2019 ATP Miami 4R - [1] Novak Djokovic vs. [22] Roberto Bautista Agut
- Thread starter Enceladus
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CentreCourt
Rookie
Fairly confident predicting he won't be world no 1 by the time London comes around. Federer will even overtake him in the Race to London if he wins this tournament and he's been garbage.
Tanking in the Masters events might seem like what he's doing and it might seem like a good strategy, even. But it isn't what he's doing and it's not a good strategy. You can only raise your game to high energy levels if you have it in the locker - throwing away these events would have the opposite effect. He doesn't have to enter them, so why would he do so only to lose? His game has gone, like it seems to have done any other time he's put a run of slams together.
I have a feeling Federer will get his chance to take #1 once again some time between Wimbledon and the next Australian Open. Maybe he doesn’t even need to win a Slam if he takes all other tournaments seriously.
Sartorius
Hall of Fame
stringertom
Bionic Poster
Tick tock, he’ll be 32 for his next shot of Slamovic to see if these slumps are just for the “minors.”
Im(moral) Winner
G.O.A.T.
In both of his final losses he played without much fight despite (big) titles being involved (and the chance of equaling Roger at the YEC) so I'm not surprised the same happening in IW & Miami despite happening in the earlier stages.
MeatTornado
Talk Tennis Guru
Fed won't end the year #1, Novak will easily pass him during the clay season. And Rafa's missing too much time as well. Zverev actually would've had a better chance with all the tournaments he enters, except he's been terrible.
I can't see Novak not finishing the year #1.
O
OhYes
Guest
Genius has spoken again.
NoleFam
Bionic Poster
Yea there is zero pressure and it really showed. Usually he is amped because he has 2000 points to defend this time of year and in both tournaments this time he looked pretty listless. He started out well today and I thought he meant business and then the wheels came off and he never looked at the level again today. Yea you're right he's safe now but I guess I am just thinking ahead months down the road.
Steve0904
Talk Tennis Guru
I guess nobody knows until the slams come around how much harder Novak will be to beat because so far he's found the extra gear even besides the fact that it's BO5, but honestly, this is how it starts. I know this might sound like wishful thinking or whatever you want to call it, coming from a Federer fan and all, but from my own experience this is how it started for Federer. The more people that beat you in the Masters and the smaller events the less feared you become. The locker room is watching at all times. And they start stepping out on court believing they can beat you.
Medvedev said it at the AO. Now he didn't win, but he basically said yeah he's good, but he's not as good as he used to be, and Medvedev might've won the set he did because he had that attitude.
I'm not marking Djoker's demise here let's be clear. He'll be fine in the long run, but I do wonder where the motivation comes from now as far as slams go. 2018 was the comeback tour that proved he wasn't done, and he wanted so badly to prove that. Then it carried over into the USO, and he won the AO on his best surface. Great wins all, but I wonder if another NCYGS will be enough to motivate him or the slam race is enough to motivate him. Both things I'm not entirely convinced of since Djokovic himself knows how far away 5 slams actually is, and he has won RG before so it's not like he's going for the career slam.
And the main reason I say that I'm not sure the slam race entirely motivates Novak is because of what happened after RG 2016 when everybody including myself thought that the slam race would actually motivate him, but it didn't.
At any rate, I guess we'll see on the clay, but I don't like the look of unmotivated Novak right now, though to be fair, I wouldn't be smashing the panic button.
Just my 2 cents.
Medvedev said it at the AO. Now he didn't win, but he basically said yeah he's good, but he's not as good as he used to be, and Medvedev might've won the set he did because he had that attitude.
I'm not marking Djoker's demise here let's be clear. He'll be fine in the long run, but I do wonder where the motivation comes from now as far as slams go. 2018 was the comeback tour that proved he wasn't done, and he wanted so badly to prove that. Then it carried over into the USO, and he won the AO on his best surface. Great wins all, but I wonder if another NCYGS will be enough to motivate him or the slam race is enough to motivate him. Both things I'm not entirely convinced of since Djokovic himself knows how far away 5 slams actually is, and he has won RG before so it's not like he's going for the career slam.
And the main reason I say that I'm not sure the slam race entirely motivates Novak is because of what happened after RG 2016 when everybody including myself thought that the slam race would actually motivate him, but it didn't.
At any rate, I guess we'll see on the clay, but I don't like the look of unmotivated Novak right now, though to be fair, I wouldn't be smashing the panic button.
Just my 2 cents.
NoleFam
Bionic Poster
Dude is an attention seeker and clown, and hates that he will never be on the level of Novak or Rafa. It's pretty obvious and pathetic really.
I Am Finnish
Bionic Poster
Tennisgods
Hall of Fame
That could be true. Still, not making quarters at either Sunshine Masters...that’s unexpected for a guy that likes to dominate the tour.
Still, opens the door for some fresh blood to make progress.
NoleFam
Bionic Poster
Ok you are not surprised but we are. Lol. Let's move on.
Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil
Talk Tennis Guru
Probably tweeted that while he was flipping his bottles and arguing with yet another umpire.
mike danny
Bionic Poster
Fedr needs to use this opportunity to kickstart his career. He seems the most talented among the Next Gen.
Nostradamus
Bionic Poster
He lost today cause I tweeted to novak that he wins too much, and he listened to me. I will also tell him he needs to lose French open and Wimbledon so Rafa and Roger can win one major this year
TripleATeam
G.O.A.T.
Or maybe you've used up your influence for the year. (Hopefully)
I Am Finnish
Bionic Poster
He needs gurufils
I Am Finnish
Bionic Poster
TennisLBC
Professional
You just want to see my cry!
Krish872007
Talk Tennis Guru
Don't think there's any credible threat for the #1 spot until at least Wimbledon. Novak sits on 11,070 pts after this tournament. I think he has just under 900 pts to defend through the clay season, which he should surely be able to match at the very minimum. If he's really focusing on Slams then a SF at RG will basically get him there on its own
Nadl - currently on 8,725. Defending a titanic 4,680 pts through the clay season. Even if he defends all of that there's not really any room to gain, and I think it's actually mathematically impossible for him to become #1 in this period.
Zverev - defends over 2,300 pts on the clay and sits at 6,040. Knowing him he's way too inconsistent to suddenly start dominating.
If Thiem had actually gone deep in Miami things could have potentially gotten interesting - e.g. Sunshine Double type result. Which only leaves the Old Man, and his challenge depends on the Miami result. If he somehow wins this he goes to 5,590. With nothing at all to defend on clay, maybe see if he can scoop 1,000 pts in total and then set up for another run on grass.
Wander
Hall of Fame
If you actually read the posts, the consensus is that this tournament is now pretty open and up for grabs.
Nostradamus
Bionic Poster
Novak should play his best til US open. RAFA has to win French this year or we are at risk of him retiring with all the injuries going on. and roger has to win Wimbledon so he can put his major record out of reach
Krish872007
Talk Tennis Guru
Svitolina is the real Guru behind the Guru. Monfils has played some pretty inspired tennis at times this season already
Tennisgods
Hall of Fame
Agree on your thinking re: Novak, but Roger will never be world number 1 again, ever. Let’s just get that out of the way right now...
I Am Finnish
Bionic Poster
And both are injuried now
The Green Mile
Bionic Poster
Seems there's a Kyrgios tweet every other match now lol. He was right about the short ball struggles though, as seen today
TennisFan3
Talk Tennis Guru
I think it's a great post overall. But I really sense that as a Fed fan, you're HOPING That Novak doesn't win more slams. So this post seems to be more of a wishful thinking. (I don't mean this in an unkind fashion).
The problem is that if Novak wins 2 (or more) of the remaining 3 slams this year, he would be very likely to get the slam record before he retires. In fact, many people might start calling him GOAT even earlier.
You're comparing Fed's decline to Novak's. Novak is the champion at 3 consecutive slams and hasn't EVEN lost a set in the final of these 3 slams. That's an insane record.
No one can challenge Novak at the slams. Not Fed. Not Nadal. Not Delpo. They didn't even win a set.
In Fed's time. he would still lose to Nadal or be pushed hard in slams. He was pushed by Nadal as early as 2006/2007. Novak just seems unbeatable. As he gets closer to the business end of the slams he even stops losing sets.
I'm not saying Novak is as good as peak Fed. I'm just saying the field is weak. We have a grandpa Fed. A crippled Nadal. And a useless next gen. That's about it.
So I won't pencil in Novak's decline until we see him losing in slams. Last time I checked that was almost a year ago. At this time, he's the undisputed #1 and favorite at all slams. And IMO a very real threat to Fed's slam record and the putative GOAT title.
I Am Finnish
Bionic Poster
Well he gained 115 points
Good 4 weeks compare to last year
Good 4 weeks compare to last year
I Am Finnish
Bionic Poster
Djokovic peaked too early
Steve0904
Talk Tennis Guru
Understand where you're coming from. I get it, but I think the no one can challenge Novak at slams narrative isn't exactly true. Yes, he's won the last 3 and played very well in all of them, but that was kind of the point of my other post. I'm wondering how long that lasts because I'm wondering where the motivation comes from. The way you sound here, meaning no offence of course, is like you think Novak will win the CYGS because no one can challenge him, but it might not be the top players that beat him as we witnessed during his first fall.
The smart money is on Novak not winning the CYGS, and tbh the smart money is probably on 2 slams or less even in this field. Now if he wins 3 slams this year, all power to him, I'm simply saying it's probably not a smart bet right now. My guess (and I could be wrong as I have been many times before) is 1 more slam for Novak this year, either at RG or the USO.
Maybe a better time for my above post is after he actually loses at a slam, whenever that may be. So again, I understand where you're coming from, fair enough.
stringertom
Bionic Poster
TennisFan3
Talk Tennis Guru
I agree once again. If I were a betting man, I would bet against Novak winning CYGS. There is a reason it hasn't been done since Laver did it. It's a very hard thing to do obviously.
And yes, he might not even get 2 slams this year, because there have been few years with one player winning 3 slams in a year.
Still, it is my opinion, that we cannot expect his decline until we see it. I think both of us are speculating at this point. You might be 100% right and this might be the descent for Novak. But you might be wrong as well, if Novak ends up winning one (or both) F.O and Wimbledon. Let's just see.
All in all, I just think that early losses in the Sunshine double shouldn't change much w.r,t Novak's chances at the slams - even at the F.O. I think people are under-estimating the psychological impact of the straight set drubbing that Novak gave to Nadal at the AO. Basically that match eliminates Nadal as a rival for Novak in general.
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Pheasant
Legend
Djoker to me looked bored out there. Seriously. I didn’t see any fist pumps, waving to the crowd, or screams from him. Djoker lacked his top gear. Djoker had the most insane running forehand shot that I have ever seen him make. Agut actually clapped afterwards. But Djoker, who would normally engage the crowd after an insane shot like that, looked indifferent.
Perhaps Djoker doesn’t get the buzz from these types of tourneys anymore.
Slams will bring out Djoker’s inner beast. At the AO, he was absolutely insane. He won the semi allowing only 4 games, then completely destroyed the spirit of Nadal to wrap up his 3rd straight slam.
I don’t think think that Djoker can help it. These best of 3 matches don’t get him excited. Slams; especially the pursuit of #21, is what motivates this beast.
Perhaps Djoker doesn’t get the buzz from these types of tourneys anymore.
Slams will bring out Djoker’s inner beast. At the AO, he was absolutely insane. He won the semi allowing only 4 games, then completely destroyed the spirit of Nadal to wrap up his 3rd straight slam.
I don’t think think that Djoker can help it. These best of 3 matches don’t get him excited. Slams; especially the pursuit of #21, is what motivates this beast.
abmk
Bionic Poster
I LoLed :d
Steve0904
Talk Tennis Guru
Yeah I guess my post is probably a little too early, and could definitely be interpreted as a knee jerk or jumping the gun so to speak. Just trying to predict the future and probably failing horribly.
I Am Finnish
Bionic Poster
Djokovic has declined on slow hc's?
I Am Finnish
Bionic Poster
best meme so far
TennisFan3
Talk Tennis Guru
Yeah I guess my post is probably a little too early, and could definitely be interpreted as a knee jerk or jumping the gun so to speak. Just trying to predict the future and probably failing horribly.
Or you might be right. And then at the end of the UsOpen if Novak hasn't done much, everyone will be quoting your post as prescient.
Edhead-Fedhead
Hall of Fame
I'd sure love that, and I hope you're right! But, he's still over 6000 pts behind.... that's a lot to make up!
Steve0904
Talk Tennis Guru
What can I say? I want to be the new @Checkmate.
Really though, I only said it because it's been on my mind for a while when I watch Djokovic lately. I'd obviously like some new blood to step up and deny Djoker the slam record while winning slams of their own, but if he's good enough to take it then all I can say is congrats to him. Of course, I'll cheer for Fed until he retires, but new winners are welcome. And what I'd really like to see, especially in the case of Djokovic and Nadal (because I don't know how much longer Federer will play) is if/when we finally do get a new slam champion and they get on a roll, whether Djokovic or Nadal can stop them after they have that confidence.
CentreCourt
Rookie
I don't think Fed will either, I'm making the point that Novak has lost so much ground that a poor Fed will be ahead of him in the yearly standings. Nadal will be number one at the end of the year.
nounforcederrors
Hall of Fame
I agree with your prediction that Nadal will be number one at the end of the year. Careful as Fed is in his dietary, exercise & rest regimen to protect his body, his age is slowly catching up with him; Djokovic's recurring homesickness and respiratory problems rise up often enough to be a problem, and he does look bored much of the time. Nadal is still a fierce, dedicated tornado. And who else is even close? Tsitsipas isn't quite ready yet.
oldmanfan
Legend
You may well be right, but...
After WB16, Fedr looked even less likely than now to ever be close to #1 again, yet he swapped #1's with Rafa 3x, on all surfaces (after hc Rotterdam18, after clay Madrid18 (?), and after grass Stuttgart18). I got lucky here, but mid-way thru IW19, I had a sneaky feeling Fedr might get #1 some time this year. In that sense, the IW19 finals loss hurt his chances quite a bit. But he's playing some clay this year, and it'll be close if Fedr can get #1 back this year.
*fingers crossed*
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