2018 US Open Quarter-final - Rafael Nadal (1) vs Dominic Thiem (9)

Who wins?

  • Nadal in 3

    Votes: 20 21.3%
  • Nadal in 4

    Votes: 30 31.9%
  • Nadal in 5

    Votes: 7 7.4%
  • Thiem in 3

    Votes: 8 8.5%
  • Thiem in 4

    Votes: 16 17.0%
  • Thiem in 5

    Votes: 12 12.8%
  • Paire in 4

    Votes: 5 5.3%
  • Thiem's first serve stats

    Votes: 7 7.4%
  • Basilashvili

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • MichaelNadal

    Votes: 1 1.1%

  • Total voters
    94
  • Poll closed .

abmk

Bionic Poster
Not being sarcastic when I say hopefully this doesn't have the opposite expected impact like it did when Dimitrov almost beat Nadal at AO 2017 and has never been the same since.

But Thiem always has RG to fall back on whereas Dimitrov doesn't have that surface luxury.

dimitrov won Cincy and WTF after that in 2017.

his dip started since the loss to Edmund at the AO this year.
 

zep

Hall of Fame
One thing always amazes me about Nadal is how clutch he can be without getting free points off of his serve. It's easy to be clutch when you have a serve like Sampras or Federer, or dare I say even Djokovic. Djokovic improved his serve immensely since 2015, before that it was only slightly better than Nadal's. Now he's an excellent spot server. But against Djokovic Nadal's serve does become a liability on big points, one of the reasons why Djokovic is so tough for Nadal.
 

Federer and Del Potro

Bionic Poster
dimitrov won Cincy and WTF after that in 2017.

his dip started since the loss to Edmund at the AO this year.

Good wins for sure. Expected much more in AO 2018 given his momentum from 17 though.

Honestly regardless of a win/loss tonight I don't see Thiem ever winning a major unless it's RG
 

Meles

Bionic Poster
And who is to say Nadal wouldn't have forced a fifth set if he had gone down 2-1???

Not picking on you but the amount of negativity in this thread towards a guy who laid it all out there is absurd. They both had chances to win and that made this a classic. One moves on...that is the nature of the sport.
I see I've got work to do.:confused: Kudos on your comments. If one wants to be negative about Thiem it would be for those flashbacks to 2017 hard where he continually screwed up serving out matches due to imploding on the play off his 2nd serve. He leaked just enough oil today at end of sets for Nadal to edge him out. Thiem kept his 2nd serve points won surprisingly high today with only a dip to 47% in the 4th set. With the 6-0 first set Thiem won 6 more points than Nadal for the match (Nadal only won 7 points in the first set.:oops:)
 
The feeling of not winning when you should win, is the worst in tennis.

Thiem was the better player, and even Rafa knows it.

broke Rafa 7 times,
won more games,
won more points,
served and returned better,
converted BPs better,
defended BPs better,
had a better W/ UE ratio . . . he was better at everything. But he can't keep his mind together when it matters the most, and beats himself

I am sad on his behalf today. Big big props for the effort, but I think this will be a jagged pill to swallow

The better player wins the most important points, not the most points. It’s like in chess: you might have a queen and a rook over your opponent and have decimated their pawn structure, but none of that matters if you get checkmated.
 
D

Deleted member 716271

Guest
Thanks ... I think I read that piece a few years ago, maybe it was even posted here somewhere. That's where I got that idea that Fed was the best/worst and Isner was the flip side. But I couldn't remember where Nadal and Djokovic fell.

Plus, there must be a ton more matches by now with Federer winning more points but somehow pulling out a defeat from the jaws of victory!

What I was also going to say was that I agree with you Fed needs to be more "**** roach" like. I think Nadal is just stronger in that regard overall on average. His playstyle probably makes it easier on him mentally in tight moments. I usually get raked over the coals for it, but I do think Fed has a relative mental weakness on the crucial points compared to Nadal. Not alway and Rafa's had some tought tight losses over the last few years to Djokovic, Federer himself at AO 17. and even some mugs along the way :) But he's definitely stronger overall if the players are playing at a close to equal level and the going gets tough, Rafa gives you the feeling you can rely on him more.

The implication of not playing crucial points as well means you can win more points overall but lose the ones that matter in the tennis scoring system. And obviously in reverse --- if you play the important points well obviously you can win less points but win the match.

In this sense, I feel the piece lets Federer off the hook. The 2 reasons it posits are all possible parts of the puzzle but only positives, I think the lack of mental "cockroachery" at crucial times relatively speaking plays a larger role in this stat.

Confoundingly though, Federer IS very good in tiebreaks.
 

junior74

Talk Tennis Guru
it will, at first, but then again he can be much more proud of himself tonight than the effort in the final at RG which caused him to slump until this week

I think you are wrong. I would have no problem after RG if I was Thiem. Nadal was unplayable there. But today, I would remember all the points that I missed that would have won me the match... those are the points that stick - not flashy winners at the wrong time.

But I guess they have clever psychologists that can convince them to focus better than us mere mortals :)
 

Federer and Del Potro

Bionic Poster
Says the Del Potro fan. LMAO! Thiem did your guy the biggest favor in the world tonight. He may not beat Nadal and your perverse wish might come true but right now he's in La-La-Lloyd land:


Delpo would still have to beat a Djokovic/Cilic on the other side. And Thiem probably should have beaten him here last yr so that match is pretty 50/50 as well had he won.

Even if Delpo gets by Nadal, he's not the favorite.

I don't really base my rooting interests off of Del Potro. I don't have the belief he can win 7 Bo5's in one tournament. And that belief is well founded behind a lot of evidence.

And unlike the vast majority of Fed fans on here I don't root for "lesser" players to make my favorites path easier. Beat the best to be the best.
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
Nadal is showing normal signs in 5 setters. As he has aged his 5 set record has dropped. Federer on the other hand improved it by a huge margin since the "knee surgery", wonder which one is more suspicious!
Oh I'm sorry, is Federer looking fresh as a daisy after playing 4h and 5h matches?

Please, you're not doing yourself any favors by bringing this up.

And no, I don't believe Nadal is doping or anything like that. He is just blessed with good physical traits. I prefer to leave it at that.
 
D

Deleted member 756486

Guest
I guess you would know better than me who I like and don't like.

Want to go to my job for me tomorrow too then?

You can just assume my identity.
Chill dude. I’m just bantering you. :D

I know that you’re a Delpo fan and frustrated by his losses to Nadal over the years.
 

junior74

Talk Tennis Guru
The better player wins the most important points, not the most points. It’s like in chess: you might have a queen and a rook over your opponent and have decimated their pawn structure, but none of that matters if you get checkmated.

Yes, that was my point: Thiem was better at everything, exept winning the important points. That's why I think this defeat will be hard to handle. He knows he had more chances than Rafa, but couldn't stay composed.
 

zep

Hall of Fame
Oh I'm sorry, is Federer looking fresh as a daisy after playing 4h and 5h matches?

Please, you're not doing yourself any favors by bringing this up.

And no, I don't believe Nadal is doping or anything like that. He is just blessed with good physical traits. I prefer to leave it at that.

Did Nadal look fresh as a daisy? lol

He looked tired from set 4 onward. He's probably happier than Thiem that there was a 5th set TB.
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
Go and count how many 5 setters Federer played at 36 to win AO2017. Come back and report the number.
No problem.

4th round against Nishikori - 3h 24m
Super easy and short match against Zverev that took 1h 20m
SF against Wawrinka - 3h 5m
2 days off
F against Nadal 3h 38m

Now let's see Nadal so far at the US Open:
3rd round - 4h 25 m against Khachanov
4th round 3h 23m against Basilashvili
QF - 4h 54m against Thiem

I'm predicting a 4h 20m match against Del Potro and a 5h final against Djokovic btw.
 

Federer and Del Potro

Bionic Poster
Chill dude. I’m just bantering you. :D

I know that you’re a delpo fan and frustrated by his losses.

Is my lack of belief in Del Potro versus Nadal unwarranted?

He whooped him here last yr.

He made him not even want to compete at RG.

He ripped his heart out at Wimbledon.

I don't think Del Potro has the fitness to win 7 Bo5 matches anymore.

Why aren't you calling Fed fans fake for the 90 percent of them conceding defeat to Djokovic all the time?
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
Did Nadal look fresh as a daisy? lol

He looked tired from set 4 onward. He's probably happier than Thiem that there was a 5th set TB.
Yes, Nadal doesn't get tired at all. After watching him at Wimb this year, I am convinced that Nadal just doesn't get tired regardless of how many hours he plays.

He'll look fresh against Delpo like the 4.5h match against Khachanov and the 5h match against Thiem never happened.
 
D

Deleted member 756486

Guest
Is my lack of belief in Del Potro versus Nadal unwarranted?

He whooped him here last yr.

He made him not even want to compete at RG.

He ripped his heart out at Wimbledon.

I don't think Del Potro has the fitness to win 7 Bo5 matches anymore.

Why aren't you calling Fed fans fake for the 90 percent of them conceding defeat to Djokovic all the time?
I totally get it man. I don’t have faith in him either.
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
Have you forgotten how many long matches 35 yr old Fed played at AO17 just coming back from knee surgery? Is that freaking normal?
What the hell are you talking about?

Fed at 2017 AO:
4th round against Nishikori - 3h 24m
QF against Zverev - 1h 20m - almost like a W/O
SF against Wawrinka - 3h 5m
2 days off
F against Nadal 3h 38m
And he did look jaded.


Nadal at the 2018 USO:
3rd round - 4h 25 m against Khachanov
4th round 3h 23m against Basilashvili
QF - 4h 54m against Thiem

He'll play a 4 hour match against Del Potro and a 5 hour match against Djokovic and he'll be fine.
 

zep

Hall of Fame
Yrs, Nadal doesn't get tired at all. After watching him at Wimb this year, I am convinced that Nadal just doesn't get tired.

He'll look fresh against Delpo like the 4.5h match against Khachanov and the 5h match against Thiem never happened.

Then I have serious doubts over your intelligence.
 

jussumman

Hall of Fame
That was brutal loss.

Reminds me when Roddick lost in Wimby final, just gave it all, seemingly enough to win (better even) and falls just short.
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
What the hell are you talking about?

Fed at 2017 AO:
4th round against Nishikori - 3h 24m
QF against Zverev - 1h 20m - almost like a W/O
SF against Wawrinka - 3h 5m
2 days off
F against Nadal 3h 38m
And he did look jaded.


Nadal at the 2018 USO:
3rd round - 4h 25 m against Khachanov
4th round 3h 23m against Basilashvili
QF - 4h 54m against Thiem

He'll play a 4 hour match against Del Potro and a 5 hour match against Djokovic and he'll be fine.
Only a simpleton would compare these cases.

None of Fed's 5 setters even reached the 4h mark. Meanwhile Nadal's 4 setters alone match or exceed Fed's 5 setters.
 

stringertom

Bionic Poster
I see I've got work to do.:confused: Kudos on your comments. If one wants to be negative about Thiem it would be for those flashbacks to 2017 hard where he continually screwed up serving out matches due to imploding on the play off his 2nd serve. He leaked just enough oil today at end of sets for Nadal to edge him out. Thiem kept his 2nd serve points won surprisingly high today with only a dip to 47% in the 4th set. With the 6-0 first set Thiem won 6 more points than Nadal for the match (Nadal only won 7 points in the first set.:oops:)
This was certainly better than Miami'16 vs Joe Kovic when he invented the term Thiemerer on all those failed BPs. Straight set win but Joe Kovic had to play 102 points on his serve to 59 for Thiem.
 

Federer and Del Potro

Bionic Poster
Says the Del Potro fan. LMAO! Thiem did your guy the biggest favor in the world tonight. He may not beat Nadal and your perverse wish might come true but right now he's in La-La-Lloyd land:


I never said or implied I "wished" he would lose to Nadal.

Just don't have belief he can do it.

Just like Fed fans for yrs had the same belief about Nadal, myself included. Or Djokovic now.

It's not any different.

I hope I'm wrong and Delpo wins...

Smart money is, and should be on Nadal. And 80 + percent of this forum will pick him to win. Makes no sense to single my lack of belief out. Being a fan of his doesn't automatically mean I'll go against the prohibitive favorite.

Nor would he have been as big a favorite vs Thiem as some of you seem to imply. Either SF would have been very difficult for him. This one moreso because of the mental dominance Rafa has over him.

Even lesser of a favorite vs probable finalist Djokovic.

This match dictated Del Potro's odds/ probabilities to win the entire thing, but not by a great margin.

@paranoidandroid here's more of my reasoning
 
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weakera

Talk Tennis Guru
he was half-way b/w service line and baseline.
if he wasn't sure he could make the smash directly, should have let it bounce.

Fail.

32112123123.jpg


He's a step from the baseline. Nice try.
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
Only a simpleton would compare these cases.

None of Fed's 5 setters even reached the 4h mark. Meanwhile Nadal's 4 setters alone match or exceed Fed's 5 setters.
Nadal's "easy" 4 set win against Basilashvili was as long as Fed's 5-set win against Nishikori LMAO what are we even talking about here.
 

The_Order

G.O.A.T.
What the hell are you talking about?

Fed at 2017 AO:
4th round against Nishikori - 3h 24m
QF against Zverev - 1h 20m - almost like a W/O
SF against Wawrinka - 3h 5m
2 days off
F against Nadal 3h 38m
And he did look jaded.


Nadal at the 2018 USO:
3rd round - 4h 25 m against Khachanov
4th round 3h 23m against Basilashvili
QF - 4h 54m against Thiem

He'll play a 4 hour match against Del Potro and a 5 hour match against Djokovic and he'll be fine.

Look at Nadal's physical condition compared to Fed's. He's in much better shape.

Not to mention, Nadal is 32, Fed was about 35.5.

Don't know why you're so upset all the time, Fed has 20 freaking majors dude. Calm the **** down.

Chances are Delpo will beat Rafa anyway.
 

mike danny

Bionic Poster
Then I have serious doubts over your intelligence.
No need to insult my intelligence, "fair Nadal fan".

You bringinp up Fed's 5 setters shows your intelligence better :D

And I obviously said what I said in a hyperbolic way. Don't tell me the mighty intelligent you took it literally :D
 
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