5
3 Matthew Ebden 57.00% 57 100 4
4 Albert Ramos-Vinolas 56.50% 100 177 5
5 Andreas Seppi 56.48% 122 216 4
6 Denis Shapovalov 56.25% 99 176 5
7 Adrian Mannarino 55.96% 122 218 6
8 Rafael Nadal 55.06% 87 158 5
9 Kyle Edmund 54.62% 207 379 9
10 Marin Cilic 54.44% 196 360 10
11 John Millman 54.26% 102 188 6
12 Nick Kyrgios 54.12% 138 255 8
13 Kevin Anderson 53.95% 82 152 5
14 Karen Khachanov 53.89% 90 167 5
15 Fabio Fognini 53.74% 158 294 7
16 Alex de Minaur 53.36% 135 253 10
17 Richard Gasquet 53.21% 58 109 5
18 Hyeon Chung 53.05% 165 311 11
19 Daniil Medvedev 52.78% 114 216 7

(7 of 19 NextGen which is not a complete surprise as they have movement on their side)

Return Games won:
1 Novak Djokovic 38.33% 23 60 4
2 Rafael Nadal 36.00% 27 75 5
3 Tomas Berdych 35.23% 31 88 6
4 Andrey Rublev 34.75% 41 118 8
5 David Ferrer 33.33% 21 63 5
6 Gilles Simon 32.89% 25 76 8
7 Peter Gojowczyk 32.22% 29 90 8
8 Richard Gasquet 32.20% 19 59 5
9 Alex de Minaur 30.97% 35 113 10
10 Marton Fucsovics 30.11% 28 93 6
11 Fernando Verdasco 29.49% 23 78 5
12 Diego Schwartzman 28.85% 30 104 6
13 Nikoloz Basilashvili 28.77% 21 73 5
14 Roger Federer 27.88% 29 104 7

(Impressive for the geriatric contingent including Fed with 28% of return games won. Rublev and Demon(aur) standout for NextGen. Bendych, Simon, and Ferrer most impressive.)

First Return Points:
1 Novak Djokovic 40.45% 108 267 4
2 Peter Gojowczyk 35.47% 127 358 8
3 Fernando Verdasco 35.01% 118 337 5
4 David Ferrer 34.16% 83 243 5
5 Dominic Thiem 33.92% 173 510 7
6 Daniil Medvedev 33.85% 130 384 7
7 Diego Schwartzman 33.72% 147 436 6
8 Nikoloz Basilashvili 33.70% 93 276 5
9 Gilles Simon 33.69% 94 279 8
10 Richard Gasquet 33.48% 77 230 5
11 Rafael Nadal 33.44% 108 323 5
12 Tomas Berdych 33.33% 115 345 6
13 Andrey Rublev 33.26% 159 478 8
14 Borna Coric 33.18% 71 214 4

[Nole impressive, Ferrer also. Thiem and Medvedev known for first return. Surprises here in Schwartzman, Rublev (know for 2nd return), and Coric (who has had really bad returning for years now)]

2nd Return Points Won:
1 Rafael Nadal 61.35% 127 207 5
2 Pablo Carreno Busta 59.43% 126 212 5
3 Andrey Rublev 58.00% 174 300 8
4 Aljaz Bedene 57.89% 66 114 4
5 Mikhail Kukushkin 57.35% 78 136 4
6 Guido Pella 57.06% 93 163 5
7 Tomas Berdych 56.64% 128 226 6
8 David Ferrer 56.59% 116 205 5
9 Richard Gasquet 56.25% 90 160 5
10 Roberto Bautista Agut 55.87% 119 213 7
11 Lukas Lacko 55.84% 86 154 4
12 Juan Martin del Potro 55.32% 130 235 7
13 Fernando Verdasco 55.23% 95 172 5
14 Alex de Minaur 55.14% 161 292 10

(Berdych appears again with the leaders as does Ferrer. PCB most impressive in 2nd. Rublev very impressive in 3rd and one of the 1st return leaders like Nadal.)

Break points are very deceptive as with time it all comes back to points. Games won also a more dubious stat because break points play a roll of course. So the long run story is points and here are the takeaways:
1. Federer leading all three serving stats is stunningly impressive and this pretty much is all due to the new backhand and his aggressive play. Chung SF and weak draw may have pumped his stats, but still just an amazing wow on 2nd serve where Fed had been in decline until 2017. Federer in the return games won leaders, but much of that may be clutch play as he's not near the top of the points stats.
2. Berdych, Gasquet, and Ferrer both very high on first and second return points. Typically return game is a big area of decline, so these three may still have some life in them. Djokovic leading 1st return points won a surprise and a bit suspicious.
3. Rublev just keeps improving on return. At 6' 2" tall its just a matter of time (years) before his serve game gets good enough. The biggest player to watch among NextGen especially on clay where he may get away with a weaker serve game a bit.

As I finish this the most amazing thing is a complete absence of LostGen (age 26-29) players among the leaders.:eek: 4 match minimum so some players just not eligible for inclusion.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
There were posters saying Fed served bad at AO...

This fixes that.
That new backhand really looking like its going to add years to his career. Both Nadal and Fed really jumped their 2nd serve numbers in their latest incarnation. Different paths, but great, great results and all due to coaching changes.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
@falstaff78 and @Gary Duane look at those extra digits on the numbers. ATP has lost there mind going with two more digits, but now the leaders are shown in correct order. Ridiculing their incompetence seems to have paid off.:D
 

Gary Duane

Talk Tennis Guru
@falstaff78 and @Gary Duane look at those extra digits on the numbers. ATP has lost there mind going with two more digits, but now the leaders are shown in correct order. Ridiculing their incompetence seems to have paid off.:D
Been there already, saw it the day the changed it. You are late to the party.

Unfortunately they did not do the same thing for the profiles, so you still can't look at total games and total points with a decimal.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
Thanks for all these stats dude.
It's how I've learned to scout the development of young players. Sometimes I'm a bit asleep at the switch (still haven't studied Edmund) and Zedbot I only woke up to on the eve of the Rome final. Knew Zed had a good start to the year, but didn't see the big jump in 2nd serve points won and the implications on clay (his destruction by Nadal in Monte Carlo threw me off the trail.) Chung and Rublev had a great start to the year, but analysis coming into Milan showed they had the return games to really compete in the long run. 2018 to date is a bit like reading the tea leaves, but for younger players the start (improvement) from the off-season is a big, big deal. I'll probably run these again the first week of IW to see the contenders.

Some times players may have really big jumps. Djokovic in early 2007 was such a case. He was considered a talent before this, but the early 2007 explosion culminating with deep runs in IW and Miami were just a giant leap in the stats for Nole. This was against a pretty weak field at the time, but still such strong numbers don't usually lie. If Chung keeps healthy in 2018 he'll keep moving upwards in the rankings and Rublev still very much alive for top 10 around the time of RG. If Zverev gains enough momentum he could easily pass a dormant Fed for #2 during the clay season and catch Nadal for #1. Lots of opportunity this year with so many of the geriatric players finally stumbling and falling down the rankings.
 

kOaMaster

Hall of Fame
If Zverev gains enough momentum he could easily pass a dormant Fed for #2 during the clay season and catch Nadal for #1.
That is hardly going to happen or even realistic, it's even just remotely possible.
Federer has only 2045 points to defend from now on until the end of the clay season with currently more than a 5000 points lead. Zverev has about the same amount of points to defend.
So for Zverev to overtake Federer, he'd need to win like 5 masters or 3 masters + FO. Seriously, this is so not going to happen.
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
That is hardly going to happen or even realistic, it's even just remotely possible.
Federer has only 2045 points to defend from now on until the end of the clay season with currently more than a 5000 points lead. Zverev has about the same amount of points to defend.
So for Zverev to overtake Federer, he'd need to win like 5 masters or 3 masters + FO. Seriously, this is so not going to happen.
Federer defending Auz probably has made the math too daunting for Zedrot. Two masters last year and an aging field this year, 3-5 masters not out of the question for the year for Zverev, but don't see going 5/5 and FO win would have to be a really great draw like he had in Rome last year where Zedbot gets through pretty easily to the latter stages and ends up with Djoko in the final lol.
 
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