2019 ATP Final RR: [2] Novak Djokovic vs [3] Roger Federer

Who will reach semi final?


  • Total voters
    102
  • Poll closed .

Pheasant

Hall of Fame
I give Federer a 5% chance of beating Djoker today. If Federer shows up in good form, he has a slight chance.

Let's take a look at Federer vs Djoker since 2018:

2019 WI: Federer should have won this match. Federer broke Djoker 7 times, and Djoker broke Fed only 3 times. Federer scored 14 more points than Djoker. I've never heard of somebody out-breaking somebody 7-3, yet still losing. But that's what going 0-3 in tiebreakers will do. Quite honestly, I'm far more upset about Fed going 0-3 in tiebreakers than the blown 40-15. Federer was extremely competitive here. But he failed in the clutch department multiple times. And FYI, my takeaway here is 0-3 in tiebreakers, not 40-15.

2018 Paris SF: Federer wasn't broken the entire match while he broke Djoker once. However, Federer lost both tiebreakers here. Federer was definitely in this match as well. Federer played really well. But he still couldn't out-clutch Djoker when it counted. Fed was 0-2 in tiebreakers in this match.

2018 Cincy: A horrendous version of Federer showed up here. An extemely rusty Stan should have won against Fed. He choked. An injured Goffin pushed Fed to a tiebreak, then retired in the 2nd set at 1-1. Thankfully, Djoker didn't play all that great in a 6-4, 6-4 win. Federer was absolutely horrendous this whole tourney. This version of Federer could show up today. If he does, then expect breadsticks.

Fed's loss of speed this year is accelerating. Federer looks extremely slow on the court. I really noticed that watching him play Thiem. And Fed no longer has a cannon forehand to slug the younger players off of the court, which is why we see Federer losing more than he wins against guys like Zverev and Thiem.

Federer will need to serve like a boss while being extremely clutch against Djoker to have a chance.
 
Thiem loses in 2 against Berrettini. His game W/L ratio drops to 51.9%.
Almost for sure the winner of Djokovic-Federer match grabs 1st place in group B.

The only way for Thiem to recover 1st place is Fed's win in tight three sets.
 

luiz_gustavo

Hall of Fame
Thiem loses in 2 against Berrettini. His game W/L ratio drops to 51.9%.
Almost for sure the winner of Djokovic-Federer match grabs 1st place in group B.

The only way for Thiem to recover 1st place is Fed's win in tight three sets.
No, in case of a two men draw, what counts the most is the match they played and in this case Thiem got the best of both Federer and Djokovic. He has already won the group since his win against Djokovic.
 

Pheasant

Hall of Fame
I give Federer a 5% chance of beating Djoker today. If Federer shows up in good form, he has a slight chance.

Let's take a look at Federer vs Djoker since 2018:

2019 WI: Federer should have won this match. Federer broke Djoker 7 times, and Djoker broke Fed only 3 times. Federer scored 14 more points than Djoker. I've never heard of somebody out-breaking somebody 7-3, yet still losing. But that's what going 0-3 in tiebreakers will do. Quite honestly, I'm far more upset about Fed going 0-3 in tiebreakers than the blown 40-15. Federer was extremely competitive here. But he failed in the clutch department multiple times. And FYI, my takeaway here is 0-3 in tiebreakers, not 40-15.

2018 Paris SF: Federer wasn't broken the entire match while he broke Djoker once. However, Federer lost both tiebreakers here. Federer was definitely in this match as well. Federer played really well. But he still couldn't out-clutch Djoker when it counted. Fed was 0-2 in tiebreakers in this match.

2018 Cincy: A horrendous version of Federer showed up here. An extemely rusty Stan should have won against Fed. He choked. An injured Goffin pushed Fed to a tiebreak, then retired in the 2nd set at 1-1. Thankfully, Djoker didn't play all that great in a 6-4, 6-4 win. Federer was absolutely horrendous this whole tourney. This version of Federer could show up today. If he does, then expect breadsticks.

Fed's loss of speed this year is accelerating. Federer looks extremely slow on the court. I really noticed that watching him play Thiem. And Fed no longer has a cannon forehand to slug the younger players off of the court, which is why we see Federer losing more than he wins against guys like Zverev and Thiem.

Federer will need to serve like a boss while being extremely clutch against Djoker to have a chance.
 

HBK4life

Rookie
Novack in straights. I wish it weren’t that way but it is. Novack and Nadal are the guys. In wrestling terms Fed is Tito Santana. He beats 99% of the guys below him and can get a big win on occasion. But he is really there to make the star look good.
 

Feather

Legend
I give Federer a 5% chance of beating Djoker today. If Federer shows up in good form, he has a slight chance.

Let's take a look at Federer vs Djoker since 2018:

2019 WI: Federer should have won this match. Federer broke Djoker 7 times, and Djoker broke Fed only 3 times. Federer scored 14 more points than Djoker. I've never heard of somebody out-breaking somebody 7-3, yet still losing. But that's what going 0-3 in tiebreakers will do. Quite honestly, I'm far more upset about Fed going 0-3 in tiebreakers than the blown 40-15. Federer was extremely competitive here. But he failed in the clutch department multiple times. And FYI, my takeaway here is 0-3 in tiebreakers, not 40-15.

2018 Paris SF: Federer wasn't broken the entire match while he broke Djoker once. However, Federer lost both tiebreakers here. Federer was definitely in this match as well. Federer played really well. But he still couldn't out-clutch Djoker when it counted. Fed was 0-2 in tiebreakers in this match.

2018 Cincy: A horrendous version of Federer showed up here. An extemely rusty Stan should have won against Fed. He choked. An injured Goffin pushed Fed to a tiebreak, then retired in the 2nd set at 1-1. Thankfully, Djoker didn't play all that great in a 6-4, 6-4 win. Federer was absolutely horrendous this whole tourney. This version of Federer could show up today. If he does, then expect breadsticks.

Fed's loss of speed this year is accelerating. Federer looks extremely slow on the court. I really noticed that watching him play Thiem. And Fed no longer has a cannon forehand to slug the younger players off of the court, which is why we see Federer losing more than he wins against guys like Zverev and Thiem.

Federer will need to serve like a boss while being extremely clutch against Djoker to have a chance.

I give Roger Federer 30 percent chance of win. I feel five percent is too less..
 

BeatlesFan

Talk Tennis Guru
I give Federer a 5% chance of beating Djoker today.... Federer will need to serve like a boss
5% is way too small, make it 25% to be more realistic. Someone like Ryan Harrison has a 5% chance of beating Djokovic, Fed is considerably more accomplished, to put it mildly.

Federer has been serving excruciatingly badly here this week. His first serve speed is oftentimes 110 MPH, which is a sitting duck for anyone, especially Djokovic. Annacone was puzzled why the serve has been so slow and predictable this event. If Fed serves well, all bets are off.
 
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megamind

Hall of Fame
5% is way too small, make it 25% to be more realistic. Someone like Ryan Harrison has a 5% chance of beating Djokovic, Fed is considerably more accomplished, to put it mildly.

Federer has been serving excruciatingly badly here this week. His first serve speed is oftentimes 110 MPH, which is a sitting duck for anyone, especially Djokovic. Annacone was puzzled why the serve has been so slow and predictable this event.
I disagree

Ryan Harrison has a 2% chance of beating Djokovic, 5% is too much
 
I give Federer a 5% chance of beating Djoker today. If Federer shows up in good form, he has a slight chance.

Let's take a look at Federer vs Djoker since 2018:

2019 WI: Federer should have won this match. Federer broke Djoker 7 times, and Djoker broke Fed only 3 times. Federer scored 14 more points than Djoker. I've never heard of somebody out-breaking somebody 7-3, yet still losing. But that's what going 0-3 in tiebreakers will do. Quite honestly, I'm far more upset about Fed going 0-3 in tiebreakers than the blown 40-15. Federer was extremely competitive here. But he failed in the clutch department multiple times. And FYI, my takeaway here is 0-3 in tiebreakers, not 40-15.

2018 Paris SF: Federer wasn't broken the entire match while he broke Djoker once. However, Federer lost both tiebreakers here. Federer was definitely in this match as well. Federer played really well. But he still couldn't out-clutch Djoker when it counted. Fed was 0-2 in tiebreakers in this match.

2018 Cincy: A horrendous version of Federer showed up here. An extemely rusty Stan should have won against Fed. He choked. An injured Goffin pushed Fed to a tiebreak, then retired in the 2nd set at 1-1. Thankfully, Djoker didn't play all that great in a 6-4, 6-4 win. Federer was absolutely horrendous this whole tourney. This version of Federer could show up today. If he does, then expect breadsticks.

Fed's loss of speed this year is accelerating. Federer looks extremely slow on the court. I really noticed that watching him play Thiem. And Fed no longer has a cannon forehand to slug the younger players off of the court, which is why we see Federer losing more than he wins against guys like Zverev and Thiem.

Federer will need to serve like a boss while being extremely clutch against Djoker to have a chance.
And slice extremely well, imo.
 

Yugram

Hall of Fame
@Yugram What do you think about Nadal's position?
The chances that he makes it through RR are around 20-25% tomorrow, so not that great for us. But if we try to find something positive, then oh well, do we really want him to face Djokovic on this tournament, in this form? Rhetorical question, no?

So I guess all what’s left is to take additional 200 points, hope someone beats Djokovic and enjoy the rest till AO.
 

Born_to_slice

Hall of Fame
No worries, Djoker is a man of steel. In the USO 2015 final, Novak managed to win despite massive pro-Fed support. And this gave rise to this excellent reaction:
I remember that but I think it's harder for him to endure crowd unfairness these days. Makes matches worse too. Just unhealthy atmosphere.
 
The chances that he makes it through RR are around 20-25% tomorrow, so not that great for us. But if we try to find something positive, then oh well, do we really want him to face Djokovic on this tournament, in this form? Rhetorical question, no?

So I guess all what’s left is to take additional 200 points, hope someone beats Djokovic and enjoy the rest till AO.
If only Zverev could beat Tsitsipas. It would be a different story. I don't think anybody is beating Djokovic here. He gets the YE#1 as a gift.
 

Pheasant

Hall of Fame
5% is way too small, make it 25% to be more realistic. Someone like Ryan Harrison has a 5% chance of beating Djokovic, Fed is considerably more accomplished, to put it mildly.

Federer has been serving excruciatingly badly here this week. His first serve speed is oftentimes 110 MPH, which is a sitting duck for anyone, especially Djokovic. Annacone was puzzled why the serve has been so slow and predictable this event.
You are probably right. But right now, this feels like when Lendl beat old man Connors the last 14 times that they played(or was it 17; I forget now). When watching Connors play Lendl, I felt like Connors didn't have a chance once 1985 rolled around. By then, Jimmy was 32-33 years old and was far too slow to hang with an ATG like Lendl. This version of Fed feels the same way. But I really hope that I am wrong.

I think that Fed's back is flaring up. His serves are indeed horrendous and his movement has been bad as well.
 

tudwell

Legend
If only Zverev could beat Tsitsipas. It would be a different story. I don't think anybody is beating Djokovic here. He gets the YE#1 as a gift.
How is it a gift? He still has to win his remaining matches. And if he does, he’ll have 6 titles to Nadal’s 4, and 5 “big” titles to Nadal’s 4. More match wins on the season, more finals, etc. It would be a deserving number one, would it not?
 

Service Ace

Hall of Fame
Worse players than Fed have beaten Djokovic this year. So it's any given day really. I mean Djokovic doesn't have many bad days, but when he does, you see upsets like Sam Querrey, Jiri Vesely, Marco Ceccinato, Dominic Thiem, Denis Istomin, etc.
Yeah, right. This completely ignores the fact that matchups matter. Fed isn't some random journeyman or next gen mug who gets hot every couple months, he's a former champion with a tragic history and a poor mental matchup going against the only ghost to haunt him more than Nadal. Djokovic/Fed is the ATPs version of Serena/Sharapova, the outcome no longer in doubt.
 
How is it a gift? He still has to win his remaining matches. And if he does, he’ll have 6 titles to Nadal’s 4, and 5 “big” titles to Nadal’s 4. More match wins on the season, more finals, etc. It would be a deserving number one, would it not?
Their seasons were close. But as always Djokovic takes the advantage of being a better player in the fall season.
 

tudwell

Legend
Their seasons were close. But as always Djokovic takes the advantage of being a better player in the fall season.
Of course they were close. Nadal can still finish number one here, even if he gets obliterated by Tsitsipas. I’d say he’s in a pretty good position, all things considered.

And knowing how good Djokovic is or can be in the fall, Nadal should have accumulated more points earlier in the year to make up for it. I don’t see why Djokovic being dominant in the fall makes his year any less impressive. There’s no “gifting” involved. Whoever ends up number one will have deserved it by earning it throughout the year, not this one tournament.
 

TennisFan3

Legend
5% is way too small, make it 25% to be more realistic. Someone like Ryan Harrison has a 5% chance of beating Djokovic, Fed is considerably more accomplished, to put it mildly.

Federer has been serving excruciatingly badly here this week. His first serve speed is oftentimes 110 MPH, which is a sitting duck for anyone, especially Djokovic. Annacone was puzzled why the serve has been so slow and predictable this event.
I agree. Djokovic is definitely the favorite. But this in an indoor court and Fed's a better indoor player than Djokovic, so Fed definitely has a chance.
However since Fed's not looked great in his matches so far (not anywhere close to his Wimbledon level) - the chances of him winning are less than 50% - maybe between 30 and 40%.
 

FRV2

Hall of Fame
I thought I wouldn't spend money on tennis tv again, but gosh darn it, this match is worth it!

*Looks to find $3.28 left in bank account*

Do I give up some crypto for this match?:eek:
 

jm1980

G.O.A.T.
With everything on the line, what will Novak do? Will he rise to the occasion or crap the bed against the old man?
 

Goof

Semi-Pro
Fingers crossed for a Federer win. I'm not sure Nadal will get to the semi's even with a win tomorrow, so a Nadal fan like myself needs some help.
 
Of course they were close. Nadal can still finish number one here, even if he gets obliterated by Tsitsipas. I’d say he’s in a pretty good position, all things considered.

And knowing how good Djokovic is or can be in the fall, Nadal should have accumulated more points earlier in the year to make up for it. I don’t see why Djokovic being dominant in the fall makes his year any less impressive. There’s no “gifting” involved. Whoever ends up number one will have deserved it by earning it throughout the year, not this one tournament.
Yes, Nadal has only himself to blame. He had a terrible clay season by his standards. Losing Monte Carlo with only Fognini and Lajovic remaining in the draw was horrible. He found exactly "the right time" to show his worst clay tennis in 14 years. If he took these 640 points then his yesterday's win over Medvedev would give him the YE#1. But he messed it up.
 

FRV2

Hall of Fame
Yes, Nadal has only himself to blame. He had a terrible clay season by his standards. Losing Monte Carlo with only Fognini and Lajovic remaining in the draw was horrible. He found exactly "the right time" to show his worst clay tennis in 14 years. If he took these 640 points then his yesterday's win over Medvedev would give him the YE#1. But he messed it up.
The man won 2 GSs. I'd say he had a pretty good year regardless of his ranking. I doubt he's thinking about this too much.
 

FRV2

Hall of Fame
I am at a crossroads. Federer is my favorite, Djokovic is my 2nd favorite, and I really dislike Nadal (as a player). I think I'm going to root for Federer.
 

tudwell

Legend
Yes, Nadal has only himself to blame. He had a terrible clay season by his standards. Losing Monte Carlo with only Fognini and Lajovic remaining in the draw was horrible. He found exactly "the right time" to show his worst clay tennis in 14 years. If he took these 640 points then his yesterday's win over Medvedev would give him the YE#1. But he messed it up.
True. On the flip side, if Novak stumbles here, he’ll rue his poor performance in three of his best events: Indian Wells, Miami, and the WTF. They’ve both had some missed opportunities this year.
 

FRV2

Hall of Fame
True. On the flip side, if Novak stumbles here, he’ll rue his poor performance in three of his best events: Indian Wells, Miami, and the WTF. They’ve both had some missed opportunities this year.
You can't be cereal right now. You two are literally talking about the two players who split the Grand Slams as having "missed opportunities"?!?!?!
 
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