2018 US Open Quarter-final - Rafael Nadal (1) vs Dominic Thiem (9)

[Hamnavoe]

This will be the pair's 11th meeting, but their first off clay courts. Nadal leads the head-to-head 7-3, with his last win coming in the French Open final in June, while Thiem's last win was in Madrid, a 7-5, 6-3 victory for the Austrian.

Following victory over 2017 finalist Kevin Anderson, Thiem has reached his first ever quarter-final on hard courts in a Grand Slam, and this is the 18th time Nadal has been in the last eight at Melbourne or New York.

The defending champion Nadal has dropped two sets so far, one each to Karen Khachanov and Nikoloz Basilashvili in the third and fourth rounds respectively, while Thiem has dropped three - two to Steve Johnson in round 2 and one to Taylor Fritz in round 3.

 

[Im(moral) Winner]

Beat me to it. Was going to call it US Garros
RF-18 says Thiem so let's go with that

 

[RF-18]

Thiem in 5. He is doing this.

 

[Aussie Darcy]

Wouldn't shock me if Thiem won. Nadal took way too long to get it done vs Basilashvili today..

 

[RF-18]

Wouldn't shock me if Thiem won. Nadal took way too long to get it done vs Basilashvili today..

It is not off the charts. Thiem has the game to take down peak rafa even. So doesnt matter. He has a good chance.

 

[helterskelter]

Nadal didn't even play very well in the day session. If this is a night session match, it could be tough. In the day, he might be able to attack Thiem's single-handed backhand too easily to make it close.

 

[underground]

Rafa will either go down here, or he'll be so gassed after getting through Thiem and Delpo, Fed/Novak will tear him apart in the final.

 

[weakera]

Kach and Basil were good prep for Rafa for this matchup, both were crushing the ball as hard as they could.

Bull in another 4.

 

[weakera]

Rafa will either go down here, or he'll be so gassed after getting through Thiem and Delpo, Fed/Novak will tear him apart in the final.

Right, Fed or Novak

 

[Dilexson]

Rafa in 4 sets.

 

[Sysyphus]

Does undeniably have the smell of a Thiem in 5 situation.

 

[tennis_pro]

If Nadal doesn't improve this is going 5.

 

[Deleted member 756486]

Nadal in 5.

Thiem will come close but Rafa too much of a fighter and warrior, no?

 

[ForumMember]

Meles in 3

 

[Sysyphus]

This is not some jinx poast against thiem.
Ive been saying since Rogers Cup nadal has flattered to deceive and later i think thiem will tear him apart.
Thiem does everything bigger here now in the North American hard court summer and with nadals cumbersome movement i can see him getting creamed in straight sets.

@Meles

 

[RF-18]

Anyone who doesn't expect a tight match is pretty off. Nadal has not shown anytjing that shows he will routine thiem. This is not clay.

 

[Deleted member 756486]

Anyone who doesn't expect a tight match is pretty off. Nadal has not shown anytjing that shows he will routine thiem. This is not clay.

I don’t expect Thiem to win.

Djokovic will probably the one who ends up beating Rafa.

 

[Sysyphus]

Anyone who doesn't expect a tight match is pretty off. Nadal has not shown anytjing that shows he will routine thiem. This is not clay.

Never did I think I would see the day when someone upgrades Thiem's chances based on the fact that "this is not clay."

 

[weakera]

Anyone who doesn't expect a tight match is pretty off. Nadal has not shown anytjing that shows he will routine thiem. This is not clay.

Thiem has a much bigger drop in win percentage than Rafa does when moving from clay to HC

 

[marc45]

1. Kamakshi Tandon‏ @Kamakshi_Tandon 2h2 hours ago
2. Talked to Thiem on standing so far back on the return, and he acknowledged he's copying Nadal.

 

[Gazelle]

Thiem has a much bigger drop in win percentage than Rafa does when moving from clay to HC

Be careful with generalisations. Yes you're right, but match-ups matter too. Thiem struggles on hardcourt a lot mainly against big servers and agressive baseliners. Nadal's game will suit Thiem reasonably well on these courts. It will be like a slightly faster clay court match, with Thiem's serves and aggressive groundstrokes having a bit more effect than at RG. Thiem could hurt Rafa on these courts, though I'm not convinced he will win.

 

[RF-18]

Thiem has a much bigger drop in win percentage than Rafa does when moving from clay to HC

I don't think the match up will do him bad here on HC

 

[weakera]

Be careful with generalisations. Yes you're right, but match-ups matter too. Thiem struggles on hardcourt a lot mainly against big servers and agressive baseliners. Nadal's game will suit Thiem reasonably well on these courts. It will be like a slightly faster clay court match, with Thiem's serves and aggressive groundstrokes having a bit more effect than at RG. Thiem could hurt Rafa on these courts, though I'm not convinced he will win.

LOL. Thiem lost to Diego and Ferrer in addition to JMDP just last summer and Tsitsipas in Toronto in the summer swing.

Thiem is a good player and will compete just like he often does against Rafa on clay (even if not at Roland Garros). However the idea that Rafa needs clay armor more than Thiem is hilarious.

 

[Red Rick]

Paire in 4.

Bless you OP

 

[Ann]

Nadal in 4.

 

[Red Rick]

This is not some jinx poast against thiem.
Ive been saying since Rogers Cup nadal has flattered to deceive and later i think thiem will tear him apart.
Thiem does everything bigger here now in the North American hard court summer and with nadals cumbersome movement i can see him getting creamed in straight sets.

@Meles

Stop hacking Meles

 

[Sport]

Does undeniably have the smell of a Thiem in 5 situation.

 

[Chicharito]

After 1822 days, Nadal will play a top 20 player at the US Open.

 

[weakera]

After 1822 days, Nadal will play a top 20 player at the US Open.

Fed had a difficult time with his non-top 20 opponent in the QF last season lol as well as the non-top 20 opponent in the Wimbledon final.

 

[Vamos Rafa Nadal]

I love both players but Rafa is going to win in 3 sets imo. We'll see... Love them both!

 

[Deleted member 77403]

Nadal seriously needs to pick his game up, the last couple of matches have been struggles. And with heavy hitting coming in the form of Thiem and then most likely Del Potro, he is going to be taking an awful lot of punches into the final.

 

[marc45]

Metro:

"Dominic Thiem believes the ‘key’ to beating Rafael Nadal is playing with pace and power, although he accepts it’s a risky strategy. The Austrian will meet the world No. 1 for the first time away from a clay court – their 11th contest overall – having last met in the French Open final earlier this year. Thiem has enjoyed success against the 32-year-old in the past, picking up three wins against the Spaniard on his favoured surface, and he’s in a confident mood having arrived at a quarter-final of a major for the first time outside of Paris. The world No. 9 was asked to reflect on his past successes over Nadal after his sterling victory against Kevin Anderson on Sunday, and he outlined his plans for beating the world No. 1. ‘I think that I have very powerful ground strokes, and I can even hurt him with them,’ he said.

‘But the key is to play really fast and powerful. But on the same time, not make too many mistakes. ‘Yeah, I did it sometimes against him, but it’s a risky game style also, because it can happen that I make too many mistakes and then it looks black. ‘To compete with him well, I always have to have a great day, and I have to play well. But I did today, so I just keep up my habits. ‘I will practice tomorrow. Of course, I will practice some things which might be useful on Tuesday, but everything else I won’t change that much.’

While Thiem believes he can cause the top seed real problems, he rejected the notion that his game is ideal to down the world No. 1. ‘Well, I think nobody’s game really matches up well with his,’ he added. ‘That’s why he’s so unbelievably successful. ‘No matter what, it’s always really tough to play against him. As I said, I’m really looking forward to see how it is on a different surface than clay.’


Read more: https://metro.co.uk/2018/09/02/domi...al-us-open-quarter-final-7906941/?ito=cbshare

 

[Rafa the King]

2 days off now so not too worried about Rafa's physical condition. A new tournament starts now. Could very well be that a much better Rafa shows up from this stage onwards just like last year. Think there is a good chance he raps this one up in 3. Predicting a 4 hour 4 setter in favour of Rafa though.

 

[NBP]

Thiem 6-4 3-6 6-7 6-4 6-3

 

[Sport]

Nadal seriously needs to pick his game up, the last couple of matches have been struggles. And with heavy hitting coming in the form of Thiem and then most likely Del Potro, he is going to be taking an awful lot of punches into the final.

Nadal already faced two heavy hitters in Khachanov and the Georgian. The Georgian plays very similar to Thiem, both try to hit as hard as possible.

I am more concerned about Del Potro. Del Potro will be a hell of rival for the SF. Even Raonic will be worse than Thiem IMO.

 

[Meles]

Nadal didn't even play very well in the day session. If this is a night session match, it could be tough. In the day, he might be able to attack Thiem's single-handed backhand too easily to make it close.

So if Coric beats Delpo this match will definitely be night session, no? If Isner beats Raonic they probably put him in night session with Delpo. Raonic v Delpo probably dumped to day session for sure.

 

[Meles]

Need some Thiem stats discussion for this match thread so transplating this....

Best he's ever played IMO.

It's his smartest match and it appears @Gary Duane 's and my Thioptimism was not unfounded from early hard courts where Thiem through IW and the ankle break in the Cuevas match was:
78.6% first serve points won and hold% of 87.1% with a very nice 67.7% of points won on serve. Thiem was 65.8% on serve points in 2015, 66.0% in 2016, but dipped to 64.5% in 2017 with his 2nd serve malady and all the failures to hold.

The early numbers on serve boded well for the year and clay which was nearly derailed by the time off for the ankle fracture. A very fresh Thiem is building form at US Open and exceptionally dangerous given his servebot solution unveiled for Anderson (returning from back wall on big show court.

Thiem won 82% of serve points against Basic, 73% against Johnson over 5 sets, 64% against Fritz over 4, and 78% against Anderson. Thiem won 37% of receiving points against Anderson which is really solid. 38% versus Fritz. 34% against Johnson. 46% against Basic. Thiem is up to 54.1% points won for the tournament versus 52.8% on hard in first half of 2018, 50.8% in 2017, 51.0% in 2016, and 49.7% in 2015.

Thiem at 54.1% for the entire US Open would be good enough for a marginal slam winner. Nadal last year was 57.3%. Sampras 2002 was 54.4%. Kafelnikov 1999 Auz Open 53.3% for the event:

 

[Meles]

1. Kamakshi Tandon‏ @Kamakshi_Tandon 2h2 hours ago
2. Talked to Thiem on standing so far back on the return, and he acknowledged he's copying Nadal.

In interview today he actually said it was Kohlschreiber's demolition of Zedrot that inspired him for this match on the same court.

 

[Meles]

2 days off now so not too worried about Rafa's physical condition. A new tournament starts now. Could very well be that a much better Rafa shows up from this stage onwards just like last year. Think there is a good chance he raps this one up in 3. Predicting a 4 hour 4 setter in favour of Rafa though.

One day off.

 

[tennis_pro]

Fed had a difficult time with his non-top 20 opponent in the QF last season lol as well as the non-top 20 opponent in the Wimbledon final.

Yes injuries tend to happen more often when you're 36/37 years old. Nadal will get there. Question is - will you still be around to receive the avalanche that's coming.

 

[TennisFan3]

Nadal seriously needs to pick his game up, the last couple of matches have been struggles. And with heavy hitting coming in the form of Thiem and then most likely Del Potro, he is going to be taking an awful lot of punches into the final.

Nadal is playing crap basically. I've been saying for a while that he is even playing much worse than last year. It is enough for RG . But he won't win a slam outside clay playing like this.

Perhaps it would be prudent to lose before the final, otherwise it could be a mailing against Djokovic. He doesn't deserve to be #1 with his current game, and shortly the results will catch up with him.

 

[tennis_pro]

2 days off now so not too worried about Rafa's physical condition. A new tournament starts now. Could very well be that a much better Rafa shows up from this stage onwards just like last year. Think there is a good chance he raps this one up in 3. Predicting a 4 hour 4 setter in favour of Rafa though.

One day off.

What about now? Still got some positives about the situation?

 

[tennis_pro]

Odds are out

1,25 on Nadal
4,00 on Thiem

 

[TennisFan3]

I don’t expect Thiem to win.

Djokovic will probably the one who ends up beating Rafa.

I honestly feel that Nadal won't get through Delpo. And he might as well lose against Thiem the way the Spaniard is playing.

 

[weakera]

Yes injuries tend to happen more often when you're 36/37 years old. Nadal will get there. Question is - will you still be around to receive the avalanche that's coming.

What injury befell Roger at Wimbledon?

 

[Deleted member 77403]

Nadal is playing crap basically. I've been saying for a while that he is even playing much worse than last year. It is enough for RG . But he won't win a slam outside clay playing like this.

Perhaps it would be prudent to lose before the final, otherwise it could be a mailing against Djokovic. He doesn't deserve to be #1 with his current game, and shortly the results will catch up with him.

That is just absurd. Why would he do something like that? If you were his coach would you say, Hey Rafa we better high tail it outta here before Djokovic kicks your butt...

He is vulnerable, but he is not playing like crap. He needs to bring his level up if he wants to win the title, otherwise even Thiem will make him work hard for it.

 

[Sport]

Today's Nadal's rival already has beaten Thiem in straight sets:

 

[Meles]

This match could be incredible. Thiem's form is building and he won't take a step backward for this match. Nadal of course will be very up for this match and wishful thinking to believe otherwise.

Thiem is going to have to return Nadal really well in this match to have a chance. Somehow I suspect Nadal bests Anderson handily when it comes to returning the Thiem first.

The main issue for Thiem with Nadal on clay is the bounce height. I've not seen a lot of that from Rafa at this US Open so this should be a great match with a lot of balls more in Thiem's strike zone as opposed to ultra high bouncers forcing him to hit the ball back with heavy spin.

Nadal was broken twice in a little over a set vs Ferrer, once against Pospisil, 5 times against Khach, and now twice against Basha. This gives Thiem a chance as he's a bit better returner than any of these players currently.

I've gotta feeling that Nadal is going to be ultra aggressive versus Thiem and will handle him. Nadal in 4.

 

[Deleted member 77403]

This match could be incredible. Thiem's form is building and he won't take a step backward for this match. Nadal of course will be very up for this match and wishful thinking to think otherwise.

Thiem is going to have to return Nadal really well in this match to have a chance. Somehow I suspect Nadal bests Anderson handily when it comes to returning the Thiem first.

The main issue for Thiem with Nadal on clay is the bounce height. I've not seen a lot of that from Rafa at this US Open so this should be a great match with a lot of balls more in Thiem's strike zone as opposed to ultra high bouncers forcing him to hit the ball back with heavy spin.

Nadal was broken twice in a little over a set vs Ferrer, once against Pospisil, 5 times against Khach, and now twice against Basha. This gives Thiem a chance as he's a bit better returner than any of these players currently.

I've gotta feeling that Nadal is going to be ultra aggressive versus Thiem and will handle him. Nadal in 4.

Nadal is certainly struggling with holding serve...that is not good news for a potential Djokovic final.

 

[Meles]

Odds are out

1,25 on Nadal
4,00 on Thiem

Reasonable.