2018 YE Ratings Hype Thread

Jim A

Professional
For all those appealing back down .... why? Will you enjoy trying to avoid a dynamic DQ for an entire year?
At say 3.5 you have to be at a dynamic of about 3.7 to strike out. Pretty tough to get there if you are say 3.55. Your first 3 matches have to be stellar to raise it quickly and likely with someone who is waaay better than their rating and impacts you negatively

Since I changed sections later this year I’ve thought about it since I can play both levels here at the same time (local league rules prevented that prior) and I could get on some other teams for mixed etc. Easier to meet people as a better 3.5 than lower 4.0 since leagues start in just over a month and 2019 is halfway over for usta.


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Matthew ATX

Semi-Pro
For all those appealing back down .... why? Will you enjoy trying to avoid a dynamic DQ for an entire year?
This was my first USTA season. I really don't want to start all over finding new teams and new tournament partners after having just done all that within like the last six months.
I only got 4 league matches and 5 tournament matches in before the cutoff, all doubles (7-2). I'll be playing more singles tournaments and maybe some league singles. I'm not nearly as good at singles, so I think my rating will level out in the upper 4.0 range as I get more matches and a more representative sample of my play emerges. I really don't think it will go up, and definitely not into the DQ range. If, after a full year of play at 4.0, I get bumped back to 4.5, I will consider that fair and will go play 4.5.
 

ATX Tennis

New User
For all those appealing back down .... why? Will you enjoy trying to avoid a dynamic DQ for an entire year?
I'm playing on teams at both levels. I may get 2-3 matches at the higher level, but I'll be able to play whenever I am available at the lower level. If I strike out, so be it.
 

OnTheLine

Hall of Fame
At say 3.5 you have to be at a dynamic of about 3.7 to strike out. Pretty tough to get there if you are say 3.55. Your first 3 matches have to be stellar to raise it quickly and likely with someone who is waaay better than their rating and impacts you negatively

Since I changed sections later this year I’ve thought about it since I can play both levels here at the same time (local league rules prevented that prior) and I could get on some other teams for mixed etc. Easier to meet people as a better 3.5 than lower 4.0 since leagues start in just over a month and 2019 is halfway over for usta.


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In terms of the strike mark ... yes, if you are only playing at level that can be difficult to acheive, but as you may be also playing up, won't that be like playing Russian roullette? ...

This was my first USTA season. I really don't want to start all over finding new teams and new tournament partners after having just done all that within like the last six months.
I only got 4 league matches and 5 tournament matches in before the cutoff, all doubles (7-2). I'll be playing more singles tournaments and maybe some league singles. I'm not nearly as good at singles, so I think my rating will level out in the upper 4.0 range as I get more matches and a more representative sample of my play emerges. I really don't think it will go up, and definitely not into the DQ range. If, after a full year of play at 4.0, I get bumped back to 4.5, I will consider that fair and will go play 4.5.
On only 4 rated league matches .... your scenario makes a great deal of sense and your attitude about it sensible.
 

CHtennis

Rookie
I got bumped for a total of 7 players moved to 5.0 off of our team that won 4.5 nationals. Pretty much what I expected although I thought one other guy on our team was going to get bumped and other than this there was very little movement in my district, at least at the higher levels.
 

J011yroger

Talk Tennis Guru
I got bumped up to 5.0 too, but I don't think I should have been. If you start a 5.0 team let me know.
Are you A.J.?

I already committed to a metro team. I was thinking about starting an LI team but also gave my friend permission to punch me in the nuts every time I mention starting a team so I might just play the same LI 5.0 team as last year if they have one again.

J
 

Jim A

Professional
In terms of the strike mark ... yes, if you are only playing at level that can be difficult to acheive, but as you may be also playing up, won't that be like playing Russian roullette? ...



On only 4 rated league matches .... your scenario makes a great deal of sense and your attitude about it sensible.
Half the people I played against at 4.0 in the new section were 3.5’s.

I’m never getting past 4.0 but getting to midrange is a 2-3 year goal


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iNeverSlice

New User
Are you A.J.?

I already committed to a metro team. I was thinking about starting an LI team but also gave my friend permission to punch me in the nuts every time I mention starting a team so I might just play the same LI 5.0 team as last year if they have one again.

J
Not AJ. PG
 

schmke

Hall of Fame
Wow, 17 of 18 players on my team got the bump! I was expecting 11 of us to bump, not the entire damn team! Guess we can face the music play together and at our new level.
That's what happens when you win Nationals. And like @Ft.S said, you probably had an effect on Mid-Atlantic in general.
 

Matthew ATX

Semi-Pro
Good luck. Go out and dominate.
Haha, that's the other reason I felt comfortable appealing. I wasn't dominating. My three wins were competitive, as was the loss. I feel like this is the level I should be playing at. The algorithm isn't perfect, especially with as few data points as I had.
 

OnTheLine

Hall of Fame
The mad dash for getting rosters for 40+ in my area begins now. We have 2 weeks to be valid and the land of 3.5 women got mangled. Multiple captains and large portions of entire teams bumped up to 4.0, fewer 3.0s bumped to 3.5 and not a lot of movement down from 4.0 to 3.5. Could be interesting.

Might mean my little team won't be a bottom feeder anymore!
 

CiscoPC600

Professional
Christ, the guy who wins most tournaments in my area was kept at 4.0.. How tournaments are not included is beyond me. He's regularly beating the guys on my team that got bumped to 4.5. I guess if you really want to sandbag and build that trophy case, all you have to do is avoid playing league matches.
 
Haha, that's the other reason I felt comfortable appealing. I wasn't dominating. My three wins were competitive, as was the loss. I feel like this is the level I should be playing at. The algorithm isn't perfect, especially with as few data points as I had.
Eh, I think you're overrating 4.5. If you're beating top 4.0s in competitive matches, you can beat low 4.5s in tight contests too.
 

J011yroger

Talk Tennis Guru
Eh, I think you're overrating 4.5. If you're beating top 4.0s in competitive matches, you can beat low 4.5s in tight contests too.
There used to be a 25% or so overlap between the top of 4.0 and the bottom of 4.5 but 4.0s have been getting bumped up in bunches the past couple years.

J
 

MarinaHighTennis

Professional
I'll let him disclose where he is, but it is what I predicted.
are you pretty accurate on your predictions? Would you be able to tell me why I am still at 4.5? haha All the people I beat got bumped up to 5.0 and everyone else wasn't a challenge. The only people I lost to were the 4.5s who went undefeated the whole season and I lost in a third set by 1 break everytime... tbh im kinda feeling left out and now theres no one to play against
 

J011yroger

Talk Tennis Guru
are you pretty accurate on your predictions? Would you be able to tell me why I am still at 4.5? haha All the people I beat got bumped up to 5.0 and everyone else wasn't a challenge. The only people I lost to were the 4.5s who went undefeated the whole season and I lost in a third set by 1 break everytime... tbh im kinda feeling left out and now theres no one to play against
For a reasonable fee he can tell you anything you want.

J
 
This was my first USTA season. I really don't want to start all over finding new teams and new tournament partners after having just done all that within like the last six months.
I only got 4 league matches and 5 tournament matches in before the cutoff, all doubles (7-2). I'll be playing more singles tournaments and maybe some league singles. I'm not nearly as good at singles, so I think my rating will level out in the upper 4.0 range as I get more matches and a more representative sample of my play emerges. I really don't think it will go up, and definitely not into the DQ range. If, after a full year of play at 4.0, I get bumped back to 4.5, I will consider that fair and will go play 4.5.
What if you do somehow get DQ'd? Would you also consider that fair?
 

am1899

Hall of Fame
@schmke just a point of clarification - suppose a player just got bumped up at YE, say from 4.0 to 4.5. Suppose that player is on a team now, that eventually goes to nationals next spring. Does that player have to play as a 4.5 at nationals?
 

J_R_B

Hall of Fame
Stayed at 4.0. No surprise there. Only lost 3 players out of 25 on my team (we tied at sectionals but lost by 1 court on court count), which is really good. One was totally expected, one is not really a surprise, one is a little surprising, but I think there were a couple others close to the ledge that didn't get bumped, too. The team that won MS and placed 4th at nationals was decimated. Obviously, they have to split up anyway, but they lost a ton of people, including some who are not really 4.5s.
 

schmke

Hall of Fame
Christ, the guy who wins most tournaments in my area was kept at 4.0.. How tournaments are not included is beyond me. He's regularly beating the guys on my team that got bumped to 4.5. I guess if you really want to sandbag and build that trophy case, all you have to do is avoid playing league matches.
What section?
 

schmke

Hall of Fame
are you pretty accurate on your predictions? Would you be able to tell me why I am still at 4.5? haha All the people I beat got bumped up to 5.0 and everyone else wasn't a challenge. The only people I lost to were the 4.5s who went undefeated the whole season and I lost in a third set by 1 break everytime... tbh im kinda feeling left out and now theres no one to play against
I am generally quite accurate, but not perfect. There are a few that stump me and feed <insert your favorite> conspiracy theories. But yes, I usually can explain why what happened happened.
 

schmke

Hall of Fame
@schmke just a point of clarification - suppose a player just got bumped up at YE, say from 4.0 to 4.5. Suppose that player is on a team now, that eventually goes to nationals next spring. Does that player have to play as a 4.5 at nationals?
Yep. The National rule is that bumped up players are ineligible at their lower/rostered level on an ESL team. Some sections follow suit immediately and the players are ineligible staring 1/1/2019, others let the players continue on even through Sectionals at the lower level.
 

schmke

Hall of Fame
First (of many) posts up analyzing year-end ratings. Overall 9.1% bumped up, 4.7% down. Post has a chart showing up/down rates by section.
 
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