Yup, that is my understanding, that any matches after 10/28 won't factor into 2018 year end ratings. I have a buddy that didn't do as well as he'd hoped at Nationals, so his TR estimated rating dropped down to the 3.35 range. He crushed it in his last two TriLevel men's matches, so his TR rating might be in the 3.62 range at the next update, but to no avail. He was crushed to learn that the last two matches won't count, ha. (He is one of the rare men who WANT to get bumped up)
2018 YE Ratings Hype Thread
- Thread starter BeyondTheTape
- Start date
time_fly
Hall of Fame
If someone's level is jumping around by 0.3, which more than half an NTRP level, based on the last couple matches then the algorithm is way too unstable. Hypothetically if they updated the leagues every month with an algorithm like that, half your roster could change each time which makes no sense.
Tennis Record is not the same as USTA NTRP. I would typically agree with you, but potentially he's only played a handful of matches? On the other hand I'm skeptical that losing at nationals would have a dramatic impact on your rating. Everything suggests you should be playing a pretty tight band of rated players.
Remind him that he can always play up even if he doesn't get bumped.
Agree, the TR algorithm is likely way off. But he went from 3.38 to 3.50 after a 1&0 win, and then had a second 1&0 win that hasn't been calculated on TR yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's at 3.62 next update.
Whether it's accurate or not is up for debate, but there were some surprisingly (suspiciously?) low rated players we faced at Nationals. So losing to them (even though they were better than us) really lowered our ratings on TR. Like he lost to a 2.96 guy...and the match wasn't that close.
He does play up already at 4.0 with decent results, but I'm guessing it's more of a status thing for him to get to 4.0 -- and he wants to play on the 4.5 team he captains.
time_fly
Hall of Fame
I filed my first official grievance last year against a self-rated 3.5 that was about 29 years old and had a winning record in Division II college tennis according to an old team webpage I found. He played only mixed doubles, and I think TR had him around 3.20 even though he would be a 4.5 on anyone's "eyeball test." Since he played 7.0 matches and the other teams still won some games, the TR algorithm concluded he was within range.
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I played a regular season 40+ match against a team from the eventual 4.0 National Champions. Didn't get blown out but lost the match. TR showed my rating went down since both of them had lower ratings than mine. Not surprising since they've been tanking for years at 18+. Another reason why tanking sucks because it doesn't just effect your own rating.
What is the appealable range?
I don't think they publish the actual range (and it varies by the number of matches you've played and possibly by rating level), but it definitely is not 0.08 in any circumstance.
CHtennis
Rookie
I have been told that most of the time it is .03 above level if you did not play in the playoffs.
Jim A
Professional
Awful match on 10/29 that would have likely upped me down avoided. Breathe a little easier
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BeyondTheTape
Rookie
schmke
Hall of Fame
Week of 26th, but latter part of it would be my guess.
J011yroger
Talk Tennis Guru
When teams don't play their highest rated players in the playoffs and win anyway suspicious Jolly gets suspicious.
J
Justagamefool
New User
10/28 was indeed the cutoff for any matches counting toward 2018 year end ratings.
Tennisleaguestats is as reliable and credible as a Florida vote count. They are the fake news of NTRP projections.
New ratings will be released on or after December 1.
Tennisleaguestats is as reliable and credible as a Florida vote count. They are the fake news of NTRP projections.
New ratings will be released on or after December 1.
Matthew ATX
Semi-Pro
When does TR post a number in the projected year end rating slot?
Matthew ATX
Semi-Pro
Does TLS not keep ongoing stats for the current season? I can't find myself on there at all. Seems like it only has last season and prior stuff.
Justagamefool
New User
Best I can tell, they only look at a single year and then only post a player with a rating if he or she has played three "Adult" league matches. They don't count in Tri-Level (probably because it depends on the local area/section if the results even count.)
I'm not saying they're never right. Usually if they predict someone going up by .20 or more into the next level, they nail it, but that is common sense. Otherwise, they should carry a disclaimer similar to horoscopes. "Ratings are for entertainment purposes only."
I'm not saying they're never right. Usually if they predict someone going up by .20 or more into the next level, they nail it, but that is common sense. Otherwise, they should carry a disclaimer similar to horoscopes. "Ratings are for entertainment purposes only."
BeyondTheTape
Rookie
Welp...no Countdown timer.
J011yroger
Talk Tennis Guru
J011yroger
Talk Tennis Guru
OnTheLine
Hall of Fame
You, probably willing to take you ... can you wear a skirt, change your name, move across the country and re-rate yourself as a 3.5?
But I am changing my requirements this year and intend to completley re-shuffle my 40+ team:
a. will you attend at least 50% of our practices ... if not, are you hitting at least 2 other times per week outside of a match? If answer is no to both ... not interested
b. Are you capable of responding to texts/emails/phone calls ... promptly. If not go find someone else to torture.
c. Do you arrive to all matches at least 15 minutes early and ready to play? if not, again, go find someone else to torture
d. Do you play with an attempt to be competitive out there or are you just there for the giggles. I don't care if you lose as long as you try, but if only there for the giggles .... there are other teams for you.
BeyondTheTape
Rookie
Id like to submit my name. Can you please provide extra credit opportunities if such player does not meet but 1 - 2 of your requirements. Or possibly do you round up? Is meeting 3 out of 4 requirements "passing?"
2 is close to 3. Just asking for a friend.
Nostradamus
Bionic Poster
How does USTA calculate exactly who gets bumped up or down ? They claim their system is totally different than those other system that is published, UTR or whatever. but they won't say what system they really use and it is their own only
BeyondTheTape
Rookie
You have asked the same questions for your entire TTW message board career. I cant help you with understanding at this point.
J011yroger
Talk Tennis Guru
OnTheLine
Hall of Fame
Extra credit for consistently hitting TS groundie behind the service line.
This is ladies' 3.5 ... more extra credit if your 2nd serve is anything other than a dink.
If you can't get extra points for either of these, I will offer additional extra credit if you can rally with me for over 30 shots.
The only one that is an entire deal breaker is #3. If you are not on time for matches you're out!
Matthew ATX
Semi-Pro
Solid list. 2/3 of the local league team I captain fail at A-C. C. really irritates the **** out of me. A. may be a little much to expect out of my league, but it's annoying when they lose, come off the court like "I could've beat that guy but I'm just rusty." Oh you're rusty? No ****. You play twice a month.
OnTheLine
Hall of Fame
Yes, C. kills me. B just really irritates me.
A and kinda D .... I really don't care if you are the worst player in the league ... as long as you put forth the effort to improve / play well ... If you put forth that effort I will keep you around no problem
Matthew ATX
Semi-Pro
How does TR get its data from USTA? Seems to take a week or two after matches post on TennisLink for them to show up on TR.
Matthew ATX
Semi-Pro
And then a few more days for it to actually calculate that match into your rating... that's even stranger to me. I'd think it be like a spreadsheet where when you enter in a number, it automatically/instantly recalculates the totals.
I'm just picturing some guy sitting in a basement somewhere with a piece of paper and a calculator doing each person's info by hand, haha.
Don't get me wrong, it's a great website. I wish Tennislink were as navigable. I'm just severely impatient.
I'm just picturing some guy sitting in a basement somewhere with a piece of paper and a calculator doing each person's info by hand, haha.
Don't get me wrong, it's a great website. I wish Tennislink were as navigable. I'm just severely impatient.
Unless of course the person clearly slipped through the cracks and should have been bumped to 4.0. Then I'd be willing to overlook a couple of these.
Admittedly, I don't have intimate details on how TR handles their processing, but I'll assume it's like any database of real size.
Excel can appear to do things instantly because the calculations are very simple and humans enter data at a glacial pace. When you're dealing with lots of data it's much more efficient to pull everything in first then run any analysis against the data. I wouldn't be surprised if they do some validation in between too. From a conceptual standpoint the idea of pulling a single match, running the current and recent matches to evaluate that, and then proceeding to the next single match is... not optimal.
schmke
Hall of Fame
I don't know what TR does, but I regularly add matches and recalculate all my ratings to do reports for people in an hour or two. It isn't (or shouldn't be) that complicated.
True, I should clarify that I wasn't implying the days in between were necessarily required, only that it'd be abnormal to pull data and perform calculations at the same time.
If I was taking a total guess I would say they're likely using the same hardware to host the site as perform the processing, so they spread it out to minimize any impact.
0.14 counts as a big miss? Check out Tinsley Dozier, a self-rated 4.0 whose tennisrecord dynamic is 4.6, even though he played eight matches and didn't get dq'ed from 4.0. And actually tennisrecord recently adjusted his rating downward, a couple weeks ago it said he played 6.0-caliber tennis in his second match, which now has been lowered to a more believable(?) 5.5. If tennisrecord were even remotely close to correct, he would have been dq'ed long ago.
0.14 is actually a pretty big miss, LOL. There are even more extreme cases, though. Paul Caruso in 2016 is another. He played 11 4.0 men's matches as a 4.0S and all 11 are calculated as strikes on TR (and not even close - 4.38 minimum). He was not DQ'd.
I'm sticking with Tinsley Dozier as my current favorite illustration of tennisrecord craziness. Paul Caruso's highest tennisrecord dynamic in 2016 doesn't even crack Tinsley's top 7 tennisrecord dynamics of 2018. And Tinsley's top marks are awesome -- his highest tennisrecord dynamics are 5.23, 5.19, 5.00, 4.92, 4.75. So tennisrecord must have been off by more than 0.80(!!!!) in at least one of Tinsley's dynamics, since Tinsley didn't get dq'ed from 4.0, despite being a 4.0S.
BeyondTheTape
Rookie
Link from Blog post (Prediction on Ratings Release Date).
J011yroger
Talk Tennis Guru
Here are the release dates for the last 5 days according to schmke.
- 2017 - Thursday 11/30
- 2016 - Wednesday 11/30
- 2015 - Monday November 30
- 2014 - Monday December 1
- 2013 - Monday December 2
J011yroger
Talk Tennis Guru
schmke
Hall of Fame
Note that those Monday dates were all in the morning I think, the others were late afternoon or 9pm'ish PST, so midnight the next day EST. My guess is that since the Monday would be 12/3, they don't wait for that, and they aren't going to do it on a weekend, and just to make sure they don't do it on a Friday with no buffer or people around to deal with issues as they leave for the weekend, they do it on Thursday the 29th.
Nostradamus
Bionic Poster
Have you seen some players that move to another city and self rate themselves to whatever they want and play as fresh new player in USTA ? I suspect this has been happening in some instances. I had some high suspicions of these players in the past but I am such a nice guy that I didn't make noise about it.
schmke
Hall of Fame
Sure, there are a few players that re-self-rate, deliberately or by mistake or misunderstanding. And I've seen cases where when it is discovered the memberships are merged. But sometimes it isn't discovered or reported.
Nostradamus
Bionic Poster
Memberships can be merged ?????? Hummm had no idea...... anyway, these guys were ridiculous. These guys were living in another city and played USTA for years and moved and they made a brand new membership under another account and self rated and start playing at what ever division they felt like.....LOL. There should be better security checks, I think.. What about the Iris scan ? I heard that can't be fooled
OnTheLine
Hall of Fame
Unfortunately, yes. And dude ended up MY mixed partner for half of the awful fall season. He had been a 3.5 in another city under Juan Martinez ... moved here and self-rated as a 4.0 under John Martin (yes altering actual name to protect the infamous) ... dude was *maybe* a low 3.5 ... his 4.0 record for 2018 indicates he will be back to 3.5 (or lower) in no time. Wonder what name he will use to get his vanity 4.0 next year ....