2019 Australian Open - Men's Singles - Discussion Thread

Who will win AO?

  • Novak Djokovic

    Votes: 54 39.7%
  • Roger Federer

    Votes: 29 21.3%
  • Alexander Zverev

    Votes: 4 2.9%
  • Dominic Thiem

    Votes: 4 2.9%
  • Rafael Nadal

    Votes: 21 15.4%
  • Stan Wawrinka

    Votes: 4 2.9%
  • Andy Murray

    Votes: 8 5.9%
  • Kei Nishikori

    Votes: 2 1.5%
  • Karen Khachanov

    Votes: 3 2.2%
  • Other

    Votes: 7 5.1%

  • Total voters
    136

uscwang

Hall of Fame
Even if this miracle occurs, endless posters here would claim one of the following:

1. Nadal was injured
2. Djoker was injured (possibly on life support)
3. Fed had "preferential scheduling"
4. Unfair because Djoker played in the heat while Fed didn't
5. "Weak era"
6. AO organizers cheating for Fed
7. Fed on PED's "and it's like so obvious!"
8. Blah, blah, blah
9. Federer took too many off-court MTOs.
 
As a Federer fan, I’d love for him to be in it to win again. Realistically, though I think that he will not. He has a tough draw and would have to beat both Nadal and Djokovic to win it. If Federer can’t do it, I would love to see one of the new guys step up and take it. A new grand slam winner would be an injection of excitement into the tennis season. It would create so much buzz for the rest of the year. Much as I have loved watching the big 3 over the years, it’s time for a new name to go on to the trophy.
yep, admittedly I'm a selfish fed fan who would like him to continue winning slams as long as he can. if not, someone new.
 
I guess it's an interesting enough draw for fanbases to do the "Tougher Draw Dance".

Murray was the one to look out for, but in the end not sure if it matters that much sadly, it would surprising to see him last long here.

Djokovic's draw has some banana peels but his form should make him the actual tough draw for everyone else I reckon. Tsonga can perhaps summon some 2008 magic, and he may still end up losing. His R16 may also be Goffin, not Medvedev - which I think would be the more interesting match.
 
Anderson at 6/1 for most aces in the tournament seems a decent value (trails Isner, Raonic, and Kyrgios in this category). Though he doesn't have the highest ace rate of them, he has the best odds of going real deep of the serve bots. As an aside, I'll have a little chuckle among my salty tears if he beats Fed once more in the semi to make a third slam final. Not gonna happen, though. Not gonna happen. Given Nadal's recent non-completion history in hardcourt tournaments, Anderson to make the semi at 11/2 is a decent value as well.

Also tempting to lay Zverev winning the 2nd quarter, lol.

Great unknown: What on earth can Dimitrov do?
 

Red Rick

Talk Tennis Guru
Anderson at 6/1 for most aces in the tournament seems a decent value (trails Isner, Raonic, and Kyrgios in this category). Though he doesn't have the highest ace rate of them, he has the best odds of going real deep of the serve bots. As an aside, I'll have a little chuckle among my salty tears if he beats Fed once more in the semi to make a third slam final. Not gonna happen, though. Not gonna happen. Given Nadal's recent non-completion history in hardcourt tournaments, Anderson to make the semi at 11/2 is a decent value as well.

Also tempting to lay Zverev winning the 2nd quarter, lol.

Great unknown: What on earth can Dimitrov do?
Anderson bet is a nobrainer.

Although Isner playes frigging Opelka in round 1 and that might go like 5 tiebreaks and 80 aces per player. Anderson will probably win a few of them straight shet matches

Dimitrov could then make you lose money I guess? More like he loses to Isner cause neither breaks the other but Dimitrov breaks himself a number of times.

What were the odds against Zverev?
 
Anderson at 6/1 for most aces in the tournament seems a decent value (trails Isner, Raonic, and Kyrgios in this category). Though he doesn't have the highest ace rate of them, he has the best odds of going real deep of the serve bots. As an aside, I'll have a little chuckle among my salty tears if he beats Fed once more in the semi to make a third slam final. Not gonna happen, though. Not gonna happen. Given Nadal's recent non-completion history in hardcourt tournaments, Anderson to make the semi at 11/2 is a decent value as well.

Also tempting to lay Zverev winning the 2nd quarter, lol.

Great unknown: What on earth can Dimitrov do?
1st round is Raonic vs. Kyrgios! I think Rafa will finally win his second AO!
 
Anderson bet is a nobrainer.

Although Isner playes frigging Opelka in round 1 and that might go like 5 tiebreaks and 80 aces per player. Anderson will probably win a few of them straight shet matches

Dimitrov could then make you lose money I guess?
Ya, agreed, those other serve bots might end up in some long battles, which is a balancing factor. But then again, if they do early on, they'll likely not go deep at all. And Anderson is of course very capable of losing earlyish.
What were the odds against Zverev?
Does it even matter?

jk. He's 9/4 to win his quarter, so you can ballpark the value of laying him.

1st round is Raonic vs. Kyrgios! I think Rafa will finally win his second AO!
Yup! Though what are you referring to with Raonic and Kyrgios? That there'll be a lot of aces in their match? I think so too.

You really think Nadal is winning this one? Bold call, I'd say. He doesn't have the best fitness history in hard court tournaments in the last year or so, and the signs haven't been the best to start this season either.

New highs perhaps (I kinda like his draw), but one thing is certain: He will be afraid.
Agreed, I actually think he could surprise positively this time (touch wood!). I'd favor him against Isner in the third, and reckon he has a very fighting chance if he meets Anderson in the fourth.
 
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I like Dimitrov's chances of another semi-final run here. A lot of that will depend on how Rafa is playing, though. I'm expecting Grigor to be in the quarter-final, at least, which he should be if he's playing as sharply as he did in his first couple of matches in Brisbane.

Djokovic's draw looks tricky on paper. He's in for a tough second round match, whoever wins between Tsonga and Klizan. Third round should be easy enough, but Goffin or Medvedev could give him problems in the fourth.

If Djokovic has been stretched before the quarters, I think Kei has a shot at beating him. He's been playing great, and his section doesn't present too many roadblocks. Novak will still be the favourite should they play, though.

It's a big slam for Zverev. He needs to show that he's made progress and is ready to make the step up at Major level. Him, Coric and Raonic are the ones who I think are most likely to win the quarter, with Wawrinka, Thiem and Simon up next.

I'm not feeling good about Andy's comeback at the moment. RBA isn't a good draw. I just hope any retirement rumours aren't going to come true.

Federer has a couple of tricky players in his quarter. I think that Basilashvili and Khachanov are the ones with the best chance of doing some damage (and of course, a certain steam locomotive is also lurking in the draw).
 

Red Rick

Talk Tennis Guru
Ya, agreed, those other serve bots might end up in some long battles, which is a balancing factor. But then again, if they do early on, they'll likely not go deep at all. And Anderson is of course very capable of losing earlyish.

Does it even matter?

jk. He's 9/4 to win his quarter, so you can ballpark the value of laying him.


Yup! Though what are you referring to with Raonic and Kyrgios? That there'll be a lot of aces in their match? I think so too.

You really think Nadal is winning this one? Bold call, I'd say. He doesn't have the best fitness history in hard court tournaments in the last year or so, and the signs haven't been the best to start this season either.


Agreed, I actually think he could surprise positively this time (touch wood!). I'd favor him against Isner in the third, and reckon he has a very fighting chance if he meets Anderson in the fourth.
Words cannot describe the pain I feel when I see fractional odds.

Should be 1.8 if no juice.

Then again those lines have crazy juice
 
Words cannot describe the pain I feel when I see fractional odds.

Should be 1.8 if no juice.

Then again those lines have crazy juice
we're of like mind, much prefer decimal odds. Changed the settings to fractional cater to the masses.

Anyways, 9/4 = 3.25 (counterintuitive, I know), so the lay should be more like 1.44ish lay with no juice. Still totes worth it, though, hue hue.
 
Djoker's draw is no cakewalk. It's not disgustingly difficult, but he has a few possible landmines.
Still looking to find that one landmine in Djokos's quarter.

Hope Feds gets back some of 2017 form. Fed Tsitsipas is a lock and they are meeting for the first time. The young one may have a point or two to prove on the big stage.
 

Red Rick

Talk Tennis Guru
Still looking to find that one landmine in Djokos's quarter.

Hope Feds gets back some of 2017 form. Fed Tsitsipas is a lock and they are meeting for the first time. The young one may have a point or two to prove on the big stage.
I don't think there are landmines anywhere in the draw.

Tsitsipas is far from a lock, and Basilashvili might be the more dangerous and interesting opponent anyway.
 
If Djokovic has been stretched before the quarters, I think Kei has a shot at beating him... Novak will still be the favourite should they play, though.
I think this is an extremely sanguine view of things.

Djoker is 15-2 against Kei and has won the last 15 straight matches against him. Kei hasn't beaten him since 2014 and has been routinely bludgeoned by Novak in most of their matches since then. Kei rolls over like a sick possum whenever he sees Djoker on the other side of the net. Just last USO, he managed to win 9 games against Novak. There's no reason to expect him to put up any additional resistance if they meet at the AO. And there's at least a 50/50 chance Kei gets injured before their potential match.
 

Red Rick

Talk Tennis Guru
Excuse me, Tsitsipas had 6 Top 10 wins in 2018. What exactly did this Basilashvili do to get your attention?
Wacked Del Potro in Beijing, played Nadal really hard at the USO.

Tsitsipas is really easy to overrate cause 2 of the 4 top 10 matches he won in Toronto he won way less points than his opponents and was dominated pretty badly. The other wins were on clay, one of which was frigging Anderson.

Basilashvili has had much stronger results recently.
 
Wacked Del Potro in Beijing, played Nadal really hard at the USO.

Tsitsipas is really easy to overrate cause 2 of the 4 top 10 matches he won in Toronto he won way less points than his opponents and was dominated pretty badly. The other wins were on clay, one of which was frigging Anderson.

Basilashvili has had much stronger results recently.
Winning with less points is bad? If anything it shows the player didn't waste chances on the important points.

Frigging Anderson is touted as a tough draw. Can't have it both ways.

Basilashvili has not passed the 4R in his career. Some tough guy that.
 
I think this is an extremely sanguine view of things.

Djoker is 15-2 against Kei and has won the last 15 straight matches against him. Kei hasn't beaten him since 2014 and has been routinely bludgeoned by Novak in most of their matches since then. Kei rolls over like a sick possum whenever he sees Djoker on the other side of the net. Just last USO, he managed to win 9 games against Novak. There's no reason to expect him to put up any additional resistance if they meet at the AO. And there's at least a 50/50 chance Kei gets injured before their potential match.
I think there is reason to expect Kei to put up more resistance than the US Open semi: Novak hasn't been playing as well lately as he was in New York, and, in my opinion, Kei has been playing a little better than he was.

"There's at least a 50/50 chance Kei gets injured before any potential match" - Kei's been playing a full schedule for almost a year now, and I don't see any physical problems in his play. Of course there is a chance that old problems resurface, or a new one emerges, but there's no way it's at least a 50/50 chance.

All I said was that I thought Kei would have a shot at beating Djokovic should someone stretch Djokovic in the early rounds. I don't think that's some kind of pie-in-the-sky optimism.
 

Red Rick

Talk Tennis Guru
Winning with less points is bad? If anything it shows the player didn't waste chances on the important points.

Frigging Anderson is touted as a tough draw. Can't have it both ways.

Basilashvili has not passed the 4R in his career. Some tough guy that.
Neither has Tsitsipas.

Winning less points and winning matches, especially with a dominance ratio below 1.0 is definitely not as good as winning them with a DR of over 1.0, because it's simply not sustainable. You can't count on winning those matches, cause you'll lose them the majority of the time.

Tsitsipas had a DR of 0.8 vs Anderson and 0.9 vs Zverev are both matches he's gonna lose most of the time.

How do I want to have it both ways?
 

Red Rick

Talk Tennis Guru
I think there is reason to expect Kei to put up more resistance than the US Open semi: Novak hasn't been playing as well lately as he was in New York, and, in my opinion, Kei has been playing a little better than he was.

"There's at least a 50/50 chance Kei gets injured before any potential match" - Kei's been playing a full schedule for almost a year now, and I don't see any physical problems in his play. Of course there is a chance that old problems resurface, or a new one emerges, but there's no way it's at least a 50/50 chance.

All I said was that I thought Kei would have a shot at beating Djokovic should someone stretch Djokovic in the early rounds. I don't think that's some kind of pie-in-the-sky optimism.
Imagine Kei beats Djokovic, TTW will stop trolling him for as long as it takes him to lose another match to Nadal.
 
Aren't Dimi and Nadal seeded to meet in R4? I mean Edmund and Berdych are higher and probably easier for Rafa. But Dimi looks to be more likely to get there.
That would be brutal for Rafa if that happened. He's beaten Dimi before, but usually goes the distance. He runs and runs and runs some more.
Subsequently gets injured with all that defending.
 
Those assuming that Djokovic is going to just waltz to #7 haven't been paying attention lately. He has recent losses to Bautista Agut, Zverev, Khachanov. And not so long ago he was losing to Paire and Taro Daniel.

He's still frontrunner, but not a lock.
 
Those assuming that Djokovic is going to just waltz to #7 haven't been paying attention lately. He has recent losses to Bautista Agut, Zverev, Khachanov. And not so long ago he was losing to Paire and Taro Daniel.

He's still frontrunner, but not a lock.

To be fair, it was the end of the year, and he was making it pretty deep into nearly every tournament he entered. Now he's fresh.
 
Neither has Tsitsipas.

Winning less points and winning matches, especially with a dominance ratio below 1.0 is definitely not as good as winning them with a DR of over 1.0, because it's simply not sustainable. You can't count on winning those matches, cause you'll lose them the majority of the time.

Tsitsipas had a DR of 0.8 vs Anderson and 0.9 vs Zverev are both matches he's gonna lose most of the time.

How do I want to have it both ways?
Anderson has proved that he is something more than "frigging". So it takes some effort to beat him. Using Anderson to discount Tsitsipas and give Basilashvili the edge because of some DR issue is more lame.

If a player can win more matches with low DR, then he may be onto something.
 
Aren't Dimi and Nadal seeded to meet in R4? I mean Edmund and Berdych are higher and probably easier for Rafa. But Dimi looks to be more likely to get there.
That would be brutal for Rafa if that happened. He's beaten Dimi before, but usually goes the distance. He runs and runs and runs some more.
Subsequently gets injured with all that defending.
no, quarters
 
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uscwang

Hall of Fame
Those assuming that Djokovic is going to just waltz to #7 haven't been paying attention lately. He has recent losses to Bautista Agut, Zverev, Khachanov. And not so long ago he was losing to Paire and Taro Daniel.

He's still frontrunner, but not a lock.
I think your not forgetting his loss to Taro or whoever shows that you've forgotten the essence of ATP 2018.
 
I think your not forgetting his loss to Taro or whoever shows that you've forgotten the essence of ATP 2018.
What he is saying is true.Djokovic is the big favorite for AO 2019 but he is not guaranteed to win it.I remember some people putting Djokovic as the winner of the ATP Finals 2018 before the tournament even started and look what happened in the final.He have been the most in-form player since July of 2018 but this doesnt mean he is going to win every big tournament.
 
I think your not forgetting his loss to Taro or whoever shows that you've forgotten the essence of ATP 2018.
What "essence" have I forgotten? And why must I pretend that match didn't happen?

Djokovic 2018 is very similar to Federer 2017: impressive wins and also inexplicable losses. This is the nature of an aging ATG. You can recreate the magic but not consistently.

But don't let me get in the way of your fantasy that Nole will never lose again.
 
Those assuming that Djokovic is going to just waltz to #7 haven't been paying attention lately. He has recent losses to Bautista Agut, Zverev, Khachanov. And not so long ago he was losing to Paire and Taro Daniel.

He's still frontrunner, but not a lock.
Agreed. (y)

There were multiple matches that Djokovic could've lost (tight matches) or should've lost (opponents' tightness/choking while playing better), starting from WB18. He won those matches, but he won't always win them. Just look at his Doha2019 alone where he won 2 matches he should've lost (Fucsovics, Basilashvili was up a set) but lost the match he should've won (up a set and a break on RBA).

None is a lock for the finals. Djokovic and Federer are just the slight favorites.
 
Other than Nishikori Djokovic being pretty much a forgone conclusion, was the other potential QF any better? Cilic has a similar h2h as Nishikori but has no form coming in. Thiem hasn't done much outside clay against Djokovic and has no form as well coming in. Anderson hasn't beaten Djokovic in more than a decade and who has he beaten at hc slams so far.

Even though Kei is pretty much a guarantee win for Djokovic but he probably has the better chance though only slightly compared to the other 3 QF.

Compared to other combinations, Medvedev and Nishikori is probably the toughest draw based on the seeds for R16 and QF you could get at the moment
 
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